Prop's Picks (1 Live)
Prop's Past Picks
B365 @ -115. Fading a star player in a crucial playoff game is akin to playing with fire, but Damian Lillard does not seem 100% healthy coming off his prolonged absence with blood clot issues. He’s only been able to muster 24 and 15 PRA in his two games thus far, and he’s struggled against Andrew Nembhard’s coverage (3/12 shooting). He could very well turn it around, but I don’t see that happening in Game 4. Would bet this down to under 29.5 PRA, as I have him at 27.
DraftKings. Clarke Schmidt is pitching in his third game of the season. His first two starts saw him get roughed up a bit, with 11 hits, 8 runs allowed in only a combined 9.2 innings. He did manager nine strikeouts, but this is a very tough matchup. The Blue Jays are stingy with strikeouts, registering only an 18.3% K% against righties over the last two weeks (18.1% for the season). This is the second game of the Sunday double-header, but the Yankees did not need to deplete their bullpen in the first game.
Caesar’s. The read here is that Osvaldo Bido has an incredibly short leash the third time through the order. He’s yet to finish six innings in any of his five starts, and he’s been pulled in the sixth inning in each of his last two starts. The third time through, opponents are hitting 8/23 off of him, with three home runs (1.190 OPS). Yes, the White Sox are not exactly the offense I want to rely on in this situation, but they’ve been patient just faced Bido (5.2 IP, 5 H), and they’ve been hitting well in Sacramento. The A’s new home has proved to be a hitters park, and Bido struggled in both of his home starts.
FanDuel. Kris Bubic has been electric this season. He’s cleared this line in each of his five starts (33 strikeouts in 31 IP), pitching to a 1.45 ERA. He gets the Astros, who are more strikeout prone on the road (23% K%). Bubic has just been too good - I’d bet this one up to -150.
Caesar’s. Simply put, if you’re giving me an outs prop under at plus odds for a pitcher who has failed to clear this line in 4/5 against a patient team (eighth most pitches per plate appearance) that’s also hot at the plate (117 wRC+ versus righties the last two weeks), I’m going to take it.
FanDuel. After a slower start to the season on the strikeout front, Merrill Kelly has rebounded nicely with 14 strikeouts over his last two starts. He now gets the Braves, who although are swinging hotter bats, are still strikeout prone. The Braves are running a 22.7% K% over the last two weeks against righties.
DraftKings. This line reads as a bit of an overreaction to Walker Buehler’s Patriot’s Day start against the White Sox. The fact is, Buehler is under in two of five outings, and has struggled versus left-handed hitters (.841 OPS allowed, and a 20% K%). The Guardians have looked like themselves over the last two weeks with a 114 wRC+ and only a 17% K% against righties. I expect 7-8 left handed bats in the lineup today.
Caesar’s. I’m still not sold on Robbie Ray being able to provide any length or efficiency for the Giants. He’s under this line in 4/5 starts, and continuing to struggle more as he progresses through the lineup. While the Rangers aren’t exactly a patient team at the plate, they do have better splits (walk rate, wRC+, and OPS) against southpaws. But right now I’m in, “prove it” mode for Ray on an outs line this high.
DraftKings. Sonny Gray, traditionally dominant at home, gets a familiar opponent with the Brewers today. His 28% K% in St. Louis is similar to least season’s 29% - he was 12/13 to the over in his fully stretched out home starts last season, and 2/3 this year. He gets the Brewers, whom he’s had strikeout success against. And with a day game on tap, he should see a favorable lineup potentially featuring the backup catcher. I’m betting this to win 1.2 units.
FanDuel. I’m back on Naz Reid after a disappointing Game 2 performance. Reid was plagued by foul trouble in the first half (zero points), but came to life in the second half (nine points). With the Lakers continuing to employ smaller lineups, it’s increasingly difficult to keep Rudy Gobert on the floor. Reid was a major factor in Game 1 (23 points), and I expect a bounceback in a crucial third game.
FanDuel. It’ll only be his third outing of the season, but I’m backing Andrew Abbott and his strong start to 2025. The lefty had an off year in terms of strikeouts in 2024, but he’s been regarded as a high strikeout pitcher throughout his amateur and professional career. Coming off two stellar performances (16 Ks in 11 IP), Abbott’s tweaked changeup has yielded strong results thus far. And it’s a fantastic matchup against the strikeout prone Rockies (28.9% K% versus southpaws) and the conditions at Coors Field today won’t be as hitter friendly as usual (per Ballpark Pal).
FanDuel. Running it back with Andrew Nembhard, who has scored 17 points in each of the first two games of this series. In a closer Game 2, he was up to 34 minutes - expect that to stay the course in Game 3, especially with Damian Lillard back. Not afraid to take a big shot either - should find himself with some open looks.
FanDuel. Russell Westbrook has now exceeded this line in 21 of the last 30 games he’s played with both Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, including games 1 and 2. The rub for Game 3 is that Michael Porter Jr. is questionable with a shoulder injury. I expect him to suit up, but if he’s ineffective at all, Nuggets coach David Adelman likely goes with Russ down the stretch.
FanDuel at +110. Playable to -120. I’m once again targeting a pitching out under for a starter going against the Brewers. Milwaukee has seven guys in the lineup today who see above average pitches per plate appearances, and as a team, they own the eighth lowest chase rate. That should bode well against Landen Roupp - the Giants starter has the third lowest strike zone percentage out of 124 pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched this season. Pitching for the first time on four days rest this season, and yet to establish a third pitch to go along with his curveball and sinker, we’ll see how much leeway he’s given the third time through the order.