Fading the big number on Florida State's team total as a slight home underdog. I like the full-game Under, with a strong lean toward UNC, but ultimately, I'm just looking to bet against Florida State scoring 78+ points here.

Huge game for both teams at the top of the Big Ten. Purdue looks to avoid losing three consecutive games against strong opponents. I expect a highly competitive, half-court game with a slower pace in the first half. Purdue has been a strong under team again this season, especially at home (4-9). Taking under 70.5 and isolating Michigan State under 35.5.

Kansas State is playing well at the moment, with five consecutive wins while covering the spread in eight straight games. However, I believe they have reached peak market value here at just +2.5 or +3. My simulations make them +8 home underdogs against Arizona.

I'm playing Hopkins over 11.5 receiving yards here, as I have his median projection at 19 yards in this matchup. I expect Hopkins to still have a role in scripted drives and the red zone in Andy Reid's offense. He wasn't shy about chasing a ring with KC, and I believe the Chiefs will target him on a line he can eclipse with just one reception.

Ohio State is the better team and benefits from playing this game on campus in the cold, but my simulations set the line at 6. I expect Nico Iamaleava to rely on his legs more tonight and keep this one close.

I'm buying Notre Dame here at -6.5 (-115) as I set the line at -9 in a true home game in the cold. The Notre Dame running game should be the difference, with Jeremiyah Love, Jadarian Price, and Riley Leonard keeping the chains moving and putting significant pressure on Indiana.

I’m taking 0.1u lean here on the 1Q u7.5 -115, as I have the line priced closer to -125. I expect a slow start offensively from Chicago and just a single scoring drive from the Vikings with the clock moving quickly.

This is more of a lean, with just 0.15 units invested, but I'm on the Browns +6 as my simulation makes the number +4 for the Broncos. The Browns excel at one thing in particular: generating pressure on the quarterback. Bo Nix has been solid, but this is a tough test against a strong defensive unit. I like the Browns to keep it close, especially coming off the mini bye week from Thursday night to Monday night.

I still don't think the Dolphins are properly rated due to the wild swings in personnel early in the season, with Tua out and Tyreek injured. On the defensive side of the ball, they're playing well, and offensively Tua has a number of great options in Jonnu Smith, De'Von Achane, Jaylen Waddle, and, of course, Tyreek Hill. Green Bay is dealing with injuries in key spots on the short week, with Doubs in concussion protocol and Jaire Alexander managing a torn PCL. I set the Packers at -1.8 here at home on the short week.

I project the Ravens as -3.9 road favorites in this matchup. While teams can only play the opponents in front of them, my model suggests the Chargers may be slightly overvalued based on the strength of their recent opponents. They struggled defensively against Cincinnati, and this matchup poses an even greater challenge with Baltimore's strong running game. I call Lamar Jackson "Mr. Monday Night" for a reason, and I expect him to deliver again in this crucial game with significant implications for AFC playoff seeding.

This is a classic "pay-to-find-out" spot for me. I have Ohio State as a -17 home favorite over Indiana. Ohio State’s strength on the defensive line will pose significant problems for the Hoosiers in both the run and passing game, especially since Indiana has yet to face a defense of this caliber in such a tough road environment. It's an automatic play at -12.5, where 13 and 14 are key win conditions

I'm playing the Vols here at +11, a line that suggests Nico Iamaleava won’t play for Tennessee. If he does, this line likely moves back to 8 or 8.5, which would be favorable for us. Backup QB Gaston Moore knows this offense better than Nico, having spent his entire career in Josh Heupel’s system. Look for Tennessee to lean on a defense that profiles similarly to Ole Miss, which gave Georgia trouble. Moore isn’t afraid to throw deep, as he drew three defensive PI calls in the second half of the last game. Georgia likely wins, but the Vols cover within the key number of +11

The Eagles have a strong home-field advantage in this must-win game, which is likely the deciding game in the NFC East race, especially considering the Commanders' remaining schedule. Since Week 5, the Eagles have boasted the NFL's best defense in terms of EPA per play. Washington is most vulnerable against the run, which is promising for Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley and should set up big opportunities for A.J. Brown in play-action. This line should be at least -3, requiring a margin of 4 or more to cover.

I like Alabama in this spot, with extra time to prepare and the season on the line. LSU's weaknesses were exposed a bit in the second half against Texas A&M. Jalen Milroe has the skill set to use his legs to pick up first downs and keep the Tigers' defense guessing. I have Alabama at -4 here and firmly believe the line should be at least a full -3. Death Valley at night is tough, but I like the Bama side in this one.

0.2u play here on Ravens Team Total Under 30.5 (-120). Although it’s a short week, the Bengals' defense is improving. This is a clear must-win game for Cincinnati, and I believe they'll succeed in moving the ball and controlling the clock. This play is mostly about the number, as there are many paths to a Baltimore win with scores of 24, 27, 28, and 30 points. Reaching 31 points in a divisional game requires a lot to go right.