Alex's Picks (3 Live)
Alex's Past Picks
Nikola Vucevic is having a career best season despite being in his 14th season in the NBA. While it's certainly not unheard of to peak late, I would argue that Vucevic is a significant regression candidate and his shooting splits are not sustainable. Vucevic will face a Pacers team that in recent seasons has been arguably the best matchup considering their pace of play was always top 3 and they struggled defensively, however that has not been the case this season as they rank 11th in pace and are more of a neutral matchup.
Amen Thompson has a very bright future in the NBA and looks like he may be an All-Star sooner than later. That being said, Thompson is a raw scorer and the majority of his offense comes on fast breaks, dunks, and out hustling the opposing team. Thompson doesn't possess a reliable jumper and while he does a lot of things very well on the court, he is a one dimensional scorer. The Rockets are also 13 point favorites which provides some significant blowout potential that could lead to fewer minutes.
Credit to my surrogate Uncle Dave Richard for turning my attention to this play that I absolutely love. This has potential spike week written all over for Jefferson who has routinely torched the Lions defense. Speaking of Detroit their defense has completely imploded in recent weeks and this is a must win game with a large projected total with plenty to play for on both sides. I expect Jefferson to bet the focal points of the gameplan and have a monster performance.
Geno Smith is 185 yards shy of a 2 million dollar contract bonus, in addition to heading into the final year of a 75 million dollar contract. Seattle can save a whopping 25 million by cutting or trading Smith ahead next season. Smith can actually earn a total of 6 million dollars based on how her performs Sunday against the Rams backups. Seahawks HC Mike Macdonald has already stated that Smith is starting and I expect Geno to be aggressive as he looks to not only hit numerous incentives but show well in what could be his final game a Seahawk.
This line is fairly shocking considering Hield has failed to score 15+ points in nine consecutive games, while shooting a dismal 22-71 over that span, that is an ugly 31% from the field. Hield has also failed to play 30 minutes over that span and while the Warriors are going to be without Steph Curry, they still have a fairly deep rotation and I don't anticipate Hield getting a significant bump in playing time. I expected this line to be at most 10.5 or 11.5.
This has been a line I've continued to attack as Collin Sexton averages 3.8 assists per game, in addition to having never averaged 5 or more assists in a season since entering the league. Sexton is a scorer and his primary function is to score when on the court. Out of sheer necessity due to injuries in the Jazz backcourt, primarily to Keyonte George, Sexton has functioned as the teams PG but it is unnatural. Sexton has some extreme splits with and without George in the lineup and averages nearly 3 APG when George has been inactive this season. This would also qualify as a difficult matchup as not only are Miami significant favorites, but they play slowly and are good defensively.
I love this spot to back Devin Booker coming off of back to back games where he was held under 20 points. As a result, we're getting a heft discount on this scoring line in what is projected to be an uptempo affair with a solid 231 point total. Bradley Beal is also questionable which would increase Booker's usage even further if he were to sit. Either way this is the type of game environment conducive to big scoring games.
Trayce Jackson Davis has been on a tear having scored double digits in six consecutive games. While he's certainly been aggressive offensively, his efficiency has begun to dip and I believe hes performing above his head. I would also consider this a difficult matchup in a game where hes going to face Joel Embiid and there is a tiny 216 point total. Any time you're tasked with defending Embiid, foul trouble is a serious concern as well.
Jumping on this line as it's been steaming north since it populated. This looks like a good spot for Anthony Edwards who has had a quiet month of December. Prior to that AE was averaging nearly 30 PPG so we're getting a sizable discount here. This game will have a lot of eyeballs on it and I think Edwards will be up for it.
Collin Sexton has been the primary distributor for the Utah Jazz as Guards Keyonte George and Jordan Clarkson have been in and out of the lineup recently. Both guards are off the injury report which will result in few minutes for Sexton, in addition to fewer ball handling duties. Sexton is a scorer first and foremost and with George and Clarkson active he has routinely been held under this line. There is also some significant blowout potential here against a red hot Knicks team.
Trey Murphy has been one of the few bright spots for the pitiful Pelicans who are a league worst 5-28 having lost 10 straight games and 19 of their last 20 games, yikes. Murphy had a great month of December however this is a hefty combo line having failed to eclipse 29 PRA in 12/20 appearances this season. I would also consider this a difficult matchup considering Miami is 10th in Defensive Efficiency, in addition to play at the 4th slowest pace. Furthermore, Miami are 8.5 point favorites which provides us with some blowout potential. I'd play this down to 27.5.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are playing tremendous basketball and sport an outstanding and NBA best record of 28-4. While they're getting contributions everywhere, Donovan Mitchell has been highly efficient. We're getting a discount on his scoring line as Mitchell is averaging 23.6 PPG.