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Hurts has gone over this number 11 times in 20 games this season, and had two games where his longest rush was 11 yards. The 26-year-old is an elite athlete and I believe his running ability will be an X-Factor on Sunday.
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Hopkins has been an afterthought in the Chiefs postseason offense, but this number essentially amounts to one catch for the five-time All-Pro. I have Hopkins projected at 2 catches for 25 yards on Sunday.
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Hopkins' absurdly low snap count (12) in the AFC title game speaks to him falling out of favor with the Chiefs coaching staff. Even so, he remains their top jump-ball type threat in the red zone and, with 2 weeks to prepare, it would be difficult to envision a game plan that didn't involve the veteran WR getting some touches.
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This is the most basic meat-and-potatoes prop you can imagine. But the price makes it a bargain of sorts. For a generational talent looking at his 4th Super Bowl ring, 2 passing TDs feels like a floor. It took OT to hit last year, but Mahomes has clipped this mark in all of Kansas City's Super Bowl victories with him under center.
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This number has escalated, but the QB's combo line feels borderline game-script proof considering he can pick up the slack in either discipline according to the game situation. Expect Hurts to put up big numbers Sunday.
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The meager price on this prop sends trap-type alarms, but we're willing to lose this bet. You should be too. The dual-threat QB has multiple TDs in every playoff game and scored three times in the Super Bowl two seasons ago. The Eagles' steadfast dedication to the goal-line shove provides massive equity, and Hurts can score from outside the goal line as well.
I have this game going comfortably over for the full game (48.5), and I expect both teams to be in double-digits by half time. I expect the Chiefs to struggle to slow Philadelphia's rushing attack down, and Patrick Mahomes' Super Bowl dominance is well-documented. I see a halftime score in the 17-14 range here.
To be the man, you gotta beat the man. Eagles have my MVP (Saquon Barkley) and a feasting defense: best player, unit Chiefs face this season. Kansas City will be working against three-peat expectations. Chiefs have the best quarterback, coach and DC in the NFL. They match up well with Philadelphia, weakness being a still-solid OL. Eagles will have line-of-scrimmage advantages, but Chiefs DL will make some plays. Rushing defense should be shored up given extended practice. Philly has been the NFL's best team this season; KC the last six years. It will be close. No chance I'm ignoring Patrick Mahomes vs. top 10 defenses (4-0), Andy Reid with extra week of prep (33-7), Steve Spagnuolo ability to take apart talented QBs like Jalen Hurts.
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I think the Chiefs stopping the Bills' Tush Push is overblown. That wasn't the Tush Push. Allen takes a step back then goes to the left. No one is even pushing him. I have no idea what that was to be honest but it's not the same play the Eagles made famous. If the Eagles are inside the three-yard line, Hurts will get multiple chances to score. He's scored a rushing TD in 12 games this season. I think the odds for Hurts should be closer to -130, so I'll take -115 at FD.
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Ever since Dallas Goedert came back from injury he's been a feature part of the Eagles passing game. He's not just a dump-off tight end he is an integral part of what the Eagles game plan shows off. His last three games have gone over the total. His last game was the solid against Washington getting 85 yards. You get a couple of Saquon Barkley runs, then you get a Goedert pass, Barkley runs, and then hit AJ Brown for a long one. Goedert over yardage.
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This is a buy-low-sell-high situation for DeAndre Hopkins as he's gone under the total in his last six games and eight of nine. But his total has dropped from 51.5 on November 10th to 12.5 for the Super Bowl. They brought Hopkins in for his experience and skills and they’ll use it in his first big game. They've given his balls to Hollywood Brown to integrate him into the system but Hopkins isn't sitting the Super Bowl out. In fact, he's coming in dressed for success with the mink coat his dad bought him. He'll get over 12.5 yards.
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Darius Slay, 34, has had a fine season but he’s not playing as well as fellow outside corner Quinyon Mitchell. This postseason, the standout rookie has allowed five of 15 passes to be completed while intercepting two of them. I expect Patrick Mahomes to be throwing often and avoiding Mitchell when he can. I bet Slay to go Over on his solo tackles at plus money.
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Today’s Super Bowl is the ultimate matchup where the side is tough to take. In the prop market this could turn out to be an advantageous game on both sides. I’ll be eyeing DeVonta Smith who has a 100 percent target to reception rate in the postseason. A heightened game I expect Smith to get a few extra targets from quarterback Jalen Hurts as they have a long time connection from their college days. Play Smith over.
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FanDuel at -125. While Chris Jones only cleared this line in 6/15 in the regular season and 1/2 in the playoffs, this is a perfect matchup for him to rack up the tackles. The Eagles have allowed the most tackles to defensive lineman this season, mainly because no team as run the ball between the tackles more. At least two opposing interior lineman have cleared this line in each of the last eight full games from Jalen Hurts.
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Kareem Hunt has embraced the increased workload given Pacheco's ineffectiveness since returning from injury. However, Hunt's efficiency numbers leave a lot to be desired and in this particular match-up he should find it tough sledding between the tackles. Given Hunt's inability to rip off explosives even if he exceeds his attempt number at 10.5 today there's a path where he doesn't eclipse 40+ rushing yards.
The question for us in the Super is if the presence of Saquon Barkley on the Eagles' side simply distorts the field too much in Philly's favor. Barkley's explosive runs have changed the course of several games this season and forced opponents to re-think how to slow the Eagles attack after a year ago mostly taking away the deep balls that Jalen Hurts used so effectively in 2022. IN the end, the Chiefs' uncanny knack to win close games (nine straight wins in one-score games) and the presence of Patrick Mahomes compels us to side with Kansas City as it goes for an unprecedented third straight title in the Super Bowl era. Play Chiefs on ML
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A look at Dallas Goedert's stats this season hardly seem out of ordinary, except considering that he missed nearly half of the season. In that context, 42 catches from a tight end don't seem all that bad, and worth noting that Goedert has been the number one target of Jalen Hurts across the entirety of these playoffs. Goedert is also capable of the big play, as was that clutch 61-yard completion from Hurts in the last minute to set up the deciding TD in a 12-7 Philly win over the Saints in arguably the Eagles' play of the year. Goedert to at least reach 50 receiving yards seems a good idea. Play Dallas Goedert Over 49.5 yards
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The Chiefs have used Xavier Worthy in creative ways this season and given him 20 rushing carries in the regular season and three rushing carries in the postseason. Worthy had 16 rushing yards on two carries against the Bills in the Conference Championship. I expect the Chiefs to get creative against this tough Eagles defense. This is a low line for this speedster to clear on Sunday.
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Saquon Barkley is Offensive Player of the Year after an insanely great season for the Eagles. I believe Barkley (on his birthday) will be a difference-maker for the Eagles in Super Bowl 59 and I want to find multiple angles to bet his props. I think the Eagles will find creative ways to get the ball in Barkley's hands, so I like betting he will clear his receiving line. Barkley cleared this line 37% of the time this season. But he cleared this line mostly in competitive games. We know Barkley is explosive, so he can do this on just a few receptions.
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Jalen Hurts already has four postseason rushing touchdowns, and I believe he'll add at least one more in Super Bowl 59. We know how often and how successful the Eagles' "Tush Push" has been with Hurts. In addition to Hurts' four rushing touchdowns, he has 14 regular season rushing touchdowns in 15 games started this season. I like this price for Hurts' Anytime Touchdown and I'll sprinkle on Hurts 2+ Anytime Touchdowns as well.
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When these teams met in Super Bowl LVII, Smith had 7 catches for 100 yards. A lot has changed since then, but Smith's explosiveness and big play ability remains in tact. The Eagles have a lot of mouths to feed on offense, but this is a spot where I expect Smith to thrive. I have him projected to finish with 70+ receiving yards.
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This price is far from ideal, but I feel confident that this bet will cash. In four Super Bowl appearances, Butker is 9 of 10 on field goal attempts. The Eagles have one of the NFL's best red zone defenses, and Butker is one of the best kickers of his era. The attempts should be there for this pick to hit.
The 49ers and Eagles had stronger rosters than the Chiefs during their last two Super Bowl victories. However, Andy Reid and his coaching staff possess strategic expertise that gives the Chiefs an advantage over the Eagles. Philadelphia faced only four teams ranked in the top 12 for defensive DVOA, and they have two rookie cornerbacks who will be tested in this matchup. This should be a highly competitive, one-score game. The Chiefs will have a quarterback and head coach entering the Hall of Fame five years after retirement. I picked Kansas City to win the Super Bowl in August and still believe in the Chiefs.
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I expect Barkley to be a difference maker in this spot, and I expect the Eagles to lean heavily on the 2024 NFL rushing champion. Barkley is a threat to rip off explosive runs every time he touches the ball, and I have him projected to finish with 23+ carries. If he hits that number, he should reach 110+ rushing yards on Sunday.
I predicted a 30-24 win for the Eagles in a score prediction article for SportsLine shortly after this matchup was set, and I'm sticking with it. The Eagles offense is loaded, and is quite frankly, a really bad matchup for Kansas City. The Chiefs have an outstanding defensive coaching staff, but the Eagles are balanced and explosive, and have one of the league's best offensive lines. On the other side, the Chiefs aren't as explosive as they have been in years past, but they can still score in bunches. In the end, I expect this point total to be north of 50 points.
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Harrison Butker is 4 for 4 this postseason, and the Chiefs trust him to try 50-plus yard field goals. KC also excels at getting into the red zone, while Vic Fangio's defense thrives at keeping teams out of the end zone. In this postseason (three games), Philly has allowed TDs on just 40 percent of red-zone trips. Look for Butker to be called on at least twice and for him to deliver.
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Isiah Pacheco is hurt. Hunt has the job. Over the last month, the only times Hunt has been under this number is when KC ran 47, 58 plays…which is significantly lower than projected in Super bowl 59. Play his over 10.5 carries.
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Dallas Goedert is quietly a very important piece of this Eagles' offense. He is a reliable middle of the field target for Jalen Hurts, and has a great matchup against a Chiefs team that was bottom-10 in defending opposing TE’s this season. Goedert soared over this number last round against Washington, going for 7 Rec/85 yards. In eight career playoff games, Goedert is averaging 64.4 receiving yards. I expect him to get 6-8 targets, which should be enough volume to clear this receiving yards total.
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The Chiefs are unlikely to find much success in their ground game. Vic Fangio's defense is designed to take away the big play and allow underneath completions. That fits what this Chiefs' offense does anyway. Look for Mahomes to potentially be in comeback mode and complete at least 24 passes Sunday.
The Eagles allowed the second fewest points per game during the regular season (17.8) and the Chiefs fourth fewest (19.2) PPG. I know we saw a track meet between these two teams in the Super Bowl a couple of years ago but I expect a much lower scoring, defensive battle this time around. Eagles 23, Chiefs 20.
Enough with the NFL conspiracy theories. The two best teams in the league this year are meeting for the championship. Philadelphia is 15-1 since it’s Week 5 bye, while Kansas City is 17-1 this season when Patrick Mahomes plays. I believe Saquon Barkley tops 100 yards rushing for the 13th time in his last 15 games and scores at least once. In a close game, Philadelphia captures their second Super Bowl title on a late Jake Elliott field goal and Barkley caps off his amazing season with an MVP award.
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The Eagles are 15-1 since their bye week and Jalen Hurts has played the full game (sans injury) in 13 of them. In those 13 games, the Eagles are undefeated and he has gone under this attempts total in 10 of them. This bet is out the window if Philadelphia is chasing points on Sunday, but I don't think that will be the case. Look for the Eagles to rely on Saquon Barkley, as well as Hurts' legs, and keep the passing attempts to 25 or less (if my game flow prediction is correct).
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This is my favorite prop on the board for the Super Bowl. Samaje Perine has at least one catch in 17 of 19 games and is over this receiving total in 16 of those 17 games. He has been mostly quiet in the playoffs, with the exception of the final play of the AFC Championship Game to seal Kansas City's victory. But I believe he'll play more snaps in what should be a close game on Sunday and be a weapon for the Chiefs out of the backfield. I would play this up to 10 yards, considering Perine has 15 games at or above that number.
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AJ Brown's going to be a big part of Sunday's game and he went over the yardage total his last game but five of his last seven games he stayed under. He's been a non-participant in the offense. No wonder why he's reading books on the sidelines. He's bored but he's ready for the Super Bowl and he's one of the main cogs in the box score in my mind that has the Eagles winning 38-24. Brown hits at least one long pass and likely scores but establishes he’s there to the Chiefs' defense. Over Brown's receiving yards.
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I'm playing Hopkins over 11.5 receiving yards here, as I have his median projection at 19 yards in this matchup. I expect Hopkins to still have a role in scripted drives and the red zone in Andy Reid's offense. He wasn't shy about chasing a ring with KC, and I believe the Chiefs will target him on a line he can eclipse with just one reception.
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Yup, it’s Saquon. And the public will love grabbing this. I’m going the other way. KC tackles VERY well in open field and second level and they allowed just one 30 yard run all year (Jerome Ford at the end of a blowout). If this goes up, I’ll play it again double.
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Patrick Mahomes went under pass attempts in his last two games but he was over pass attempts in his six previous starts. And in this game, he's going to pass a lot more because he’ll be in desperation mode. The Chiefs running game isn't that special either. He's going to have to manufacture scores and do it against the number one defense. The bet isn't completions but attempts. Over attempts for Mahomes in this game.
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Which way is the line going to go? It's been sitting on 1.5 or 1 and surprisingly the Chiefs were listed as the opening favorite. There's only been 15% of the bets taken in by Thursday. All the action comes in Friday, Saturday, and Sunday and the wise guy picking their side doesn't matter amid all this small money equaling larger bets than the wise guys. Jalen Hurts scored a touchdown in five of his last seven games and in one of the games he played only a portion of the first quarter. And it's not just the tush push he sometimes find the seam and takes off for the score. I take the yes prop on Hurts scoring a TD.
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I think the Eagles will be chasing this game and Andy Reid is constructing a game plan in which Hurts has to open up the pass game - and in more obvious passing situations - than anything Philly has done in a long time. I'm thinking some Hail Mary type stuff - maybe at the end of both halves - and also him getting some looks from Steve Spagnuolo that he hasn't seen before. Hurts has been incredibly careful with the ball, but he's also due for some regression in that regard (as Jayden Daniels about how that works). He's gone 7 full playoff games without throwing a pick, but has also never had to throw the ball 40+ times in a postseason game.
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Jones has had a very quiet postseason. Very unlike him. I don't hate his SB MVP odds if this becomes a defensive struggle and if the Eagles potential health issues in the interior of their offensive line become acute, this guy will feast. Dirty little secret - Eagles OL much better road grading than pass protecting. With two weeks to prepare Spags will have a plan and he can move this big body around and unleash some new wrinkles. He has 10 pressures in his last two Super Bowls and while it's tough to collapse the pocket inside and get sacks the Eagles having to reshuffle their line is a big deal, too.
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Kelce's had seven-plus grabs in two of his past three, but just eight times in 18 games. Frankly, I'm banking on the Eagles playing zone heavy defense that will leave Kelce open underneath for modest gains. And we know Kelce generally gets the ball a lot anyway, but when Mahomes has been pressured in his past five games, Kelce's led the Chiefs in target per route run rate at 21.6%. That's pretty good. The Eagles figure to bring plenty of pressure while also focusing on not letting up big plays, a good combination for Kelce. And the matchup's good -- Philly's allowed at least seven receptions to a tight end in each of its past two playoff games -- ever since Nakobe Dean got hurt.
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Smith's had exactly four receptions -- and four targets -- in each playoff game so far. He's also caught four or fewer passes in 9 of his past 13. I expect the Eagles to lean on the ground game here, especially with the Chiefs' run defense gashed in three straight games their starters have played in. And when they do throw, I'm nervous how often the ball will get to Smith. The Chiefs' pass rush is consistently one of the best in terms of pressure rate, and when Hurts has been pressured in his past three games, Smith's target per route run rate is a laughably low 2.9%! As long as Hurts is pressured on dropbacks, Smith figures to be limited.
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There's lots of consternation about the Chiefs uncertain RB situation and whom to ride and whom to fade. I tend to think Andy Reid is going to attack like mad with high-percentage passes, Pacheco hasn't looked right and Hunt is limited in the passing game. Perine is over this in 14 of the last 15 games. Wowsers. He has at least 13 receiving yards in 12 of the last 16 games. Eagles should be able to put heat on and get Chiefs in second-and-third-and-long more than enough to win this with a screen pass or two. Pass pro will be essential and I wouldn't be shocked if his role expands a tad here.
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This is the time of year when Mahomes will do anything to win, including use his legs. He's been over this in each of his past two games, and in 3 of 4 Super Bowls. And he'll have to run -- the Eagles typically play a lot of zone coverage and I suspect they'll keep that up here. They can also get pressure on the QB without blitzing, a key factor. Of Mahomes' 50 runs that weren't kneel-downs, 47 were off-schedule scrambles, and 34 of them were against zone coverage when a defense took downfield targets away. Tack on some kneel-downs and Mahomes should get on the record for six-plus rushes. I would be OK playing this up to -125, but no higher.
The Chiefs and Eagles were both under teams this year with the Chiefs going under 8-11 and the Eagles going 9-11. The Chiefs didn't go over 30 points regularly in the regular season but they did in the AFC Championship, 32-29. Patrick Mahomes likes to control the game with long drives taking about 9 minutes off the clock but he won't be in control. I think Mahomes will be chasing points, forcing him to pass more. They’ll be chasing Saquon Barkley all day. I have this Super Bowl image of Marcus Allen continually coming into my head and Barkley doing something similarly special. The Eagles also went over in the NFC Championship, 55-23.
Wish 22.5 was available as that I would likely play additional units on, but that we get an option still below the magic number of 24 is real nice -- although as you can see a bit juiced. The Eagles have scored fewer than 24 points just once in their past six in a game that mattered and obviously hung 35 on this defense two years ago. They aren't winning, in my opinion, scoring less than 24 and I tend to think they do win so ...
The Eagles have put it all together winning 14 of their last 15 games and the one they lost at Washington was when Jalen Hurts left up 21-7 in the first quarter. They ended up losing the game 36-33 with the backup quarterback. There's nothing like the Eagles in the NFL. The running game will keep Philly leading this game and that goes for the first half and several props geared towards a 38-24 Eagles win.
The Chiefs don't deserve to be the favorite in this game because the Eagles are better than they were two years ago in a loss to Kansas City in the Super Bowl. Saquon Barkley has taken the Eagles to a whole other level. He's the number one running back in football and scores just about every week. And the Eagles also have the number-one-rated defense in the NFL. The main question in this game is do the Chiefs have enough to help Mahomes win his third in a row and I don't think they do. They rank 16th best offense and they rank 9th on defense. Memories of a struggle against the Raiders and Panthers. This team is mediocre. Eagles.
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Worthy's speed is undeniable, and it makes perfect sense for Andy Reid to find creative ways to get the ball in his hands. That being said, Worthy totaled 6 or more receptions in only 4 of the 19 games he's played as a rookie. With Hollywood Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, DeAndre Hopkins, and Travis Kelce all healthy, it's hard for me to see Worthy going over 5.5 receptions in Super Bowl LIX.
Although one could argue that Eagles have the better man-for-man personnel, we believe the stronger argument lies with backing Kansas City. Fade QB Patrick Mahomes, coach Andy Reid and this dynastic Chiefs club at your own peril. They have a chance to make history with a Super Bowl repeat and the price will never get better for a club that has earned unfadeable status.
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Jalen Hurts rushed for three touchdowns in the NFC title game, and I like him to get at least one Sunday. He's scored in 12 of 18 games this season. I bet on the Eagles and think they'll score at least three touchdowns, with Hurts running one in from inside the 5.
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Mahomes ‘Over’ rush attempts has cashed for us in consecutive weeks, so let’s roll the dice on it again. This number is up from 4.5 to 5.5, but I still like Mahomes to clear it. His sneaky rushing ability always seems to come up clutch in Jan/Feb. Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio must scheme up a way to get pressure on Mahomes against KC’s beatable offensive line. I expect him to be flushed out of the pocket and take off several times. If Kansas City has the lead and the final possession, we can cash this prop with QB kneels as well. Back to the well we go.
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We faded this prop in the NFC Championship and it cashed for us, but I felt a bit fortunate to get away with the win as Hurts did not look as bad moving around as expected. With the extra week to rest, he should resume his regular role as a runner, which led to a 15-yard rush in five straight games before the NFC title game despite playing through an injury. Hurts has had a 12-yard rush in 13 of 18 games and an 11-yard rush in two others, so I like the value here at the FanDuel price.
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Jalen Hurts has had two weeks to get healthy for the Super Bowl, but even in the NFC Championship he was impactful as a rusher while scoring three touchdowns. He's scored in 12 of his 18 games played (leaving one of those very early due to injury), and he had just one fewer TD than Barkley in the regular season despite the huge gap between the pair in odds for this prop. With the Chiefs defense struggling against the run, this prop is mispriced.
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Isiah Pacheco finished well above this number in all seven career playoffs games prior to this season, but he's been a different back down the stretch and seen his snap percentage decline for four straight games. Maybe the extra week off and the all-or-nothing nature of the game will boost his usage, but his ineffectiveness on the ground plus the Chiefs interior getting weaker with Joe Thuney playing left tackle makes it hard for me to see Pacheco beating this number.
Kansas City and Philadelphia square off in the Super Bowl for the second time in three years. Despite Philly’s menacing ground attack and strength at the line of scrimmage on both sides, I feel that the Chiefs will find a way once again. Against Vic Fangio coached defenses (Broncos & Dolphins) Mahomes is 8-0 SU/6-2 ATS, with 10 TD/2 INT. When Mahomes has been listed as an underdog or a favorite of 3 or less, he is 28-9-1 ATS, and 9-2 ATS in the playoffs. This will be the fifth head coaching rematch in Super Bowl history. Coaches that won the first meeting are 4-0 SU in the sequel. I’m not betting against history. The Chiefs will become the first team to ever “Three-Peat.”
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Travis Kelce had a very quiet performance in the AFC Championship game but will likely bounce back in the Super Bowl. Andy Reid's masterclass in orchestrating the offense will be vital, especially with two weeks to prepare. Travis Kelce has scored 20 touchdowns in 24 career postseason games, including two in his last three Super Bowls. After failing to find the end zone in last year's Super Bowl, I expect him to score at least one touchdown in what could be the final game of his brilliant career. The plus money line is of tremendous value.
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Xavier Worthy has made a big impact and the rookie speedster has been Patrick Mahomes top target throughout the playoffs, in addition to the end of the regular season. I've been impressed with the way Kansas City has utilized Worthy and are manufacturing touches for the talented rookie. With that being said, this is a big number in what is certainly a difficult matchup. The Eagles have a strong claim as the best pass defense in the NFL and the advanced metrics reflect this. Philly is particularly adept at shutting down opposing outside WRs and I believe 6+ receptions is simply a big ask for Worthy.
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Dallas Goedert has been Jalen Hurts favorite and most reliable target throughout the playoffs. As a result, we're getting a big number considering that Goedert has failed to eclipse this line in 2/3 playoff games and 9/13 total games this season. Jalen Hurts has only attempted 69 passes through three playoff games (23 attempts per game). The Eagles want to run the football and limit Jalen's dropbacks and that simply isn't enough volume to sustain multiple receivers.
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Travis Kelce had a fairly quiet regular season (by his prolific standards), however I expect him to be heavily featured in the Super Bowl. The Eagles sport an elite pass defense, however Kelce is basically matchup proof and if the Eagles defense is vulnerable in one area, it is covering the middle of the field and their linebackers can be exploited in coverage. The Eagles do a terrific job of limiting opposing boundary receivers. Look for Kelce to be heavily utilized in what may be his final game if the Chiefs are able to win on Sunday.
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I rather like playing these unusual/seldom-used players/props in the Super Bowl each year. Xavier Worthy isn't seldom-used for the Chiefs as a wideout but will Andy Reid really call two jet sweeps/reverses for the speedster in the same game? Worthy did have two carries vs. Buffalo but has gone under this number in 11 of 18 total games (didn't play Week 18). Two years ago, Reid gave WR Skyy Moore one carry against the Eagles. And I do imagine Worthy gets one, but then it's not a surprise afterward. Some of his multi-carry games also came when KC was short-handed at running back.
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If Philly's Jahan Dotson gets a target much less a catch, something either went really wrong on Sunday for the Eagles or really, really right and that's why he's in there. In the past six games that have mattered for the Iggles, which excludes Week 18, Dotson has just one game with a catch and three total targets.
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Jalen Hurts looked much better as a passer in the NFC Championship, but it was only his second game with more than 18 completions since Week 3. Even if the Eagles get behind, I expect the game plan will be to feed Saquon Barkley behind their elite O-line against a Chiefs rush defense that has not performed well in recent weeks. Expect Hurts to pick his spots as a passer and tuck the ball to scramble plenty after two weeks of rest.
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Patrick Mahomes did not play at an MVP level for much of this season, including throwing picks in his first seven games. But since throwing two picks in the regular-season loss against the Bills, he's been interception-free in eight straight games. He's also only thrown interceptions in five of his 20 career playoff games, including just once in nine games over the last three years. The Eagles will likely need a lucky deflection to ruin this prop.
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The Eagles passing game finally got it together in the NFC Championship, and one of the big beneficiaries was Goedert even without being on the field as much as the two previous playoff games. Goedert's 85-yard day could be replicated or even topped against a Chiefs defense that allowed the most yards to tight ends in the regular season with 10 games surrendered at least 54 yards to a tight end. Even if you missed a better number last week, I'd play this Over up to 54.5.
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This might be Travis Kelce's last game, and narrative makes many of his props a little higher than they should be. For example, his receiving yardage prop is 61.5 against a great defense after averaging 10 yards fewer in the regular season. Even if he doesn't hit that Over, I do believe he has a 20-yard reception in him, which he's done in 10 of 18 games this season despite posting the lowest yardage total of his career. That gives this a path to cashing even if we don't get vintage Kelce for four quarters.
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This is my top Super Bowl prop. If you follow me on social media, you know last year my top prop was Kyle Juszczyk over 1.5 receiving yards that cashed on the second play of the game. This one won't be that easy but I like DeJean to go over 4.5 tackles/assists. The Eagles play nickel defense 82% of the time since Week 6 and I think he'll be around Kelce in the slot. DeJean has gone over this total in 5 straight and 9 of 10. During the 5-game stretch he's averaging 7.2 T/A. I'll lay some juice now because I think it goes up to 5.5. First play since I joined SL last year I'm posting for more than 1 unit. Good Luck.
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Saquon Barkley has been the bell cow and then some that Howie Roseman envisioned this offseason. Barkley has rattled off 118+ rush yds in five straight games (Incl. all 3 playoff games) and been a TD machine at the same time. He'll face a Chiefs' defense that hasn't been elite against the run down the stretch but has been elite in big games under DC Steve Spagnuolo. I expect KC to be ok with Barkley gaining yards as long as they don't come on the explosive play. Rather than playing 8 in the box this is a group that aims to keep Saquon in front of them, making his longest rush of 25.5 yards a tall mountain to climb
The second time around, the Eagles have a bit of an advantage in the secondary. This unit has two cover corners and two safeties that can turn the ball over. On the interior defensive line, I feel like they are much better there than they were in 2022. And finally, the Saquon Barkley factor is the biggest reason why they get revenge on the Kansas City Chiefs.
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Rookie safety Jaden Hicks, a fourth-rounder out of Washington State, has gotten increased playing time down the stretch. In fact, he got more snaps than Bryan Cook in each playoff game. Hicks has recorded 4-plus tackles in four straight games. He's missed only one tackle all season and earned his best tackling grade (per PFF) in the AFC title game.
Customarily, the side with the superior defense, rushing attack and offensive line prevails. K.C. might have the magical QB, but the Eagles require less of Jalen Hurts, allowing him to thrive without as many highlight-reel plays as counterpart Patrick Mahomes compiles. The two-week break is allowing Hurts to recover from various ailments, and RB par excellence Saquon Barkley benefits from a light workload in the NFC Championship game. Underdogs have won six of the last 10 Super Bowls outright while covering in 12 of the last 17. The Chiefs, less talented than in their prior two title years, have cut it close with a dozen one-score wins this season. Their extended good fortune is about to run dry.
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Isiah Pacheco's role continues to decline. He rushed five times for 12 yards in the AFC title game, while Kareem Hunt drew 17 carries. While Pacheco did catch two passes for 12 yards, he is typically not the Chiefs' receiving back. Philly just held Brian Robinson to 3.3 yards per carry and Austin Ekeler to 1.9 ypc. Look for Pacheco to have another minimal role against the Eagles.
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Noah Gray was a key receiver for K.C. at certain points this season, but his receiving role has diminished since Hollywood Brown returned. In those four games, Gray has drawn five total targets. I bet against Gray making two grabs in the Chiefs' crowded target tree, which is led by Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown.
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This is a number that has cashed in 11 of Smith's 16 games this year, including twice in the playoffs. He also has one game with a 19-yard reception, so it is a rare occurrence for him to not at least approach this number. With more potential passing for the Eagles if this game turns into a shootout, I like the chances Smith gets Over this number, and I'd also take him Over 20.5.
I believe this game will be decided on the line of scrimmage, and Philadelphia holds the advantage there. The Eagles' rushing attack, led by Saquon Barkley, has been nearly unstoppable this season. On the other side, Philly's defensive line is big, fast, and physical. The Chiefs have lingering offensive line issues. I don't love betting against Patrick Mahomes, but let's look back to the last time the Chiefs faced a ferocious defensive front seven with offensive line issues of their own on Super Bowl Sunday. The result: Tampa Bay beat Kansas City 31-9 in Super Bowl LV. I don't think this game will be a blowout like that one, but I expect the Eagles to dominate up front and come away with the win.
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The beauty of head coach Andy Reid is that he creates a game plan that may differ from the offense used in previous weeks. He intentionally held Noah Gray out so the Eagles wouldn't entirely game-plan for him. I expect several 12-personnel plays to utilize Noah Gray's size downfield. Philadelphia will focus on defending against the run and quick passes, similar to the approach the Chiefs offense took against Buffalo. Gray has recorded only six catches for 30 yards in his last four games. In the 2023 Super Bowl, he had two receptions for 22 yards. That will work.
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While the Eagles are a run-first offense, this is a low number for Jalen Hurts' pass attempts. He threw 28 times in the NFC title-game blowout. I believe this will be a close game throughout, so Philly will have to keep pushing offensively. Hurts likely won't approach the 38 pass attempts he had in the Super Bowl two years ago vs. Kansas City, but I love him to throw at least 27 times.
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Patrick Mahomes has had a run of 12 or more yards in four straight games. He rushed 11 times last week vs. Buffalo. With Philly's ability to get quick pressure via Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith Jr., Milton Williams and others, look for Mahomes to scramble and cash this Over.
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DraftKings. Coming off an injury scare in the Divisional round, Jalen Hurts looked spry against the Commanders. The Eagles used him on the tush push at will, and Hurts wound up with 10 rush attempts. Overall, Hurts cleared this line in 8/14 full regular season games. The Super Bowl should provide a solid spot for Hurts to continue to run (something I feel more confident about on two weeks rest). The Chiefs not only allowed the most QB scrambles this season (50 in 17 games, per Fantasy Points data), but they’ve also struggled against the read option, allowing 5.66 yards per carry. Obviously the focal point of the Eagles run game will be Saquon Barkley, but there should be enough opportunity for Hurts as well.
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The Chiefs' traditional running-back carries are going nowhere lately, with Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco each struggling to gain four yards a pop. But K.C. has had success giving speedster Xavier Worthy the ball. He's cleared this rushing prop number in four of the last five games. With Jalen Carter and Philly's defensive front owning a clear advantage over the Chiefs' offensive line, look for Andy Reid to get Worthy the ball on end-arounds or jet sweeps two to three times.
The Eagles' offense look nearly unstoppable in the NFC Championship Game. Granted, the Chiefs' defense will be a much tougher test for Philly than the Commanders, who were without Daron Payne, but I don't see the Eagles slowing down here. I expect Philadelphia to score 27+ points in Super Bowl LIX.
The Eagles and Chiefs tend to play conservatively and can eat up clock through long clock-running drives. The Eagles do that via Saquon and the Chiefs via the short area passing game. Add in that both defenses are very solid and you can see this first half being played conservatively and between the 20 yard lines. I see plenty of first half drives stalling and/or ending in field goals, and perhaps, the second half is when one of these teams (in a trailing position) tries to open things up.
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The Eagles' Zack Baun racked up 12 combined tackles in the NFC title game, and I bet him to get to double digits again in the Super Bowl. Nakobe Dean is out, leaving Baun as Philly's indispensable linebacker. Even if the Chiefs don't run the ball a lot, Patrick Mahomes is sure to complete a ton of short passes. That will give the All-Pro Baun the tackle opportunities he needs.
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19 TDs in his last 19 playoff games. Did almost nothing vs the Bills in the AFC title game but I don't see that happening two weeks in a row. Caught all 6 targets for 81 yards and a TD vs Philly in the Super Bowl a few years ago. He tends to come up big in these biggest of spots.
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He's over this in 7 of the last 10 games and while I believe the Eagles are going to have to take more shots in the passing game, this is a low number for a one-game season for this workhorse back. Tush push opportunities scare me a little but this game should stay relatively close and Barkley has 23 carries or more in 7 of the last 10 games and 25 or more in 6 of the last 10. I don't think he'll have as many explosive runs as have become the norm which should results in a few more carries too. Those 50-yard TDs rob us of volume. We've seen Kenneth Gainwell and others stuck on the bench in closer games.
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Eagles won't be able to win this game just handing of to Saquon Barkley or running the tush push. Going to have to try to push the ball down the field and I expect the Chiefs to force them to do so by making it hard to move the ball on the ground. KC Barkley can take a screen pass a mile and the Eagles will hit a few explosive plays. Hurts looked better throwing Sunday then he had in quite some time and getting extra rest here is huge.
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Dallas Goedert has been on fire since returning from injury, clearing this prop number in four straight. The Chiefs give up an average of eight targets to tight ends, with the TEs averaging about 12 yards per catch. It's much tougher to attack the Chiefs' corners than the linebackers and safeties in the middle of the field. Look for this number to rise as kickoff approaches.
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Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert has topped this in four straight games and saw eight targets, second most all season, in the NFC title game win over Washington. The Chiefs allowed the most yards to opposing tight ends this season. They did a good job against Buffalo on Sunday, but Houston's Dalton Schultz had 63 yards in the Divisional Round against them and he's no Goedert. While it's a different offense now, Goedert had six catches for 60 yards two years ago in the SB loss to Kansas City.
The Chiefs have been slow starters in Super Bowls and you saw the extra rest lead to a slow start vs Houston off the bye a few weeks back. Eagles were slow starters all season and ranked just 16th in points/drive in the first half of games and outside of occasional explosive run had rough first quarters. Neither coach is a 4th down maven and both trust their defenses. Not averse to taking three points. I don't think we get 38 first half points like in their last Super Bowl meeting. Neither passing attack is as high-octane. Expect more ball control and feeling their way through the first few drives.
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I have the Chiefs winning so there is kneel down potential there. The Chiefs traditional run game us inn worse shape than it's been in a long time and Kareem Hunt is gonna have issues with this Eagles DL. Mahomes will do whatever it takes to win 3 straight Lombardis, as evidenced with 11 carries in the AFC title game. He has at least 6 rushes in 5 straight playoff games and is generally right around this number in Super Bowls. IF his OL sags I expect him to run with more regularity. Boots on third-and-fourth and short are staples. Ran 9 times in Super Bowl last year.
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He's not a rookie anymore and Patrick Mahomes trusts him fully and he isn't just a deep sideline guy, either. He can make it happen in the horizontal passing game and on the kind of crossers than Jayden Daniels was slicing up the Eagles throwing. He and Matthew Stafford had plenty of joy throwing to their top guys, but turnovers derailed them. Worthy has 65 or more in 3 of the last 4 games with Mahomes. He has 44 targets in his last 5 games with Mahomes. Andy Reid will be moving him all over the place to get matchups he wants. Not leaving anything on the cutting room floor for the first-round pick in this game.
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Chiefs RZ offense has ben far from elite this season and Andy Reid isn't married to going to fourth down al the time. He actually tends to lean into his elite kicker and trusts his defense. Butker has attempted at least 2 FGs in 8 of his last 11 playoff games and he's attempted 10 in 4 Super Bowl games. Kicking in a dome will only help him, and lead to Reid trying from even more distance. Kicked 4 against the 49ers in the big game last year. Eagles have a top 5 RZ defense regular season and playoffs this year.
Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid with two weeks to prepare for a very good defense? I'll bite. The hung 38 on the Eagles in a Super Bowl not that long ago. Mahomes is over this total in 14 of his 20 career playoff games. His teams average 29.7 PPG in the playoffs. He is over this in 3 of his 4 Super Bowl appearances. I have the Chiefs scoring 27 in this game. Their kicker is a real weapon too, especially in a dome.
I don't see this moving to Chiefs -2.5 or 3, so I'm taking the points now. K.C.'s run defense has been mediocre since Week 10. The Bills were gashing the Chiefs with James Cook (6.5 ypc), but curiously gave seven of 20 running-back carries to his backups, who were ineffective. There's no chance the Eagles get away from Saquon Barkley. Philly is better in the trenches -- look for Nolan Smith (4 sacks this postseason) to take advantage of Jawaan Taylor. The NFL's No. 1 defense just held Washington to 4.5 yards per play. Since their Week 5 bye, the Eagles have only lost once -- the game Kenny Pickett played.
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Dallas Goedert has exceeded this total in all three of his postseason games. In the 2023 Super Bowl, he recorded 60 receiving yards when these two teams faced off. During the regular season, Kansas City allowed the most receiving yards to opposing tight ends, averaging 70 yards per game. Dalton Schultz achieved 63 receiving yards in the divisional round against Kansas City. The Chiefs managed to limit the Bills' tight ends to a low total, partly due to some drops. Andy Reid and his staff will focus on stopping the run, which will widen the middle of the field. The indoor environment improves the chances of success for this prop bet.
You don't go against Superman in the Clark Kent invitational (or Clark Hunt invitational for that matter). Patrick Mahomes is 17-3 in the playoffs and I've backed him for much of it and not changing now. (He's also 11-2 ATS in playoffs as a dog or a favorite of 5 points or less). And he's 8-0 lifetime against Vic Fangio defenses, who haven't been able to sack or turn him over nearly enough. Eagles may be better in the trenches, but NFC was fugazi again, KC survived a gauntlet and enters SB remarkably healthy. Can move Joe Thuney back inside if they prefer vs dominant interior PHI DL. Eagles D has slipped in recent weeks and KC ain't turning it over 3 times in SB.
The Chiefs took down the Bills in the playoffs yet again, but the Buffalo offense had success pounding the football while the defense couldn't overcome the loss of Christian Benford early. The Eagles have the most overwhelming rushing attack in football and a much better and healthier defense to counter Patrick Mahomes. Since Bills-Chiefs was a coin flip in Kansas City, I believe the Eagles should be favored as a stronger opponent on a neutral field, so I'll happily take the points down to a pick 'em.
Team Injuries
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