Excluding Week 18 for obvious reasons, Daniels has 292 or more pass and rush yards in each of his past three and in 4 of his past 5. Tampa Bay's defense is one of the most consistent zone-coverage and blitz-heavy units in the league, meaning Daniels has to either get the ball out quickly or use his mobility to throw downfield or run for yardage. Furthermore, the Bucs run defense is among the best in the NFL in its past five games and the Commanders RBs haven't been as effective as they were earlier this year. More work will fall on Daniels' shoulders. Daniels had 88 rush yards in his first-ever game against the Bucs; it would be amazing if he hit that number here.

Not counting the game he got concussed in, Hurts has been under 28 pass attempts in eight games, all Eagles wins. Just once has he been over this line in a game the Eagles won by two-plus scores. Trends by the Packers defense suggest they'll stick with zone coverage while trying to pressure Hurts. When defenses have done that against Hurts this year, the Eagles have run the ball 54% of the time. That rate jumps to 59% run in their past five games. That's their identity right now. Ultimately, it just feels like Philly is a better team now than they were when they played Green Bay in Week 1, and with Jordan Love's elbow a concern, the Eagles should control the game script.

Nix has been over this prop line in each of his past three and in 5 of his past 7. Buffalo has seen at least 22 completions in each of its past eight games that weren't played in snow storms with 23-plus completions in 6 of those 8. The Bills play a lot of zone coverage and really only move to man-to-man coverage when they're in danger of losing. They also don't blitz very much nor rack up tons of sacks. But they do pressure quickly which Nix's quick trigger can neutralize. In that environment, Nix has completed 68.8% of his passes on a low ADOT in his past four, and that completion rate has actually been high in his past eight games.

McConkey's locked up at least 80 yards in each of his past three & 6 of his past 7. I suspect McConkey will stick in the slot at least 60% of his snaps, which he's done in 6 of his past 7 games with Quentin Johnston on the field with him. That should eliminate either of Houston's outside cornerbacks from covering him. The Texans play a lot of zone coverage and won't necessarily pressure Herbert a lot, which gives McConkey added time to get open with his crisp route skills. And because the Texans run defense has played well lately, Herbert will probably shoulder more work, which means more throwing and more targets for McConkey. I'm fine playing this up to 77.5.

Jefferson has seven-plus receptions in five straight games. That's pretty cool. He's also notched seven-plus in 6 of his past 8 against the Lions. That's very cool. And in every annual rematch he's had against Detroit in his career he's had a minimum of nine receptions. Wow. Last week, two 49ers receivers had at least seven grabs against Motown, and the week before two Bears receivers had at least the same amount. The game figures to be high scoring, and the Lions defense probably won't have a ton of chances to pressure Sam Darnold. This is an easy bet to take on one of the league's best receivers.

It's not like Goff is a crazy passer in the first place; he's had at least 36 pass attempts in just four games this year -- two were losses and only one was a win by 10-plus points. Goff's been under this prop line in 6 of 7 one-score wins and 6 of 7 wins by 10-plus points. I like those odds. Obviously if you think the Vikings will win handily, this isn't the bet to take, but if you're expecting a competitive game (and a big dose of work for Jahmyr Gibbs), then this is the Goff prop to play.

Geno Smith has three incentives that would earn him an additional $6 million in bonus money. He needs 185 passing yards, a completion rate over 69.7% and one more Seahawks win. Smith already has a completion rate over 70%, so as long as he completes a fair amount of short and intermediate throws, and as long as the Rams backups don't wreak havoc, he can get all three without having to throw a lot. Case in point: Even if Smith averages 7.0 yards per attempt this week, which is below his three-year average, he can get over 185 passing yards on just 27 attempts. Once he gets it, and if the Seahawks are up big, he could be benched or just hand off a lot.

McLaughlin has emerged as a staple in the Broncos run game in each of his past four games, and has 40-plus yards in 3 of the 4. Denver appears to tailor its run offense to its opponents' weakness, but the Chiefs have struggled against both runs to the edges and runs between the tackles over their past five. Inside runs have been bad -- 7.3 yards per carry to the Steelers on Christmas and 8.6 to the Browns in Week 15. And they could be playing some backups on defense. McLaughlin has averaged at least 6.0 yards per rush in 3 of his past 4 -- if he gets that average again in a must-win matchup, he'll be over this by seven carries, maybe six.

This impressive rookie has had at least four catches in each of his past two games and at least 59 yards in each. He's won on short routes, intermediate routes, in-breaking routes, out-breaking routes, you name it. The Cowboys pass defense is bottom-10 in defensive EPA on the season and bottom-five in yards after catch per reception against wideouts. And in their past five games they've allowed a total of 884 receiving yards, fourth-most in football, just to wide receivers. That's happened because teams continually throw on them. I expect this to be a competitive game with lots of passing. If they miss a tackle on this guy, he could pick up 38 yards in a blink.

Conner has had at least 122 total yards in each of his past two games, and 110-plus total yards in four of his past six. Trey Benson and Emari Demercado are both hurt, further putting more work onto Conner's plate. The Panthers have given up 5.0 yards per carry this season, tied for the most in football with the Commanders and Saints. And they're dead-last in defensive rushing EPA, defensive rush success rate, rushing touchdowns allowed, rate of zero/negative rush yards allowed and second-worst in 5-yard rush rate allowed. No surprise, offenses average a league-most 27.8 RB rushes per game against them. The Cardinals won't be any different, plus they'll throw to Conner as evidenced by his six-game streak with at least three receptions.

Swift has barely practiced all week but interim offensive coordinator Chris Beatty thinks he'll practice Sunday and play Monday. That's good, because he's been under this total in four straight and has been incredibly inefficient for six games. Per NFL analytics genius Warren Sharp, if you take away a 39-yard run by Swift against the Packers, he has averaged 3.0 yards per carry since Week 9. That's awful. We already know Swift isn't a three-down player for Chicago, we know he's not at 100%, and I do not expect the Bears to be playing with a lead, especially against a Vikings defense that's let up just 3.7 yards per carry to RBs over its past four games including 2.1 against Chicago three weeks ago.

Indianapolis has reliably been one of the league's zone-heaviest coverage defenses this season. They've also struggled to get pressure on the quarterback, landing a 30.3% pass rush pressure rate, seventh-lowest on the season. This sets up Nix to complete a bunch of short passes, which he's been doing all year. As a bonus, the Broncos run game has struggled for the past month, and Nix himself has run much less in his past four games. Lastly, this is essentially a playoff game for the Broncos -- a win gives them a tiebreaker over the Colts and pads their lead over the few other AFC teams in contention. I wouldn't expect Sean Payton to leave this game to his suspect run game.

Getting over 25 completions isn't anything new for Tagovailoa, he's had 28-plus completions in each of his past four games. It'll help that he'll face a Texans pass defense that's typically zone heavy, complete with an 81.8% zone rate in three of its past four games. And while the Texans don't get pressure from their pass rush at a high rate, they are top-three in the league in sack rate (8.9%) and sacks (42). Especially with Terron Armstead not expected at left tackle, the hunch is that Tagovailoa will have to get the ball out quickly, and zone coverage will facilitate short completions. That's just what Tagovailoa does, and he should do a lot of it.

Not only was Pacheco over this prop line last week, but he was over in each of his first two games of the season, and he's literally had 14-plus carries in 12 of his past 14 games including the playoffs. His snaps went from 22 to 31, and another increase is likely this week. On the season the Browns have witnessed 21.1 carries per game against opposing RBs, but since they've lost Jeremiah Owusu-Koramorah to injury, that number has been 23.2 and in their past three games it's been 26.3 RB rushes per game. Tack on inclement weather expected in Cleveland on Sunday, and Pacheco should be in a position to hog handles.

Stafford's been over this prop line in 4 of his past 6 games overall as well as 4 of his past 6 losses. That's important considering everyone including the oddsmakers thinks the Bills will win this game. Buffalo plays a lot of zone coverage in an attempt to keep their opponents' passing nice and short. The Bills have allowed a 68.5% completion rate on the season to opposing offenses, that's seventh-highest, and that number has been 74.6% over Buffalo's past four games including the blizzard they played in last week. It should make it easy for Stafford to complete a ton of passes.