After being on Ohio State all week, Texas started looking favorable when it appeared the line was shifting to 7. Alas, it did not. This call is ultimately about Jim Knowles. The Buckeyes defensive coordinator is arguably the best in the business as evidenced by his crew demoralizing Oregon and completely erasing its run game. The Longhorns have been explosive but inconsistent offensively, and I worry about Quinn Ewers facing a regular pass rush knocking him off his spot. This line is indeed inflated given overreaction to OSU's quarterfinal effort (should probably be -4 or -4.5), but 5.5 is in the dead zone, and I like Ohio State to win by a touchdown behind its explosive playmakers and swarming defense.

Penn State has been underrated all season, and this game is a legitimate toss-up. Planned to take Notre Dame as a favorite, but the line flipped amid a flu that ran through the Fighting Irish locker room. Still, its defense is on fire holding playoff opponents to 13.5 ppg. Penn State was similarly successful (12.0 ppg), but Boise State gained 412 yards (304 passing) only for turnovers (4!) to ruin their day. Georgia, despite the loss of Carson Beck, was a much tougher matchup given its play up front. Both teams are banged up. Biggest concern is Jeremiyah Love, who is active but wearing a brace. Then again, Drew Allar struggled against Boise (despite the margin). What is he going to do against Notre Dame?

Locking in the Lions now with the last of the -2.5s available, a number you absolutely want if you're siding with Detroit on Sunday night. The Lions are banged up and need a bye more than any team in the NFL. The implications of this game are massive, and I'm backing Dan Campbell's crew. Will update this pick Sunday afternoon.

Locked in the Chargers with the Bengals having the game in hand, which presents an opportunity for Los Angeles to earn the No. 5 seed with a win Sunday. The spread has since increased, understandably, and I remain comfortable with L.A. at -6.5 or better. There's also a tremendous teaser opportunity with your choice of late-game underdogs. Aidan O'Connell is a legit QB capable of actually moving the ball and scoring, but the Chargers defense and Justin Herbert should be gassed up for this opportunity. One of few games this week where result matters significantly for a team entering the playoffs.

DeMeco Ryans claims the Texans will play their starters against the Titans despite having their playoff spot locked up. I’m willing to believe him … to a point. Houston has lost three straight falling 31-2 last week as the offense fell off a cliff without Tank Dell. As we saw with the Steelers, the Texans need a get-right game going into the playoffs. This is a perfect spot against the Titans, which registered their only win since Nov. 3 over Houston. The Texans should be motivated to start, and they know a playoff run is unlikely given their limitations. Slim pickings this week, so let's take a risk that Ryans plays his starters more than a quarter. If that’s the case, this should pay.

There’s a misunderstanding that the Ravens win makes this unimportant for the Steelers; playing at Baltimore or at Houston are drastically different playoff paths. Pittsburgh won by a TD back on Dec. 1 with Russell Wilson tearing apart Cincinnati’s awful defense, but it’s lost three straight with Russ looking rough since. Dropping four in a row entering the postseason is anti-momentum. No wonder Mike Tomlin is playing his guys. Why back the Bengals? Not having Chase Brown gave major pause; he unlocked the potential of Cincinnati’s offense. But there are zero questions about the Bengals’ motivation, the defense may be making moderate improvements, and Joe Burrow is carving up opponents weekly. Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS as road favorites this season with four straight covers overall.

Georgia has the pedigree when it comes to the College Football Playoff, and Kirby Smart's experience -- plus the game's location -- should help plenty in this matchup. However, I had zero belief in this team with Carson Beck and have even less with him not playing. Notre Dame rebounded from a rough start to play dominant, unwavering football down the stretch, and Riley Leonard should give the Fighting Irish a huge edge at QB. Plus, Jereiyah Love can match whatever UGA runs at ND and the Irish red zone defense is stout.

The 2024-25 national champion may come out of this with Oregon looking to continue its undefeated season and Ohio State seeking payback from what should've been (but wasn't) the only team to beat it. Momentum is with the Buckeyes, which dominated Tennessee, but we have seen them ebb and flow all season. Jim Knowles is a defensive mastermind, but Dan Lanning’s unit is underrated – plus Oregon’s been preparing for weeks, and it’s more than just a flashy offense. The Ducks have the better quarterback (Will Howard 5 TD, 4 INT in last three games) and the better kicking game in a tight battle. Expected this to hit +3, the key number I want and will buy at -120. Another option: play the live line.

Significant step up Arizona State, which will rely on Cam Skattebo against one of the nation's best run-stopping units. Like in Penn State's games, there's a talent gulf here. Kenny Dillingham is great, but even with extra prep, its tough to see the Sun Devils having consistent success. Quinn Ewers has been perhaps the most heavily criticized player in these playoffs, but he has a chance to write his wrongs against a beatable secondary with Isaiah Bond back as a primary pass catcher. ASU ranked near last in the FBS at rushing the passer, and UT has the talent to hit one explosive play after another. The Longhorns just beat a far better passing team by 14 and have won 11 games by double digits.

Ashton Jeanty should have been the Heisman Trophy winner. Ashton Jeanty will be the best player in this game. Unfortunately, Boise State is not made entirely of Ashton Jeantys. As great as the Broncos have played, they are nowhere near as deep as Penn State, entering the quarterfinals healthy despite having already played a CFP game. The Nittany Lions have an edge up front; if they can control the line of scrimmage, they can take the ball out of Jeanty’s hands. Should have locked in at -9.5 or -10 on Penn State, which is the right line for this game, but it’s still a play up to -11. This will be close in the first half but open up significantly coming out of the break.

Might the 49ers win this game? Sure. It’s at home and they are a talented team with a good coach. There’s just not a scenario where picking against the Lions in this spot makes much sense. San Francisco is out of the playoffs, and Detroit has a No. 1 seed in its sights. Brock Purdy has thrown for less than 160 yards in three of the last five weeks (all losses), and he will now be operating behind an offensive line missing more key players. Jared Goff has thrown 17 TD to one INT over the last six weeks with Detroit's only loss coming to Buffalo. The Lions are injured defensively, but the Niners have given up 29+ points over four of five weeks.

Momentum for the Falcons behind Michael Penix Jr. is understandable, especially given how he opens up the running game for Bijan Robinson against a Commanders unit that has struggled all season up front. Washington’s elite offense should not be discounted, though, especially against a struggling Atlanta D. The only defenses that have limited Jayden Daniels this season have been among the best in the league, and a couple wins over the Raiders and Giants don’t make the Falcons one of those. Plus, Atlanta has nearly zero pass rush while Penix is making his first road start against a Dan Quinn defense outdoors.

There was some pause here with Christian Watson being listed as inactive given his field-stretching ability opens a ton underneath for Jordan Love and the Packers, but this is nevertheless the right spot to pick Green Bay over Minnesota. The Pack are 0-4 against the best teams they faced this season, but they have been rolling on both sides of the ball recently. Love has cut down on his turnovers, and the defense has locked down overall despite the continued absence of Jaire Alexander. The Vikings have been tremendous, but they haven’t faced a team of quality since late October. Minnesota would have lost the first meeting if not for all of Love’s questionable throws (and two missed field goals).

The 1 p.m. window is dreadful, and this is the only spot that seems to offer any value. The Colts are running their entire offense through Jonathan Taylor, which takes a lot of pressure off Joe Flacco. While his play as a backup this season has been criticized, he’s still moved the ball well, and this might be the last game of his entire career. Indianapolis has more weapons, more talent and more at stake. The Giants are dreadful and 1-9 ATS since Oct. 6. With this line hitting -7, it’s worth a play as New York has lost four of five games by that number. I will also have the Colts as a teaser with the Eagles in this window.