Josh Hart led the NBA in minutes per game. ..

We successfully backed Julius Randle in Game 1 of this series, but we’re going to fade the former All-Star tonight. Randle has certainly been tremendous in these playoffs and done a lot to shed his playoff disappointment label. With that being said, Randle is playing above his head and I don’t believe his current shooting splits are sustainable, particularly from behind the arc. Couple that with facing the best three point defense in the league, on the road, where the Wolves are nearly double digit underdogs, in addition to a low total, this looks like a great spot to fade him to me. I’d play this for a full unit at 19.5.

Prior to this season, Julius Randle had really struggled in his previous postseason appearances. Fast forward to this year and not only is Randle playing well but he’s significantly elevated his play and is averaging nearly 5 additional PPG from the regular season. Randle has eclipsed this in four consecutive games and averaged 39 PRA against Golden State. The 3x All-Star had a pair of double digit assist games and is routinely stuffing the staff sheet and contributing in a myriad of ways. Look for Anthony Edwards to continue to command a lot of attention and Randle has taken advantage.

Rudy Gobert has really struggled throughout the postseason and has largely been ineffective. Aside from a single game in each series, Gobert is averaging just 5.5 PPG and has been off the floor during crunch time and in the 4th quarter. Now Gobert is facing an elite OKC defense that should give him fits. I expect Minnesota to play Naz Reid more in this series which will come at Goberts expense.

This number suggests a bump in usage and that Aaron Gordon is doubtful to suit up for Game 7. Christian Braun has played great basketball but this is a tough spot for the former Kansas Jayhawk. Even if Aaron Gordon doesn’t suit up there is some significant blowout potential and Braun is facing the leagues best defense on the road in a hostile environment.

This is already a low combo line for Jrue Holiday, especially considering his playing time and usage is set to increase after Jayson Tatum suffered a serious injury. I expect Holiday to play upwards of 40+ minutes if he is able to stay out of foul trouble. Jrue is also a capable rebounder and he will need to provide Boston with a well rounded game if the C’s hope to force a Game 7.

We just successfully faded MPJ but I believe the oddsmakers over adjusted his lines, especially considering this game is being played in Denver where he’s been far more productive in the playoffs. The Nuggets are in desperate need of another scoring option. I’m willing to roll the dice here and bank on a bounce back for the talented forward.

Al Horford has had a great career however at 38 years old, this is a hefty combo line for the big man. Horford has failed to eclipse this line in 8/9 playoff appearances this year. Even without Jayson Tatum, I don’t expect Horfords usage to increase significantly. Kristaps Porzingis said he felt good for the first time in these playoffs and I anticipate him, along with Derrick White, Jrue Holiday and of course Jaylen Brown to be the primary beneficiaries with Tatum missing.

This is a low combo line for Russell Westbrook who has been more good than bad throughout the Nuggets postseason run. Denver is having to rely on Westbrook as they play a very thin 6-7 man rotation, not to mention Michael Porter Jr. really struggling, particularly on the road. Russ is coming off two poor performances and I think he has a good shot to bounce back and see a few extra minutes in the event MPJ continues to struggle.

Michael Porter Jr. has struggled in the postseason seeing his scoring average dip to just 10 PPG on 40% shooting. MPJ has been just dreadful on the road as well having failed to eclipse this line 4/5 road games, while averaging just 7.8 PPG and shooting 13-43 from the field. He’s also playing significantly fewer minutes and considering both the blowout potential coupled with the strength of OKC’s defense, it’s hard to see Porter turning things around in Game 5. I would play this for a full unit at 11.5.

Payton Pritchard came up big for the Celtics in their game 3 victory. The reigning 6th man of the year award winner chipped in five three pointers on his way to scoring 23 points while logging a playoff high 35 minutes. Kristaps Porzingis is clearly operating at less than 100% and the Celtics have adjusted by playing Pritchard extra minutes which I suspect will be the case tonight as well.

I like this spot for Tyrese Haliburton to bounce back at home after a subpar Game 3 performance. Haliburton has performed better at home this season versus on the road and has fairly drastic home/road splits. We’re also working with a high total in a game that should be competitive. Look for Haliburton to more aggressive against a desperate Cleveland team.

Buddy Hield has struggled from a consistency standpoint throughout his career, particularly in high leverage/clutch situations. This game has a minuscule total, is going to be paced down, and Minnesota possesses an elite defense. It wouldn’t shock me in Gary Payton Jr absorbed some of his minutes if Hield is struggling shooting.

If you’ve been following me or my picks you’d know how highly I think of Aaron Gordon and his ability to make an impact on both ends of the court. Gordon has been incredible in the playoffs and has really elevated his play. With that said, this is a high scoring line for him, in what is certainly a very difficult matchup against the best defensive team in the NBA. Anytime the Thunder play there is blowout potential as well as we witnessed in Game 2 of this series.

Andrew Nembhard has been sensational throughout the playoffs and is a big reason why the Pacers find themselves up 2-0 on the Cleveland Cavaliers. Whether it’s been his shooting, playmaking, defense, he’s been contributing in a myriad of ways. With that being said, this is a very high line for his AR considering he’s not a high output rebounder and is a secondary ball handler. Nembhard has averaged under 9 combined RA in the regular season and postseason. My projections have a nice edge here.