I'll be honest; I just don't understand this number for Game 4. Minnesota has been the better team in this series for 2+ games and is getting tremendous production from it's top line of Kirill Kaprizov - Joel Eriksson - Matt Boldy. On the flipside Vegas' top group hasn't generated anything and it's getting late early for one of the West's favorites. I get desperation and I get the intangibles but I what i don't get is the number drifting this far. I'll fade the steam and take a stab with the dog

Montreal has shown their inexperience through the first two games of the series but with a bounce here or there this thing could be knotted at 1 a piece. While I don't think Montreal has enough to erase a 2-0 deficit I do believe this young roster can feed off the home crowd today and get in the win column. Last change should prove to be a big advantage for the Caufield - Suzuki - Slafkosky line. I know we missed the best of the number but anything +100 or better is worth a bet

I couldn't help but be impressed with the level of fight and depth I saw first hand from the Wild in the first two games of this series. Vegas looked rather lethargic themselves in Game 2 especially with their defensive assignments and puck handling. With Game 3 being so pivotal I really expect both teams to tighten things up on their back end. Both goalies have shown flashes this series and with some support I expect that to continue. My total on this game is closer to 5.5 under -125 so I'm happy to grab an inflated tag and root for low event hockey in the twin cities

I expected this series to have ebs and flows; I just didn't expect to see so many in Game 1. Montreal looked overwhelmed early in the game leaning into Sam Montembault to keep things tight. However by the time the 3rd period rolled around Montreal found their sea legs which makes them a live dog in my opinion tonight. No doubt the Habs need more production down their lineup but they can play loose and free in this spot. My number on the game doesn't show a tremendous amount of value but the dog is live at +145 or better tonight

Don't be fooled by the 5-1 scoreline from Game 1. Dallas held their own against the favored Avalanche but fell victim to a few difficult bounces that forced them to chase the game. Full disclosure, I do think the Avs win this series however the price today warrants a bet on Dallas. Yes, the Stars are still playing without Miro Heiskanen and Jason Robertson, that's why Dallas is a decent home dog. I see value in the dog given series effects at +110 or better so please shop around as I even see some +130 at time of posting.

This is a number we never would have seen a few months ago but here we are as the Devils play Game 82 fresh off an OT win against Boston. Devils HC Sheldon Keefe was pretty outspoken about not putting players in harms way in the season finale and the Devils have already called up players from their AHL affiliate as a result. While we don't have exact Devils' lineup info yet I expect some of their key cogs to get the night off making this price on Detroit too good to pass up for a bet

Calgary is still fighting for their postseason lives and normally oddsmakers force us to pay a premium for that. I don't see that properly priced into this line matched up against a Vegas side that's been dealing with injuries and illness down the stretch. While we don't know what Knights players may rest on Tuesday by the time we do the price will be gone. Late in the year it's about info over power ratings and we'll dabble with the dog in this spot.

Los Angeles has the inside track to home ice in the first round and tonight's game goes a long way in settling that issue. However this is more about mindset and the Kings have been beaten down each of the last three years by the Oilers in the playoffs. LA has said they want home ice and a win tonight secures that. Edmonton is on the 2nd of a back to back and while Ryan Nugent Hopkins will return Leon Draisaitl will not. Stuart Skinner returned from injury yesterday vs Winnipeg and I don't think it was coincidence he played vs the Jets instead of tonight. I'll back the healthier team in a statement game for them with a rest edge at roughly a pick.

Betting markets are all about efficiency and win streaks often distort how teams are priced. Enter the St Louis Blues winners of 11 straight fresh off back to back OT wins and victorious in four straight 1 goal games. This however is all about price (as it should be) and just last Saturday the Blues beat Colorado 2-1 as +180 underdogs. Change in venue explains part of the price adjustment but perception plays a role. Colorado is one of a few teams with better underlying numbers than the Blues since the 4 nations break..they get revenge for last Saturday's 2-1 loss at a discounted road price

The La Kings are a pain to play against. They defend tenaciously turning every game into a rock fight. I've waited all day for this number to drift out and we finally have a strike point. The Kings don't lose at home where they're now 32-4 on the ML but when they take things on the road they're just 14-24. Don't tell that to the betting market that's over valued them on the road all year. This marks just their 4th game away from home since March 9th in those 3 games they've scored 4 total goals (3 against the Hawks). Utah is going to run out of real estate to make a playoff push but they're still fighting and make a very live dog.

Florida has owned the Toronto Maple Leafs in recent meetings. There's no way to sugarcoat that the Panthers have now won 4 of 6 regular season meetings, holding the Leafs to 2 goals or less in 5 of those games. Here's the issue; Florida isn't clicking right now and is grinding to the end of the regular season without Matthew Tkachuk and Aaron Ekblad. Florida is playing their 3rd game in 4 days allowing for the Leafs to have a decided rest edge. Yes, this game is massive for both sides but the price here is short for me on the home team after Panthers money hit the market earlier today.

Let's hit the rewind button to Saturday; Minnesota closed a -120 favorite against the Devils who entered that game on the 2nd of a back to back. New Jersey played on their front foot the night after being shut out by Winnipeg and Minnesota couldn't match. Tonight the venue changes and the Wild find themselves in a much more comfortable road underdog role with an edge in net. New Jersey plays their 4th game in 6 days before a 5 day break creates a good situational edge for the Wild. I see value here on the Wild anything +117 or better so I'm happy to back the road dog.

The Minnesota Wild are a team currently on my sell list. Coach Hynes' bunch has dealt with a rash of injuries and it's starting to show in the team's underlying metrics. Since the 4 nations break the Wild are just 24th in expected goals generated across all situations. The Rangers' current form isn't better but this is a team that generates offense at a higher rate and leans into elite goaltending on the defensive end. New York's four game skid has come at the hands of teams that can generate offense at a high rate, something the Wild can't do so we get an opportunity to back a desperate team in a good buy low spot tonight

Colorado is humming right now; scoring four goals or more in every game of their current home stand. The return of Val Nichuskin has buoyed the team but lost in their offensive resurgence is how good they've been on defense. The Avs are holding opponents to 2.48 expected goals a game since the 4Nations break. Colorado gets an inferior opponent tonight on the first leg of a back to back and we expect it to be workmanlike against a Blackhawks side lacking punch. Spencer Knight vs Scott Wedgewood is the expected match-up in net and my projected total is 6 flat offering us some upside at current market prices

The Isles are currently a team stuck in NHL purgatory; a longshot to make the postseason with key players on expiring contracts. Put all that aside for tonight when you play a rival less than a week after losing 5-1 in your own barn. Isles will have some changes to their lineup tonight but this bet is more about fading a Rangers team playing 3rd game in 4 days with what projects as an AHL caliber blue line. Since returning from the 4 nations break, NYR grade out as a bottom five team in xG differential. Igor Shesterkin is the great eraser for NYR in back but I fully expect his Isles counterpart Ilya Sorokin to match him after being pulled in the last meeting