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Can the Phillies avoid the sweep at home on Sunday night?

Here. We. Go!

After getting only one hit yesterday in a shutout loss to Dylan Cease and Toronto, I'm backing Boston to win the weekend series against the AL East doormats. The Blue Jays have lost seven straight Kevin Gausman starts as the veteran right hander continues to give up plenty of runs and simultaneously get little run support. Red Sox starter Ranger Suarez threw eight innings of one-hit ball with 10 strikeouts against Toronto in April. I think the home team continues their impressive roll as they try to climb back into the American League playoff race.

Despite losing four of their last five games, the Pirates continue to show significant improvement offensively this season. Pittsburgh is batting .272 at home and will face Jameson Taillon, who owns a 5.38 ERA. In 11 career innings against Pittsburgh, Taillon has allowed 10 earned runs and five home runs. Braxton Ashcraft has been one of the Pirates' most consistent starters this season, especially at home, where he has posted a 3.68 ERA. Pittsburgh has also been one of the top teams in the majors against right-handed pitching at home.

The Rays have won five of their last six games after having a 5 game losing streak. Tampa Bay will tell you that winning is much better than losing, and I think they want to keep winning at home and sweep Cleveland this weekend. Drew Rasmussen won his last outing against Toronto 12-2, where he allowed two runs in five innings, but I think this is more about the team knowing where they are right now. When Tampa Bay is at home, they are 37-15. While they're at home, they’re going for another sweep Sunday. Tampa Bay to win.

DraftKings. Andre Pallante has stayed under this line in 12/19 starts. He’s the rare groundball pitcher (94th percentile) who is also able to suppress hard contact (75th percentile), leading to a .240 xBA (ground ball pitchers are typically failed by the xBA metric). The Reds are not a good righty-hitting team (.234 over the last 30 days), and have a baffling approach at the plate. Pallante pumps the zone, not ideal for an under in the hits allowed department (efficient with his pitches), but the Reds have the fourth lowest zone swing rate.

DraftKings. Nolan McLean is rolling - he’s cleared this line in each of his last six starts. But the rookie arguably faces the toughest matchup of his young career with the Dodgers. The two-time champs do not chase, with the second lowest out of zone swing rate, and drive up pitch counts at 3.94 per plate appearance. Look for the Dodgers, who’ve accrued a 122 wRC+ over their last 300+ road plate appearances against righties, to push the rookie.

Two things you should never do: Go to Costco hungry (end up spending the GNP of a small island nation on five pounds of tater tots that I end up throwing out anyways) or bet angry. I'm definitely a bit irked at the Tigers losing so will go ahead and chase that with this. Not much of a road guy in anything but no Juan Soto for the Mets makes this relatively palatable. Now I go eat my 10 gallons of Dinty Moore beef stew -- which apparently never expires. If there is a nuclear winter, I am definitely good right now.

Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Bryan Woo has had his issues on the road this season with an era of 6.28. Since getting a win at Houston on May 12th, Seattle has lost each of the last five road starts from Woo. In what is an important series for Seattle, I expect Woo’s road woes to end today. Nathan Eovaldi is coming off giving up three home runs his last start against Atlanta, and Texas has lost five out of his last six starts against Seattle. Back the Mariners.

You are probably fine taking Rangers moneyline, but I'm just not wired that way -- if I get among our limited options what I think is a wrong number, I'm going to take it. I prefer insurance as you probably can tell from all my parlays. Honestly don't get why Seattle is favored as Bryan Woo is the most schizo home/road starter in the majors. Dude looks like Cy Young at home but Anthony Young away (1-6, 6.28 ERA). "Woo-woo-woo" has allowed at least four runs in six straight road games.

Three starts into his season and Hunter Greene is getting into the swing of things for the Reds. After a brutal opening start, his last two have been of the quality variety, including a seven-inning, zero-run, 12-strikeout gem vs. the Cubs. The Cardinals have no such firepower and have dropped six of seven, scoring two runs or less in four of the last five games. Cincinnati has post-All-Star break OPS splits on the road and vs. right-handers nearing .800, and Cardinals RHP Andre Pallante has struggled at Busch.

Bryce Elder has allowed 14 runs over his last three road starts while also owning 5.31 ERA on the road. Brandon Young has been excellent at home with a 3.04 ERA and the Orioles have a top bullpen post All-Star break. Baltimore only lost two of its last 10 games and are one of the hottest teams baseball right now.

Yep, I see this number. So I'm going two units to match it. That's how much I prefer insurance. The Guardians don't have much lefty power and their one guy who does, stellar rookie Chase DeLauter, is sitting. Cleveland has lost three in a row and not hitting much as it is. The Rays haven't lost a Nick Martinez start since mid-June. And I don't even need a win. Cleveland plays a ton of one-run games (35) because of weak lineup.

I think the price here on the Rays is a bit light for two teams kind of going in different directions. Just because Jose Ramirez is back now doesn't make the Rays offense any easier to navigate, and I don't trust Tanner Bibee to successfully get through the first half of this game without giving up multiple runs. He allowed seven baserunners in five innings earlier this year when they faced off but escaped with just one run allowed. I don't see him being that lucky today. Bibee has struggled vs. lefties, with a .359 wOBA and ISO over .250 of late, allowing 20 homers with 14 coming against lefties and the Rays project to have seven lefties in the lineup today.

Caesar’s / FanDuel. Ryan Weathers has really struggled of late, pitching to a 6.00 ERA over his last nine starts while staying under this line in each of his last four outings (and 11/19 overall). Injury plagued throughout his career, Weathers is already at his highest innings output since 2023, and fatigue is likely setting in for the lefty. With a rested bullpen, and following a dominant Cam Schlittler performance last night, look for a quick hook on Weathers if he struggles early tonight.

Bit of a confusing number for me. Is Aaron Judge back for the Yankees? Nope. We are getting the Phils at a pretty generous +1.5 number at home because it's rookie Brian Keller (at age 32!! Good for you Crash Davis, never give up on that dream) expected to make his big-league debut either as the opener or bulk guy. But it's not like New York's Ryan Weathers (3-7, 4.40 ERA) is all that great and has been rocked in two of his past three. So, yeah, I'd still favor Philly at home so will take this gift.

Before joining the Phillies organization, Brian Keller spent six years climbing through the New York Yankees’ minor league system. He has put together a strong minor league resume, posting a 3.11 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 616 strikeouts over 593 2/3 innings. This year, Keller has continued to impress, pitching to a 2.09 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and recording 41 strikeouts in 39 1/3 innings. Ryan Weathers has a 4.40 ERA and a 4.56 expected ERA. He has already logged a career-high 102 1/3 innings this season. The Phillies have fared well against Weathers in the past, hitting .368 with a 1.426 OPS in 36 career at-bats. Kyle Schwarber is 3-for-6 with a double and two home runs. I like the home dog in this spot.