The Red Sox try to avoid a four-game home sweep vs. Toronto. ...

I can't believe the Lakers played Luka Doncic 31 minutes tonight in OKC ahead of his return to Dallas, and it would have been more if not for an ejection, but at least he didn't come close to hitting his point total so we cashed. Do I think Luka has a huge night in Big D? No doubt about it and maybe a triple-double. But he could go for 25/10/10, and we still win this comfortably. If he tops this, kudos. But he might be a little distracted, a blowout is possible and the Lakers have playoffs to think about in the final week of the RS, so I can't see Luka out there 40 minutes. Our model has him at 44.3 PRA.

The Flyers are long eliminated from the playoffs and might be without their top two centers in Sean Couturier (40 points) and Ryan Poehling (27 points) due to injury. If they are remotely hurt, why on earth play them now? The Rangers don't have a great shot at the last East Wild Card spot, but they have a chance and pretty much need to win out. An OT/shootout loss will not cut it here. Thus, we play this straight up instead of -1.

Tuesday felt like the first really weird day of the MLB season but it certainly will not be the last. The Angels are much better than expected but blew out the bullpen a fair amount tonight in winning in Tampa. They are also 0-2 in the two starts of lefty Yusei Kikuchi (4.50 ERA). A fair amount of Rays have seen him Ryan Pepiot (2.45 ERA) has allowed two earned in each of his two starts and allowed one run and three hits over six last year in his only career start vs. the Halos.

We saw in today's game the sometimes painful difference between playing -1 on a big favorite or that team to not bat in B9 as the Guardians beat the White Sox 1-0 on a B9 run. I usually prefer -1 for that reason as we get a push instead of an L. And we knew Cleveland had the better bullpen, so we trust extra innings if that makes sense. Same deal Wednesday really. I'll play straight up only as I don't trust the Guardians offense enough yet to win by at least two runs. And, again, the Guards have such a late-inning advantage. It's lefty Logan Allen starting on Wednesday for Cleveland, and the Pale Hose have a horrid .487 OPS vs. southpaws.

Sacramento's Sutter Health Park has been largely a launching pad so far, but really no weather factors in a rare day game there and the Padres are down three regulars in Fernando Tatis Jr. , Jake Cronenworth and Jackson Merrill. Lot of firepower missing vs. A's starter Osvaldo Bido (1-0, 2.70 ERA). Counterpart Randy Vazquez has given up two earned over 10.2 innings in 2025. Since this is pretty cheap at Under 10, I'll personally play it at 10.5 (-130) to avoid a possible push.

At this price and with how well the Tigers are playing, we have to even though I lean the Yankees winning behind Max Fried ... but certainly a one-run victory works. Counterpart Jack Flaherty (1-0, 2.38 ERA) is no slouch, either. So we are probably looking at a lower-scoring game (total is 7), which increases the chances of it being decided by one run.

Christmas has come early. Our ATM machine (redundant, I know, making a point) from last year, Martin Maldonado, is in the starting lineup tonight for the Dads. Marty is "red-hot" at .231 on the season in limited time to raise his career average to a robust .203. I have missed Marty.

A little perplexed why the Snakes are home dogs. Baltimore used its three highest-leverage relievers in Monday's win. Doesn't mean they aren't available tonight, but Arizona's bullpen certainly is in better shape. And I'd much rather have Merrill Kelly as my starting pitcher than ancient Charlie Morton (0-2, 9.72 ERA) at this point. A fair amount of Arizona batters have good splits off Morton. I believe the Snakes win but will never turn down +1.5 in that scenario.

Seattle is long eliminated from playoff contention and playing the second of a B2B after facing the Kings in LA on Monday night. That should mean we get awful backup Philipp Grubauer on Tuesday, and he's 7-17-1 with a 3.53 GAA on the year. Utah technically still has a WC shot but it would essentially have to win out and get a miracle's worth of help. Little pride at stake as well Tuesday to avoid the three-game season sweep to the Kraken -- it's their first-ever trip to Salt Lake City.

Won't Luka Doncic's focus be on Dallas tomorrow night? I certainly think so, and I expect the Thunder to rout the Lakers tonight for payback on Sunday. And thus Doncic to not play many minutes.

We actually have a game that means something Tuesday in the NBA as the Magic sit seventh in the East and the Hawks eighth. Neither can move up but both in theory could move down. If Orlando wins here, that about wraps up the seven spot and the chance to host that first play-in game -- and get a second chance should you lose. The Hawks have lost three of their past four away. They are a terrible defensive team in allowing 119.8 PPG, and Orlando is 24-7 this season when scoring at least 110 points and 8-1 when reaching 120.

Some people likely thought the Dodgers wouldn't lose three straight all season, but that's on the line tonight. Having played three straight close games, the Nats' bullpen is very taxed with All-Star closer Kyle Finnegan having pitched three in a row, so no way he's available. His two primary setup men are in doubt for the same reason. And the pen will be needed plenty today behind Brad Lord in his first career start -- as an opener. Wish -1 was an option ...

The Pirates can't score much, but the Cardinals might even be worse off in that regard right now in a matchup of aces: Sonny Gray and Paul Skenes. Gray has not looked that great yet in 2025 and pitches on the road for the first time; he had a 5.20 ERA away in 2024. Skenes has a 1.31 ERA in 20.2 career innings vs. St. Louis, although two of his three big-leagues losses are against the Cards. That likely only helps serve as motivation.

The Guardians' home opener is really all this play is Tuesday -- last team to play at home. They were the best team in the AL at home in 2024. The White Sox looked like a legit MLB team for a few days, but back to the Charlotte Knights on a four-game skid. Not a huge fan of Cleveland starter Ben Lively, but the Guards' bullpen is again terrific so I won't be sweating if this is tied in the sixth or something. I'm not a -1.5 player but would also recommend Cleveland -1 or not bat bottom 9 if your book offers.