Mike's Picks (4 Live)
The absence of Auburn’s injured Johni Broome, a frontrunner for national player of the year, will be felt more on rebounds than scoring . . .
To begin its first long-distance trip as a Big 12 member, UCF hung tough Saturday at Arizona before bowing . .
Mike's Past Picks
Sunday’s first game offered a reminder of the challenges facing rookie quarterbacks in road playoff games. Those teams fell to 5-18 straight-up with Denver’s loss at Buffalo as Bo Nix was average after the Broncos’ initial possession. Although Jayden Daniels is no typical first-year QB, the numbers don’t lie. For the Commanders, the bigger concern is their defense. It ranks 30th against the run, and Tampa Bay RB Bucky Irving and the rest of the ground attack are on a tear. It also has been sketchy against elite receivers, and there are few better than Mike Evans. Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield is 2-1 outright in the postseason, which inspires confidence against the untested Daniels.
Though Baltimore routed them a few weeks ago, the Steelers took the first round this season and have won eight of the last 10 meetings outright. Pittsburgh is mired in a four-game losing streak, but its conquerors are an impressive lot — Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs, Bengals. The belief here is that coach Mike Tomlin can dig them out of the slump, draw on his successful game-planning against Lamar Jackson and deliver a competitive game. Pittsburgh is 10-2 straight-up in the last dozen playoff games versus division foes, a testament to its preparation for a third face-off in the same season. The spread for the latest matchup was just 7.5, so this figure represents a leap, especially if standout Ravens WR Zay Flowers is out.
The superior team in this matchup is indisputable. Los Angeles enters with a +101 points differential, which is 101 better than Houston’s. The Chargers yielded a league-low 301 points. Its offense is on fire, having averaged 36 ppg over the past three weeks. ATS? L.A. is 12-5, Houston around .500. The visitors have won three in a row and five of six outright. The Texans dropped their last two games that mattered, scoring a combined 21 points. Weather is no factor for the visitors from SoCal, with the stadium enclosed if necessary. Home-field advantage is negligible this season, with away teams winning at a 47 percent clip. This is L.A.’s third consecutive road game. However, last Sunday’s involved a quick hop to nearby Las Vegas.
Duel-threat QBs tend to thrive against defenses that do not excel against the rush and the pass. Penn State’s is superb at stopping the run, which could force so-so thrower Riley Leonard to challenge an above-average pass defense more than he would prefer. The Fighting Irish were afforded two fewer days than Penn Stare for R&R and prep time. Notre Dame’s main statistical concern is a low conversion rate in the red zone, an area in which the Nittany Lions are super-strong. Notre Dame is dealing with a flu outbreak. While most of the affected players reportedly are not starters, its depth could be compromised.
The final regular season game is poised to carry the highest total. That alone makes it a near-automatic Under play, particularly when one team (Minnesota) holds the fourth fewest points per game figure at 18.8. The first meeting did end with 60 points on the board, but the scoring included a rare scoop-and-score. A game with significant stakes often results in some cautious play-calling and heightened emphasis on defense. Though both coaches are disinclined to tighten the reins, at least some clock-burning is likely late if one side leads by two-plus scores.
If QB Tua Tagovailoa is cleared to go after he sat out Sunday with an injury, this line is shooting up. Miami remains in the playoff chase, though it is counting on an unlikely Denver loss to Kansas City to stay eligible. The games will be played concurrently, so the Dolphins will take the field bent on winning since the Broncos' outcome won't be immediately clear. Even if backup Tyler Huntley takes the snaps, Miami should be fine. Huntley completed 22 of 26 passes against Cleveland on Sunday. Most of all, the Jets appear demoralized, having been hammered by Buffalo, and this is likely QB Aaron Rodgers' swan song in New York.
Rams coach Sean McVay was not kidding that he did not care about winning this game by declaring early this week that QB Matthew Stafford would be held out. Never mind that a win would give the NFC West champions a more favorable matchup in the playoffs. The Rams have also announced their intention to sit WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, along with RB Kyren Williams and two starting O-linemen. QB Geno Smith will not be lacking in incentive. He can secure up to $6 million in bonuses with a strong performance. The ‘Hawks can close out a stellar straight-up road record of 7-1, and the task just got easier with the opponent’s stated approach.
The Chargers had to wait until Saturday for an extra jolt of motivation. With Pittsburgh stumbling against Cincinnati, a victory over the Raiders would lock up the fifth seed and a desirable wild-card matchup versus the Texans, who scare nobody. All season long, the Chargers have taken care of lesser foes. They have won seven of their last 10 outright, with losses to Baltimore, Kansas City and Tampa Bay. The Raiders have perked up, winning their last two games. Still, Las Vegas can claim only one victory all year against a foe with a plus-.500 record. This spread expectedly jumped after the Bengals-Steelers outcome but remains reasonable for Chargers backers.
Four seasons ago, Kansas City had locked up the No. 1 seed in the AFC West when it played host to Las Vegas. Patrick Mahomes and fellow Chiefs standouts stayed on the sideline and watched the Raiders' 38-21 win. A similar scenario applies here. The difference is, while the Raiders had been eliminated, Denver must win to reach the playoffs. The Broncos will go all-out, seeking to build an insurmountable lead -- especially after frittering away Saturday's game at Cincinnati. The 8.5-point spot might sound steep, but Denver should come out gangbusters against an assortment of K.C. backups.
The 49ers have endured an epidemic of injuries, capped by QB Brock Purdy's bum elbow suffered on Monday night that ends his season. The defense was lacerated by Detroit, and the offense is missing a roll call of contributors. San Fran is staggering to the finish line in a short week. The Cardinals have been up-and-down -- mostly down in recent weeks -- but should be motivated to complete a season sweep of a division foe that historically dominates them. 'Zona scored a one-point win in the Bay Area in Week Six.
New Orleans' last five games have resulted in 35, 25, 39, 34 and 35 points. Most of the blame falls on the team’s offense, which has been putrid. With the usual list of injured suspects sitting out, there's no reason to think it will find relief. The concern is Tampa Bay’s imposing offense and the need to win for a division title. Given a clear superiority in this matchup, the Buccaneers could - and should - lean on their rushing attack, shorten the game and coast home to preserve their players for a wild-card contest next weekend.