I have the slimmest of margins separating these two teams in the Western conference and I'll make the case if you were to blindly bet the dog in every game this series you might make money (just because I say it, don't do it). Edmonton found their stride after dropping the first two games to LA and it was their defensive poise that stood out vs Vegas. Dallas' overall team defense leaves something to be desired for me as I'm concerned about blue line depth. Even with Connor Brown a GTD decision anything on Edmonton +105 or better was going to trigger a bet so it's back to the well (pun intended) we go.

I'll save you the narrative of road Connor Helleybuck; it remains a thing until it's not. The Jets defensively have been outstanding this postseason; ranking 2nd in expected goals against across all situations behind just the Panthers. Jake Oettinger has dazzled on the other end for Dallas as well giving up two goals in Game 5 that looked more like pinball than anything else. I understand the concern of elimination games getting loose late but both teams are capable of stymieing their opponents tonight; first team to 3 gets the W

Let's get the easy question out of the way: do I think the Capitals win tonight? I do not. Do I think they lose as often as the betting market suggests? No I do not. Here we are; having our hand forced with a price that's run too far in a game poised to be tight checking and low scoring. Carolina is a difficult out and Freddie Andersen has played at a high level all series but that's not stopping us from taking a small stab on the road dog here anything north of +205

Dallas deserves a world of credit; they found a way to gut out a seven game series without two key cogs beating what I would call a better team in the Avalanche. Unfortunately for Dallas all signs point to life continuing without their top dman Miro Heiskanen for Game 1. Injury questions abound both ways: Jason Robertson (Dallas), Mark Scheifele (WPG), and Josh Morrissey (WPG) all remain GTD. Narrative or not I think Connor Hellebuyck found something in Game 7 that carries forward here and if none of the players mentioned above play I make the Jets a more substantial home favorite in Game 1. I'm on the Jets here to continue the incredible run of play this postseason in the Peg.

Both teams come in hot; yes it's a foolish thing to say this time of year but the Oilers won four straight to dispatch the Kings and Vegas won three straight to send the Wild home. However Edmonton dominated the final three games of their series while Vegas won a few coin flips in my opinion. The match-up to watch is Vegas' d core vs the Oilers speed up front and in my opinion that's what will determine this series winner. Yes, holding home ice is much more important for Vegas here but it's all about price and since I expect the Oilers to get a split at T-Mobile +118 is too much to pass up in tonight's game.

I'll be honest; I just don't understand this number for Game 4. Minnesota has been the better team in this series for 2+ games and is getting tremendous production from it's top line of Kirill Kaprizov - Joel Eriksson - Matt Boldy. On the flipside Vegas' top group hasn't generated anything and it's getting late early for one of the West's favorites. I get desperation and I get the intangibles but I what i don't get is the number drifting this far. I'll fade the steam and take a stab with the dog

Montreal has shown their inexperience through the first two games of the series but with a bounce here or there this thing could be knotted at 1 a piece. While I don't think Montreal has enough to erase a 2-0 deficit I do believe this young roster can feed off the home crowd today and get in the win column. Last change should prove to be a big advantage for the Caufield - Suzuki - Slafkosky line. I know we missed the best of the number but anything +100 or better is worth a bet

I couldn't help but be impressed with the level of fight and depth I saw first hand from the Wild in the first two games of this series. Vegas looked rather lethargic themselves in Game 2 especially with their defensive assignments and puck handling. With Game 3 being so pivotal I really expect both teams to tighten things up on their back end. Both goalies have shown flashes this series and with some support I expect that to continue. My total on this game is closer to 5.5 under -125 so I'm happy to grab an inflated tag and root for low event hockey in the twin cities

I expected this series to have ebs and flows; I just didn't expect to see so many in Game 1. Montreal looked overwhelmed early in the game leaning into Sam Montembault to keep things tight. However by the time the 3rd period rolled around Montreal found their sea legs which makes them a live dog in my opinion tonight. No doubt the Habs need more production down their lineup but they can play loose and free in this spot. My number on the game doesn't show a tremendous amount of value but the dog is live at +145 or better tonight

Don't be fooled by the 5-1 scoreline from Game 1. Dallas held their own against the favored Avalanche but fell victim to a few difficult bounces that forced them to chase the game. Full disclosure, I do think the Avs win this series however the price today warrants a bet on Dallas. Yes, the Stars are still playing without Miro Heiskanen and Jason Robertson, that's why Dallas is a decent home dog. I see value in the dog given series effects at +110 or better so please shop around as I even see some +130 at time of posting.

This is a number we never would have seen a few months ago but here we are as the Devils play Game 82 fresh off an OT win against Boston. Devils HC Sheldon Keefe was pretty outspoken about not putting players in harms way in the season finale and the Devils have already called up players from their AHL affiliate as a result. While we don't have exact Devils' lineup info yet I expect some of their key cogs to get the night off making this price on Detroit too good to pass up for a bet

Calgary is still fighting for their postseason lives and normally oddsmakers force us to pay a premium for that. I don't see that properly priced into this line matched up against a Vegas side that's been dealing with injuries and illness down the stretch. While we don't know what Knights players may rest on Tuesday by the time we do the price will be gone. Late in the year it's about info over power ratings and we'll dabble with the dog in this spot.

Los Angeles has the inside track to home ice in the first round and tonight's game goes a long way in settling that issue. However this is more about mindset and the Kings have been beaten down each of the last three years by the Oilers in the playoffs. LA has said they want home ice and a win tonight secures that. Edmonton is on the 2nd of a back to back and while Ryan Nugent Hopkins will return Leon Draisaitl will not. Stuart Skinner returned from injury yesterday vs Winnipeg and I don't think it was coincidence he played vs the Jets instead of tonight. I'll back the healthier team in a statement game for them with a rest edge at roughly a pick.

Betting markets are all about efficiency and win streaks often distort how teams are priced. Enter the St Louis Blues winners of 11 straight fresh off back to back OT wins and victorious in four straight 1 goal games. This however is all about price (as it should be) and just last Saturday the Blues beat Colorado 2-1 as +180 underdogs. Change in venue explains part of the price adjustment but perception plays a role. Colorado is one of a few teams with better underlying numbers than the Blues since the 4 nations break..they get revenge for last Saturday's 2-1 loss at a discounted road price

The La Kings are a pain to play against. They defend tenaciously turning every game into a rock fight. I've waited all day for this number to drift out and we finally have a strike point. The Kings don't lose at home where they're now 32-4 on the ML but when they take things on the road they're just 14-24. Don't tell that to the betting market that's over valued them on the road all year. This marks just their 4th game away from home since March 9th in those 3 games they've scored 4 total goals (3 against the Hawks). Utah is going to run out of real estate to make a playoff push but they're still fighting and make a very live dog.