The Detroit Tigers will start Jackson Jobe, who has pitched much better at home (2.30 ERA, .218 opponent batting average) than on the road (5.32 ERA, .250 OBA) this season. Cleveland will start seven left-handed batters, including switch-hitters. Jobe allows a batting average of .197 with 17 K's in 66 innings against left-handed hitters. The Tigers went 5-for-32, striking out 12 times and leaving 18 runners on base in yesterday's shutout loss. Detroit has a record of 11-3 after a loss since their opening series sweep by the Dodgers. Also, this will be Guardians' fourth game in three days, and I like fading that. Slade Cecconi has a career ERA of 6.03, with 92 strikeouts in 28 games over 109 innings pitched.

Both teams are red hot, with the Pacers 8-2 in their last 10 games and the Knicks 7-3. While the Knicks are favored at home, Indiana's up-tempo style and strong fourth-quarter performances—second-best in the NBA—make them a dangerous underdog tonight. Pascal Siakam's rebounding and the Pacers' fresh legs could exploit New York's shorter rotation. Both teams are healthy, but Indiana's recent playoff road wins and offensive efficiency suggest they can hang with the Knicks at Madison Square Garden or even win outright. My betting model has the Knicks favored by 1.2 points, so getting 4.5 seems juicy.

The Hurricanes have been dominant at home, with a 36-9-1 record this season. The Panthers are coming off a challenging seven-game series and will play their eighth game in 15 days, which includes four games in six days. Historically, the Hurricanes have fared well at Lenovo Center in the postseason, holding a 14-5 record since 2022, although two losses have been to Florida. The Panthers defeated the Hurricanes in four overtimes two seasons ago in Carolina and then went on to win the next three games to complete the sweep. The Hurricanes should be highly motivated to prevent the Panthers from stealing Game 1 on the road again. I respect the Hurricanes' suffocating defense, especially with extra preparation time against the fatigued Panthers.

This is the first system play of the season for winning teams. Last Wednesday, Ryan Weathers and the Miami Marlins defeated the Chicago Cubs and Jameson Taillon. It's challenging for a pitcher to beat the same team twice in six days or less. This is one of my best MLB systems, which has proven effective over time. It involves betting on winning teams with the same pitching matchup occurring within five or six days. Ensure each pitcher has been credited with a win and a loss in their first game. You should place your bet on the team that lost the first matchup. The Cubs are ranked first in OPS (.836) against left-handed pitchers and get to face Weathers after a loss.

Kyle Tucker will face Edward Cabrera, who has struggled with control this season (1.53 WHIP) and has allowed five home runs in just 29.1 innings. Edward throws his changeup 27%, sinker 26%, and curveball 23% of the time. That could be a problem as Tucker has a .348 batting average with a .652 slug against changeups, a .409 average with a .818 slug against sinkers, and a .313 average with a .625 slug against curveballs. He has a batting average of .308 with two home runs and a .769 slugging percentage at Marlins Park (2023), which is now called LoanDepot Park. Edward Cabrera has allowed 33 stolen bases in the last two seasons, and the Marlins are ranked last in stolen bases against this season.

Kyle Tucker will face Edward Cabrera, who has struggled with control this season (1.53 WHIP) and has allowed five home runs in just 29.1 innings. Edward throws his changeup 27%, sinker 26%, and curveball 23% of the time. That could be a problem as Tucker has a .348 batting average with a .652 slug against changeups, a .409 average with a .818 slug against sinkers, and a .313 average with a .625 slug against curveballs. He has a batting average of .308 with two home runs and a .769 slugging percentage at Marlins Park (2023), which is now called LoanDepot Park. The Marlins' bullpen has allowed the fifth-most hits this season.

Kyle Tucker will face Edward Cabrera, who has struggled with control this season (1.53 WHIP) and has allowed five home runs in just 29.1 innings. Edward throws his changeup 27%, sinker 26%, and curveball 23% of the time. That could be a problem as Tucker has a .348 batting average with a .652 slug against changeups, a .409 average with a .818 slug against sinkers, and a .313 average with a .625 slug against curveballs. He has a batting average of .308 with two home runs and a .769 slugging percentage at Marlins Park (2023), which is now called LoanDepot Park. The Marlins' bullpen has allowed the fifth-most hits this season.

The Milwaukee Brewers are 8-for-62 with 26 strikeouts while scoring zero runs in losing the first two games of this series. I like the Brewers to bounce back and end the Twins' 13-game winning streak. Freddy Peralta is 2-0 with a 0.47 ERA at home and 1-1 with a 1.85 ERA in day games. Overall, he has a .197 batting average against opponents this season. Play the Brew Crew.

Shohei Ohtani is 4-for-7 with three triples and one home run with a 1.857 slugging percentage against Tyler Anderson in his career. His total bases prop line is inflated. The weather is cooler than average, which will suppress the baseball, although it may not matter. I like his stolen bases prop as Ohtani hasn’t recorded a stolen base in 10 straight games. Tyler Anderson has allowed 20 steals, the second most over the last two seasons. He’s allowed 17 walks in 8 games. I can see Ohtani getting on base via a walk and then stealing a base. I think it’s a nice plus money opportunity.

Tanner Bibee has struggled against the heart of opposing lineups, allowing a slugging percentage of .707 to the 2-3-4 hitters this season. Elly De La Cruz has performed significantly better at Great American Ballpark with a .296 batting average and a .543 slugging percentage compared to his performance on the road, where he has a .221 batting average and a .326 slugging percentage. The Guardians' bullpen has allowed the fifth most hits (166) this season, and the Reds' home park is ranked 13th in hits allowed and first in home runs. Cleveland has allowed the fifth most stolen bases this season, yet De La Cruz hasn't attempted a stolen base in the last eight games. He is ranked in the 89th percentile in sprint speed.

Tanner Bibee has struggled against the heart of opposing lineups, allowing a slugging percentage of .707 to the 2-3-4 hitters this season. Elly De La Cruz has performed significantly better at Great American Ballpark with a .296 batting average and a .543 slugging percentage compared to his performance on the road, where he has a .221 batting average and a .326 slugging percentage. The Guardians' bullpen has allowed the fifth most hits (166) this season, and the Reds' home park is ranked 13th in hits allowed and first in home runs. Cleveland has allowed the fifth most stolen bases this season, yet De La Cruz hasn't attempted a stolen base in the last eight games. He is ranked in the 89th percentile in sprint speed.

While the Maple Leafs were blanked in Game four, they have a potent offense led by stars like Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. It's unlikely that Toronto's top scorers will remain quiet for long, especially at home, where the coaching staff can better manage matchups. They have won 11 of their last 12 home games. Sergei Bobrovsky was outstanding in Game 4. Still, such elite goaltending performances are difficult to sustain over multiple games. His performance on the road versus at home has been telling all season. Interestingly, Florida went 2-6 against winning teams after two days off. Joseph Woll stopped 35 of 37 shots and posted a .946 save percentage, and I love backing a good team returning home after getting shut out.

The Milwaukee Brewers have been shut out in their last two games against the Guardians. On Tuesday, the Brewers' third and fourth batters went a combined 0-for-8. As a team, they are hitting just 10-for-63 with 18 strikeouts while trying to avoid a sweep on Wednesday afternoon. Gavin Williams has thrown 198 pitches over his last two starts and has pitched at least 195 innings in a two-game span twice during his career, but it hasn't gone well. If you combine the statistics from both of his following starts, Williams has allowed 15 hits and 10 earned runs in just six innings total. The Guardians have never seen Logan Henderson, an advantage for Milwaukee in a day game after a night game.

Framber Valdez throws his sinker 48.4% of the time, his curveball 30%, and his changeup 16%. This season, Bobby Witt Jr. has excelled against these three pitches, achieving a .364 batting average and a .727 slugging percentage against sinkers, a .625 batting average with a 1.250 slugging percentage against curveballs, and a .412 batting average with a .588 slugging percentage against changeups. Witt may get at least five plate appearances as the road team and batting second. Additionally, the Astros had to rely on three high-leverage relievers on Monday. I also like his home run prop, especially after hitting a triple yesterday.

Framber Valdez throws his sinker 48.4% of the time, his curveball 30%, and his changeup 16%. This season, Bobby Witt Jr. has excelled against these three pitches, achieving a .364 batting average and a .727 slugging percentage against sinkers, a .625 batting average with a 1.250 slugging percentage against curveballs, and a .412 batting average with a .588 slugging percentage against changeups. Witt may get at least five plate appearances as the road team and batting second. Additionally, the Astros had to rely on three high-leverage relievers on Monday. I also like his home run prop, especially after hitting a triple yesterday.