The Rams surprised many people by dominating the Vikings on Monday ...

It's no surprise the 14-3 Vikings are favored in this game, but I'm going to fade them after their abysmal offensive performance in a playoff environment against a beat-up defense. The Rams won the first meeting between these teams by 10, with Matthew Stafford carving up a Minnesota defense that has played a relatively easy schedule and gotten to play from ahead a lot. With the change in venue, I have Vikings -1.5 as my line and think there's solid value backing the Rams, but wait to see if you can get a +3.

Jayden Daniels should be up against a Tampa Bay secondary dealing with a number of injuries, but I still expect his work as a runner to be key to his output. He reached at least 66 yards in three straight games prior to seeing a 45% snap share of Week 18, and with mobile quarterbacks typically seeing an uptick in rushing production in the playoffs, I believe there's a good chance Daniels at least matches his 52.4-yard average here.

Only one of the Packers' six losses has been by more than five points, but this is their toughest spot of the year, on the road against what might be the most complete team in the league. Injuries to Jaire Alexander (among other defenders) and Christian Watson are big on both sides of the ball for the Packers, giving this more of a chance to turn into a dominant win for the Eagles. I think this line should be at least 5.5 and I'd play the Eagles all the way up to -6.5.

Bo Nix has a tough task at hand going on the road to face one of the best teams in the league in his playoff debuts, and I expect to see him use his legs a bunch. In the eight games he failed to reach 25 rushing yards this year, the Broncos won by double digits six times. This doesn't figure to follow that script, and with established QBs running more in the postseason, we should expect Nix to follow that pattern after averaging 25.3 yards per game in the regular season.

Josh Allen has a tough defensive matchup in the first round against the Broncos, and that should make him a willing runner in order to extend drives. While he's averaged 37.3 rush yards per game in regular season in his career, that's up to 56.3 yards per game in the playoffs, with Allen getting to 54 yards in seven of his 10 games. While only one QB has topped 40 rushing yards against the Broncos all season, the spot makes sense to back Allen in the playoffs at this number.

Lamar Jackson is coming off his best regular season as a passer, but we should expect him to use his legs in the playoffs. He's averaged 59.9 yards per game in the regular season and hasn't had a season below 50 yards per game since becoming a full-time starter, but he's also rushed for 86.8 yards per game in the playoffs with only one of his six games short of 54 rushing yards. Even though the Steelers held him to 22 yards on nine carries in the most recent meeting, I'll back Jackson to get to 50 yards as usual in this spot.

The gap between these two teams looks massive heading into the playoffs, with the Ravens winning their last four games 135-43 and the Steelers losing their last four games 109-57. However, I expect Pittsburgh will do a better job slowing down the Baltimore rushing attack than it did in Week 15, and George Pickens can't possibly be as bad here as he was in the Bengals game. This is also a trend play, with divisional underdogs 10-4 ATS in the playoffs since the 2014 season. I expect the Steelers to turn this into a defensive battle the Ravens will be happy to win by a touchdown.

The Texans are coming off mostly a week of rest for key players, and while the first string looked solid against the Titans, I'm still worried they'll turn into the unit that struggled mightily down the stretch when facing a solid Chargers defense as L.A. has held 13 of 17 opponents to 20 points or fewer. The Chargers can get dominated on the ground by good rushing offenses but Houston doesn't qualify there, so this will largely be about taking away Nico Collins and forcing Houston to find another way to score, and I don't see them finding three touchdowns that way.

The Lions defense looked like a major problem against the 49ers but was bailed out by a few bad Brock Purdy passes, which Sam Darnold is certainly susceptible to. Still, I'll stick with them at home laying less than a field goal against basically anyone but the top 2-3 teams in the league. Minnesota isn't quite there and the market agrees, making the Vikings first underdogs than a one-point favorite at home against the Packers last week. Detroit won the first Minnesota game without Aidan Hutchinson and I believe they score enough to win again, especially with the more trustworthy kicker in this one.

The Rams were able to lock up the NFC West a week early, which has altered the expectations for this game. I'd make the Rams 3.5-point favorites if a playoff spot was at stake, but the market clearly believes they'll be resting players. I agree, based on Sean McVay's history in these situations. The Seahawks can still get to 10 wins for the first time since 2020, and Geno Smith has millions of dollars in incentives based on his production in this game. If McVay announces key players will rest, this spread should increase a bit, so I'm hopping on it now with that expectation.

There's a chance this line looks very different come Sunday morning, and that's because the Chargers' motivation hinges on what happens in Bengals-Steelers. If Pittsburgh wins, which I believe will happen, the Chargers will be locked into the 6 seed and can rest players or pull key starters early. The Raiders have played themselves out of the running for the No. 1 pick with two straight wins, indicating they're giving their all to close the season on a high note for Antonio Pierce. Be sure to make a play on a Steelers-Raiders money line parlay as well due to the correlation.

The Broncos are one win away from a playoff spot and facing a Chiefs team resting players, which should allow for Denver's best receiver to have a good game. There are contract incentives on the line for Sutton if he reaches 82 yards, and as a result I expect Bo Nix to feed him early and often. Sutton got to 70 yards in the first meeting with a competitive Chiefs team, so even if most of the starting defense is on the field he should have a good shot of reaching his incentive.

DeMeco Ryans said this week that "everybody will be out there playing" in this game despite being locked into the 4 seed, but because there's uncertainty they'll play the whole game, the spread is far below where it should be. We can take advantage of that by taking the Texans in the first half and expect them to build an early lead against a Tennessee team more interested in evaluating players than winning, as they plan to play both QBs here. Houston needs to get back on track before the playoffs start, and one good half of football should make Ryans feel better about his team moving forward.

The Buccaneers are a win away from locking up the division, and the offense has been cooking with six straight 400-yard performances (including two 500+ yard games). The Saints' last gasp appeared to be the near upset of Washington as they've crumbled the last two weeks, including at home to a bad Raiders team. This should be a game where the Bucs have the foot on the gas in get outside this number quickly, and even if Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave are cleared to play I don't see the Saints fighting to cover here. I'd make this line Bucs -13 even in a normal week without motivation factors at play.