Todd's Past Picks
Betting markets are all about efficiency and win streaks often distort how teams are priced. Enter the St Louis Blues winners of 11 straight fresh off back to back OT wins and victorious in four straight 1 goal games. This however is all about price (as it should be) and just last Saturday the Blues beat Colorado 2-1 as +180 underdogs. Change in venue explains part of the price adjustment but perception plays a role. Colorado is one of a few teams with better underlying numbers than the Blues since the 4 nations break..they get revenge for last Saturday's 2-1 loss at a discounted road price
The La Kings are a pain to play against. They defend tenaciously turning every game into a rock fight. I've waited all day for this number to drift out and we finally have a strike point. The Kings don't lose at home where they're now 32-4 on the ML but when they take things on the road they're just 14-24. Don't tell that to the betting market that's over valued them on the road all year. This marks just their 4th game away from home since March 9th in those 3 games they've scored 4 total goals (3 against the Hawks). Utah is going to run out of real estate to make a playoff push but they're still fighting and make a very live dog.
Florida has owned the Toronto Maple Leafs in recent meetings. There's no way to sugarcoat that the Panthers have now won 4 of 6 regular season meetings, holding the Leafs to 2 goals or less in 5 of those games. Here's the issue; Florida isn't clicking right now and is grinding to the end of the regular season without Matthew Tkachuk and Aaron Ekblad. Florida is playing their 3rd game in 4 days allowing for the Leafs to have a decided rest edge. Yes, this game is massive for both sides but the price here is short for me on the home team after Panthers money hit the market earlier today.
Let's hit the rewind button to Saturday; Minnesota closed a -120 favorite against the Devils who entered that game on the 2nd of a back to back. New Jersey played on their front foot the night after being shut out by Winnipeg and Minnesota couldn't match. Tonight the venue changes and the Wild find themselves in a much more comfortable road underdog role with an edge in net. New Jersey plays their 4th game in 6 days before a 5 day break creates a good situational edge for the Wild. I see value here on the Wild anything +117 or better so I'm happy to back the road dog.
The Minnesota Wild are a team currently on my sell list. Coach Hynes' bunch has dealt with a rash of injuries and it's starting to show in the team's underlying metrics. Since the 4 nations break the Wild are just 24th in expected goals generated across all situations. The Rangers' current form isn't better but this is a team that generates offense at a higher rate and leans into elite goaltending on the defensive end. New York's four game skid has come at the hands of teams that can generate offense at a high rate, something the Wild can't do so we get an opportunity to back a desperate team in a good buy low spot tonight
Colorado is humming right now; scoring four goals or more in every game of their current home stand. The return of Val Nichuskin has buoyed the team but lost in their offensive resurgence is how good they've been on defense. The Avs are holding opponents to 2.48 expected goals a game since the 4Nations break. Colorado gets an inferior opponent tonight on the first leg of a back to back and we expect it to be workmanlike against a Blackhawks side lacking punch. Spencer Knight vs Scott Wedgewood is the expected match-up in net and my projected total is 6 flat offering us some upside at current market prices
The Isles are currently a team stuck in NHL purgatory; a longshot to make the postseason with key players on expiring contracts. Put all that aside for tonight when you play a rival less than a week after losing 5-1 in your own barn. Isles will have some changes to their lineup tonight but this bet is more about fading a Rangers team playing 3rd game in 4 days with what projects as an AHL caliber blue line. Since returning from the 4 nations break, NYR grade out as a bottom five team in xG differential. Igor Shesterkin is the great eraser for NYR in back but I fully expect his Isles counterpart Ilya Sorokin to match him after being pulled in the last meeting
Let's be honest; the betting market can't fade Minnesota hard enough each night the Wild lace up their skates. However it's not the side we're after tonight rather the total with both Central division teams starting their top option in net. Minnesota has dealt with a rash of injuries up front meaning their path to success is low event hockey. Colorado did get Val Nichuskin back last game which helps firepower but tonight three goals should be enough to get the win. The Wild need to turn this into a rock fight and Colorado should be happy to oblige in a workmanlike Friday performance. Under is our angle in Denver tonight
Kareem Hunt has embraced the increased workload given Pacheco's ineffectiveness since returning from injury. However, Hunt's efficiency numbers leave a lot to be desired and in this particular match-up he should find it tough sledding between the tackles. Given Hunt's inability to rip off explosives even if he exceeds his attempt number at 10.5 today there's a path where he doesn't eclipse 40+ rushing yards.
Saquon Barkley has been the bell cow and then some that Howie Roseman envisioned this offseason. Barkley has rattled off 118+ rush yds in five straight games (Incl. all 3 playoff games) and been a TD machine at the same time. He'll face a Chiefs' defense that hasn't been elite against the run down the stretch but has been elite in big games under DC Steve Spagnuolo. I expect KC to be ok with Barkley gaining yards as long as they don't come on the explosive play. Rather than playing 8 in the box this is a group that aims to keep Saquon in front of them, making his longest rush of 25.5 yards a tall mountain to climb
Colorado played one of the weekend's more exciting game against the Rangers on Sunday where there was no shortage of offense. Unfortunately for the Avs this is still a team struggling to generate offense at 5 on 5 with a power play now mired in a 2 for 24 funk their last 10 games. Thankfully for our under the Isles penalty kill has shown signs of life recently contributing to a lower scoring brand of hockey. Yes, the Isles are down Noah Dobson and Ryan Pulock on the blue line but I expect them to place added emphasis on defensive responsibilities now. My numbers make this total a shade more than 5.5 so with Sorokin vs Blackwood confirmed an under is in store for us
I don't see a massive edge here but do see upside in banking on Worthy to have a positive rush or two on Sunday. Worthy had one rushing attempt vs Houston and was gobbled up in the backfield for an eight yard loss. Prior to that Worthy had at least 1 rushing attempt in 6 of 7 games and finished with five or more receiving yards. I'll look for KC to get inventive with their speedster in the AFC title game
Travis Kelce will no doubt get his opportunities as he does every playoff game but there are other avenues for the Chiefs to attack as well. I'm buying low on Hollywood Brown this week after a zero catch performance on two targets. In his final 2 regular season games against the Steelers and Texans he came away with nine grabs on 15 targets for 91 yards (46,45). This Bills' secondary is banged up and down its center fielder in Taylor Rapp meaning I expect a few deep shots with Hollywood on the receiving end tonight.
Ottawa has played a lot of hockey lately and find themselves in a brutal spot today against a rested Utah team. Ottawa not only played last night against their bitter rival in Toronto but is now going to be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, 6th game in 9 nights, and 7th game in 11...did I mention today is a matinee too? This Ottawa team has experienced a renaissance under Travis Greene and are a legitimate playoff threat. However I expect the tank to be running on E today and I'm willing to back a Utah team that's playing decent hockey that can lean into a goaltending advantage with a major rest edge here. Live dog alert in the Canadian capital.
Colorado completed a blockbuster deal on Friday trading their leading goal scorer Mikko Raantanen to Carolina as part of a 3 way deal that returns Martin Necas from the Hurricanes. There's a chance Necas joins the Avs in time for a matinee tomorrow but doesn't appear likely. Colorado has struggled to score at 5 on 5 already this season and playing 1 game without 25 goals an 69 points against a defensive minded Bruins team (albeit leaky) is a number we just can't pass up here. I expected the Avalanche to go off in the -115 range before Saturday puck drop.