Are the Reds undervalued entering the 2025 season?...

Maryland has lost just one game this season by more than five points...

I think St. Mary's is getting too much respect. Here is the thing we need to understand: Gonzaga isn't very good. Beating the Zags twice is overrated. The Gaels' next-best win? Nebraska. St. Mary's looked awful against Vanderbilt, one of my lowest rated teams in the field. I know Bama struggled in Round 1 too but I don't think St. Mary's has enough offense to hurt them. The Gaels have a strong defense but Bama has scored 90+ points 19 times this year. The Gaels also rank 360th in bench minutes and could wear down in the second half if Alabama establishes its pace. I wanted 4.5 but will settle for 5.5.

BYU has been red-hot over the final month, going 10-1 in its last 11 games. The Cougars have scored at least 77 points in nine of their last 10 games. The only time BYU didn’t hit that number was against a Houston defense that ranks second in the country in defensive efficiency. The Cougars' offense should continue to have success on Saturday. BYU attempts the 17th most threes per game and ranks 31st in three-point percentage. Meanwhile, Wisconsin’s perimeter defense can be exploited. The Badgers ranked 12th in the Big Ten in three-point percentage defense. I think this will be a really good game but made the Cougars slight favorites. I'll grab the 1.5 and hope the threes are falling in the Round of 32.

At some point, Michigan's turnover issues will likely send them home and it could be Saturday against Texas A&M. The Wolverines rank 329th in turnover percentage and that plays into the hands of A&M's ball pressure defense. The Aggies are also one of the few teams that can negate Michigan's size on the boards. A&M is the top offensive rebounding team in the country. This is just a bad matchup for Michigan. The Big Ten team that plays a physical style like A&M is Michigan State and they beat the Wolverines by 13 and 17 this season. I do worry about free throws in a close game. The Aggies shoot just 69 percent from the line, but overall this is a good matchup for A&M.

I have been on Xavier for the last month. The Musketeers are a team I was high on coming into the season. After dealing with injuries and suffering some close losses, Xavier hit its stride late in the year. I also like the way Xavier won its First Four game over Texas. The reason First Four teams typically win a couple of games is because they get confidence from that first win. Illinois has been inconsistent all season. I think this sets up nicely for Xavier to outscore them and pull off the small upset.

I'm going to hit St. Mary's now that a 4 popped at Caesars. The Gaels have a significant edge defensively and should dominate the offensive glass. Mark Byington did a great job in his first season with Vanderbilt but the Commodores are one of my lowest rated teams in the field. Vanderbilt really struggles defensively, ranking last in the SEC in efficiency, effective FG percentage and three-point FG percentage. St. Mary's should limit Vanderbilt in transition and make them play in the halfcourt. That's advantage Gaels. Try to get -4 but 4.5 is still good for a St. Mary's team that has a lot of key edges in this game.

I'm going to take a shot with Iowa State here. I know the Cyclones will be without Keshon Gilbert but they are expected to get Tamin Lipsey back for the NCAA Tournament. Lipscomb is a good offensive team but I don't love this matchup for the Bisons. I think the Gilbert injury will impact the Cyclones at some point but not in this game. The market is a little low on ISU right now. If these teams met a month ago on a neutral court, no way is the line 13.5. I make it 16 and expect the Cyclones to be focused after going 3-4 to end the season.

I had Louisville circled entering Selection Sunday and wanted an opponent they could turn over and bother with their ball pressure defense. We got it with Creighton. The Blue jays really struggled with turnovers all season, ranking 246th in that department. This game is also being played in Lexington, Kentucky, a short drive from Louisville's campus. I expect this to be a competitive contest but I give Louisville enough edges where I'm comfortable backing the Cardinals -135 on the ML

I don't have much today, so I thought I'd make myself miserable by betting an over in a Houston game. With the way Arizona's offense played in the first two games, 134.5 is a little low. I made the total 137.5. Two factors I like here is Arizona is an excellent free throw shooting team and Houston fouls a lot. The other is being a tournament championship, the game never ends if it's within eight points in the final couple of minutes. Teams will keep fouling to extend the game and that could get us over the number. I don't bet a ton of totals, so I'm going a half unit on the over. Last play before March Madness when we get a little nuts.

Auburn is a bad matchup for Ole Miss. In two games this season, the Tigers hung 96 and 102 points on the Rebels. I expect Auburn to come out focused and refreshed after losing its last two games. I think the Tigers probably cover the 11.5 for the game but I like Auburn -6.5 in the first half even more. The Tigers led by seven and 10 at the half in the first two meetings. Given the spot and matchup, I think they once again get out fast and lead by 7+ at halftime in the SEC Tournament.

I gave this out on Discord as soon as the line was released. I tend to play more moneylines during conference tournaments. I had Arkansas yesterday and that's why because the Hogs almost blew a 20-point lead in the second half. Conference tournaments get crazy and I think the Rebels win this game. Arkansas only plays 7 guys because of injuries and if they get into foul trouble against an aggressive Ole Miss team, it will be tough to overcome. I would take the Ole Miss ML for one unit. If you can't get a good price, take the Rebels -3.5 for a half unit. Maybe the line goes against me but I don't want to wait and risk it this time of year.

This total feels low for Texas. The inconsistent Longhorns are far from an offensive machine but this is more about Vanderbilt's defense. The Commodores rank last in the SEC in defensive efficiency and have allowed more than 73 points in 12 of their last 14 games. Texas scored 78 in the first meeting and got to the foul line 27 times, despite G Tramon Mark missing the game. Vandy plays super fast, so the possessions should be there. If the Horns aren't ice cold from the field, they should score at least 74 points, win or lose.

Arkansas turned its season around after getting blown out by Missouri on Jan. 18. The Hogs went 8-5 the rest of the way with four of the losses being tight. The one bad performance though came at South Carolina where Arkansas got blown out 72-53. That was the second game with injured Adou Thiero and the Hogs looked lost. I expect a different story this time around. There is a chance Thiero could play, although I'm not banking on it. Since that loss, the Hogs scored 90 and 93 points without Thiero. South Carolina is pesky but not nearly as good away from home. I'll take Arkansas to get revenge and advance. Play Hogs ML or on the spread -3 or less.

Paladins are playing their best basketball of the season with wins over Samford (two), Wofford and Chattanooga in the last month. Furman had a much tougher road to the championship game, while Wofford caught a break getting 11 seed VMI in the semifinals. Should be a good title game but I'm riding red-hot Furman to get the NCAA Tournament bid. Bet ML up to -150 or take the spread under -3.