Thomas's Past Picks
Texas returns home after a six game road trip where the Rangers are 6-1 this season. Meanwhile, the Angels are playing their seventh straight road game and have to face the Tyler Mahle, who sports an impressive 1.32 ERA over 13.2 innings of work this season. Yusei Kikuchi has yet to pitch more than 6.0 innings this season and the Rangers should be able to exploit an Angels bullpen that has the worst ERA in the American League (6.29).
Getting through 6.0 innings at Steinbrenner Field is no easy task with the way the ball travels there. Ryan Pepiot has gone under this total in two of three. The one over was by half an out when he pitched 6.0 innings against the awful Rockies. He's allowed 17 hits and seven runs over 16 innings this season. I don't see Pepiot making it through 6.0 innings tonight in what could be a high-scoring game.
This total feels low for Justin Verlander against the Phillies' lineup. The veteran has gone over this number in all three starts against the light hitting Reds and Mariners. Philadelphia's batting average goes up 37 points at home and I think they get to five hits Tuesday vs. Verlander.
The Yankees' bats were MIA on Friday night. I expect them to get back to normal Saturday against Jordan Hicks. Even if Hicks pitches well, he rarely goes more than 6.0 innings, so look for the Giants to use multiple arms in this game. Judge has recorded a hit in seven of his last nine games. He's also hit two homers in six at-bats against Hicks. I'm splitting this up with a half unit on a hit and a half unit on a home run for Judge.
Aaron Judge has faced Jordan Hicks just six times but he's homered twice off him. I'm going to take a shot he continues to have success on Saturday. I put a half unit on Judge to get a hit and a half unit on a homer. Hopefully we kill two birds with one stone. Judge hasn't homered since April 4. To quote legendary manager Lou Brown in Major League, "I got a hunch he's due."
This total feels a little low for Robbie Ray on Friday. Ray has given up four and three hits in his first two starts. However, the Yankees are batting .284 versus left-handed pitching this season. New York has 55 hits and scored 40 runs against lefties, compared to 57 hits and 42 runs vs. right handers. Those numbers are almost identical, despite the Yankees recording 32 fewer at bats against left handers. NY's batting average is also 25 points higher at home than on the road. I like this matchup for the Yankees to put up at least four hits.
All the attention will be on Luka Doncic tonight but don't forget about Austin Reaves. Reaves has gone over 24.5 points+assists in 13 of his last 16 games. The addition of Luka hasn't hurt Reaves, who is averaging 21.3 points and 4.8 assists since the Lakers stole Doncic from Dallas. In a game that should be played at a faster pace, I like Reaves' recent trend of hitting the over on this total to continue.
Landon Knack vs. Jake Irvin. I'm jumping on this game early because I make it closer to -190 and expect the odds to go up. The Dodgers have had success against Irvin, sporting an average of .333 and OPS of .886 in 59 career at-bats. Knack should have a strong outing against a Nats lineup that struck out 97 times heading into Tuesday. If the game goes to the bullpens, LA has a big edge. Washington has the second-highest bullpen ERA in the NL. I'll back the Dodgers here coming off three straight losses for a half unit.
Ivica Zubac has scored at least 17 points in 15 of his last 20 games. I like that trend to continue tonight against a Spurs team that allows the second-most points to centers in the NBA. The last time Zubac faced SA he went for 21 points and 22 rebounds. This is a big game for the Clippers. It sounds like Kawhi Leonard will play but he is dealing with a right knee injury. Look for Zubac to pick up the scoring slack in a must-win game for playoff seeding.
Justin Wrobleski vs. Brad Lord. This is an interesting matchup between two spot starters. However, I give the Dodgers a big edge even with the unproven Wrobleski on the mound. The young lefty did start six games last season and looked good in spring training. The key for me is Washington has been awful against left-handed pitching early in the year. They're hitting just .210 with 43 strikeouts in 105 at-bats. Lord hasn't pitched over one inning yet this season and now faces a Dodgers lineup that is coming off two straight losses. I expect LA to get to Lord early and make the Nats turn to their suspect bullpen with an ERA of 6.42. I'll lay it with the Dodgers for a half unit.
Connor Gillispie vs. Clay Holmes. This is a pure weather play for a half unit. I live three hours from NYC and it's so windy I can't open the door. It looks like there is similar weather conditions in NYC with winds around 30 mph. These two pitchers just faced off on on April 2. Gillispie allowed one run over 5.0 innings, while Holmes gave up two in 4.2 innings of work. BetRivers still had a 4.5. Good at 4 or 4.5.
Zach Eflin vs. Zac Gallen. Good pitching matchup here between the two Zach/Zac's. Eflin has gone 6.0 innings in each of his two starts and has had success vs. the current Diamondbacks' lineup in a limited sample size, holding them to a .176 average in 51 career at-bats. Gallen pitched 6.2 innings in his last outing and threw 101 pitches. I think we see both pitchers go past 5.0 innings with each holding the opposing lineup in check.
Half Unit. Let's make the last pick of the season interesting by taking an over with Houston. I rate Duke's defense 10 spots higher than Florida. The Gators are good defensively, although their pace allows for some easy baskets. Florida has given up over 70 points in 11 of its last 12 games. The one time they didn't, Norfolk State scored 69. No one will mistake the Cougars for Alabama but they do look to shoot threes in transition when the opportunity is there. Houston topped this number in games against Alabama, Arizona, BYU (twice) and Gonzaga - teams that like to speed up the tempo. I'll take a shot they get to 71 here. Thank you for following my CBB plays this season!
Walker is getting more playing time with Tyrese Maxey and Justin Edwards both out for the Sixers. He has topped 30 minutes in three of his last four games. Walker has at least four assists in four straight games. He has gone over this total in six straight when he plays at least 28 minutes. Given the current state of the Sixers, I expect Walker to play 28+ minutes again tonight.
Bryan Woo vs. Jordan Hicks. I played the F5 under in Hicks' first start and he rewarded me with 6.0 scoreless innings. In my analysis for that game, I mentioned that Hicks started out strong last season but wore down over the second half because he was a former relief pitcher not used to throwing that many innings. Woo was also sharp in his first start, allowing just one run over 6.0 innings. I think the total should be 3.5 in what I expect to be a potential pitcher's duel between Hicks and Woo.