The Minnesota Wild are a team currently on my sell list. Coach Hynes' bunch has dealt with a rash of injuries and it's starting to show in the team's underlying metrics. Since the 4 nations break the Wild are just 24th in expected goals generated across all situations. The Rangers' current form isn't better but this is a team that generates offense at a higher rate and leans into elite goaltending on the defensive end. New York's four game skid has come at the hands of teams that can generate offense at a high rate, something the Wild can't do so we get an opportunity to back a desperate team in a good buy low spot tonight

Colorado is humming right now; scoring four goals or more in every game of their current home stand. The return of Val Nichuskin has buoyed the team but lost in their offensive resurgence is how good they've been on defense. The Avs are holding opponents to 2.48 expected goals a game since the 4Nations break. Colorado gets an inferior opponent tonight on the first leg of a back to back and we expect it to be workmanlike against a Blackhawks side lacking punch. Spencer Knight vs Scott Wedgewood is the expected match-up in net and my projected total is 6 flat offering us some upside at current market prices

The Isles are currently a team stuck in NHL purgatory; a longshot to make the postseason with key players on expiring contracts. Put all that aside for tonight when you play a rival less than a week after losing 5-1 in your own barn. Isles will have some changes to their lineup tonight but this bet is more about fading a Rangers team playing 3rd game in 4 days with what projects as an AHL caliber blue line. Since returning from the 4 nations break, NYR grade out as a bottom five team in xG differential. Igor Shesterkin is the great eraser for NYR in back but I fully expect his Isles counterpart Ilya Sorokin to match him after being pulled in the last meeting

Let's be honest; the betting market can't fade Minnesota hard enough each night the Wild lace up their skates. However it's not the side we're after tonight rather the total with both Central division teams starting their top option in net. Minnesota has dealt with a rash of injuries up front meaning their path to success is low event hockey. Colorado did get Val Nichuskin back last game which helps firepower but tonight three goals should be enough to get the win. The Wild need to turn this into a rock fight and Colorado should be happy to oblige in a workmanlike Friday performance. Under is our angle in Denver tonight

Kareem Hunt has embraced the increased workload given Pacheco's ineffectiveness since returning from injury. However, Hunt's efficiency numbers leave a lot to be desired and in this particular match-up he should find it tough sledding between the tackles. Given Hunt's inability to rip off explosives even if he exceeds his attempt number at 10.5 today there's a path where he doesn't eclipse 40+ rushing yards.

Saquon Barkley has been the bell cow and then some that Howie Roseman envisioned this offseason. Barkley has rattled off 118+ rush yds in five straight games (Incl. all 3 playoff games) and been a TD machine at the same time. He'll face a Chiefs' defense that hasn't been elite against the run down the stretch but has been elite in big games under DC Steve Spagnuolo. I expect KC to be ok with Barkley gaining yards as long as they don't come on the explosive play. Rather than playing 8 in the box this is a group that aims to keep Saquon in front of them, making his longest rush of 25.5 yards a tall mountain to climb

Colorado played one of the weekend's more exciting game against the Rangers on Sunday where there was no shortage of offense. Unfortunately for the Avs this is still a team struggling to generate offense at 5 on 5 with a power play now mired in a 2 for 24 funk their last 10 games. Thankfully for our under the Isles penalty kill has shown signs of life recently contributing to a lower scoring brand of hockey. Yes, the Isles are down Noah Dobson and Ryan Pulock on the blue line but I expect them to place added emphasis on defensive responsibilities now. My numbers make this total a shade more than 5.5 so with Sorokin vs Blackwood confirmed an under is in store for us

I don't see a massive edge here but do see upside in banking on Worthy to have a positive rush or two on Sunday. Worthy had one rushing attempt vs Houston and was gobbled up in the backfield for an eight yard loss. Prior to that Worthy had at least 1 rushing attempt in 6 of 7 games and finished with five or more receiving yards. I'll look for KC to get inventive with their speedster in the AFC title game

Travis Kelce will no doubt get his opportunities as he does every playoff game but there are other avenues for the Chiefs to attack as well. I'm buying low on Hollywood Brown this week after a zero catch performance on two targets. In his final 2 regular season games against the Steelers and Texans he came away with nine grabs on 15 targets for 91 yards (46,45). This Bills' secondary is banged up and down its center fielder in Taylor Rapp meaning I expect a few deep shots with Hollywood on the receiving end tonight.

Ottawa has played a lot of hockey lately and find themselves in a brutal spot today against a rested Utah team. Ottawa not only played last night against their bitter rival in Toronto but is now going to be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, 6th game in 9 nights, and 7th game in 11...did I mention today is a matinee too? This Ottawa team has experienced a renaissance under Travis Greene and are a legitimate playoff threat. However I expect the tank to be running on E today and I'm willing to back a Utah team that's playing decent hockey that can lean into a goaltending advantage with a major rest edge here. Live dog alert in the Canadian capital.

Colorado completed a blockbuster deal on Friday trading their leading goal scorer Mikko Raantanen to Carolina as part of a 3 way deal that returns Martin Necas from the Hurricanes. There's a chance Necas joins the Avs in time for a matinee tomorrow but doesn't appear likely. Colorado has struggled to score at 5 on 5 already this season and playing 1 game without 25 goals an 69 points against a defensive minded Bruins team (albeit leaky) is a number we just can't pass up here. I expected the Avalanche to go off in the -115 range before Saturday puck drop.

Both the Rangers and Flyers understand the value of securing every single point in their race to stay in the playoff mix. Since returning from injury Igor Shesterkin has been magnificent; producing back to back shutouts. His most likely opposition tonight Samuel Ersson has quietly regained his form behind a Flyers defensive structure suppressing expected goals at a top 6 rate all season. I expect a tight checking defensive minded game tonight; for those that don't have access to a juiced 6 here going under 5.5 (+105) is a damn fine bet as well

Could we be seeing a Stanley Cup Final preview tonight in Dallas? I don't think so but it doesn't change the Star power (pun intended) on display here. Carolina is on the 2nd of a back to back, needing OT to sneak by Chicago while Dallas enters with a rest advantage. Carolina is top 5 in the league in expected goals against over their L5 across all situations. Both teams are killing penalties at an elite level which also bodes well for keeping goals off the scoreboard. Combine that with the continued absence of Stars' leading goal scorer Roope Hintz and we have a lot of key factors lining up for a lower scoring game tonight

Jalen Hurts didn't quite look right last week in his return from the concussion that sidelined him the final few regular season games. The passing game looked out of sync and rusty including a limited workload for the Eagles big play receiver in AJ Brown. Today Hurts and the Eagles offense will need to deal with the elements as much as a Rams pass rush that's found teeth of late. Philly showed the blueprint for beating this Rams group was running the football early and often in the previous match-up and I'm not sure much changes here. It's a low passing total for a reason and there's still wiggle room even after the 1st wave of under money came at 199.5

I'm going to try and get ahead of the snowpocalypse that will garner headlines before Sunday's kickoff in Philadelphia. Forecasts are calling for steady snow and accumulation throughout the game combined with mild gusts. This total will only move one direction. From a football standpoint, I expect both teams to lean into their ground games early trying to win a trench game. The loss of Nakobe Dean for Philly isn't ideal nor is the Rams strength of schedule down the stretch but anything over three touchdowns in the elements offers us upside for two slow starting offenses in a game of this magnitude.