The Rams won the first matchup between these clubs 30-20 behind an efficient offense that scored TDs on all three of its red-zone trips and a 66-50 edge in total plays run. Vikings QB Sam Darnold played reasonably well in throwing for 240 yards and 2 TDS, but he was check-down heavy and deep threat Jordan Addison was a non-factor. Darnold's meltdown last week in the biggest game of the season can't inspire any other position than backing Los Angeles in this spot.

This one comes through gritted teeth, considering the Buckeyes were our pre-playoff choice to win the CFP and have looked the part of a team of destiny following a pair of blowout victories. Even so, out of purely value-driven principle, we have to side with the underdog. This is because the live look-ahead line in this matchup was Ohio State -1.5, so we’re snagging nearly an extra touchdown of value. The short-memory public will undoubtedly pile relentlessly on the Buckeyes, which gives us a chance to grab the coveted +7, if available. Texas can equalize Ohio State in terms of pure talent and has the default home-turf edge at AT&T Stadium. Both clubs boast top-5 scoring defensive units, enhancing the value of the points.

The look-ahead line on this game had the Lions as a slight favorite, so we'll take the window of value on Penn State as an underdog. On paper this rates as a pick'em and three's no doubt the Irish have looked daunting in their first 2 CFP games. Both top-5 defensive units are essentially a push. But the Penn State offense, which features three high draft picks at QB, TE and RB, gives the Lions an edge in firepower. We're banking on that factor being the difference.

Arguably the Irish’s most impressive victory came in Week 1 on the road against a sturdy Texas A&M club. So, they have proved they can win against a quality opponent in a difficult environment. The injury loss of Georgia starting QB Carson Beck will make the Georgia offense a bit more one-dimensional, which should also favor Notre Dame. Even so, we saw the short-handed Bulldogs find a way to outlast a more talented Texas club in the SEC title game, and we’re predicting they do so again before a Superdome crowd that will likely grant them a default home-turf advantage on a neutral site.

It's telling that the Buckeyes are favored on the road in this rematch despite losing the first matchup 32-31 in Eugene. They were felled by eight penalties and two big turnovers, and the clock ran out on a potential game-winning drive. We anticipate Ohio State building on perhaps its most complete effort of the season in a first-round drubbing of Tennessee and advancing to the CFP semifinals.

When the Sun Devils started 6-1, I thought they were performing well above expectation but also caught more than their share of breaks and were a major regression candidate down the stretch. Turns out, they were just getting started. They closed out the season with six consecutive victories , including the destruction of a solid Iowa State club for the Big 12 title after fetching preseason odds of 125/1 to do so. The Longhorns are probably in for a little more resistance than they have bargained for following their 38-24 first-round win over Clemson. We’d love to grab the key number of +14 in this spot but can’t resist taking the points with a viable underdog.

If this were a regular-season game at a neutral site, the Cardinals would be a moderate favorite and the only side we would consider. But Louisville will be missing QB Tyler Shough, its top two defensive lineman and a top WR to NFL draft preparation. Washington is remarkably intact for a power-conference program and needs this win to help offset an otherwise disappointing season. The Huskies rate to be a strong play in this one.

Both teams are missing some key parts. Iowa RB Kaleb Johnson, the Big Ten rushing leader, and Missouri WR Luther Burden are both headed to the NFL and expected to be high draft picks. But a stout Iowa defense that is allowing just 17.1 ppg (No. 9 nationally) should be the difference.

There might normally be a letdown concern for Army following its historic 11-win season that included a conference championship. But the Knights are coming off a blowout loss to rival Navy in which they lost the Commander-In-Chief trophy amid their worst performance of the season. Louisiana Tech will play the role of bowl savior after transfer=portal-gutted Marshall withdrew. The Bulldogs will be happy to be there, but this is a five-win team whose only victory over a winning opponent came against Western Kentucky. Moreover, the Bulldogs lost a good share of their top run defenders to the portal as well. This one has all the makings of another Army blowout we’ve become accustomed to seeing this year against lesser competition.

In a bow, season filled with lackluster games because of team gutted by the transfer portal or coaching carousel, this one rates as a throwback bowl showcase -- the kind you used to reserve holiday time for as a must-watch. Colorado has protected the future of its star players by taking out insurance against potential injuries and BYU is expected to be at full strength as well. The Cougars had two losses by nine combined points that kept them out of the CFP. Their top-20 defense will be the stingiest the Buffaloes have faced all year and that factor will be the difference.

There's plenty at stake for both teams as the Ravens continue their late surge toward a division title. The Texans already have the AFC South wrapped up but need to adjust again to their limited offensive personnel following the injury to Tank Dell. The full touchdown is plenty of value for a playoff-bound and motivated home underdog.

This game carries massive significance to both Washington's playoff hopes and as a measuring stick to see if the Commanders are capable of competing with the NFC's elite clubs. The value on the early key numbers is too rich to pass up.

The Jets showed a little life last week against the similarly hapless Jags. But this club is just 2-4 at home and doesn't appear in a great spot for a second straight win against a Rams club that is still fighting for a division title.

The Lions have been unfadeable for the most part this season, but this is an exception. Given their extreme injury concerns on both sides of the ball, combined with a rare outdoor game, the underwhelming Bears are the ATS value side.

There's plenty of excitement surrounding Atlanta's overdue switch to rookie Michael Penix at QB. But it's ambitious to expect a team that rarely separates, even against poor opposition, to do so in a signal-caller's first career NFL start.