Isiah Pacheco finished well above this number in all seven career playoffs games prior to this season, but he's been a different back down the stretch and seen his snap percentage decline for four straight games. Maybe the extra week off and the all-or-nothing nature of the game will boost his usage, but his ineffectiveness on the ground plus the Chiefs interior getting weaker with Joe Thuney playing left tackle makes it hard for me to see Pacheco beating this number.

The Eagles passing game finally got it together in the NFC Championship, and one of the big beneficiaries was Goedert even without being on the field as much as the two previous playoff games. Goedert's 85-yard day could be replicated or even topped against a Chiefs defense that allowed the most yards to tight ends in the regular season with 10 games surrendered at least 54 yards to a tight end. Even if you missed a better number last week, I'd play this Over up to 54.5.

Patrick Mahomes did not play at an MVP level for much of this season, including throwing picks in his first seven games. But since throwing two picks in the regular-season loss against the Bills, he's been interception-free in eight straight games. He's also only thrown interceptions in five of his 20 career playoff games, including just once in nine games over the last three years. The Eagles will likely need a lucky deflection to ruin this prop.

Jalen Hurts looked much better as a passer in the NFC Championship, but it was only his second game with more than 18 completions since Week 3. Even if the Eagles get behind, I expect the game plan will be to feed Saquon Barkley behind their elite O-line against a Chiefs rush defense that has not performed well in recent weeks. Expect Hurts to pick his spots as a passer and tuck the ball to scramble plenty after two weeks of rest.

We faded this prop in the NFC Championship and it cashed for us, but I felt a bit fortunate to get away with the win as Hurts did not look as bad moving around as expected. With the extra week to rest, he should resume his regular role as a runner, which led to a 15-yard rush in five straight games before the NFC title game despite playing through an injury. Hurts has had a 12-yard rush in 13 of 18 games and an 11-yard rush in two others, so I like the value here at the FanDuel price.

This is a number that has cashed in 11 of Smith's 16 games this year, including twice in the playoffs. He also has one game with a 19-yard reception, so it is a rare occurrence for him to not at least approach this number. With more potential passing for the Eagles if this game turns into a shootout, I like the chances Smith gets Over this number, and I'd also take him Over 20.5.

This might be Travis Kelce's last game, and narrative makes many of his props a little higher than they should be. For example, his receiving yardage prop is 61.5 against a great defense after averaging 10 yards fewer in the regular season. Even if he doesn't hit that Over, I do believe he has a 20-yard reception in him, which he's done in 10 of 18 games this season despite posting the lowest yardage total of his career. That gives this a path to cashing even if we don't get vintage Kelce for four quarters.

Jalen Hurts has had two weeks to get healthy for the Super Bowl, but even in the NFC Championship he was impactful as a rusher while scoring three touchdowns. He's scored in 12 of his 18 games played (leaving one of those very early due to injury), and he had just one fewer TD than Barkley in the regular season despite the huge gap between the pair in odds for this prop. With the Chiefs defense struggling against the run, this prop is mispriced.

The Chiefs took down the Bills in the playoffs yet again, but the Buffalo offense had success pounding the football while the defense couldn't overcome the loss of Christian Benford early. The Eagles have the most overwhelming rushing attack in football and a much better and healthier defense to counter Patrick Mahomes. Since Bills-Chiefs was a coin flip in Kansas City, I believe the Eagles should be favored as a stronger opponent on a neutral field, so I'll happily take the points down to a pick 'em.

The Bills have a lot of options in the passing game for the Chiefs to defend, and nailing down who is going to get looks on a game-to-game basis can be tough. Keon Coleman, despite being on the field plenty as a rookie, just has not been that guy catching Josh Allen's eye. Throwing out the Week 18 game where many players rested and Coleman saw 10 targets (but caught only two), he's had one catch in five of his previous six games, and with Kansas City's talent at cornerback, I expect he's not going to have many chances in this game either.

The return of Marquise Brown in Week 16 bumped Noah Gray from the starting lineup, and he saw just one target in each of the last three regular-season games while playing less than 50% of the snaps in each. But his usage was back to 57% against the Texans in a game where he caught three passes for 14 yards, a similar line to what he did against the Bills in the postseason last year. This is a great matchup for Chiefs tight ends after the Ravens threw it to their TE duo 12 times for 134 yards, and Gray could hit this Over on just one catch.

Travis Kelce was in vintage form last week against the Texans, putting up his highest yardage total in a playoff game since the Super Bowl loss to the Bucs four years ago. He also scored a touchdown, which he's done in 14 of 19 playoff games since Patrick Mahomes took over the offense. The Bills had major issues against Ravens tight ends last week, and that should be a matchup Andy Reid exploits in this matchup. I'm surprised these odds aren't closer to even despite Kelce's limited trips to the end zone in the regular season.

Both these offenses had trouble getting on track despite wins in the divisional round, as the pair combined for less than 500 yards and both sat well below 5.0 yards per play. I believe they'll have more success against each other. The Bills are dealing with key injuries in the secondary, and if No. 1 corner Christian Benford isn't cleared then Patrick Mahomes shouldn't have much issue in the passing game, especially with pressure not likely to be as big an issue. Buffalo was the only team to score 30 on Kansas City (excluding Week 18), and the Bills' depth at receiver makes them tougher to defend for a Chiefs defense that wasn't that impressive despite the score last week. Both teams score 24 here.

The Washington defense will do whatever it can to slow down Saquon Barkley, and one way to help is controlling the clock with Brian Robinson Jr. Washington stays committed to giving Robinson the ball when healthy, and the only three times this year he didn't get to double-digit carries were due to injury or limiting workloads in Week 18. He had 16 carries in the first Eagles game, which was close until the fourth quarter, and 10 in the second with Washington playing from behind. I love getting even odds to get to his typical baseline of 10 carries despite the tough matchup on paper.

Jalen Hurts' health is in question after suffering a knee injury in the win over the Rams, and while I'd be shocked if he misses the game, I do expect his mobility to be impacted. Therefore I want to look at his rushing Unders, and this is the one he has hit most often in regular run of play during the season, failing to record a 12+ yard rush six times. One of those games was his first against Washington, where he 10 times for 39 yards and none longer than nine yards. His rushing yards line of 29.5 is just a little too low for me to play, so I'm opting to attack his props this way instead.