This total is a hair below the sky-high one for Alabama-BYU. Makes no sense. The difference between these scenarios is, Duke plays dogged defense, unlike the Cougars. The Blue Devils rank fifth in KenPom for defensive efficiency. Their games on average contain the 274th most possessions in Division I, lower than nearly three-fourths of all teams. The Devils should not allow Mark Sears to go off as he did Thursday, and their tree-tall front line should keep the Crimson Tide from scoring much in the paint.

Tennessee boasts the third most efficient defense in Division I, according to KenPom. Its games average the 47th fewest possessions. The Volunteers will ramp up the D and exercise patience on offense in an effort to knock off high-flying Kentucky for the first time this season in three meetings. The second encounter ended with 139 points on the board. The Wildcats recently have displayed some defense, which was largely absent for much of the year. Whoever wins is unlikely to reach the mid-70s.

The Over has gone 6-1 at the shooter-friendly gym for the CBI. The exception was FGCU’s 68-65 win over Army, which landed 20 points south of the total. Look for the Eagles to resume their scoring pace from late in the regular season, whey they closed with three games in the 80s themselves. Cleveland State contributed to the tournament’s Over trend with a 161-point outing Monday. The Vikings average 73 ppg this season. In a seemingly defense-optional event, hitting that number here all but assures an Over. 

Spotting an underdog this many points can be dicey in these quirky tournaments where motivation is difficult to gauge. Illinois State holds a fitness advantage, as UIW and its short rotation engages in its third game in three days. Two starters played every minute Sunday and Monday, while the three others averaged in the low-to-mid 30s. The favored Redbirds shed two weeks of rust with a so-so win Monday as none of its regulars logged enough time to be spent. They pulled away with a 45-point outburst in the second half. It is difficult to back a team like the Cardinals with a negative points differential this season.

Queens busted loose Sunday in its CBI opener for 85 points, winning by seven to improve to 5-1 ATS in its last half-dozen games. The Royals mixed in eight players, with just one working at least 30 minutes, so they should not be subjected to tired legs, especially with no travel involved in the tournament. Cleveland State last played two weeks ago and could be at a disadvantage in the early going. The Vikings dropped five of their last eight straight-up. Their offensive efficiency ranking by KenPom is 222nd. Queens need not score 85 again for a cover.

Army played Sunday. FGCU has not played in forever (March 3). In fact, the Eagles have squeezed in one game into the last four weeks. The Black Knights broke out of a slump by beating Elon on Sunday. Better yet, minutes were distributed among nine players who saw decent action, so fatigue should be no concern. No travel is involved, with the CBI unfolding in one gym. The Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last seven outings. Though the better team, they spot Army too many points here.

Teams in the first round of the CBI on Sunday had no trouble finding the range with a four-game sweep of the Over. Bettors seeking action on Monday’s opener might steer away from an ATS or ML pick, given that three Incarnate Word starters logged heavy minutes and Jacksonville is shaking off 18 days of rust from its last outing. Though the Cardinals play at a languid pace, their games average 143 points, same as the Dolphins’. IUW’s win Sunday came with 177 points, soaring over the betting total of 144.

Draw a line through its league tournament finals against slow-mo San Diego State, and UC Irvine has scored in the 80s or 90s four games in a row. The Anteaters’ NIT opener wound up with 154 points. They operate at a quick pace, with possessions per outing averaging 87th in Division I. For Jacksonville State’s part, its 81 points in the initial NIT test hints that this total is easily reachable. Defense tends to take a backseat in this tournament, as the Overs’ 14-5 record through Saturday suggests.

Kent State is on a scoring heater. Its prior 10 games averaged 154 points. The Golden Flashes’ shooters are doing their part. They have scored in the 70s in six consecutive outings.The three previous efforts, they landed twice in the 90s and once in triple digits. Stanford operates at a modest pace but is capable of big numbers. The Cardinal notched 87 points in their NIT opener, with the game generating 157. Overs have gone 13-5 in the NIT through Saturday, and the trend should continue here.

These teams are two sides of the same coin. Each allows 65.2 ppg. Each is 13-18 on Overs. Their pace of play is almost identical. UCLA ranks 310th in possessions per game, four spots ahead of Tennessee. Their coaches are maniacal with defense. If both teams keep the opponent below their norm, even by a fraction, the Under will score.

Georgia Mason averages 71.3 points per game, Bradley is even better at 76.6. While both defenses are formidable, simple math suggests they should not be able to keep each other in the 60s. The Braves stand 17-13 on Overs and have hit or exceeded the 70 mark in all but one of their last seven outings. Mason remains sub-.500 but has gone over four in a row. The Patriots’ NIT opener produced a whopping 155. As a rule, postseason tournaments not named NCAA shouldn’t carry such modest totals.

A two-time defending national champ versus a team that won a third of its league games: That's the reasoning behind this healthy line. It's too large. UConn has rarely shown a resemblance this season to its immediate predecessors. The least flattering of the Huskies' stats is a 291st ranking in turnover percentage. Oklahoma's offense -- 22nd best in D-!, according to KenPom analytics -- is superior. The Sooners play at full speed and can capitalize from UConn's shaky three-point defense. Oklahoma's lousy SEC record is softened somewhat by its ability to play close. The past there defeats came by a combined five points.

When Troy stepped up to play teams from the Power Four leagues, its normally potent offense fizzled. The Trojans tallied 42 versus Houston, 49 against Arkansas and 61 versus Oregon. (Two of those matchups produced 114 and 102 points from both sides.) Granted, those results date to 2024, but they offer evidence that this score might stay south of 150. All told, Troy's games average 257 possessions, well below the median in Division I. Look for the Trojans to ease off the pedal to slow run-and-gun Kentucky.

The NCAAs already has toasted a 12th seed winner (McNeese State), so why not another? Memphis' giddy-up offense will be crippled if its two ailing PGs, Tyrese Hunter and Dante Harris, are stuck on the bench. Hunter, for one, says he will sit out. Without factoring in the injuries, KenPom.com ranks Colorado State five slots ahead of the Tigers, owing to its No. 50 rating for offensive efficiency and No. 52 for defense. The Rams have swept their last 10 games outright, largely on the strength of lights-out three-point shooting. It is rare for a 12 seed to be giving (points) rather than receiving. In this case, it is justified.