Jeff's Picks (2 Live)
Jeff's Past Picks
The Toronto Maple Leafs have won five straight games despite being out-shot in each matchup, 159-127. Red Flag. They just completed a home-and-home series against Philadelphia. Fading squads in this role have been profitable against winning teams. Carolina is ranked third in shots against with a +272 shot differential, while Toronto is ranked 28th with a -46 shot differential. The Hurricanes have played the tougher schedule (No. 9 vs. No. 17) and are 11-3 after a loss this season. I like the home team.
This will be the third game in four days for the Boston Bruins, who have played three more games than the Edmonton Oilers this season. The Oilers have a +217 shot differential, while the Bruins are at +38. Additionally, Edmonton has a record of 8-3 when they have two days of rest before a game. I like the road team in this spot.
He has surpassed this number in eight of his last ten games. The Rams have allowed the most receptions (254) and receiving yards (3,127) to slot receivers this season. They may struggle in this matchup with a very young defense and the likelihood of resting starters on both sides of the ball. Jaxon Smith-Njigba recorded 180 receiving yards in the first game at Seattle. Playing in a mostly indoor stadium with a controlled environment suggests that he could exceed 67.5 receiving yards against a Rams defense that may not be fully committed.
The Nashville Predators defeated the Vancouver Canucks 3-0 on Friday, despite getting out-shot 27-19. The Canucks delivered an impressive 51 hits, while the Predators recorded 21 hits. On Thursday, the Calgary Flames allowed three goals in the third period, leading to a 5-3 home loss against Utah. The Predators have a record of 1-5 when playing without rest, and they come off a very physical game last night. I like the Flames in this spot.
The Minnesota Wild are 3-2 in their last five games despite getting outshot in all five games by a significant margin. They tallied three Power Play goals in Tuesday’s win and now must play a road game. Minnesota is ranked 25th in shots allowed with a -35 shot differential and +10 goal differential. Washington is ranked 7th in shots allowed with a +28 shot diffeital and +39 goal differential. The Capitals have played the 3rd hardest schedule, while Minnesota is ranked 16th. The Wild are still without Kirill Kaprizov (50 points in 34 games), which is a huge loss, especially against winning teams. This line is headed much higher. Play the Caps.
The Ohio State Buckeyes played a much more demanding non-conference schedule (No. 5 vs. No. 32) while owning better net yards per play (+2.7 vs. +1.9) overall. Ohio State’s point differential is +24.6, while Oregon is +18.8. The Ducks outgained four of six fellow Bowl teams with an average yards per game of +82. Ohio State outgained six of seven Bowl teams for an average yards per game of +145. Oregon outgained the Buckeyes in that one-point home victory. After that game, Ohio State changed its defensive scheme, which has dramatically helped. I like Ohio State in this revenge spot!
This will be the Jets' second consecutive game in as many days and at high altitude. Tough. Winnipeg got revenge from last year's playoffs by defeating the Avs 1-0 despite getting outshot 35-28 last month. Colorado is ranked 8th in shots allowed per game, while the Jets hold the 23rd position, the worst among all winning teams. The Avalanche have a +87 shot differential, while Winnipeg is at -37 this season, the worst mark of any winning team. Those stats are before Monday’s game. The Jets are 0-3 when playing on back-to-back nights, while Colorado is 1-0 this season when playing with 3+ days of rest. (7-4 last three seasons).
Last season, Missouri defeated Ohio State 14-3 in the Cotton Bowl, which we had as an easy winner. Remember how many players were out for the Buckeyes, including their quarterback Kyle McCord and first-round pick wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.? I don’t think this Missouri team is as talented, and it’s a little bit of a letdown spot playing against Iowa. The Hawkeyes lost 35-0 in last year’s Citrus Bowl, so you know they are highly motivated in this one. Both teams have key opt-outs which are accounted for in the line. A strong system for years in Bowl games is to “play on” teams as underdogs if they lost their previous Bowl game by 30 or more. Grab the points.
This will be the Vikings’ 11th straight game after having their BYE in week six, which should offset Green Bay’s one less day of rest. These teams have split their season series in the last three seasons. Minnesota defeated Green Bay 31-29 as 2.5-point road dogs against a “nicked” Packers squad. Green Bay outgained Minnesota 465-379. The Packers have better net yards per play on both sides of the ball and a better sack differential (+1.8 vs. -0.2). I like the road team in this spot.
The Trojans began their season with a victory over LSU at Allegiant Stadium, the same venue as the Las Vegas Bowl. This familiarity with the environment may give them a slight advantage in comfort and preparation. In contrast, Texas A&M suffered losses in three of their last four games, including their final three conference matchups. They lost three starting defenseman lineman to the transfer portal, which was the strength of their defense. In last year's Holiday Bowl, USC overcame opt-outs and showed up ready to play, bringing the fight to Louisville. This experience suggests that Lincoln Riley and his staff know how to motivate and prepare the team for postseason play. USC also lost some key players, but they have a deep roster. Dog call.
The LA Rams are overrated, ranking 21st in net yards per play, while the Jets are ranked 7th. The Rams have a net yards per play of -0.53 in road games, while the Jets are +0.76 at home. The Jets' secondary is healthy, with D.J. Reed a full participant at practice. The Jets are significantly better in key defensive metrics for passing and running. The Rams are a dome team playing outdoors in freezing weather. Last season, Matthew Stafford had a record of 1-1 straight up and 0-2 against the spread in two games played when the temperatures were below 40 degrees. His win was a 1-point victory in East Rutherford against the Giants as 4-point chalk. Aaron Rodgers has consistently excelled in freezing conditions.
This line seems high to me. Tennessee has a +83-yard differential against fellow bowl teams, while Ohio State is +18. The Volunteers own a +6 point differential against fellow bowl teams, while the Buckeye are +5. Tennessee also has better yards per point on both sides of the ball against bowl teams this season. Don’t forget, The Vols and Penn State are the only teams to hold five opponents to season-low yardage. Tennessee is ranked higher in down-by-down consistency, ranking 28th compared to 36th for the Buckeyes. Both teams have solid kickers. However, Tennessee is ranked 43rd in net punt yards, while Ohio State is ranked 94th. The Vols went 7-5 ATS this season, including 4-0 when playing on Field Turf. Grab the points.
No team has lost more players to the transfer portal than the Mountaineers after firing head coach Neal Brown. The Tigers' high-powered offense, 35.2 points per game, should exploit West Virginia's vulnerable defense that allows 31.1 points. Memphis Senior QB Seth Henigan (Texas native) and running back Mario Anderson form a potent offensive duo that will challenge the Mountaineers' 106th-ranked defense. Memphis is riding a wave of momentum, starkly contrasting West Virginia's interim head coaching issues. The Tigers are highly motivated, aiming to defeat a Power-5 team, and their bowl game success (3-0 run) further strengthens their chances to win. The players have a strong affection for head coach Ryan Silverfield, who stands to earn a $50,000 bonus with a victory.