Both games this season went under, and this is the lowest total out of the three. Mount St. Mary’s plays at an average pace, 70 possessions per game, but the Red Foxes do not, less than 67 possessions. Despite being one of the top teams in the conference, Marist has one of the worst offenses in terms of efficiency. To end the season, they were shooting less than 41% effectively but their defense was still holding opponents to under 65 points per game over their final three games. The Mountaineers won’t get any easy shot inside the arc, as Marist is currently 9th in the country in defending there, holding teams to less than 46%.

The only two meetings between these teams went under this season. Now, the total is the lowest out of the three. New Mexico State is near the bottom of the country in offensive efficiency but it’s their defense that keeps them in games. They’re holding teams to less than 67 points, on average, and less than 47% shooting from the floor, 20th in the country. The Owls don’t shoot the three well and rely on transition buckets, which may be difficult against this defense. Kennesaw State’s defense is no slouch either, as it’s already challenging for the Aggies to score.

Two teams that play at a very slow pace, but the total hasn’t moved much. This is the same total as the last game they played which ended with 111 total points. Boise State averages less than 68 possessions per game and face the 12th best defense in country. The Broncos defense currently ranks 3rd in the country in keeping teams off the offensive glass and San Diego State isn’t as strong a rebounding team as seasons past. The Aztecs only have two players averaging in double figures and are near the bottom of the country in free throw percentage. At a neutral court, this could be a slow, grind it out type game.

Both meetings between these two went under this season. Another game where the total is the lowest out of the three. This game is being played at Madison Square Garden and St. John’s is 3rd in country in defensive efficiency, holding opponents to less than 67 points per game. The Red Storm have been ineffective all season from beyond the arc and Butler defends the perimeter at a top 50 rate. The Red Storm only have two player averaging in double digits and the Bulldogs have only averaged 66 points per game against this defense this season.

Navy won both of the regular season meetings. This is the lowest total out each of those games as well. Neither of these teams play fast as the Eagles average less than 66 possessions per game and Navy, less than 69. The Midshipmen commit a lot of fouls but draw even more and both teams are shooting over 73% from the stripe on the season. However, since this game is being played on American’s home floor and they’re the slower team, dictating the pace and with every possession being meaningful in the conference final.

Low total and it continues to move down. Both defenses are in the top 60 in terms of efficiency and West Virginia is holding their opponents to less than 65 points on the season. The pace in the game will be slower, as the Mountaineers will want to control and win it with defense. Colorado has shown glimpses that their offense can put up points, but they’re team of high variance as well. They won’t get many easy looks against this Mountaineer defense.

These two teams split the series and both games spilt the over/under as well. Charlotte is towards the bottom of the country in defensive efficiency and really struggle defending inside the arc. Lucky for them, the Owls shot less than 41% effectively from the floor in their final three games. Two below average teams and defenses would typically lean towards an over and don’t play fast, as they both average less than 69 possessions per game. Charlotte isn’t the best rebounding team either, so there won’t be many second chance opportunities.

Iowa State is 20-3-1 ATS in conference tournament games since 2012. The Bearcats covered the last meeting by the hook but were crushed on the glass. Cincinnati was able to force 18 turnovers in the last meetings and the Cyclones have been very shaky, overall, to end the season. Cincinnati also has the 3rd best scoring defense in the conference and are playing with momentum after shooting 47.8% from the floor and 75% from the free throw yesterday.

UCF ended the season in better form than the Utes. However, they’re still 1-2 ATS on a neutral court thus far. Utah has been on a coaching carousel to end the season but are still 10-5 ATS as favorites. The Knights rebounding takes a hit on the road and Utah has the height downlow to control the boards, especially offensively, leading to second chance opportunities. Despite their below .500 conference record, the Utes defend inside the arc well, where UCF has shoot below 45% over their final three games.

Saint Mary’s has won four of the last five meetings. Randy Bennett has proven that he can slow down the Bulldogs from keeping out in transition. Saint Mary’s plays at one of the slowest paces in the country and the Bulldogs defense is also able to slow teams down in transition, which won’t be a problem against Saint Mary’s, already playing as slow as they do. Even last night against the Waves, Saint Mary’s would use most of the shot clock which can also be expected tonight in a slow, grind-it-out type game. The total has gone under in six straight meetings as well.

Utah Tech has lost 14 games in a row. They lost both games this season to the Thunderbirds as well. This is a very weird number, and it continues to move in Utah Tech’s favor. Southern Utah is still the better team, but not by much. The Thunderbirds won both games this season by a combined nine points and have the better defensive team in this one. They’re just outside the top 100 in defending the perimeter, as Utah Tech is shooting less than 29% from three. Both teams aren’t great but this seems like a big number for a team on this type of losing streak.

Pepperdine has scored a total of 91 points in two games against the Gaels. Saint Mary’s has an elite defense, 11th in the country, and while the Waves have had a nice run in the conference tournament, points should be hard to come by tonight. Pepperdine wants an up-tempo game, but the Gaels will control the pace of this one. The Waves are shooting over 60% inside the arc in their last three games but Saint Mary’s holds their opponents to under 46% shooting in that area. Both games this season didn’t reach 125 points.

Omaha is already going dancing regardless of if they win or lose this game. The Tommies are ineligible for the tournament since they recently made the move to D-I. Both teams have been dominating in this tournament, both holding their opponents to under 65 points per game, on average, and performing at a high rate offensively. However, since St. Thomas won’t be in the big dance, this game should mean a lot more to them. While the Mavericks have a big edge on the glass, St. Thomas has been creating, on average, 18 turnovers over their last three games and should have a chip on their shoulder to capture the conference title.

New Orleans is playing the second game of a back-to-back and the third game in four nights. They’re also without Zion Williamson and CJ McCollum. The Grizzlies are looking to sweep the season series, but they’re also shorthanded tonight, without Luke Kennard, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Santi Aldama. The line has moved several points in the Grizzlies favor, as they look like the obvious play in this one but we’ll take the contrarian route.

This is going to be a tight one as it’s a very low total and it continues to drop. They two spilt in the regular season and both have been protecting the ball well on offense. Bradley is currently leading the country in shooting percentage from beyond the arc and have also been shooting 57.1% inside the arc, which is where the Bulldogs struggle to defend. Drake plays at one of the slowest paces in the country and aren’t as experienced as the Braves. Bradley defends the floor better and came alive in the second half in both their recent games.