Eric's Picks (3 Live)
Eric's Past Picks
In eight games this season that he's received 20+ carries, Derrick Henry has topped the 100-yard mark in all of them. With Pittsburgh scuffling, look for Baltimore to take an early lead on Saturday night and ride their star running back to the finish with 20+ carries and 100+ rushing yards.
Another correlated play with Derrick Henry's rushing yards. Baltimore is undefeated this season (7-0) when giving him 21+ carries, in which he's topped 100 yards rushing each time. I'm projecting Baltimore to be protecting a healthy lead throughout and therefore giving their star runner closer to 30 than 20 carries.
I believe this is the real National Championship Game as either of these teams should be favored over Penn State or Notre Dame on January 20th. I lean Texas, in part due to the de facto home field advantage in Dallas as well as the fact that the Texas athletes are arguably better than what Ohio State has seen all season. No offense to Oregon, Penn State, Indiana, and Michigan who the Buckeyes have played but this is another level of collective talent. I would be very surprised if this game was decided by more than one score. Ohio State 24, Texas 20.
With two elite defenses, I think this total is much too high. In my opinion, the oddsmakers are overreacting to the Buckeyes' offensive explosion against Tennessee and Oregon, while at the same time penalizing Texas for its fourth quarter meltdown against Arizona State. Ohio State has allowed 12.1 points per game this season, best in the country, while Texas has given up 14.5 PPG (fourth). There will be a few big plays, but not nearly as many as we saw in the two teams' quarterfinal games.
Both of these semifinal games should be within one score but in the Orange Bowl, I lean towards the Fighting Irish. Penn State wasn't as visually impressive in person to me in the Fiesta Bowl. Boise State moved the ball plenty but kept shooting themselves in the foot. Meanwhile, Notre Dame leads the nation in takeaways (31) and should be able to keep Tyler Warren and Penn State's running backs relatively in check.
Unless the Fighting Irish turn the ball over deep in their own territory, I'm not sure I see the Nittany Lions sustaining more than two long drives, if that. Notre Dame has the fifth best pass defense in the country (167.4 yards per game) and should keep Drew Allar's success to a minimum. Not only do I like Marcus Freeman's team to win, I expect this one is going to be ugly. Take the under. Notre Dame 19, Penn State 14.
In their last three games, Detroit has given up 430, 368, and 389 total yards to opposing starting quarterbacks. Darnold combined for 298 yards vs. the Lions in Week 7 and I expect this game to be even more of a wild shootout than the 31-29 final back then. I believe this will be a back and forth game and Minnesota's quarterback will end up with closer to 350 than 250 total yards.
Opposing kickers have made two or more successful field goals in eight of the Bears' last ten games, so I like Brandon McManus' chances this weekend. Though McManus has only made 17 field goals in ten games with Green Bay, he should have plenty of chances for success as the Packers look to continue their domination over their bitter rivals. And we're getting plus-money on this prop!
Bijan Robinson has more than 90 yards rushing in five straight games and has done that in 9 of 16 games. Now he faces one of the worst run defenses the NFL has seen in years. With the Falcons still alive for a division title (albeit needing an unlikely Tampa Bay loss), look for Robinson to see around 20 carries, which should be plenty to push him over 100 yards on the ground.
Pittsburgh needs this one badly on Saturday night to likely avoid a trip to Baltimore in the AFC playoffs next weekend. Pat Freiermuth caught six passes for 68 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals in Week 13 and I expect him to be a focal point of the Steelers' offense once again in Week 18. The Bengals have allowed 13 tight ends to catch more than 35 yards of passes this season.
Duke lost both their top two quarterbacks to the transfer portal and now has to rely on a third-stringer, Henry Belin IV, who threw all of one pass this year. Ole Miss has an elite defense that surrendered less than 14 points per contest and hit the under line in 10 of 12 games this season. I have a hard time seeing Duke score more than twice, assuming Ole Miss plays with a chip on their shoulder for being left out of the College Football Playoff (which I think they will). On offense, the Rebels should find some success with veteran quarterback Jaxson Dart. The Rebels should romp with relative ease. Ole Miss 28, Duke 10
In a way, I'm surprised this game is being played only a day after such a senseless tragedy in New Orleans. Hopefully the teams can focus after the worst of distractions on Wednesday. Thus far, I'm 7-0 on straight up picks in this year's College Football Playoff though my against the spread / total picks leave a bit to be desired. I like Notre Dame here as I simply don't trust Georgia with a backup quarterback. The Fighting Irish have been a consistent top-3 team since Week 3 of the CFB season and I think they keep it rolling on Thursday. Notre Dame 24, Georgia 21.