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4 Expert Picks
The Guardians are 1-6 when Slade Cecconi starts this season...
Slade Cecconi should be faded. ...
Chet Holmgren has posted similar stats for two straight games. ...
James Harden has been active in this particular category over his last four games. …
The Spurs, after breezing past Portland, weren't ready for the intense defense Minnesota brought in Game 1. Look for a huge bounceback Wednesday in front of San Antonio's raucous home crowd. Yes, Anthony Edwards and Ayo Dosunmu are good to go. But I'm expecting a lot more offensively from Victor Wembanyama and De'Aaron Fox. We should get urgency and a supremely focused effort from the Spurs.
Game 1 totaled 206 points (a 104-102 Wolves win). But the Spurs are averaging 123.8 ppg since Jan. 31. The Wolves defense has stepped up in the playoffs, allowing 105 ppg in the last six. That said, De'Aaron Fox and Victor Wembanyama had major issues, including 0-for-12 on 3’s. Wemby had 12 blocks in Game 1; that’s unlikely to happen again, offering a boost to Minnesota. And Anthony Edwards should get more minutes after a successful return in Game 1.
De’Aaron Fox shot 5-of-14 in Game 1 and was blanked in the first half of the Spurs’ two-point loss to the Timberwolves. Victor Wembanyama also didn’t play well, so I think both step up. But Fox especially, as you know Minnesota is going to focus more on Wemby. He has a history of doing very well in games after duds.
Naz Reid played 30 minutes in Game 1, the same amount as Rudy Gobert. He has cleared this prop total in six straight games. Minnesota only plays three bigs -- Gobert, Julius Randle and Naz Reid. Even with blowout potential, I like Reid to be very involved yet again.
Historically, this is a good bounce-back spot. Dating back to post Covid in 2021, home favorites who lose Game 1 are 19-3 in the first quarter of Game 2. Against the spread, the number is 14-8 in favor of the bounce-back spot.
Over his last four playoff games, Spurs' Dylan Harper is averaging 27.5 minutes off the bench. He's hit 10+ points in four of his last five games and in 15 of his last 18 games, seeing extended minutes. In Game 1, he had 18 points on 13 FGA and is averaging 10 attempts a game over his last four games.
FanDuel. Dylan Harper’s role has grown for the Spurs throughout these playoffs, as the rotation has shrunk. The rookie lead the Spurs bench with 28 minutes in Game 1, as San Antonio opted to play only 7 guys more than 10 minutes. Harper should once again be in line for a strong role, against a Timberwolves defense that makes you beat them on the ball. Look for the rookie to follow up his 17-point performance with another strong game tonight.
Rudy Gobert’s defensive prowess has been on full display during the playoffs. In Game 1, he came away with four steals and one block. However, he finished with a modest 17 combined points and rebounds. Over seven playoff games, he is averaging 7.6 points and 10.6 rebounds. He isn’t scoring much because he is averaging only 6.1 shot attempts per game. This is a difficult matchup against Victor Wembanyama, so look for Gobert to continue to provide minimal scoring contributions and hit this under.
Despite an extremely impressive regular season and opening round, San Antonio finds themselves down 0-1 to a very game and dangerous Timberwolves squad. De’Aaron Fox was often passive and I expect him to be significantly immortal aggressive in a must win Game 2. We saw glimpses of his potency in the opening round and I still contend that Fox is one of the best crunch time scorers in the league and capable of eclipsing this combo line in one half if he’s aggressive. This feels like a spot he’s going to put the team on his back. I also like his points line at 17.5 if you don’t have access to his PA.
I had a chance to see Game 1 up close and personal between these Pacific division rivals. After 60 minutes I came away with a few major observations: one of which that the Ducks are going to be the faster team all series but that Vegas won't stray from their identity. Anaheim was the better team at 5 on 5 but if you're going to win games against a structured opponent like the VGK squandering chances won't work. I really believe we're in for a longer series than oddsmakers think and while it's scary fading Vegas off that lackluster effort Monday I really believe the Ducks will bear down and convert against Hart. This price is too much for me to pass up here.
The Chicago Cubs in back to back games have come through late to cash and keep their home winning streak alive to 13 games. Both games the Reds let slip away, but today is an opportunity to make amends. A year ago the Reds were 3 and 0 when seeing Colin Rea, including spoiling a career high 11 strikeout performance. Back the Reds to get in the win column.












