Matt's Picks (2 Live)
Matt's Past Picks
Before Baltimore beat Pittsburgh by 17 in Week 16, there had been nine straight one-score games between these rivals, and I think we will see that again if the Steelers can "slow" the game down and keep Lamar Jackson & Co. off the field. I was pondering holding out for +10.5 but always considered that unlikely and now even the 10s might disappear with the news that Ravens Pro Bowl WR Zay Flowers likely is out. Mike Tomlin is usually money ATS as a dog.
Memphis is the No. 1 scoring team in the league but usually the home team dictates pace, and the Wolves will want to slow this to a defensive grind. They are fourth in scoring defense and play at the fifth-slowest pace in the NBA. Only one of Minnesota's past 11 games would have landed Over this number. The SL Model has 222 points being scored.
Solid number considering Columbus' road mark and that star forward Sean Monahan is still out (among a few others). I'm also moderately confident that Jackets No. 1 netminder Elvis Merzlikins will get a game off because he has played a season-high five straight. Am fine if he plays, though. I have many Elvis jokes and I went to school in Kalamazoo, which is the alleged last "live" sighting of Elvis and Tupac apparently playing Euchre together -- I am calling out anyone to include me in any Euchre events, as I so miss that and I am great at it (or was anyways). Practically paid my way through college in Euchre (and darts).
Connor McDavid vs. Connor Bedard should be fun. I'm always playing +2.5 in the NHL, even on this mismatch. If the Hawks score first, we almost surely cash and that's not a necessity to do so, either. Perhaps a bit of a flat spot anyways for Edmonton at the end of a four-game trip and a much bigger game Monday vs. rival L.A.
KenPom ranks SE Missouri at No. 263 and Morehead State at 296. Our model has the home side by 7 and ESPN BPI by 3.5. The Redhawks enter having won six of seven. They also have won six straight at home. SEMO has held its opponent under 67 points in five straight games and is second in the Ohio Valley in scoring defense. Morehead State is 10th the OVC in scoring offense and free throw percentage (hitting just 64.2%).
So guess I'm the contrarian today -- I've been called worse already this morning by the missus -- with seven experts thus far all on Chargers -2.5 (and one moneyline play). And I get that. But Los Angeles -- and some guys might not exactly have their minds right with all that's going on back home -- was 8-1 vs. teams .500 or worse this season and 2-5 against playoff teams with both wins vs. Denver. That good Houston defense, which ranks first in the NFL in opposing completion percentage (58.8) and second in picks (19), could give Justin Herbert some trouble. The SL model has Bolts by a point. Works for me.
Was hoping to be one and done today with Pittsburgh, but the Panthers were upset at home by Louisville, which may be better than I thought. The SL Model has Eastern Kentucky by nine here. Robert McCray V is the only Dolphin averaging more than 9.5 points per game and JU gives the ball away a lot with 15.5 turnovers per contest, most in the ASUN. EKU is 31st nationally in turnover margin at 3.6. And speaking of Louisville, the Colonels only lost by 2 at the Cards a few weeks ago.
This seems like a very generous price as I believe it should be around -200. Maybe I still smell the Kenny Payne stink, but I don't think Louisville is anything. Pitt just got obliterated at Duke last time out, but I think that result only helps here. The Panthers have won 15 straight at home. They have one of the ACC's top backcourts in Ishmael Leggett and Jaland Lowe, who combine to average 33.5 points, 10.5 rebounds, 8.6 assists, and 3.6 steals per game. The Panthers are 14-4 in their past 18 ACC contests.
Pretty confident this MAC matchup on CBS Sports Network will close north of -200. Our model has Toledo by 14. Not sure about that, but Massey has the Rockets 10 and ESPN BPI by 7.4. Toledo's four home games (3-1 SU & ATS) are the fewest of any MAC school to date. The Rockets are 7-0 when leading at halftime and 6-1 when shooting 45% or higher. CMU has started 0-2 in league play. The Chips allow teams to shoot right at 45% from the field.
I'm not going to play the national title game betting-wise so I can enjoy it either way -- I'm a Midwest Catholic, so I can't possibly have an unbiased opinion on Notre Dame against either one of these two hated teams and my late grandpa was an ND grad so no way -- but I think the only advantage UT has here is a semi-close location to campus. I tend to think Texas ATS covers (at least on this number) but also that OSU wins outright. But I got nothing right last night so ... see you in August for the rematch.
I'm playing this simply on principle as 117.5 is crazy low -- most Virginia games at their defensive peak weren't even this low. These are two good defensive clubs, though, as I'm sure you can infer. Definitely not a lock as a Wagner-NJIT game finished with only 93 points scored not long ago, but three straight Seahawks games against Division I competition have gone well Over this number. CCSU has scored triple digits alone a few times this year. Our model has 126 points being scored and Massey has 123.
The Canucks are like the 80s movie "Some Kind of Wonderful." Mean that in how much I forget how much like something until see it again. Vancouver hockey is that. A late-night movie always kinda check in on if awake. SKoW. Shawshank. Breakfast Club. Face/Off. When you are up at midnight and want to go to sleep and just like DANG IT now I have to stay awake. Even though we are in a digital age and can order any move anytime we want. Doesn't matter. When it pops on surprisingly, it's different. Sorry did you want hockey stats? The Nucks are healthy finally and the Canes are in the second of a B2B and starting third-string Dustin Tokarski in net.
I'm going to play a half on this total Friday for one reason only: Montreal might have found the next Patrick Roy. Rookie Jakub Dobes has been nothing short of Roy-ian in his first two starts in the Show, allowing one goal on 57 shots over two games plus an OT. And he didn't do this at home against San Jose or Chicago but at Florida and at Colorado. The 6-foot-4 Dobes is the only thing keeping me from playing Caps -1 instead. Note that the Habs are without top forward Patrik Laine again due to injury so that helps in theory with this play.