Buffalo has been outstanding this year and had the luxury of resting players down the stretch with the division sealed up since early December. This however is a big number against a Broncos team that wants to generate pressure on defense while using a short controlled passing game on offense. Buffalo has been among the league's worst in 3rd down defense; not a great recipe for a Sean Payton offense. I don't get north of 7 on this game like the market indicates so I'm happy to back the road dog in the current range

When i look at these two teams there are a lot of similarities both in roster construction and head coaching tendencies. Both teams want to run the ball and play a physical brand of football while both QB's are more than capable of hanging crooked numbers. However weapons on both sides in the passing game are limited and there are plenty of OL concerns each way. I think this game starts slow and only opens up if a team has to chase the game after halftime. First half under for me in the early kick

The downgrade from Tua to Huntley isn't properly captured in this number...even against a Jets team absolutely reeling right now. New York had the Phins beat in Miami and get a second chance to play spoiler against a division rival in what could be Rodgers final start of his career. It hasn't been fun backing this team but for what feels like the 317th time this year I'm taking what I believe is an undervalued Jets side to get us to the window.

The Rangers remain an enigma in the betting market because they're being priced like an average hockey club based on pedigree and talent but their actual on ice performance suggests they're not even a fringe playoff candidate. Rangers have now lost 7 of 8 and are just 4-15 overall in their last 19. For a team that's struggled to suppress scoring chances and goals against things won't get easier with Igor Shesterkin landing on IR. I'll continue to fade the Rangers at reasonable prices against above average teams until the market properly adjusts

Coach Campbell has given no indication that the Lions have any intentions to rest players or lighten workloads in their penultimate game of the regular season. However this is a Lions backfield that was a two headed monster most of the season that's lost one of it's key cogs in recent weeks. I fully expect Jahmyr Gibbs to get his touches but they could come as a receiver rather than a battering ram back. We've seen his rushing tally bet down 10 yards from open but only modest movement on carries. I'll reverse engineer the market and expect a backfield by committee approach tonight with the Vikings showdown looming.

Michael Penix makes his road debut in primetime against fellow top 10 pick Jayden Daniels in what should be must see tv. However that might not be the biggest storyline of the game as mother nature may potentially have a major say in how the game unfolds. Steady winds and rain are forecasted to be the heaviest early in the game. Both defenses leave a little bit to be desired but both teams also have defensive minded head coaches that know their path to victory is on the ground. High leverage spot, weather, and two teams that want to run the ball provides a great recipe for a slow start.

I'm backing the road team in this spot plus the short number. Green Bay has flourished under Coach Lafleur in revenge spots going 25-13 ATS but that's only part of the picture. I have real concerns about this Vikings defense and the SOS they've played since the start of November. Not a single offense on that list other than the Falcons ranks inside the top 10 in total offense and that was against a 50% Kirk Cousins (at best). Arizona came in here and moved the ball at will as well but saw their day doomed with a 1 of 6 red zone execution rate. For me this is a game with two teams trending opposite directions and I'll back the road dog.

We've seen Josh Allen become a willing and capable runner in the Bills' highest leverage games this season; this isn't one of them. Despite needing a win for the 2 seed I can't see the Bills leaning into Josh's legs by design given how banged up he's been down the stretch. Much like last Sunday against the Patriots as a 14 point favorite, this feels like a survive and advance type situation where Allen is smart about avoiding unnecessary contact.

Seattle's run defense has trended up in recent weeks. Going back to week 11 they've held backs to the 11th-fewest rushing yards per game, one of the best explosive run rates, and produced a top 15 rate when it comes to yards after contact. Swift has been an accumulator and in a negative game state I'm not sure the touches are there let alone the chances to rip off an explosive. Under we go in Chicago behind a banged up Bears OL

Kansas City has quietly started to figure things out offensively over the last few weeks. The return of Hollywood Brown only gives the best QB in the game another weapon and deep threat to pair opposite Xavier Worthy. Pittsburgh also gets their best pass catcher George Pickens back in the mix after missing the last 3 games. The Steelers will be down their top cover corner in Joey Porter and there's a more than zero chance the Chiefs best pass rusher Chris Jones is limited or out today. We're going to look for points and do so early from the Steel City

Seattle gets Minnesota in the perfect spot; fresh off a dominant Monday Night Football performance now traveling across the country on a short week. Seattle was forced to play long stretches last Sunday against Green Bay without their QB Geno Smith and it showed. Geno has been upgraded today along with Kenneth Walker and a defense that's trended upwards. Sprinkle in some weather and there's a great recipe for a live home dog today.

Michael Mayer isn't a high volume receiver. He's only finished with more than 11 receiving yards in a game once all season and before last week, he hadn't caught more than 2 balls in a single game. All of that changes with Desmond Ridder under center and the expectation we could see a lot more two tight end sets tonight. Is he the key to winning a fantasy playoff match-up? Absolutely not but Since Week 9, Atlanta has allowed the fourth-most yards per attempt, the second-most passing touchdowns, the eighth-most passing yards per game, and the second-highest CPOE. These secondary weapons go boom or bust but working in a negative game script we're all about the boom here.

Philadelphia's defense has trended up substantially since their bye and Vic Fangio has this group absolutely humming. I have real concerns about the Steelers ability to hit explosives in this game without their field spacer George Pickens. Rather than getting involved in a side or total I'll isolate strength on weakness and bet against the Steelers offense today with a team total.

Russel Wilson leads his Steelers into battle in a familiar role; catching points. So far this year the Steelers are 5-0 SU and ATS in that role. However picking a side or total isn't my path to profit here it's betting against the explosive pass play for the Steelers. Without George Pickens, the Steelers are without their primary field spacer against a defense getting healthier in the secondary. Look for Arthur Smith to operate horizontally rather than vertically on Sunday against this Vic Fangio defense

Rico Dowdle has started to gobble up the entire backfield share for the Cowboys...but the market is catching up to his uptick in production. I just can't get to this number on a short week in a match-up that might be more challenging than it appears on paper