The Tar Heels missed a chance to improve their NCAA Tournament resume with a loss to rival Duke in the regular-season finale. Now, they will need a deep run in the conference tournament to merit consideration. But it will be difficult to create separation from a late-blooming Notre Dame club that lost the lone season meeting 74-73 on a late 4-point play. The Irish's grinding style lends itself to close games, giving more value to the double-digit spread.

The Bulldogs have had a modest season by their lofty standards but they came on strong down the stretch with 10 wins in their last 12 games. The lone loss in that span came at the hands of the Gaels, who swept the regular-season series 2-0. Last year, St. Mary's won the WCC title to halt Gonzaga's four-year reign. Look for the Bulldogs to avenge that loss by starting another streak Tuesday.

Hopkins' absurdly low snap count (12) in the AFC title game speaks to him falling out of favor with the Chiefs coaching staff. Even so, he remains their top jump-ball type threat in the red zone and, with 2 weeks to prepare, it would be difficult to envision a game plan that didn't involve the veteran WR getting some touches.

This is the most basic meat-and-potatoes prop you can imagine. But the price makes it a bargain of sorts. For a generational talent looking at his 4th Super Bowl ring, 2 passing TDs feels like a floor. It took OT to hit last year, but Mahomes has clipped this mark in all of Kansas City's Super Bowl victories with him under center.

This number has escalated, but the QB's combo line feels borderline game-script proof considering he can pick up the slack in either discipline according to the game situation. Expect Hurts to put up big numbers Sunday.

The meager price on this prop sends trap-type alarms, but we're willing to lose this bet. You should be too. The dual-threat QB has multiple TDs in every playoff game and scored three times in the Super Bowl two seasons ago. The Eagles' steadfast dedication to the goal-line shove provides massive equity, and Hurts can score from outside the goal line as well.

Although one could argue that Eagles have the better man-for-man personnel, we believe the stronger argument lies with backing Kansas City. Fade QB Patrick Mahomes, coach Andy Reid and this dynastic Chiefs club at your own peril. They have a chance to make history with a Super Bowl repeat and the price will never get better for a club that has earned unfadeable status.

This is a high number, especially for a TE, but we expect the receiving end of the iconic Kansas City duo to deliver in the AFC title game one more time. Kelce went for 7 rec/117 yards and a TD last week against Houston and against Buffalo last year he went 5/75 with 2 TDs.

The cyclical nature of rivalries in professional sports suggests this could be a ripe time for Josh Allen and the Bills to overcome the Chiefs following 3 failed attempts. However, it's a difficult ask against the most prolific QB of this generation on his home field, with an historic Super Bowl three-peat attempt looming. Although many respected analysts are on the Bills, you'll never find a cheaper price to back this dynastic Kansas City club with the highest of stakes.

This is just a massive value price for the rookie dynamic QB who has hit this mark 10 total times this season, including in both of Washington's playoff victories.

Following consecutive road wins over what had been a red-hot Tampa Bay team and the Super Bowl favorite Lions, there's only one way to play this NFC title game. Take the points with perhaps the most prolific rookie QB in NFL history against an Eagles club that has notched 2 playoff wins but has looked far from impressive in them.

This coveted key number presents a clear value play on the Sean McVay-led Rams, who showed their dangerous postseason form in a blowout of the Vikings last week. The Eagles looked relatively unimpressive in their 22-10 win over a lifeless Packers club and could be in for a dire wake-up call if they aren't ready for a 4-quarter fight from Los Angeles.

The Rams won the first matchup between these clubs 30-20 behind an efficient offense that scored TDs on all three of its red-zone trips and a 66-50 edge in total plays run. Vikings QB Sam Darnold played reasonably well in throwing for 240 yards and 2 TDS, but he was check-down heavy and deep threat Jordan Addison was a non-factor. Darnold's meltdown last week in the biggest game of the season can't inspire any other position than backing Los Angeles in this spot.

This one comes through gritted teeth, considering the Buckeyes were our pre-playoff choice to win the CFP and have looked the part of a team of destiny following a pair of blowout victories. Even so, out of purely value-driven principle, we have to side with the underdog. This is because the live look-ahead line in this matchup was Ohio State -1.5, so we’re snagging nearly an extra touchdown of value. The short-memory public will undoubtedly pile relentlessly on the Buckeyes, which gives us a chance to grab the coveted +7, if available. Texas can equalize Ohio State in terms of pure talent and has the default home-turf edge at AT&T Stadium. Both clubs boast top-5 scoring defensive units, enhancing the value of the points.

The look-ahead line on this game had the Lions as a slight favorite, so we'll take the window of value on Penn State as an underdog. On paper this rates as a pick'em and three's no doubt the Irish have looked daunting in their first 2 CFP games. Both top-5 defensive units are essentially a push. But the Penn State offense, which features three high draft picks at QB, TE and RB, gives the Lions an edge in firepower. We're banking on that factor being the difference.