BYU is one of the hottest teams in the country and have had some extra time to prepare for Iowa State. The Cyclones are a contender when healthy, but I'm willing to gamble that Tamin Lipsey and Keshon Gilbert are not 100% today (Gilbert may not suit up but Lipsey is expected to play). BYU can be relentless on offense, but will need to clean up the turnovers. I expect it to be close down the stretch with BYU having a chance to win this one.

Syracuse has been fairly competitive down the stretch of the season, but they'll be up against a better Seminole team which dispatched Syracuse comfortably earlier in the season. The Seminoles should be able to get plenty of good looks and second-chance opportunities against a porous Syracuse defense, particularly because Malique Ewin is back in the lineup after missing a couple weeks. The Seminoles just beat SMU, and if they beat Syracuse, they get SMU again in the 2nd round. I think they believe they can make some noise in the ACC Tournament and it starts tonight.

These two teams are heading in opposite directions and I think that will continue for at least for one more game. Kansas has lost 2 of 3 since their home win against Iowa State and BYU is surging with back to back wins against West Virginia and Kansas State. BYU now finds itself on the right side of the bubble and this will be a critical win for their resume. The Jayhawk defense will limit BYU, but they haven't been great on the road and I think we see a big win from the home team in Provo.

The Baylor Bears are great at home, but I think the wrong team is favored. I expect Arizona's three point shooting woes to regress to the mean, but more importantly, I expect Arizona to get some easy baskets, especially with Baylor continuing to pile up injuries. Add to that Arizona has done a good job covering spreads lately and you've got a nice spot to take a solid road dog. The Wildcats have lost two tough games in a row and I don't expect the slide to continue.

You're going to hear that this is a classic "let down" spot for Clemson after their big win against Duke, but UNC is simply not a good basketball team and their cover rate has been abysmal. UNC escaped with a narrow win against Pittsburgh on Saturday, but they have struggled all season, particularly on the road. Clemson's defense should get after UNC and turn them over and UNC will need to shoot well to keep up. Clemson pulls away at home.

The Eagles and Chiefs tend to play conservatively and can eat up clock through long clock-running drives. The Eagles do that via Saquon and the Chiefs via the short area passing game. Add in that both defenses are very solid and you can see this first half being played conservatively and between the 20 yard lines. I see plenty of first half drives stalling and/or ending in field goals, and perhaps, the second half is when one of these teams (in a trailing position) tries to open things up.

James Cook has cruised past this number in 4 of his last 6 games. More importantly, the Chiefs have shown themselves to be vulnerable against the run down the stretch of the season, and that includes last week against Joe Mixon and the Texans. Cook is projected to get 14 carries and he only requires 4 YPC to attain this number on that volume. I suspect he'll do much better than that. Expect a heavy dose of Josh Allen and James Cook and look for them both to have success.

I think the Bills are way more live to win this game than most, but I want to target the first half as I worry about Derrick Henry running downhill against an undersized defense in the second half. The Bills defensive splits at home are much better and they've got a relatively healthy defense going into this game versus the Week 4 matchup. I also like this Bills offense at home (and in general) and there's a possiblity this Ravens newfound defensive prowess has been a result of some layup matchups over the last two months. Give me the Bills 1st half behind their home field crowd.

I believe this number opened at 28.5 and most sportsbooks took some action and it's now 33.5 at most places. BetMGM still has the 29.5 and I'm happy to take it there (I'm ok with the 33.5. It's not my favorite ladder, but that is in play as well). Dyami is averaging 4+ targets over his last 5 games and he's been very efficient with them. He's also a big play threat and could potentially get this on one catch. JD is slated to throw for 230+ in what's likely to be a negative game script and it's not all going to Terry McLaurin. I expect Dyami and Olamide to get their fair share.

This is not an offense that wants to put it in CJ Stroud's hands for an entire game, but they may have no choice. Against good rush defenses, Joe Mixon has been largely ineffective and this Chiefs rush defense is quite good. With Mixon being held in check it will all rest on Stroud and a host of backup WRs (outside of Nico Collins). This will result in more passing volume than normal. Passing efficiency is a different question which is why I'm going with "Attempts" over "Completions." You can catch this number at FanDuel, but I'd be willing to play it at 34.5 if that's where your book has it.

This is a big number, but I think we are about to see the best version of the Chiefs. Key players have been resting for 2-3 weeks and additional key players are back on both sides of the ball. I don't see how the Texans score, particularly with Jaylen Watson back and what will amount to a non-existent Texan running game. I like the Texans Team Total Under as well, but I'm going to lay the points as I think the Chiefs put up enough offense to cover this line.

I don't mind laying the points, but FanDuel is providing a reasonable ML price and I'm going to go with it as I think this game may be quite close. Both of these teams have shown blemishes down the stretch of the season, but I give the Vikings the slight edge from a body of work and talent standpoint. Vikings lost the first matchup, but that was a travel spot on 4 days rest and now they get a neutral site with Blake Cashman and TJ Hockenson in the lineup (they didn't play in the first matchup). I think this Rams offense continues to sputter and we see Darnold and the Vikings offense regress to the mean from last week's performance against the Lions.

OIamide Zaccheaus has now established himself as the WR2 for Washington and that has resulted in hitting this total in three straight games. In what will likely be a neutral or negative game script, with Jayden Daniels projected for 230 passing yards, some of that production will go to Zaccheaus. Add that he also lines up in the slot a good amount which is a weak spot for the Bucs secondary. This number is at BetMGM. Other books have 37.5 and I'm fine with that number.

I was a fade on the Texans going into the year and I'm going to be a fade on the Texans to close the year. It's a nice matchup for the Chargers as they shouldn't need to do much on offense to get this cover. With that said, Justin Herbert has excelled lately and he is equipped with a good offensive line, a healthy starting RB and at least one very talented receiver. The Texans offense has sputtered, thanks in part to a sophomore slump and some injuries and I don't expect them to move the ball against this solid Chargers defense.

This is a pretty big line for a WR2, but it's definitely warranted as we are looking at a shooutout in Detroit on Sunday night. Addison has been averaging 6+ targets over his last 6 games and he goes up against a Lions secondary that continues to get gashed (thanks in large part to injuries). Sam Darnold is slated to pass for 280 yards and a big chunk of that should go to a chunk play specialist in Jordan Addison. Only half of the major books have player props out for this game and the other half likely release them later this afternoon, so keep an eye out if your book has yet to release them.