Dave's Picks (4 Live)
On Friday the Cardinals ruled out Marvin Harrison Jr. and Greg Dortch from this week's game against the Rams. It sets up perfectly for receiver Michael Wilson to reprise his role from Weeks 11 and 12 as the team's No. 1 wideout. In those games he caught 15 and 10 passes for over 100 yards each. The Cardinals have been one of the pass-heaviest offenses since Jacoby Brissett took over under center. I suspect Wilson will see a ton of targets as the Cardinals try to chase points against the explosive Rams. I wouldn't be shy taking this over at 6.5 or 7.5 either.
Harvey should get plenty of opportunities against a suspect Raiders run defense that hung in there last week but broke down in the second half. It's because the Raiders offense can't do many things right, and that should be the case this week against a real good Broncos pass rush. Denver should dominate time of possession, affording the chance for plenty of Harvey rush attempts. JK Dobbins had 18 rushes in the Broncos Week 10 win over Las Vegas, one of five RBs in the past five weeks to have 16-plus carries against them. I am OK taking this over at 14.5 and maybe even 15.5.
So far this season Cousins has had weak velocity on his throws, hasn't challenged downfield much and has been very sensitive to pass rush pressure. Cousins averaged a weak 5.6 yards per pass attempt versus Miami, and that was actually sort of good for him. To go over this line at that average he would need to throw 37 passes. I doubt that happens, especially since the Falcons will likely dial up a lot of runs with their RBs. And here's a wacky stat: The Saints have "held" three of the past four QBs they've faced to 172 or fewer yards because opponents have run on them and/or found other ways to score.
I don't doubt that the Raiders will give Ashton Jeanty a lot of opportunities, but I do doubt how effective he'll be. Left tackle Kolton Miller is still sidelined, he was the Raiders BEST-graded run blocker. Guard Jackson Powers-Johnson, graded out as his second-best run-blocking lineman, is now on IR. Jeanty's averaged 3.8 yards per rush this season but in his past four games against some impressive run defenses, that number's been 3.2. And here comes the Cowboys' better defense: All-Pro Quinnen Williams helps the DL so much, and DeMarvion Overshown and Logan Wilson help the LBs. It's going to make their defense a lot better. Tack on a bad game script and this figures to be a long night for Jeanty.
Sam Darnold's been over this line just three times this year, all in high-scoring games (46+ points). This one has a total of 48.5 points, a good sign. Seattle's run game has been a mess and should continue to be given the matchup, which means Darnold will have to throw to keep up in a competitive game. The Rams pass rush has taken a step back over its past two games: one combined vs. the Saints and 49ers with a combined 29.7% pass rush pressure rate. I could see L.A. turning that up a little more this week, but I can also see Darnold work on getting the ball out quickly and often. Seven of the Rams past nine opponents threw 32-plus times.
This number went up but I still like it here. Aaron Jones has settled in as the Vikings' lead RB and should continue to be that this week. The return of center Ryan Kelly would help, but even without Kelly, Jones has averaged over 5.0 yards per rush in each of his past two games back from injury. When Chicago's played without linebacker T.J. Edwards they've allowed 5.8 yards per carry to RBs. With Edwards it's been 4.0 yards per rush. He's that important to Chicago's run defense. Nine RBs this season have had at least 57 rush yards on the Bears, Edwards there or not there. Only two offenses - Cincinnati and New Orleans -- failed to produce a 55-yard rusher.
This is simply a case of a great player in a great situation. Achane's been awesome. The Commanders have allowed 5.6 yards per carry to RBs over their past five games with an 11.6% explosive rush rate allowed. They've been equally awful in other metrics like DVOA, EPA and rush success rate because of a slow-moving linebacker group that's struggled much of the year.
This is a tough matchup for Love against an Eagles pass defense that's been good this year and may be much better with the addition of Jaelan Phillips plus Nolan Smith coming back. All season long, Jordan Love's Achilles heel has been pass rush pressure. He has yet to throw a touchdown under pressure, has completed just 37.7% of his throws when pressured, has a catchable attempt rate of 68.8% when pressured and averages a weak 4.7 yards per attempt when pressured. Tack on losing Tucker Kraft and maybe some chilly weather in Green Bay on Monday night and it's a setup for a disappointing game from Love.
Short-yardage specialist Zach Charbonnet has been pretty inefficient all year. But he's better in gap-scheme runs than zone-scheme. That's not a good fit for him this week -- Arizona has let up 4.2 yards per attempt and a 7.4% explosive rush rate on zone runs versus 3.6 yards per carry and a 4.2% explosive rate on gap scheme. This proved to especially true in Week 4 when the Seahawks gashed the Cardinals with zone runs; Charbonnet had 39 yards on 12 carries. Kenneth Walker has been the better zone-scheme runner since forever in Seattle and he already came out of the bye playing more snaps than Charbonnet last week, a change for Seattle.
I don't see the Bucs running the ball effectively here for two reasons. One, the Patriots in their past five have held RBs to 3.0 yards per rush with no touchdowns and a stunningly low 1.4% explosive rush rate. Two, the Buca can't run the ball with their backs averaging 3.3 ypc in their past four. It'll mean Mayfield has to throw more, and I expect him to lean on everyone in the passing game. He usually saves his low-attempt games for blowout wins. Shop around on this -- I've seen over 34.5 at even money.
After last week's loss at Pittsburgh, Colts coach Shane Steichen expressed remorse in how he prepped his O-line and lamented not being more balanced on offense. His chance at redemption comes this week against a Falcons pass rush ranked first in blitz rate but has had issues stopping the run. A combination of Jonathan Taylor runs and quick throws from Daniel Jones would work here -- dink-and-dunk throws from Jones aren't anything new, and he could easily follow the footsteps of Tua Tagovailoa from two weeks ago against Atlanta. Tagovailoa had a great game but just 205 yards. I expect a low volume pass game for Jones without a lot of deep shots.