This is a must win game for Michael Porter Jr. and the Denver Nuggets who are still fighting for playoff seeding. I also like that we’re working with a 240+ point total in what should be a competitive paced up environment. MPJ averages over 20 PPG with Jamal Murray missing in the lineup this season, in addition to averaging more points at home versus on the road. I’d play this up to 19.5 for a full unit.

Ja Morant is looking like an All-NBA guard and MVP candidate since the Grizzlies moved on from Head Coach Taylor Jenkins. Morant has cleared this line in 7 of his previous 10 appearances and has seen his usage and minutes spike as the Grizz look to avoid the Play-In. This is a must win game for both teams and I expect Morant to play upwards of 38-40 minutes.

Harrison Barnes has exploded over his last four outings totaling 84 points and making a whopping 13 of 25 three point field goals. While Barnes has stepped up, he’s an incredibly streaky and inconsistent scorer and we’re getting an inflated line here in what would certainly qualify as a difficult matchup. In addition to ranking 4th in total defense, the Clippers guard the perimeter very well surrendering the third lowest three point field goal percentage. The Spurs are heavy underdogs tonight as well which could result in fewer minutes for Barnes. I’d play this up to (-175).

This is a sizable discount for Anthony Edwards who I believe has cemented himself as a top 5 player in the league. Ant has been on a tear his last three games and it would not surprise me to see him raise his game to another level in the playoffs as the team gears up for another deep run. I have him projected at over 39 PRA tonight. I would play this at 36.5 for a full unit.

Matas Buzelis has been playing great basketball for the young Bulls, however this is a large line for the exciting rookie. Buzelis has displayed tantalizing upside and looks to have All-Star upside but look a lot of rookies still struggles from a consistency standpoint. This looks like a good spot to fade him on the road, versus a good Cleveland defense, that defends opposing wings well, in addition to Chicago being double digit underdogs. Considering there are lots of ways Buzelis stays under this line, we’ll take our chances here.

This is shaping up to be one of the greatest MVP races ever as SGA and Nikola Jokic are having two of the greatest individual seasons in NBA history. While Jokic is playing outstanding basketball, SGA has been brilliant on both ends of the court. We’re getting a discount on this scoring line as he averages 32.6 PPG and will be looking to put a bow in this potential Western Conference Finals preview.

Right back to the fade Giddey well, who to his credit has certainly made some strides when it comes to his shooting and overall offensive development. However he’s still shaky from the perimeter and couple that with an opponent that plays slow and defends opposing guards well, this is a natural spot to fade Giddey. I’d play this down to 19.5.

Deni Avdija is playing some great basketball and made me look a bit foolish when he erupted for a Luka-esque stat line is his last outing. Well he’s gotten close to a Luka level combo line. I feel confidently that this may be the only time we ever see Avdija north of a 40 PRA line in his career. I’d play this down to 39.5.

Locking this prop in as I expect it to close around 31.5 or even 32.5. This is a must win game for Giannis and company and while the Sixers are essentially a G League roster, their opponents are averaging over 125 PPG over their last 10 games. Giannis should have his way in this matchup and he’s more than capable of getting home in a blowout. Giannis has scored 30+ in five consecutive games.

This is a huge combo line for Deni Avdija who has been playing great basketball, however this is inflated. It I worth noting that Anfernee Simons is Questionable, however he’s yet to miss a game due to the injury that’s bothering him, in addition his backup Dalano Blanton being a volume scorer. The Hawks are a good matchup but I am fading Avdija at this number regardless of the opponent.

We’re going right back to fading Josh Giddey however his PRA line is significantly lower so I’m pivoting to his points. While Giddey has certainly developed offensively and improved his shot, I still would argue regression is coming. There is no better perimeter defense in the league than OKC. There is also some major blowout potential here. I’d play this down to 18.5.

Kel’el Ware has been a key rotational player for the suddenly rebuilding Miami Heat squad who are still fighting in both their division and the playoff picture. While Ware has been a promising rookie, this line is inflated, even in what would certainly qualify as a good matchup. Ware is averaging approximately 22 PRA in March which has been his most productive stretch of the season, however he has failed to eclipse this in 12 of his last 15 games. There is also some blowout potential here as well as the Wizards have nothing to play for.

We unsuccessfully backed Domantas Sabonis in his last game but we’re going right back to the proverbial well. We’re getting a discount on this combination line as Sabonis averages over 39 PRA per game. This is also a much better matchup against a Pacers team that ranks eighth in possessions per game. This is a must win game for Sacramento and the game projects to be competitive and features a healthy 235 point total. I expect this line to close at 37.5 or higher.

Amen Thompson has been a revelation for the young Rockets who have taken the Western Conference by storm and currently own the number 2 seed in what is a stacked playoff picture. Thompson who has a strong case as the NBA’s MIP, has earned a big role and is able to contribute in a myriad of ways while routinely posting double doubles and piling up plenty of helpers. This looks like a good spot considering we’re getting a discount on this combo line, in addition to being a strong matchup, in a game that projects to be competitive as well.

The Phoenix Suns are broken and while I consider Devin Booker one of the best players in the league, the team is playing with no cohesion, the body language is terrible, and there are reports of infighting. Booker has struggled this season and he is playing out of position as the teams primary playmaker. Booker has also struggled against the top defenses in the league and he will be facing a top 3 defense in the Rockets. Almost all of Booker’s numbers are down this year, including his efficiency, and its culminated in a rough March where he’s averaging just 22/8/4 and has been held under this line in 10 of his last 15 appearances.