Sportsline

The Dodgers are 7-0 in Eric Lauer’s starts this season. …

Slade Cecconi’s opponents are over this line in 74% of his starts. …

Juan Soto is out for the Mets. ...

The Giants aren't hitting in a four-game skid. ...

Sandy Alcantara has pitched his way out of a slump. ...

Toronto has lost six of seven. ...

Look for longer trends to straighten out. ...

Take this struggling pitcher to clear this line for the seventh time in eight home starts. …

Will Mitch Keller find success against the Yankees lefty-heavy order? ...

Which pitcher should be trusted more in Wednesday's matchup?

Should Valter Walker be a bigger favorite? ...

Jose Cabrera isn't eligible to come back to the MLB just yet after being optioned, which opens the door for the MLB debut of young southpaw Kohl Drake tonight against the A's. If you look at Drake's game log for Reno (AAA), he's finished five full innings in just 5/16 starts this year, albeit Reno isn't the easiest place to pitch, but this line is at his consistent limit and it's his debut against MLB hitters... It also isn't like he has some sparkling numbers at AAA, with a 6.92 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. He's had command issues with a 4.21 BB/9, walking multiple batters in seven of his last nine starts, so he'll need to be exceptional and efficient to complete five innings.

Since June 1, Seattle ranks last in the majors in team batting average, OBP, and OPS. Luis Castillo takes the mound tonight and has been inconsistent for much of the season, posting a 5.26 ERA at home. The Mariners have also lost four of his last five starts.The Reds were held scoreless last night and should be motivated behind Chase Burns, as they have averaged 7.18 runs over his last 11 starts. Cincinnati has also won 10 of those 11 games. Burns has yet to lose a road start, posting a 2.75 ERA away from home, and should have success against a Mariners team that continues to struggle with strikeouts.

Caesar’s. This reads as a big-time plus-spot for Chase Burns hiding in plain sight. His matchup, the Mariners, check almost every box in the strikeout department for tonight. Firstly, they are left-handed heavy (Burns has a 30% and 31% K% and whiff rate respectively against southpaws). As a team, Seattle also really struggles against power pitching, with a 30% K% and only a .672 OPS. And over the last 750 plate appearances against right handed pitching, the Mariners have really struggled with a 23.5% K% and a .598 OPS. Burns himself is over this line in 13/18 starts, including 8/9 on the road.

Kohl Drake makes his MLB debut for the trending-upward Snakes, who have won six of eight. He hasn’t been very good at Triple-A Reno (6.92 ERA) but he can have a short leash – Arizona’s bullpen has a 3.18 ERA since the Fourth – and the A’s have a paltry .498 OPS on the road this month. Drake may be a relative unknown, but we know Athletics starter Jack Perkins (8.19 ERA his last seven games) doesn’t have it, and the bullpen behind him (9.14 ERA last two weeks) is just as ineffective.

Chase Burns is reminiscent of what Luis Castillo was nearly 10 years ago, ironically also for the Reds. Burns owns an 11-1 record, a 2.54 ERA, a 3.16 expected ERA, a 3.40 FIP and a 1.11 WHIP. He demonstrates strong bat-missing ability, posting a 28.6% strikeout rate and a 31.7% whiff rate. His arsenal features a high-90s mph four-seam fastball (113 Stuff+) paired with a low-90s mph slider that holds opposing batters to a .182 expected batting average and produces a 37.4% chase rate. Castillo has pitched better of late, but I’m fading his season-long metrics. He has a 4.93 ERA, a 4.16 FIP, and an opponent batting average of .264, which is higher than the league average of .242. First five avoids bullpen variance.

Angels rookie Walbert Urena continues to put up impressive outings. He's allowed an expected slugging percentage of .290 with an actual ERA of 2.88. The Cards counter with lefty Matthew Liberatore, who owns a 5.44 road ERA. Batters are slugging .512 against him away from St. Louis. Back the lowly Angels to win their third straight.

Jake McCarthy has a seven-game hitting streak going in his breakout year playing for the Rockies. He's also got a great shot of hitting his 11th home run of the year today off of Miles Mikolas of the Nationals. Four games have passed since he last hit a home run at San Francisco, and I think Mikolas' poor Colorado history will help him find his power source (Carson Palmquist is the opener for Washington). McCarthy is a football player from Scranton who plays baseball, and Arizona gave up on him after 5 years only to watch him flourish in Colorado. He leads the Rockies with a .305 batting average. He's the number two player in the Rockies offense, and he's just reaching his potential.

I am never OK losing a bet, to be clear, but this game I'm playing in some ways for my pure enjoyment with two horrible starting pitchers in Miles Mikolas and Michael Lorenzen. But a F5 total of 7.5?! That's pretty massive; not sure if I have ever seen an 8, but I'm not checking F5 totals every day (maybe in one of those Vegas or Mexico City games). Each team could score one run in three of the first five innings tonight, and we still cash easy is the way I look at it. These are still big-league pitchers. But 5-4 after one inning also wouldn't shock me.

Munetaka Murakami to get just one hit tonight (-160) has some value but I like the Total Bases and Hits, Runs and RBI as good bets. Kumar Rocker has been bad over his last couple starts and has really struggled with left handed batters, giving up a 60% hard hit rate and .381 xwOBA. I would not be surprised to see the Rangers avoid pitching to Murakami here, and he's been walking a ton anyways, so I also bet the 1+ and 2+ walks for 0.5u and 0.25u respectively, but if Rocker gives the slugging lefty something to hit, I love getting solid plus odds for a hit that goes for extra bases.

The Milwaukee Brewers are tied with the Dodgers for the most wins in baseball at sixty three. They’ve won all four games post All Star break, and are coming off eight runs in yesterday’s victory over the New York Mets. Brice Turang cleared his combination line yesterday with an RBI, run, and a double. Each of the last two times he has hit a double, he has followed up with a home run the very next game. Take Turang over on his combination line, and would not mind a wager on a home run as well.

The Braves have won four of five and are scoring 7.2 runs per game across those games. Over the last two weeks, their home OPS is 1.010, its OPS vs. right-handers at .862. That’s well above the similar splits of the Padres, and also bad news for San Diego starter Walker Buehler, who has a 6.89 ERA over his last seven and a 6.50 ERA on the road all year. Reynaldo Lopez has allowed one run in three of his four starts since joining the rotation. He’ll only go five innings but the Braves bullpen is rested and steady.

San Diego pitcher Walker Buehler was quite good in June but has been quite bad in July at 0-2 with a 16.36 ERA in three starts. And on the road this year, a 6.50 ERA. The Padres are just 2-10 in their past 12 away. A few Braves have pretty good splits off "Buehler? Buehler?" Atlanta is 3-1 out of the break. Reynaldo Lopez is 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA at home.

This is a great price point considering Kevin Gausmans career numbers against Tampa Bay coupled with how good Tampa’s lineup has been this season. The Rays just snapped a losing streak and I like their chances of having success at the plate today. Tampas lineup has elite career numbers versus Gausman over a significant sample size.

Kevin Gausman has been a blowtorch, 0-5 with a 6.69 ERA in his last eight starts. What’s more, this Rays lineup is a lifetime 40-of-109 off him, a robust .367 average. Toronto has scored two runs over its last three games and here gets Drew Rasmussen, who’s good everywhere but especially on the road (.198 average, 0.87 WHIP). Rasmussen and a solid Rays bullpen (2.91ERA since July 7) can limit the struggling Jays bats.

A pair of struggling veteran aces hook up in Toronto with Kevin Gausman facing Drew Rasmussen. I have a lot more faith in Rasmussen finding his form. And when it comes to the offenses, there's no comparison lately. Tampa Bay ranks fifth in OPS (.789) over the past 30 days, while Toronto ranks last (.624). The Blue Jays have mustered six runs in four games since the All-Star Break. Back the Rays up to -120.