Jason's Picks (8 Live)
Jason's Past Picks
Could it be that Casey Mize, once looked at as the potential jewel in a rebuilt Tigers rotation, is finally putting it all together? Could it be that, now that Tarik Skubal has won a Cy Young, Jack Flaherty solidly behind him, and Jackson Jobe a potential Rookie of the Year, that Mize is making his last stand with the pressure off? The Twinkies are 6-9 on the RL and 25th in MLB with a .600 OPS. They have had their issues in the field as well. The Tigers have superior situational hitters and far superior bullpen. Simeon Woods Richardson is allowing a ridiculous 24% barrel rate (bottom 3%) and can't get any ground balls.;12th percentile in pitching run value.
The Stros' lineup continues to falter and look like a shell of what it used to be. Too much swing and miss. But Hayden Wesneski does look the part and has been very impressive. I'm basically buying what I've seen from Kyle Hendricks with the Halos and the Astros are pressing.
The Cubs losing Justin Steele will take a toll, perhaps quickly, on the pen and rotation and Ben Brown has not been good so far. Roki Sasaki has been overwhelmed at times and he had his issues in his first outing vs them in Japan. The Dodgers are finally back home and I expect bats to be more alive after the cold trip out East. The Cubs are 11-3-1 to the over and the Dodgers are 9-5 this season. I'm following the trends.
The ball flies in Sac Town, this we know, and as I write this every game but one played there has gone over. The Mets' bats will come alive here after a slow start. The A's might have to go with an opener or patch this together and their staff has struggled. David Peterson is having a nice start, but the A's destroy lefties, leading MLB with a 1.016 OPS vs them and .672 SLG and .310 AVG. I expect them to get work done here. The dimensions here just cannot contain the ball at this level. SAC TOWN OVERS ALL WEEKEND LONG!
We know the Phillies can hit, and I expect they will do plenty of that with Miles Mikolas on the mound. He fell apart last season and the downward spiral continues with his 11.25 ERA and 2.00 WHIP. That's not a blip. Cristopher Sanchez is good but hitable and the Cardinals are pretty good about scoring garbage time runs, as their 9-2-1 over/under speaks to. Alec Bohm, Bryce Harper and Brandon Marsh have nice numbers vs Mikolas. The Cardinals' 4.94 bullpen ERA is 7th worst in MLB. The Phillies' pen is a little shaky, too. Mikolas allowed a whopping 25-26 HRs each of past three full seasons and none yet this year. Hmm. I expect that to change against this mashing lineup.
The Clippers are plenty motivated with a chance to surge to the 3 seed and playing like it. They've covered 12 of 15 and have 11 wins in that span by 13+ points and 10 covers by 6+ points. Pretty impressive. They have No. 2 O rating and D rating in the NBA over the last 15 games, while the Kings are 15th and 26th, respectively. The Clippers are an NBA-best +16.3 over the last 15 games (4 better than anyone else). The Kings are 21st (-2.5). LAC 27-19 ATS with 1 day off. SAC is 4-10 ATS within the division and 1-7 ATS as a home dog. The Clippers won 5 of last 7 vs the Kings, four of them by 9+ points.
I'm not fully buying the Angels long-term yet, but I am buying them right now. Mike Trout is on fire and the bullpen is fresh. They are playing loosey-goosey for Ron Washington and the 'Stros look like their window is shutdown. The lineup is ailing without Kyle Tucker. Jose Altuve in LF looks janky and injuries are taking a toll on the pitching staff. Ronel Blanco is getting shelled with a WHIP over 2. Yordan Alvarez remains totally lost, Christian Walker can't get it going and the Stros' pen just blew another game in improbable fashion. Take the Angels at plus money.