Smith's had exactly four receptions -- and four targets -- in each playoff game so far. He's also caught four or fewer passes in 9 of his past 13. I expect the Eagles to lean on the ground game here, especially with the Chiefs' run defense gashed in three straight games their starters have played in. And when they do throw, I'm nervous how often the ball will get to Smith. The Chiefs' pass rush is consistently one of the best in terms of pressure rate, and when Hurts has been pressured in his past three games, Smith's target per route run rate is a laughably low 2.9%! As long as Hurts is pressured on dropbacks, Smith figures to be limited.

Kelce's had seven-plus grabs in two of his past three, but just eight times in 18 games. Frankly, I'm banking on the Eagles playing zone heavy defense that will leave Kelce open underneath for modest gains. And we know Kelce generally gets the ball a lot anyway, but when Mahomes has been pressured in his past five games, Kelce's led the Chiefs in target per route run rate at 21.6%. That's pretty good. The Eagles figure to bring plenty of pressure while also focusing on not letting up big plays, a good combination for Kelce. And the matchup's good -- Philly's allowed at least seven receptions to a tight end in each of its past two playoff games -- ever since Nakobe Dean got hurt.

This is the time of year when Mahomes will do anything to win, including use his legs. He's been over this in each of his past two games, and in 3 of 4 Super Bowls. And he'll have to run -- the Eagles typically play a lot of zone coverage and I suspect they'll keep that up here. They can also get pressure on the QB without blitzing, a key factor. Of Mahomes' 50 runs that weren't kneel-downs, 47 were off-schedule scrambles, and 34 of them were against zone coverage when a defense took downfield targets away. Tack on some kneel-downs and Mahomes should get on the record for six-plus rushes. I would be OK playing this up to -125, but no higher.

Hunt's been the better Chiefs RB over their past four games, averaging 4.0 yards per rush to Pacheco's 2.8. Hunt's also had at least nine carries in 3 of his past 4. Hunt has played more and done more than Pacheco: More snaps and carries in the red zone, and more than twice as many snaps and carries than Pacheco in the second halves of their past four games with at least six carries then in each game. Hunt seems to be the best option to give them some semblance of a rushing presence against a Bills squad that's let up 4.6 yards per rush and an 18.4% 10-yard rush rate in their past five games with their starters.

Ekeler's been a zone-beater on short throws for Washington, a key factor against an Eagles defense that plays a ton of zone coverage. We've seen twice already this year that the Commanders lean on their RBs against the Eagles -- 11 targets in one game, seven in the other, and at least six receptions to RBs in each. Those catches should fall into Ekeler's hands, especially in no-huddle situations. We also know Philadelphia's run defense has been amazing all year -- this is a counter to that which Washington can use. I'm counting on the Commanders not being able to run, opening up chances for Ekeler to be impactful through the air, just as he's been in each playoff game so far.

This is a good one to take if you think the Commanders will lose as Daniels has been far less pass-heavy in Washington's wins (under the line in 10 of 12 wins). It helps that Philadelphia leads the NFL in time of possession and has already owned the rock for at least 33 minutes in each game against D.C. this year. Daniels was way over this in Week 16 against the Eagles and was one attempt shy in Week 11 when he had two pass attempts called off by penalties. The formula is that the Eagles control the clock with Saquon Barkley, and the Eagles defense slams on the run as they do against pretty much everyone, forcing the Commanders to throw.

Williams has had 18 or fewer rushes in eight games this year including four Rams losses and three one-score wins. Those are the likely outcomes as the Rams hit the road again and take on an Eagles defense that's seen just four running backs land 19-plus rushes against them this year. Remember, Philadelphia's run defense is really good: 3.5 yards per rush and a slim 4.0% 10-yard rush rate allowed to RBs in its past five games. Losing Nakobe Dean is significant, but the impact of that might be felt more when the Rams throw and look for matchups against Oren Burks. Bet on the Eagles dominating time of possession and building a lead, which in turn will lead to fewer runs for Williams.

In his 15 games, Montgomery's been over this 11 times including 10 wins and one close loss. On the four occasions Montgomery didn't get 11-plus carries he was either hurt or involved in a blowout win three times. The Commanders' run defense isn't good as it has let up 4.5 yards per rush and a 12.9% 10-yard rush rate over its past five. I'd expect the Lions to get back to rushing because of that matchup. I get the concern about Montgomery coming off a knee injury, but after the Lions gave Jahmyr Gibbs 23, 18 and 23 carries, my guess is they'll be more concerned about reducing Gibbs' workload a little bit and give Montgomery, who practiced in full all week his normal reps.

This is the time of year when Mahomes starts using his legs more. In literally half of his 18 playoff games he's been over this line. And we've seen him run during the season, including against these Texans in Week 16. In fact, Houston's allowed a league-most 8.1 yards per rush to quarterbacks if you exclude kneel-downs. Seven QBs have at least 30 yards on the ground against the Texans. And remember, the Chiefs run game is far from a sure thing, so more will be on Mahomes' plate. And if the Texans pass rush continues its havoc from last week, Mahomes will have multiple unscheduled runs to help this over cash in.

In the four games Houston lost by 4 or more points, Mixon's had 14 or fewer attempts three times. One of those games was at Kansas City in Week 16. But the greater trend dates back to 2023 when Bobby Slowik was put in charge of this offense. In 15 losses under Slowik, a running back had 16 or more carries just four times, and all were one-score losses. We know the Chiefs are favored to win by nine-plus. Just three running backs had 16 attempts against the Chiefs this season, none had 17, and one of those three games happened when the Chiefs rested their starters in Week 18!

Excluding Week 18 for obvious reasons, Daniels has 292 or more pass and rush yards in each of his past three and in 4 of his past 5. Tampa Bay's defense is one of the most consistent zone-coverage and blitz-heavy units in the league, meaning Daniels has to either get the ball out quickly or use his mobility to throw downfield or run for yardage. Furthermore, the Bucs run defense is among the best in the NFL in its past five games and the Commanders RBs haven't been as effective as they were earlier this year. More work will fall on Daniels' shoulders. Daniels had 88 rush yards in his first-ever game against the Bucs; it would be amazing if he hit that number here.

Not counting the game he got concussed in, Hurts has been under 28 pass attempts in eight games, all Eagles wins. Just once has he been over this line in a game the Eagles won by two-plus scores. Trends by the Packers defense suggest they'll stick with zone coverage while trying to pressure Hurts. When defenses have done that against Hurts this year, the Eagles have run the ball 54% of the time. That rate jumps to 59% run in their past five games. That's their identity right now. Ultimately, it just feels like Philly is a better team now than they were when they played Green Bay in Week 1, and with Jordan Love's elbow a concern, the Eagles should control the game script.

Nix has been over this prop line in each of his past three and in 5 of his past 7. Buffalo has seen at least 22 completions in each of its past eight games that weren't played in snow storms with 23-plus completions in 6 of those 8. The Bills play a lot of zone coverage and really only move to man-to-man coverage when they're in danger of losing. They also don't blitz very much nor rack up tons of sacks. But they do pressure quickly which Nix's quick trigger can neutralize. In that environment, Nix has completed 68.8% of his passes on a low ADOT in his past four, and that completion rate has actually been high in his past eight games.

McConkey's locked up at least 80 yards in each of his past three & 6 of his past 7. I suspect McConkey will stick in the slot at least 60% of his snaps, which he's done in 6 of his past 7 games with Quentin Johnston on the field with him. That should eliminate either of Houston's outside cornerbacks from covering him. The Texans play a lot of zone coverage and won't necessarily pressure Herbert a lot, which gives McConkey added time to get open with his crisp route skills. And because the Texans run defense has played well lately, Herbert will probably shoulder more work, which means more throwing and more targets for McConkey. I'm fine playing this up to 77.5.

Jefferson has seven-plus receptions in five straight games. That's pretty cool. He's also notched seven-plus in 6 of his past 8 against the Lions. That's very cool. And in every annual rematch he's had against Detroit in his career he's had a minimum of nine receptions. Wow. Last week, two 49ers receivers had at least seven grabs against Motown, and the week before two Bears receivers had at least the same amount. The game figures to be high scoring, and the Lions defense probably won't have a ton of chances to pressure Sam Darnold. This is an easy bet to take on one of the league's best receivers.