After a blazing start, Kentucky has hit a rut . . .

The Chiefs' favoritism seems based on the belief that they will draw on their experience in recent playoff excellence to beat Buffalo. Most of the evidence suggest that this K.C. team is inferior to the past two. Eleven of 15 wins this season were secured by one score, and a few appeared a product of luck. It outgained opponents by a paltry eight yards per game. The Bills were much better at running the ball, which is paramount in freezing weather. They stand 12-7 ATS, with the highlight a nine-point win over the Chiefs. As magical as QB Patrick Mahomes can be, Josh Allen is a worthy peer. The Bills have the better team and are receiving points. 'Nuff said.

Jayden Daniels has hurdled this number in five consecutive games, albeit one in overtime. Philly held him to 191 in their first meeting, but the ridiculously gifted rookie slapped the Eagles around with 258 in the sequel. He has attempted 30-plus passes in his last 10 games, not counting the one in which he made a cameo appearance. There is no reason to think the 'Dores will become ground-oriented here. This total is a few yards lower than what other sportsbooks have posted.

Illinois at times resembles a Final Four team. At other times, a Sweet Sixteen team -- in the NIT. The Illini looked like the latter in their latest game, getting overrun by Maryland. Seven-footer Tomislav Ivisic was shelved for it and is sidelined again with an illness. While his 13 ppg will be missed, the greater concern is a repeat of what the Terrapins bigs did -- 52 points, 23 rebounds. Illinois has dropped three of four straight-up. Some seven weeks ago, they fell to these Wildcats in overtime. Good Illini can cover, but they have been mediocre Illini all too often.

Coach Mick Cronin has griped about the long commutes to road games resulting from UCLA joining the far-flung Big Ten. The Bruins have dropped three straight away from home, with none of the margins close. They get a somewhat shorter journey here to face a team with five consecutive straight-up losses. The Huskies have legitimate hopes for an upset. Big man Franck Kepning could return after sitting out 17 games with an injury, while hot-and-cold scorer D.J. Davis is distancing himself from an ankle ailment that has impeded his play. A Friday nighter in the Pacific Northwest against a visitor struggling away from home shapes up as a recipe for a tight finish.

Since coach Jim Larranaga bailed on his team on Boxing Day, Miami has gone 0-6 outright, with the results growing increasingly dire. In their last two losses (to Duke and SMU), the Hurricanes were outscored by 45 and 43 points. The "reward" is an 11 p.m. (ET) tip-off in their first ACC west coast venture. Stanford is 9-1 straight-up at home and is riding high from an upset at N.C. State on Saturday. The Cardinal are no bully but can kick UM when it's down for a double-digit win.

Winless in the SEC under first-year coach John Calipari, Arkansas might stay that way for awhile. Freshman sensation Boogie Fland (15.1 ppg, 5.7 apg, 3.4 rpg) has been scratched for the season. The Razorbacks will be hard-pressed to contain Georgia's own frosh star, big man Asa Newell. With Fland, Arkansas owns a +4 points differential per game, while the Bulldogs' is at +9. UGA is 0-2 straight-up on the road in the league, but its conquerors were ranked Ole Miss and Tennessee. The 'Backs are miles away from the top 25.

Home-field advantage around the league has been diminished, but how can we discount the Bills’ excellence in Buffalo? They are 9-0 this season, with four margins in the 20s and another in the 30s. Yet they are on the receiving end here. One factor in Baltimore’s favoritism is its 35-10 spanking of Buffalo in Week Four when RB Derrick Henry ran wild. Two key Bills LBs who sat out are back, and Buffalo’s defense yielded the 12th fewest yards per game in the regular season despite Baltimore’s banner day. Ravens WR Zay Flowers, who bypassed the wild-card game with an injury, is unlikely to return. While both teams breezed to first-round wins, Buffalo’s came against the rising Broncos whereas Baltimore’s occurred against the sinking Steelers.

The Rams have ridden their defense to the second round of the playoffs. In the past four games that involved the starters, L.A. has allowed a total of 33 points, with no foe reaching double figures. The Eagles' defense has been dominant all season. It has no peer in the total and pass defense categories. No team runs the ball as much as Philly, which often leads to games with fewer-than-usual snaps. This number is right in the middle of the standard totals window, and it seems high with teams whose defenses stand a cut above the offenses.

Kansas City has played 18 postseason games with Patrick Mahomes at QB. In half of those, the Chiefs scored in the 30s (six times), 40s (twice) and 50s (once). Two more resulted in the high 20s, two additional in the mid-20s. As spotty as the offense has been this season, playoff-time K.C. customarily has little trouble scoring. Houston must contribute to an Over. With TB Joe Mixon likely to play after being iffy all week, the Texans are capable of doing their part. K Ka'imi Fairbairn can pitch in; his 39 field goals were fourth most in the regular season.

This spread suggests that UCLA will suddenly find a cure for the ills that have led to a four-game losing streak in which no outcome was close. (The margins: eight, 19, 18 and seven.) Coach Mick Cronin continues to criticize his players, a ploy that has worked before but has shown no signs of moving the needle lately. Iowa has not fared well in limited road games, yet scoring is no issue. The Hawkeyes average 89.5 ppg, tied for most in the nation. The Bruins, 15th in the Big Ten offensively, might not have the shooters to keep up even as the defense has been solid. No team mired in an extended slump should be yielding this many points in a league matchup.

To begin its first long-distance trip as a Big 12 member, UCF hung tough Saturday at Arizona before bowing. Though the Knights may have gotten acclimated out west, a late-night tip in the desert could be problematic. Comparative scores often are inconclusive, but the Sun Devils’ blowout win over Colorado contrasts with UCF’s one-point decision over the Buffaloes. While off nights occur for any team, it is not easy to write off UCF’s recent defeat to Kansas by 51 — 51! — points. The Knights have logged just two true away games and might still be adjusting to life on the road.

The absence of Auburn’s injured Johni Broome, a frontrunner for national player of the year, will be felt more on rebounds than scoring. The Tigers can replace much of his 18 points per game but will be pressed to match his 11 rebounds per. Mississippi State is 3-0 straight-up in true roadies and has the statistical evidence to cope with a rowdy Tigers crowd: tied for sixth nationally in fewest turnovers and tied for fifth in steals per game. Auburn last covered against the Bulldogs four meetings ago. The scratch of Broome dropped the line a few points at some sportsbooks, but it remains sizable enough to offer appeal to the underdog ‘Dogs.

With ailing Wade Taylor out, the Aggies are left with just one double-figure scorer, Zhuric Phelps. That likely gives Kentucky coaches an easy call. Lamont Butler, a lock-down defender, should be assigned to him. A&M will especially miss Taylor given how he has excelled against the Wildcats. Kentucky scores in the high 80s, about a dozen points more per game than the Aggies do, so the visitors will need production from players unaccustomed to filling the hoop. A&M has ventured out for only two road games, and it is no small feat to be competitive at Rupp Arena.

Sunday’s first game offered a reminder of the challenges facing rookie quarterbacks in road playoff games. Those teams fell to 5-18 straight-up with Denver’s loss at Buffalo as Bo Nix was average after the Broncos’ initial possession. Although Jayden Daniels is no typical first-year QB, the numbers don’t lie. For the Commanders, the bigger concern is their defense. It ranks 30th against the run, and Tampa Bay RB Bucky Irving and the rest of the ground attack are on a tear. It also has been sketchy against elite receivers, and there are few better than Mike Evans. Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield is 2-1 outright in the postseason, which inspires confidence against the untested Daniels.