Darnold’s passing yard total set at 270.5 seems inflated to me. When these teams met in Week 3, Darnold threw 18/25 for 240 yards in a 30-20 Vikings loss. The Rams secondary has struggled this season, but their defensive front gets great pressure. This Vikings offensive line is really starting to miss LT Christian Darrisaw. Darnold is coming off a rough 18/41 for 166 yards showing against the Lions in Week 18. He may be turning back into his old self. If breakout rookie DE Jared Verse and company can make him uncomfortable in the pocket, he may struggle again. Even against a below average secondary, this line feels too high for Darnold in a road playoff meeting.

Rams +3 popped up for a brief moment. The line shifted back to +2.5 at -102, so you can buy this up to +3 for a good price tag. L.A has a clear rest advantage. They sat their starters in Week 18, while the Vikings were routed by the Lions. Teams that travel after playing Detroit have struggled the following week this season. Sam Darnold’s old flaws may be returning, and this Rams defense has quietly improved throughout the year. Defensive rookie of the year Jared Verse can disrupt Darnold in the pocket, and turn him into an average QB. When these teams met in Week 8, Puka Nacua unexpectedly returned from injury and torched the Vikings secondary. L.A has the weapons to beat Minnesota.

I’m joining the Jayden Daniels rushing yards party. Daniels rushed for 50+ yards in 8 games this season, and likely would have done so 10+ times if not for a late season hip injury, and only playing the first half in Week 18. I expect the rookie QB to trust his legs in his first playoff game. This matchup is likely to be a shootout, with Daniels needing to answer scores from Baker Mayfield. If the Bucs do anything well on defense, it’s getting pressure up the middle behind DT Vita Vea. Look for Daniels to scramble early and often.

Breakout TE Cade Otton will return to action for Tampa Bay tonight, after missing the last three games with a knee injury. Otton’s presence in the middle of the field was key to this Bucs offense. Mike Evans will be matched up with his rival, CB Marshon Lattimore. Mayfield spreads the ball to all targets, and he will find a reliable tight end in between the numbers. Otton went over this line in 8 games this season. There is no doubt that Otton is capable of going for 30+ receiving yards, so our gamble is ultimately on his health. Otton logged full practices on Thursday & Friday, and by all accounts he is good to go. I like him to clear this modest total easily.

McLaurin is coming off an epic end to the season, catching a game- winning TD pass to secure Washington the #6 seed. The Commanders thrilling Week 18 win rewards them with a favorable matchup against a weak Buccaneers secondary, which ranked 4th worst in passing yards allowed per game in the regular season (243.9). McLaurin has gone over this current line in 5 of his last 6 games, seeing 6+ targets in each of them as well. Tampa has three starting defensive backs that are currently ‘questionable’ to play with lingering injuries. Daniels & Mclaurin can attack this Bucs defense over the top.

Daniels threw a 30+ yard pass in 10 games this season. He faces a Bucs secondary that has struggled all year. Tampa ranks 29th in total pass defense, and allowed 243.9 pass yards per game (4th worst in the NFL). Bucs head coach Todd Bowles is known for his blitz-heavy defensive scheme, which leaves them susceptible to explosive plays. Daniels can soften this defense with his legs, and then beat them over the top when they overcommit to the blitz. Look for a deep shot to Terry McLaurin.

Saquon Barkley had a historic season, and may have broken Eric Dickerson’s rushing yards record if not for resting in Week 18. That rest was explicitly for this reason- To continue feeding Barkley carries in volume. Barkley had 20+ carries in 10 games this season, and had a combined 60 carries in his final two games. With Jalen Hurts clearing concussion protocol just a day ago, I expect Philly to lean heavily on Barkley. I was kicking myself for not taking this prop on Derrick Henry yesterday. I won’t miss out on betting on another star RB to put the team on his back.

The Eagles high-octane offense has taken some time to get going in many games this season. In fact, they’ve averaged just 3.6 points per game in the first quarter. Jalen Hurts will return from dealing with his first ever concussion. He cleared protocol just a day ago, which could lead him to begin this game semi-cautiously. The Packers will miss deep-threat WR Christian Watson against this top-tier Eagles secondary. These teams should go ground-heavy to start this game behind elite RB’s Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs. I think that leads us to a 1H Under, with the game most likely heating up later in Q3 & Q4. This line at 23.5 is now available at -115 on DK.

It is no secret that Josh Allen likes to use his legs in big games. This Broncos defensive front got excellent pressure all season long, behind DT Zach Allen who ranked top 10 in total QB pressures (the first top-10 DT in that category since Aaron Donald in 2021). If Denver is collapsing the pocket with middle pressure, Allen will roll outside and take off. I even expect to see some designed runs. If Broncos top-tier CB’s Patrick Surtain & Riley Moss are blanketing Bills receivers, Allen will take matters into his own hands (legs?). Allen averages over 56 rush yards per game in the playoffs.

Cook finished the season tied for the lead league in rushing touchdowns (16) and finished with 18 total. He scored in 13/17 games this season. That’s 76.4% of the time. We are getting a Cook anytime TD price of -120, which has an implied probability of 54.55%. Denver only allowed 10 rushing touchdowns this year, but Buffalo’s offense ranked #2 in red zone efficiency, scoring a TD inside the 20 at a 71.64% clip. Cook will have his opportunities to cash in like he has all year. If the Bills are playing with the lead in a positive game script, I like this even more. When defenses load up the box against Josh Allen, Cook beats them to the edge.

Warren has been a reliable dual-threat back this season. He has seen 4+ targets in 6 of his past 8 games, and has cleared this receiving yards mark in 6 of his past 9. The Steelers offense struggled in the last month of the season. RB Najee Harris’ north-south run style has been inefficient lately, and Warren offers Pittsburgh a more dynamic look in the backfield. Look for Russell Wilson to check down to Warren when pressure comes, and find him in the flat on early downs. The Steelers will need to stay out of ‘3rd and long’, and utilizing Warren in the pass game could be key to that.

Oddsmakers are making a statement with this line. These division rivals will meet for a third time this season, after splitting the first two 1-1. But Baltimore handled Pittsburgh 34-17 just 3 weeks ago.The Steelers have overachieved all season, and the Ravens have been a secondary away from being elite. Defensive coordinator Zach Orr now has these defensive backs locked in, along with the league’s #1 rush defense. If the Steelers can’t find the deep ball, their run game will be stifled and they won’t be able to keep pace with this high-octane Ravens offense. Despite the well known trends and voodoo magic of “Mike Tomlin as a dog”, I’m still willing to lay the points. Ravens flock.

The Texans offense has been searching for answers for the past month. Since wide receivers Stefon Diggs & Tank Dell went down with injuries, Houston has looked pretty pedestrian. While I don’t think newly acquired veteran WR Diontae Johnson will magically solve their problems, I do think he could play a role in this game. Texans head coach Demeco Ryans had high praise for Johnson after his Week 18 debut. Although he only had 2 receptions for 12 yards on 4 targets, Ryans was happy with his integration and quick understanding of the offense. With limited options and in desperate need of a playmaker, I like C.J. Stroud to look Johnson’s way multiple times. One play can clear this line.

Grab this total now above the key number of 43 on Fanduel. The Texans offense struggled mightily down the stretch of the season, and the O-line’s pass protection and run blocking is regressing badly. Teams now feel safe to stack the box against RB Joe Mixon. Chargers elite Safety Derwin James can limit explosive plays to Houston’s best weapon, WR Nico Collins. The Chargers identity this season has resembled an old school football team under Jim Harbaugh. Their run game, possession control and stout defense match up well against Houston. Demeco Ryans should have his #2 DVOA ranked defense raring to go, understanding that Houston’s success likely falls to them at this point. I see this being a 20-17 type of grinding affair.

Minnesota’s defense ranks #3 in DVOA, mostly off the strength of their run defense. The Vikings allow the 2nd fewest rushing yards per game (88.1), and typically force teams to beat them through the air. Since Lions RB David Montgomery went down with an injury Gibbs has been the workhorse, clearing this rushing yards total in B2B games. However, his line seems inflated in this game considering the matchup. Gibbs has gone under this mark in 12/16 games this season. Lions OC Ben Johnson is likely to attack this Vikings secondary more than their top-tier run-stopping unit.