At the risk of recency bias, Houston possibly established itself as a team of destiny with the remarkable comeback against Duke . . .

Remove the team names from the jerseys, and this line would be smaller. Duke, drawing much wagering attention because of its blue blood legacy, might be better but not this much. Houston yields the fewest points per possession in Division I and operates slowly enough that their games average the seventh fewest possessions for both teams, which magnifies the spread. This is not your grandfather's Cougars; three players shoot 40-percent plus on threes. They are active and physical enough to keep Cooper Flagg in check. Goodness, their lone loss since Dec. 7 was a one-pointer in OT to a three seed in the NCAAs.

The teams sport similar straight-up records. Against the spread? Not so much. Florida stands 27-10, Auburn 21-16. The public has caught on to the Gators, properly establishing them as a narrow fave. They are on a scoring binge, able to score from afar and at the rim with their wave of effective bigs. Florida's size could limit Johni Broome's scoring, as might a sore elbow. Auburn is less inclined to score inside, and the cavernous dome could unduly impact outside shooting. The Tigers ruled the college nation for much of the season, but Florida is peaking at the proper time.

In rounds two through four of the NIT, underdogs are an astonishing 13-1 against the spread, plus 11-3 straight-up. Chattanooga has led the way by winning outright while receiving points in all four games. They’ve dropped one game dating back to Jan. 25. The Mocs have covered in two -thirds of their schedule. Irvine can flash similar numbers, though not quite as impressive, so let’s go with an amazing trend continuing at the finish line.

This spread has come up tiny in large part because of Chattanooga’s hot streak: 15-1 straight up and 13-3 against the spread in its last 16 games. However, the height-challenged Moccasins figure to struggle on offense against Loyola’s long-ish guards and 6-foot-10 post player Miles Rubin. At the other end, the Ramblers are accurate on 3-pointers while the Mocs defend behind-the-arc shots poorly. The Ramblers hail from the formidable Atlantic-10, which was much superior to the Mocs’ Southern Conference.

Two years after winning the NIT with Ross Hodge as associate head coach, he wraps up his stay as head coach at North Texas this week. Hodge chose to stick around after accepting the gig at West Virginia, a good sign for the Mean Green. Their defense is suffocating, which could spell trouble for fast-paced Irvine. The Anteaters advanced to the semis with all wins at home, so this marks their first NIT outing in unfamiliar confines. Their schedule was much softer than the Mean Green’s.

Both squads will tip off minus a key player. Georgetown’s absentee is its headliner, Thomas Souter, the Hoyas’ scoring and rebounding leader. G-Town closed the season with a single outright win in six games — a two-pointer over Villanova, which fired its coach. Wash State finished on a better note: on a three-game roll before falling to San Francisco, which landed an NIT berth. It plays up-tempo, an ideal style for this loosey-goosey tournament. The scheduled 11 p.m. (ET) start favors the west coast school over the one from D.C.

Defections are affecting several teams in this tournament, perhaps none more so than Arizona State. The Sun Devils are expected to take the floor without three of their top six scorers and could be down to seven scholarship players. They surely assumed the season was over with a defeat on March 11, their 11th in the past dozen outings. Nebraska also closed poorly with five straight-up setbacks in a row. But with a decent 18-15 SU record, in contrast to ASU’s pathetic 13-19, the Cornhuskers likely anticipated their season was not over.

Two defensive-oriented teams, neither of which shoot threes accurately, have collaborated on a slightly too-high total. George Washington yields 68 points per game, Boise State 66. The Revolutionaries operate at a moderate pace — yet quicker than the Broncos, whose games generated the 321st most possessions. Each squad is 15-18 on Overs this season. These off-Broadway tournaments tend to spit out higher-than-usual scores. This matchup shapes up as an exception, with a long layoff between games possibly impacting the shooting.

Each team is 4-1 on Unders since the regular season ended, so why stop now? Both sides perform at a reasonable, not outrageous, pace. Auburn's defense is the eighth most efficient in Division I, according to KenPom. Going farther back into Michigan State's schedule, the Spartans have gone Under in 14 of the past 17 outings. Coach Tom Izzo might prefer a grinding game and will try to muck it up with a patient offense and rugged defense.

This total is a hair below the sky-high one for Alabama-BYU. Makes no sense. The difference between these scenarios is, Duke plays dogged defense, unlike the Cougars. The Blue Devils rank fifth in KenPom for defensive efficiency. Their games on average contain the 274th most possessions in Division I, lower than nearly three-fourths of all teams. The Devils should not allow Mark Sears to go off as he did Thursday, and their tree-tall front line should keep the Crimson Tide from scoring much in the paint.

Tennessee boasts the third most efficient defense in Division I, according to KenPom. Its games average the 47th fewest possessions. The Volunteers will ramp up the D and exercise patience on offense in an effort to knock off high-flying Kentucky for the first time this season in three meetings. The second encounter ended with 139 points on the board. The Wildcats recently have displayed some defense, which was largely absent for much of the year. Whoever wins is unlikely to reach the mid-70s.

The Over has gone 6-1 at the shooter-friendly gym for the CBI. The exception was FGCU’s 68-65 win over Army, which landed 20 points south of the total. Look for the Eagles to resume their scoring pace from late in the regular season, whey they closed with three games in the 80s themselves. Cleveland State contributed to the tournament’s Over trend with a 161-point outing Monday. The Vikings average 73 ppg this season. In a seemingly defense-optional event, hitting that number here all but assures an Over. 

Spotting an underdog this many points can be dicey in these quirky tournaments where motivation is difficult to gauge. Illinois State holds a fitness advantage, as UIW and its short rotation engages in its third game in three days. Two starters played every minute Sunday and Monday, while the three others averaged in the low-to-mid 30s. The favored Redbirds shed two weeks of rust with a so-so win Monday as none of its regulars logged enough time to be spent. They pulled away with a 45-point outburst in the second half. It is difficult to back a team like the Cardinals with a negative points differential this season.

Queens busted loose Sunday in its CBI opener for 85 points, winning by seven to improve to 5-1 ATS in its last half-dozen games. The Royals mixed in eight players, with just one working at least 30 minutes, so they should not be subjected to tired legs, especially with no travel involved in the tournament. Cleveland State last played two weeks ago and could be at a disadvantage in the early going. The Vikings dropped five of their last eight straight-up. Their offensive efficiency ranking by KenPom is 222nd. Queens need not score 85 again for a cover.