I like the pitching matchup with Wheeler on the mound against Rasmussen. Rasmussen starting to regresss a bit and I'm expecting a good day from Wheeler against this Rays lineup. The Phillies have also been putting up runs and putting runners on base, and in what is likely a great hitting environment, I expect them to put up enough runs to win the First Five.

Brayan Bello makes his first start of the season coming off the IL and I'm going to look to take advantage of that with a Mariners team that has hot bats and has been particularly hot against righties. The Mariners will trot out Bryce Miller who has recovered nicely from a tough start to the season. Miller may have some issues with the lefties in the Red Sox lineup in particular, but I think he'll be more impressive than Bello (who wasn't exactly great in his rehab apperances). With the situation in mind, I think the wrong team is favored.

The Rangers' bats have started out cold and the Cubs have been stacking runs (due, in part, to a 3 game series in Sacramento against the A's), but this is a play on the pitchers as Justin Steele has had a poor start to his season and Nathan Eovaldi has been excellent through his two starts. The weather will cater to poor hitting conditions on Monday night in Chicago. I like this pitching matchup and think if anyone scores early, it's the Rangers.

Angels are coming in winning 2 out of 3, but it wasn't exactly impressive against the White Sox, as the runs were hard to come by. Contrast that with the Cardinals who swept the Twins and put up 19 runs across the three game series. But, hold everything, as Miles Mikolas is on the mound and he'll be a big fade target of mine. Doesn't really matter which metric you look at, it's not going to look pretty for Mikolas. Tyler Anderson, on the other hand, was solid last season and is the far better pitcher. I'll take the +0.5 at a very reasonable price, but I like the F5 ML as well.

BYU has been my adopted team this year and now that the line has moved from +3.5 to +5.5, it's time to jump right back in. BYU continues to be disrespected in the market in spite of losing just once over their last 12 games. In that time they've taken out Kansas, Iowa State, Arizona, VCU and Wisconsin. Many of their big wins have also been away from home. Both offenses should flourish and while Alabama may be the better team, this is too many points for a team that has a chance to win this game outright.

I don't make a ton of college basketball bets, but when I do, they're usually on BYU. I've been tracking this team all year and I think they can make a deep run. Wisconsin has some impressive wins on their resume, but I'm more impressed with what BYU's wins against very good teams down the stretch. This BYU offense simply doesn't go away and the Badgers don't have the defensive profile to stop it.

The VCU Rams are a trendy Bracket Buster this week, but they're up against an underrated BYU team that has played well all season in the Big 12. VCU is very balanced and have some impressive metrics, but some of that is a product of playing in the A-10. The Rams have the big travel spot and will be in altitude in a likely shootout and that also benefits BYU. I would play this ML up to -135 and I really don't mind laying the 2.5 either.

BYU is one of the hottest teams in the country and have had some extra time to prepare for Iowa State. The Cyclones are a contender when healthy, but I'm willing to gamble that Tamin Lipsey and Keshon Gilbert are not 100% today (Gilbert may not suit up but Lipsey is expected to play). BYU can be relentless on offense, but will need to clean up the turnovers. I expect it to be close down the stretch with BYU having a chance to win this one.

Syracuse has been fairly competitive down the stretch of the season, but they'll be up against a better Seminole team which dispatched Syracuse comfortably earlier in the season. The Seminoles should be able to get plenty of good looks and second-chance opportunities against a porous Syracuse defense, particularly because Malique Ewin is back in the lineup after missing a couple weeks. The Seminoles just beat SMU, and if they beat Syracuse, they get SMU again in the 2nd round. I think they believe they can make some noise in the ACC Tournament and it starts tonight.

These two teams are heading in opposite directions and I think that will continue for at least for one more game. Kansas has lost 2 of 3 since their home win against Iowa State and BYU is surging with back to back wins against West Virginia and Kansas State. BYU now finds itself on the right side of the bubble and this will be a critical win for their resume. The Jayhawk defense will limit BYU, but they haven't been great on the road and I think we see a big win from the home team in Provo.

The Baylor Bears are great at home, but I think the wrong team is favored. I expect Arizona's three point shooting woes to regress to the mean, but more importantly, I expect Arizona to get some easy baskets, especially with Baylor continuing to pile up injuries. Add to that Arizona has done a good job covering spreads lately and you've got a nice spot to take a solid road dog. The Wildcats have lost two tough games in a row and I don't expect the slide to continue.

You're going to hear that this is a classic "let down" spot for Clemson after their big win against Duke, but UNC is simply not a good basketball team and their cover rate has been abysmal. UNC escaped with a narrow win against Pittsburgh on Saturday, but they have struggled all season, particularly on the road. Clemson's defense should get after UNC and turn them over and UNC will need to shoot well to keep up. Clemson pulls away at home.

The Eagles and Chiefs tend to play conservatively and can eat up clock through long clock-running drives. The Eagles do that via Saquon and the Chiefs via the short area passing game. Add in that both defenses are very solid and you can see this first half being played conservatively and between the 20 yard lines. I see plenty of first half drives stalling and/or ending in field goals, and perhaps, the second half is when one of these teams (in a trailing position) tries to open things up.

James Cook has cruised past this number in 4 of his last 6 games. More importantly, the Chiefs have shown themselves to be vulnerable against the run down the stretch of the season, and that includes last week against Joe Mixon and the Texans. Cook is projected to get 14 carries and he only requires 4 YPC to attain this number on that volume. I suspect he'll do much better than that. Expect a heavy dose of Josh Allen and James Cook and look for them both to have success.

I think the Bills are way more live to win this game than most, but I want to target the first half as I worry about Derrick Henry running downhill against an undersized defense in the second half. The Bills defensive splits at home are much better and they've got a relatively healthy defense going into this game versus the Week 4 matchup. I also like this Bills offense at home (and in general) and there's a possiblity this Ravens newfound defensive prowess has been a result of some layup matchups over the last two months. Give me the Bills 1st half behind their home field crowd.