Iowa is allowing 91.5 PPG away from home...

The Rams were one of the worst teams in the NFL at defending tight ends during the regular season, allowing an average of 6.2 receptions and 64.8 yards per game to the position. Eleven tight ends topped 40 yards against the Rams this year. Hockenson had a nightmare game versus Detroit but had gone over this number in three of four before that bad outing by the Vikings' offense. I expect Minnesota's offense to bounce back overall this week. Look for Hockenson to have a big role in a plus matchup.

I'm taking a shot with Kentucky here with the line at +6. The Wildcats struggle defensively but are elite on the offensive end of the court and they don’t turn the ball over, which is important against Mississippi State’s defense. The Wildcats also have the recipe to exploit the Bulldogs’ biggest defensive liability: Guarding the three-point line. Mississippi State enters Saturday’s game ranked 159th in three-point percentage defense. Kentucky doesn’t live and die by the three but does rank 104th in three-point attempts per game. Kentucky's defense is bad and there is a lot of love for Mississippi State today. I just think the line is too high.

I'm going against the line movement in this game and taking the Cardinals ML for a half unit. Lamar presses at one of the highest rates in CBB, while Austin ranks dead last in the country in turnover percentage and 355th in steal percentage. The Cardinals also rank 22nd in converting steals into points. I don't play many moneylines but once this went below -170, there is simply too much value for me to pass up. I make Lamar -270. I also don't hate the Cardinals -3.5 if you prefer to take the spread instead.

What is Penn State's best win this year? Minnesota? SMU? Boise State? The Nittany Lions took advantage of a favorable draw but I think their run ends on Thursday, especially if star defensive end Abdul Carter can't play. I’m still not buying Drew Allar and Penn State’s passing game against a good defense that can pressure the quarterback. I like the matchup for Notre Dame. I'll take the Irish to grind out a win.

I like this spot for Arkansas after getting blasted at Tennessee. Think the Hogs can get out in transition on Ole Miss. I worry a bit about Arkansas turning the ball over but once the line went to 2.5 at FanDuel, I hit it. I like the Hogs if you can get -3 or less. If you get -3.5 or -4, make it a half unit play. Anything over -4 is a pass.

I love this spot for UCLA. Michigan is traveling to the West Coast for the second time in four days after defeating USC over the weekend. UCLA returns home following a loss to Nebraska and I like the matchup. Michigan can be sloppy with the basketball and the Bruins rank No. 1 in turnover percentage. Michigan has scored over 80 points in six straight games but they haven't seen anything like UCLA's vice grip defense. Eric Dailey Jr. missed the loss to Nebraska but it sounds like it was a one-game absence. The Bruins don't shoot free throws well so hard cutoff at -3. Try to get -2 or less.

I think this line is a little off. I make Kentucky -1 here. I see some value taking Georgia over a possession at home. Georgia's biggest issue is turning the ball over but Kentucky can't really take advantage. The Wildcats rank 319th in turnover percentage. Kentucky has also played just one true road game and lost to Clemson. Not sure if Kentucky's defense is good enough to lay points on the road. I like Georgia at +3 or more.

I missed the opener of Florida -1.5 so I'm going to grab the moneyline instead. I like this spot for the Gators. We went against them on Saturday and I'm trying for a little Florida Double Bubble here. The Gators are one of the few teams that can compete with Tennessee on the boards. If Florida limits second-chance opportunities, I think they win. You might get a better number than me if you wait and we see Tennessee money come in. It won't surprise me but I'm comfortable taking the -134 in case the line goes past -3. I would take the Florida ML or the spread if it drops to -2.

The Vikings' defense allows the second-most yards to receivers. St. Brown went for 112 in the first meeting and has topped 100 yards in three straight games versus Minnesota. In a big game I expect St. Brown to see double-digit targets. High number but I think he goes over 82.5.

Elon is one of the surprise teams in the CAA so far the season entering Saturday 10-4. The Phoenix have been particularly strong at home where they are 5-0. Elon has won those by an average of 26 points. Both of these teams get to the free throw line a lot. The difference is Elon ranks fifth in defensive free throw rate, while Hampton ranks 354th. The Phoenix should live at the foul line in this game. If Hampton isn’t drawing fouls, it will have a difficult time scoring. The Pirates don’t shoot the ball well, ranking 343rd in effective field goal percentage. Elon also has a big edge on the offensive glass. I like Elon at -9 or less.

I really like this spot for Kentucky. Florida is playing just its second true road game of the season on Saturday after facing a pretty soft schedule so far. Kentucky is one of the few teams in the country that can compete with Florida on the boards. The Gators rank second in offensive rebounding percentage and typically have a big edge over their opponents. That won’t be the case on Saturday. Kentucky is a strong defensive rebounding team and ranks 23rd in second-chance conversion percentage defense. If the Wildcats can compete on the glass and limit Florida’s second-chance opportunities, I think they win. I bet the ML -125. If that goes up too high, I'd take the Cats at -3 or less.

I'm a little surprised EKU opened up only a 3.5-point favorite in this matchup. I project them closer to -6. The Colonels have a big edge offensively and should dominate the boards. EKU also ranks 19th in potential quick points off breakaway steals, while Central Arkansas' defense ranks 248th in that category. I expect this line to go up overnight. Back EKU -5 or less.

I think this is a good spot to back Kansas City. The Roos have won four straight after a slow start to the season. Two of those wins came over quality opponents Wichita State and East Tennessee State. South Dakota is 1-6 on the road. In the six losses, the Coyotes allowed over 90 points each time. Tough to win away from home when you are allowing an average of 92 points. I like Kansas City at -4 or less.

The first meeting between Oregon and Ohio State produced 63 points and came down to the final play. I expect another high scoring game in the rematch. The stats from the first meeting show how even it was with both teams racking up over 450 total yards. Oregon averaged 7.6 yards per play, while Ohio State averaged 6.9. Ryan Day coached scared versus Michigan but attacked Tennessee’s defense vertically with his playmakers. He’ll need to be just as aggressive against Oregon because the Ducks will score points. Dillon Gabriel had a lot of success targeting the Ohio State corners in the first matchup and I don’t see that changing this time around. I'd play the over up to 57.5.