Byron Buxton will face Cade Povich, a left-handed pitcher for the Orioles. Buxton is 1-for-2 against Povich, including a double, highlighting his ability to make solid contact. Byron is batting .364 with a .727 slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers. His hard-hit rate is 55.3% this season, placing him in the 94th percentile. In contrast, Povich has a hard-hit rate of 47.4%, which is in the 15th percentile. Furthermore, the Orioles bullpen has given up the second most hits (140) this season. With temperatures in the low 80s and an air density reading of 55, the ball is expected to travel 8% farther than usual, the highest of any park on Tuesday.

The Toronto Maple Leafs lost to Florida in five games in the 2023 playoffs, but both teams have significantly changed their rosters since then. The Panthers haven't played a game outside Florida since April 6th. They are still without one of their best defensemen (Aaron Ekblad). Anthony Stolarz, a former Panther, has played well for Toronto, posting a .915 save percentage in Round 1. He could outplay Sergei Bobrovsky, who recorded a .901 save percentage against Tampa Bay. Bobrovsky wasn't as dominant on the road (13-10, 2.55 GAA) as at home (20-9, 2.36 GAA) this season. The Leafs secured a win against Florida at home in early April, which should give them confidence tonight.

Houston's younger players and deeper rotation have influenced the series, with their double-big lineup neutralizing the Warriors' offense. Golden State appears fatigued, dealing with minor injuries to key players, while Houston has maintained strong team chemistry all season. They've outscored the Warriors 639-615 through six games. My model favors Houston by five points. I like the Rockets to advance.

The Tampa Bay Lightning have dominated at Amalie Arena all season (29-8-4 home record), but they have already dropped both Games 1 and 2 at home in this series. Tampa Bay has played well in must-win situations and has enough playoff experience to extend this matchup to a game six. Both teams will be missing key players. Florida defenseman Aaron Ekblad has been suspended for two games for his illegal hit on Brandon Hagel and will not suit up. The Lightning will step up at home and win one for the Gipper.

The last three games in this series have been decided by six points or fewer, including Detroit's close 94-93 loss in Game 4. Despite the Knicks' home record of 28-15 in the regular season, their victories in this series have been nail-biters. Teams on the brink of elimination often play with increased urgency, and Detroit has demonstrated the gap between these teams is slim. This series could easily be tied if not for a fourth-quarter collapse by the Pistons in game one. Play Detroit plus the points.

Mitchell Parker has had an outstanding season, posting a 1.39 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP across five starts. Tylor Megill matched his career-high by striking out 10 batters in his previous start, allowing six earned runs in 2021 after achieving a career peak in strikeouts. Megill is averaging only 4.2 innings this season and has not exceeded 5.1 innings in any outing. The Mets' bullpen is dealing with injuries, highlighted by A.J. Minter's injury on Saturday. The Nationals' three and four batters combined 0-for-8 with four strikeouts in yesterday's shutout loss. Play Washington on the run line.

Edmonton is in a must-win game and should be pumped up to return home. The Kings were dominant at Crypto Arena this season but not so much on the road. Play Edmonton.

The Ottawa Senators return home trailing 0-2 in the series, even though they outshot Toronto in both games, with a combined total of 61 shots to Toronto's 45. The Sens outhit the Maple Leafs in both games, 104-58. Ottawa can defeat Toronto, as evidenced by its 3-0 record in the regular season. The atmosphere will be electric for their first postseason home game since 2017. I have to play the home team in this spot.

Zack Littell has a home-to-plate time of 1.51 seconds, which ranks in the bottom 10% of MLB pitchers. Corbin Carroll has a sprint speed of 29.4 ft/s, placing him in the 97th percentile. Carroll has an impressive 89% success rate in stolen bases against pitchers with slow deliveries, according to Statcast. The Tampa Bay Rays' catchers rank 28th in caught-stealing rate, and allow the most stolen bases on the road by a significant margin, averaging 3.3 per game. This is worth a shot at +460.

The Tampa Bay Lightning have been knocked out of the first round of the playoffs in two consecutive seasons. Last year, the Florida Panthers eliminated Tampa Bay in five games. Tampa Bay lost the first two games by one goal at Florida last season. With Tampa Bay at home, they will be able to match up last, which should propel them to a game-one win.

Yordan Alvarez is batting .209 at home in 2025 with 0 HRs in 43 at-bats, a stark decline from his career .296 home average. If there is any pitcher he would break his Minute Maid homerless streak, it would be Chris Bassett. That’s because Alvarez has five HRs in 19 at-bats in his career. Yordan's xSLG (.516) is significantly higher than his slugging percentage (.338). With an average exit velocity ranked in the 94th percentile, it’s just a matter of time for Alvarez to break out. Minute Maid Park ranks seventh for left-handed HRs in 2025, with its short left-field porch (315 feet) favoring pull hitters.

Marcell Ozuna excels at home, with a .719 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching, and he has hit all four of his home runs this season off righties. Additionally, Fedde has a low strikeout rate of 57% in two-strike counts, a whiff percentage of 19.6% (ranking in the 14th percentile), and a chase percentage of 24.1% (in the 25th percentile). Ozuna is 7-for-12 with 2 Home Runs lifetime vs. Erick Fedde and has a hard-hit rate of 56.1% (92nd percentile) and an average exit velocity of 96.5 MPH (100th). Ozuna hit a home run on Sunday and has already cleared the fence in consecutive games this season.

Marcell Ozuna excels at home, with a .719 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching, and he has hit all four of his home runs this season off righties. Additionally, Fedde has a low strikeout rate of 57% in two-strike counts, a whiff percentage of 19.6% (ranking in the 14th percentile), and a chase percentage of 24.1% (in the 25th percentile). Ozuna is 7-for-12 with 2 Home Runs lifetime vs. Erick Fedde has a hard-hit rate of 56.1% (92nd percentile) and an average exit velocity of 96.5 MPH (100th).

Austin Riley has cashed this number in 7 of his last 10 games despite going 0-for-8 with six strikeouts in his previous two games. Simon-Woods Richardson has allowed a hard hit rate of 50% (13th percentile) and a 27.3% ground ball rate (8th). Riley has a hard-hit rate of 54% (89th) and an Expected Slugging average of .549 (85th). Truist Park ranks fourth in adjusted hard-hit percentage over the last three years, and Austin has higher slugging percentages in six of his seven seasons at home (excluding the COVID year) in his career. Truist Park ranks first today (Saturday) in ball travel, exceeding the normal distance by 8%. My model has him pegged for 3.6 total bases.

After a remarkable turnaround from a 14-68 record in 2024 to a 44-38 playoff team, the Pistons enter with momentum. Their underdog mentality and first playoff appearance in years could fuel a gritty performance in game one. The Pistons play with a "tenacious spirit" and aggressive defense that has disrupted New York's rhythm. They rank fifth in possessions, while the Knicks are 25th. With better defensive efficiency, rebounding, and turnover stats, I like the points in this spot.