Larry's Past Picks
Sandy Alcantara is giving up hard contact at an alarming rate (48.9 percent), and I like the Angels' bats to stay hot Friday. LA has won seven straight and just averaged 6.8 runs on a 10-game trip. Angels starter Yusei Kikuchi is coming off a strong outing against the Dodgers, owns a 2.38 ERA this month, and should fare well versus a Marlins' team sporting a .663 OPS against left-handed pitching.
One of the Knicks' advantages in this series is Karl-Anthony Towns using his varied offensive game vs. Myles Turner. KAT has now scored 30, 40 and 35 points in his last three meetings with the Pacers. This is a must-win for New York, so I expect Towns to play 35-plus minutes. He "only" played 39 minutes in Game 1, compared to three others Knicks' starters who played at least 42. He was plus-9 for the game, the only starter to record a positive plus-minus.
The Blue Jays own a .793 OPS over the past 15 days and I like them to do at least a little damage versus Drew Rasmussen, whose expected ERA of 3.47 isn't as impressive as his actual ERA of 2.93. Rasmussen has allowed a 42.2 percent hard-hit rate. Toronto has averaged 5.6 runs over its last 10 games. Back the Jays to at least be tied through five.
Jaden McDaniels played just 24 minutes before fouling out of Game 1, but he still collected at least six rebounds for the fifth straight time versus OKC. In Game 2, the defensive stalwart should return to his normal role playing about 35 minutes. Post-All Star Break, McDaniels has averaged 6.1 rebounds. He is critical in this matchup and should get the minutes he needs to go Over 5.5 again.
Donte DiVincenzo went 3 for 14 in Game 1, part of a horrific shooting perfomance from the Timberwolves' bench. That includes DiVincenzo going 1 of 9 on wide-open 3-point attempts. The Thunder will continue focusing on Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle, locking down the paint, and daring Minnesota's role players to shoot. What's encouraging is that DiVincenzo played 30 minutes to Mike Conley's 23 and that he repeatedly got good looks. Look for DiVincenzo to hit a few open shots and also penetrate and create more in Game 2.
Mike Burrows makes his first major-league start for Pittsburgh after dominating in Triple-A. There were a lot of red flags in his minor-league performance, however, including stranding 93 percent of his baserunners -- an unsustainable figure. The price has come down to the point where there's value on the Brewers. Milwaukee will start veteran Aaron Civale as he returns from a hamstring injury. The Pirates own MLB's worst offense and sport a .541 OPS over the past seven days.
Josh Hart collected 10 rebounds in each of the regular-season matchups with Indiana, and I bet it to happen again Wednesday. The Pacers' penchant for pushing the pace increases possessions, and the ironman Hart should be fully rested and ready to play 40-plus minutes after being off since Friday.
Bennedict Mathurin averaged 16.1 points during the regular season, and he averaged 25.3 points in three games against the Knicks. After a somewhat disappointing first-round series against Milwaukee, Mathurin shot 51.4 percent against the Cavaliers, including 41.2 percent from deep. In the Pacers' fast-paced offense, he is a valuable weapon who often leads the bench in minutes. This number sits at 10.5 at many books, and I would still play it Over there.
Naz Reid went for 19 points, eight rebounds and one assist in the one regular-season meeting in which Minnesota and OKC were both at full strength. He's shooting 46.7 percent from deep in the playoffs. With the Thunder's elite interior defense, the Timberwolves would be wise to lean on Reid and his sweet outside shot. Reid went off in the opening games vs. the Lakers and Warriors, and I like him to make a big impact at OKC on Tuesday.
These are two teams headed in opposite directions, with the A's having lost five straight and the Angels coming off a sweep of the mighty Dodgers. But the A's should fare well against Jose Soriano; current Athletics own a 1.070 OPS against him (27 at-bats). JT Ginn returns to the majors for the Athletics after three dominating starts at Triple-A Las Vegas. The A's have owned this series lately and this looks like a good bounceback spot for them.
The Astros are 9-13 on the road and are at a starting pitching disadvantage in this one. This is Colton Gordon's second major-league start. In the first, he induced just two swinging strikes while allowing three barrels. He gave up seven hits, two walks and three earned runs in 4.1 innings vs. the Royals. Rays starter Ryan Pepiot is having a solid May, posting a 3.31 ERA in starts against the Blue Jays, Phillies and Yankees. Neither team is hitting much lately -- Houston owns a .610 OPS over the past week, compared to Tampa Bay's .667 -- but I bet the Rays to lead after five innings.
The Nuggets have played two competitive games in Oklahoma City in this series. In those games, Nikola Jokic grabbed 22 and 15 rebounds. I believe Denver will not get blown out in Game 7, even with Aaron Gordon (hamstring) ailing. That should keep Jokic on the floor for about 44 minutes. Gordon potentially being limited means an even bigger rebounding burden will fall on Jokic. So I bet Jokic to grab at least 14 rebounds. Many books are moving to 14.5, the Over priced at plus money. I'd play that for a half-unit.
Mikal Bridges is averaging 43.2 minutes in this series. He produces significantly better offensive numbers at home. With Boston focused on slowing Jalen Brunson, I bet on Bridges to bounce back and score at least 15 points.
Ranger Suarez is 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA lifetime against the Pirates, and I bet him to continue that mastery Friday night. Pittsburgh averages a major-league low 3.07 runs, which drops to 2.73 on the road. The Phils should have success against Andrew Heaney, who has an expected ERA of 4.32 and has allowed a collective OPS of 1.066 to current Philadelphia batters (32 at-bats). The Phils sport a .789 OPS at home this season and
With Michael Porter disappearing, Jamal Murray took it upon himself to take 27 shots in Game 5. Murray is averaging over six free-throw attempts in this series, though he's only cleared this prop total twice. But Murray usually steps up in these situations, averaging 27.8 points in 11 career playoff elimination games. "We're going to go play the game in Denver, and then we get to come back" to OKC for Game 7, Murray told reporters after the Game 5 loss. Look for Murray to back up his comments with a big scoring performance.