Which Washington receivers will step up against Tampa?...

I was a fade on the Texans going into the year and I'm going to be a fade on the Texans to close the year. It's a nice matchup for the Chargers as they shouldn't need to do much on offense to get this cover. With that said, Justin Herbert has excelled lately and he is equipped with a good offensive line, a healthy starting RB and at least one very talented receiver. The Texans offense has sputtered, thanks in part to a sophomore slump and some injuries and I don't expect them to move the ball against this solid Chargers defense.

This is a pretty big line for a WR2, but it's definitely warranted as we are looking at a shooutout in Detroit on Sunday night. Addison has been averaging 6+ targets over his last 6 games and he goes up against a Lions secondary that continues to get gashed (thanks in large part to injuries). Sam Darnold is slated to pass for 280 yards and a big chunk of that should go to a chunk play specialist in Jordan Addison. Only half of the major books have player props out for this game and the other half likely release them later this afternoon, so keep an eye out if your book has yet to release them.

This line has crept up a couple of yards, but I still think it's very bettable at this 35.5 number (BetMGM). There are three RBs that get touches on this team, but in a must win, you need to go to your best one and that is clearly Jaleel McLaughlin. The carries and efficiency have been there recently and he's projected to see 8-9 carries. Add the fact that the Chiefs are resting over half of their defensive starters, including Chris Jones, and it could be a great mix for Jaleel to establish himself as the clear RB1 heading to the playoffs.

You may think I'm chasing last week's performance against the Bengals, but the truth is, Marvin Mims has smashed this number in 5 of his last 6 games. Bo Nix likes to spread it around to all of his pass catchers, but Mims has clearly carved out enough of a role to get 4+ targets per game and it's been 8 and 5 targets over his last two games. He's getting the work, he's been efficient and he gets downfield and that is a great setup for an over at such a low number. This game is tricky with Denver being such huge favorites, but I think Bo Nix continues to look in Marvin Mims direction.

San Francisco is in unfamiliar territory with the final two games of their season rendered meaningless. They'll certainly roll out most of their starters and play to win, but I also think they'll give their young talent some extra looks. Said young talent includes rookie Ricky Pearsall. Pearsall had an ugly sequence last week with two illegal formation penalties, but he's also had 4 targets in each of his last two games (for 16 and 37 yards). I expect at least 4 targets in a likely trailing game script and against a very banged up Lions defense. A ladder is in play for the 1st Round pick with 4.41 speed.

Sam Darnold is projected to have 260+ passing yards and 21 completions and I think at least 2 of those completions will result in a touchdown. The Packers rush defense has been particularly stout lately and I think most of the Vikings success will be through the air. In what's projected to be a high scoring affair in perfect conditions, I'll take the guy who has hit this prop in 3 of his last 4 games.

This one will feel like a playoff game for both teams and I think both offenses will have success. While teams can definitely run on the Bengals, the stable of RBs for Denver is far from elite and I expect Denver to be playing from a negative game script for a good portion of this game. More compelling is the fact that Bo Nix has been throwing the ball near the line of scrimmage at a high rate and that should equate to plenty of efficiency, particularly against a soft Bengals defense.

We recently cashed fading the Bears in the first half and we're going right back to it. The Bears are a mess and Caleb and Company only seem to get it going when they're down multiple touchdowns. Seattle is coming off two losses to two of the best teams in football and are in must win mode as they still have a chance to sneak into the playoffs. Look for them to come out angry and put the pedal down quickly on a team that continues to slide.

Jordan Love hasn't hit this number in any of his last 5 games and I see no reason why this game will be any different. The game script calls for the Packers playing with a big lead which should mean leaning on the running game and taking the air out of the ball for a good portion of this game.

You may recall that I was on the Jets TT over last week, which came in nicely thanks to a rally in the 4th quarter. While the Rodgers/Davante connection has been clicking, a lot of that was the Jags pass defense simply being bad. I expect the Jets offense to sputter throughout this game, but more importantly, I expect the Jets defense to continue to get exposed by Sean McVay's Rams. The Jets defense hasn't been good for quite some time and the injuries continue to mount. Not a good setup against a hungry Rams team.

There's not a lot of positives to take from D'Andre Swift's stats this season, but he's still getting the carries as the clear number one back in Chicago. Now he faces a Detroit defense that continues to pile up the injuries, including on the Defensive Line with Alim McNeil. If you follow my picks, you know I'm also on Caleb Williams passing yards over. I think they can both get there, but they'll need to establish some semblance of a run game and that's where Swift comes in. Swift is projected to get 12-14 carries in this game which should be enough to hit this over. Play it up to 57.5.

This line ranges right now between 207.5 through 214.5 and it looks like the best of the number is at BetMGM. Going back to last year, I've been a pretty big Caleb Williams detractor, but this is a good setup for him against an increasingly injured Lions defense. With Alim McNeil out, I suspect the pass rush will be limited and that should give Caleb more time against a Carlton Davis-less secondary. Add a likely negative game script and the path is paved for Caleb to throw it around a bit and sail past this number. It'll be cold in Chicago, but otherwise the conditions should be fine and the game total continues to be high at 48.

Gus Edwards has been extremely inefficient since joining the Chargers and has only hit this number in 1 of his last 5 games (note that JK Dobbins was injured in Week 12). Edwards is projected to get 10 carries against Denver's stout rush defense and I don't think he breaks one of those carries for more than 10 yards. I'll note that this 10.5 number is very low for a starting running back, but most starting running backs are more efficient than Edwards and starters are typically projected to get more than 10 carries. I also think we will see more Kimani Vidal touches moving forward as his snap share is rising.

We witnessed a slow start from the Broncos last week and that's in large part due to some recent regression from Bo Nix. I expect the Broncos to come out conservatively on Thursday night and focus on their non-existent run game and then open it up later in the game to try and expose the Chargers banged up secondary. I think this leads to little offense early. With no Riley Moss for Denver I think we'll see the Chargers, at home, move the ball and score first in this one. There's volatility in a first quarter bet, but this is more of a fade of the Broncos early (similar to what we witnessed with the Broncos last week).