Bateman's been hyped all offseason by the coaching staff and the team and he's going to take advantage with a strong game here. This is kind of mispriced honestly and I think he could go as high as 50 in this game fairly easily with how KC will pivot their defense. #BatemanSZN in full effect

The Chiefs are set to kick off their b2b title defense on Thursday night and while recent history says the defending champs won't handle their biz, I think this rendition of the Chiefs is set to prove that wrong with a heavy offense attack that hits at all levels and makes the Ravens one dimensional (see: their playoff game) and KC walking away with more than three point win.

What a game to start 2024! There has rightly been lots of love for the Ravens given the addition of Derrick Henry, the return of Mark Andrews, Lamar Jackson’s health and Baltimore’s vaunted defense. Some forget the Chiefs have made upgrades, too, boasting a full slate of receivers that should make Patrick Mahomes even more dangerous. (They also have a stellar D.) There is home field and Andy Reid’s incredible record with extra preparation to consider. My hesitation is KC’s propensity for starting slow, including a loss at Baltimore in their last regular-season meeting. Mahomes is 2-0 against the Ravens in Arrowhead Stadium, 4-1 overall with each win by 3+ points. With the spread ticking down under the key number, it’s time to play KC.

My hunch here is that because of the way teams practice in the preseason, the offenses will be further along than the defenses early in the season. Plus, you know, there are two pretty good QBs in this game, and that doesn't hurt, either.

Rice should see a heavy dose of targets on Thursday night, and with Hollywood Brown unavailable, that number could be even higher. Rice is one of my top plays on the DFS side, and I expect him to go over this number comfortably.

At some point age will catch up to Kelce, but I don't think it will be this year. Without Hollywood Brown in the lineup I expect 10+ targets for Kelce on Thursday. I have him projected to finish with 65+ yards against Baltimore.

Flowers is an explosive outside threat, who should be among the biggest benefactors of Derrick Henry and Mark Andrews being present in Baltimore's offense. I have Flowers projected for 60+ yards in my DFS projections.

Baltimore's once overcrowded backfield has now been reduced amid the departures of Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins to the Chargers, while Keaton Mitchell remains injured. Although Derrick Henry is on board for the RB1 role, look for Hill to see plenty of action. Coach John Harbaugh has consistently praised Hill throughout the preseason and promised a significant role for the versatile RB. Look for Hill to get carries as a change-of-pace option and he should be on the field for obvious passing downs. Hill should clip this modest combined production number.

The skinny Lamar era is back. Lamar Jackson has returned to more of his 2019 stature this season, which allowed him to be more mobile. He averaged 7 YPC in that 2019 season, compared to just under 5.5 yards this past season. Expect the Ravens to stick to the run this time around, especially with a young offensive line getting settled. The Sportsline model makes the number 56.

Throughout Lamar Jackson’s career as quarterback in the NFL, he has had one weapon that has stayed as a Baltimore Raven. That is Mark Andrews, who off a injury prone season may be overlooked going into week one. Yet, he caught 74 percent of his targets last season averaging 54 yards per game. Look for new tailback in Derrick Henry plus Lamar Jackson’s rushing abilities to open up the middle for the passing game. Go over on Andrews.

This total is set three points higher than last year’s AFC Championship game. Lamar Jackson attempted to exploit the Chiefs pass defense in the AFC Championship, but didn't have much luck. Baltimore added Derrick Henry this offseason, so you can expect a heavy dose of him tonight. The Chiefs still have Steve Spagnuolo on the defensive side to contain the Baltimore offense and there could be some Super Bowl rust for the Chiefs. The public is also heavily on the over tonight.

I would buy this up to +3.5 at -140 or better, depending on where you shop around. Lamar Jackson is an outrageous 12-1-1 ATS & 10-4 SU as an underdog in the regular season. Ravens head coach John Harbaugh is 25-15 ATS when playing as an underdog of +3 or greater. The Ravens should be involved in another tight one with the Chiefs, following last season's AFC Championship game battle. I see this game being decided by a field goal, so I'll take the +3/+3.5 on the road dogs. I expect the Ravens to give the defending champs a great test in the season-opener.

Just a lean here playing at 0.1u blindly following my sims here which have Mahomes at 35 passing attempts in this game.

I'm not interested in betting against Mahomes in the 4th quarter and I get a Ravens team that was excellent in first halves last year and who have added a new weapon in King Henry. The Chiefs may need some time to get going with a couple of changes across the secondary and some pre-season injuries at the skill position (Marquis Brown). I see this as a close contest in the first half with the Ravens having an excellent shot at having the upper hand.

This total opened at 47 and with more than 80% of the betting public on the Over, it hasn't budged. These were both top-ten ranked defenses last season. Both Baltimore and Kansas City were forced to mix up their offensive lines, which could lead to some confusion and added pressure to start the year. Baltimore should look to keep possession and go run-heavy with newly added RB Derrick Henry, after failing to do so against the Chiefs in last year's playoff matchup. Since 2019, Unders in primetime games are hitting at a 59.5% rate, and are 79-48 to the Under over the past two seasons. Play Under 47 at this key number.

Last season, at least, there were some highly-leveraged angles pointing to the "under" in this matchup, trends that manifest in a low-scoring AFC title game at M&T Bank Stadium that the Chiefs won by a nervy 17-10 count. That followed the season-long KC pattern to the "under" (14-7), especially at Arrowhead, where KC landed that way on eight of nine occasions. Including another Thursday opener vs. the potent Lions that landed only on 41. Tonight, Lamar Jackson takes his first snaps of the summer after sitting out the preseason, and will find an OL with three new starters, suggesting a possible adjustment phase for the Ravens offense in the early going. Play Ravens-Chiefs "Under"

Travis Kelce didn’t play in last year’s Thursday night opener, but well Kelsey is getting a little disrespected he was over 5 1/2 catches in every game he played at arrowhead last year except one…..and in that one he had 5. Mahomes trusts him.

Lamar Jackson had at least 32 pass attempts only six times last year including playoffs and has topped 31.5 once in four career regular-season games vs. Kansas City. I'd have to think Derrick Henry's addition means fewer pass attempts in most games for L-Jax. He's also operating under an overhauled O-Line so might be under serious pressure at times Thursday and run perhaps more than he normally would with Henry now on board. The model has Jackson with 27 pass attempts. There's always the injury/blowout factor, although I hope neither happens purely as a football fan.

Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice are going to draw most of the targets, and Xavier Worthy should get a couple deep throws at least. But veteran wideout Justin Watson could have an important role as well, with Hollywood Brown (shoulder) not suiting up. Watson can go Over this prop in one catch. He averaged 17 yards per reception last season and went Over this number in seven of his last eight games (not counting the meaningless Week 18 game).

With the way the Ravens can both run the ball and pressure on defense, it makes games closer by default. Add in the fact that all offseason they've heard about not running the ball in the AFC Championship Game and best believe they'll introduce KC to King Henry early and often in this matchup. Ravens tend to start the season fast, while the Chiefs tend to slowly walk out of the gate.

Patrick Queen made 133 tackles last season playing alongside Roquan Smith. Now Queen is in Pittsburgh, and second-year Clemson product Trenton Simpson takes over. The 6-2, 235-pounder drew raves all offseason and preseason; he's ready. He made 11 tackles in three quarters of a preseason game. And in 26 snaps in Week 18 last season, Simpson racked up seven tackles vs. Pittsburgh. He can get stops against the run, covering tight ends and running backs, and even rushing the passer. He ranges all over the field. Look for Simpson to deliver immediately and register at least seven combined tackles.

Shop this line as 51.5 (-110) is currently available. I have Zay Flowers' median projection at 63 yards in this matchup with the Chiefs. Flowers showed real upside down the stretch for Baltimore, recording 115 yards in the AFC title game, where the team scored just 10 points. He also recorded 106 yards against Miami and 72 yards against San Francisco. Flowers played a key role in the AFC title game, though he lost a big fumble, which likely motivates him further for this matchup without L'Jarius Sneed on the field for Kansas City.

The Ravens went and got King Henry after blowing another playoff game - to KC, no less - by not running the ball enough. With their defense in transition (needing a ball control assist), and a very shaky offensive line, it's hard to fathom a scenario where Henry doesn't get every opportunity to run plenty here, and do so out of heavy personnel. He doesn't have to be a sledgehammer every week, but in this match-up that has to be the approach. As long as they keep the game within reach Henry will be active (bet he catches 3 balls, also).

To get to 24 you need to get 3 TDs AND a FG or 2 TDs and FOUR FGs. With a run heavy Baltimore attack and two good Ds….under early

The Chiefs are a bit of an enigma. They were 15th in scoring last year. They also lost week 1 in this spot. Ravens have (slight) revenge angle and this is a regular season game. Plus DHenry has been a beast v ARied. Take the points

Chiefs have won six straight and covered six straight including the last three being underdogs. They're World Champions. So why would I suggest the Ravens are going to stop the beatings? The Ravens have lost four of their last five against the Chiefs. But they have Derrick Henry at running back this year and they've got Lamar Jackson in a regular season game, not the playoffs. He's electrifying and dynamite weekly when it's not the playoffs. He's got a great receiving crew that's young and can make plays on their own against a Chiefs secondary that is young with no L’Jarius Sneed. Ravens cover.

The final score was 17-10 in the AFC title game, but these teams will look quite different in Week 1. Kansas City has made a major leap forward offensively, while Baltimore has taken a step back defensively. However, the Ravens did add Derrick Henry, who will be a factor early in the season while he is rested and healthy. I set the total at 49.2 and appreciate that we're getting a number below the key figure of 47. We should expect to see points on opening night.

Xavier Worthy is not going to get a full workload early on in the season to keep him fresh for the second half but all he needs is a few targets to prove his worth as being one of the fastest runners in football. His route running, speed, and surprising toughness is going to be something that Patrick Mahomes hasn't had in his arsenal since Tyreek Hill left. I think Mahomes is going to love his play making and will be forced to get him the ball more than anticipated and the first game is when I expect him to catch a big pass or two. I go over 19.5 yards on his longest reception.

Everyone is worried about the Ravens' offensive line, which is replacing three starters. I'm concerned, too, but the good news is Pro Bowl center Tyler Lindenbaum (neck) is practicing without a red non-contact jersey. Lamar Jackson has dropped weight and is even faster. He wants to atone for his AFC Championship Game performance. Jackson is 12-0-1 ATS as a regular-season underdog (9-4 SU), and the Ravens are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven season openers, covering by 18.9 points per game. The only loss came in OT at Vegas. Look for Derrick Henry to make an immediate impact in a classic kickoff game that goes down to the wire. Grab the points.

Our first NFL player prop of the season and we're fading the rookie speedster out of Texas. Worthy has joined a Chiefs roster that not only is fairly crowded, but we last saw season with Rashee Rice that Andy Reid likes to bring his rookies along slowly. Despite Rashee Rice having off the charts efficiency metrics, he wasn't a full time player until late into the season and that was a much shallower depth chart. This is also a tough matchup against a full strength Baltimore secondary that finished 2nd in EPA allowed per dropback last season.

Reposting this pick from the summer now that the vast majority of you are turning your attention to NFL. We previously locked in the Chiefs at -2.5 on the temporary pick, and I still believe they're worth playing at -3. The defending champs may be weaker on the defensive side this year but got stronger offensively and should now be able to go back to opening up the offense more. I have the Chiefs 2.5 points better than Baltimore after updating my ratings, so it feels like we're getting home-field advantage for free here.

The Ravens have dropped just one opener under coach John Harbaugh since 2015. Many Ws were blowouts: 59-10 over Miami, 47-3 over Buffalo, 38-6 over Cleveland, 20-0 over Cincinnati. Only twice were victory margins in single digits. Suffice to say, Harbaugh always has the Ravens ready when the curtain opens. Some of the Chiefs, as two-time defending champions, might have gone through a less-than-dedicated offseason -- here's looking at you, Travis Kelce -- and could get out of the blocks slowly. Given that other books are listing the spread at 2.5, getting three points is a blessing.

This is a very tough matchup for the Ravens over time, especially at Arrowhead. After Chiefs dropped kickoff game a year ago to the Lions, I don't see it happening again. Ravens new DC and new pieces on defense will struggle some early against elite QBs. Andy Reid with this much time to prepare is a problem, Chiefs bottled up Ravens in playoffs and Patrick Mahomes is motivated to threepeat. I don't think BAL can keep pace