IP runs hard but he doesn’t look right. He's still not even close to back from his injury. I think KHunt gets at least as many carries if not more.

Going over 24 1/2 means that you will either need four touchdowns or three TDs and 2 field goals. That’s asking a lot for teams that will be under pressure and with a KC team that is no longer playing 35-31 games.

And watching the bills against Baltimore, one of the things that stood out to me Was that Josh Allen was clearly the Bills’ best option inside the five. And he is undeniably their best option inside the one. Thus, in anything but a wild nontraditional game script I think Josh Allen will find his way into the end zone on a short run. And there is no way this is a plus money prop on Sunday. Grab now.

Yeah, this has some significant juice at -175, but that gives us an implied percentage of 63%. Yet Smith has done this in every game since Thanksgiving. And Washington plays the zone where Smith gets 46% of target share since Thanksgiving. This number won’t last.

In the two playoff games Daniels has 47 and 48 pass/run attempts. That's an enormous number which should decrease by 15-20%. Without this outlier number of attempts he will be hard pressed to get over this total.

This is the third meeting and familiarity helps the D. Plus pressure is in so teams don’t want to make mistakes early. Add in the fact the Eagles might be carful with a banged up Hurts early and I’ll go under 23.5 in the first half. Nice value price.

Amari Cooper has been quiet but I’m banking on a better game here. He has the ability, the experience and knows the Bal secondary from his days as a Brown. The juice is high but I think the snow helps

Let’s take Johnson over receptions and receiving yards. Rushing as well. 1) Ray Davis still in concussion protocol and likely will not play. Last week without Davis, Johnson played 33 snaps. 2) only three teams in the NFL were worse against running back receptions than Baltimore 3) in long down and distance situations (which Buffalo should face a few this week)James Cook has only played two snaps since week eight!!

I expect that the Ravens will be favored very soon in every book so I’ll grab the value now. The ravens are rolling on offense, and the Bills D can be susceptible to explosive Plays. Ravens won 35-10 in Bal earlier.

I’m on DG today for both catches and yards. We have talked for two weeks how the Rams aren’t great v TE. (although it’s not as bad as you think because they play four games against George Kittle and Trey McBride in division). I think DG gets 4 grabs and avg more than 9 yards per (I make him 11) so I settled here

This is a big ask for the Rams. Cold weather, cross country on a short week and now in the second week of an emotional distraction. Plus, the Eagle O line DOMINATED the Rams front 7 in their earlier meeting. That won’t change. I LOVE LOVE using the Eagles in a two team teaser which brings this down to a pick.

The Detroit Lions are gonna score points in this game, but I’ll play under 33 1/2. Any struggles in the red zone, penalties or ball control by Wash all help the under. Under

The Lions team total is 33.5. That implies 4 TDs. Odds one goes to the lead goallinr back? More than the 57% this book offering. Other books are -200

Nobody blitzes more than the Vikes. And on blitz plays Puca is targeted a shocking 45% of the time. So I’ll take a deep breath and go over.

Hockenson is now healthy and a huge part of what Minnesota is trying to do on offense. I also think they’re gonna need to get Sam Darnold some confidence early on and that means some short passes which will likely include Hockenson targets. We might cash this in the first half.