Bob's Past Picks
Cincinnati just got dominated by the Bears. Kansas seems to be in a rough patch, losing two of their last three road games. The Bearcats have one of the toughest defenses, holding opponents to less than 60 points at home, while Kansas has struggled on the road, allowing more than 75 points in two of those last three road games. The Bearcats average 82.2 points on 49.2% shooting at home.
Mick Cronin just called out his team on their toughness which he may have a point. UCLA is not physical around the rim and their best player plays more like a guard. It may not have been the best time to call of his team on their toughness as they now travel across country to play Maryland who has an excellent defense at home, holding opponents to 57.6 points per game. This only the third true road game for the Bruins and they have been shooting less than 49% effectively on the road. Maryland has more physicality to control the paint and even though the Bruins rely on creating turnovers, Maryland protects the ball on offense very well.
Hawaii plays their third true road game of the season. The Highlanders are 6-0 SU at home and 3-1-1 ATS. UC Riverside just got dominated by the Anteaters, shooting 24% in the second half. Hawaii had an impressive win against the Mustangs, but that was on the island where they’re 9-3 SU and play their best. Hawaii struggles protecting the ball and are middle of the pack in terms of rebounding. The Highlanders aren’t the strongest offensive team, but they do grab offensive rebounds and are shooting 80.2% from the free throw line at home.
Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love and the Nittany Lions Abdul Carter are apparently good to go. This is by far the biggest game of James Franklin’s coaching career, and we all know how he fares in big game situations. Both teams have great rushing attacks, but Notre Dame’s rushing defense is 53rd in success rate allowed, so you may except run first approach for the Nittany Lions. But this all comes down to the play calling of Andy Kotelnicki and if the defense take away the passing game from Riley Leonard, who hasn’t been great in the playoffs, as Notre Dame relies heavily on the run.
Texas A&M’s Wade Taylor IV is out tonight with an undisclosed injury. He’s their leading scorer and the Aggies only have one other player averaging in double figures. Oklahoma is off a 28-point loss to the Crimson Tide but return home where they’re 8-0 SU. Texas A&M have a top 10 defense in the country in terms of efficiency, but this is only their second true road game of the season. Their offense hasn’t been as efficient as the Sooners, who shoot 57.1% effectively at home and the 6th best team in the nation from the stripe.
This is John Calipari’s first conference home game with the Razorbacks. Arkansas is off a rough showing against the Volunteers, only scoring 52 points well below their 80-point average on the year. This is Ole Miss’ third true road game of the season and have a strong defense that has only allows 64.5 points per game. They protect the ball well and create plenty of turnovers. The Razorback have had a plenty easy schedule at home thus far, holding opponents to less than 60 points per game, and they are shooting 59.7% effectively. They do have experienced guards to defend the perimeter well and look for a bounce back in Calipari’s SEC home debut.
This is only the third true road game for Drake. The Bulldogs have lost two straight while Bradley has won five straight and are undefeated in conference play. The Bulldogs play at one of the slowest paces in country which will be tough to replicate on the road against a much better rebounding team. They’re middle of the pack in defending the perimeter and the Braves are, currently, leading the nation in efficiency from beyond the arc. Drake has won five of the last six meetings between these two, covering them all as well, but the Braves are 8-0 SU at home thus far.
No Liam McNeeley tonight for UConn. This line is baiting one to take the Huskies tonight. Villanova has is 8-1 SU at home and 6-3 ATS, winners of four of their last five. Currently, they’re second in the nation in effectiveness from beyond the arc, which is an area that the Huskies struggle to defend. UConn’s defense isn’t as dominate as it was a year ago and the Wildcats have been shooting 61.9% at home and almost 80% from the stripe.
Northern Kentucky has lost five of their last six road games while also being 0-6 ATS. The Penguins aren’t the most efficient team, but they shoot better at home, 52.5% from inside the arc and 71% from the free throw line while Northern Kentucky shooting percentage on the road is less than 40%. The Norse want to create turnovers, but Youngstown State protect the ball fairly well and want to get out in transition. Their defense is just outside the top-100 in efficiency, but on the road, they’ve been allowing over 78 points per game.
Michigan just played the Trojans on the West Coast, so they haven’t had to travel. However, USC’s defense is not as efficient as the Bruins. Michigan has struggled with turnovers this entire season and now face the best team in the country in forcing turnovers. The Bruins are off a loss at Nebraska and have lost two of their last three games. The Wolverines want a fast-paced game, utilizing the pick and roll, which will lead right into the UCLA defense.
Vanderbilt has played one of the easiest schedules in the country. The Bulldogs haven’t won in Nashville since the 2020-21 season. Vanderbilt’s number may be inflated due to their less challenging schedule, as their 8th in the country in effective field goals inside the arc. Both teams protect the ball well and are inconsistent from beyond the arc. However, the Bulldogs are 2-0 SU and ATS on the road this season, defeating better overall teams in SMU and Memphis. The Bulldogs has the more experience defense and can limit the rebounding on both sides of the court.
Besides the Florida last game, a loss on the road to the Wildcats, this is will be their toughest game of the season to this point. Florida’s best win, thus far, has come against the Tar Heels. You can almost say that same about Tennessee, but their more battled tested with wins at Illinois and just dominated Arkansas. The Gators just allowed 106 points on the road, granted there was very little defense from both teams, but now they play an experienced and, most likely, the best defense in the country. Florida won’t get easy shots as they just struggled against the Wildcats.
Some reports are saying that Dylan Harper is probable tonight after missing last game with an illness. Wisconsin is off a 116-point victory over the Hawkeyes where they made 21 three’s, a program record. Rutgers has struggled to guard the perimeter, allowing opponents to shoot 34.9%, but it’s hard to think that the Badgers replicate that shooting performance again. Rutgers is 7-0 SU at home this season, with a strong home court environment while the Badgers are 0-2 SU on the road. As long as Harper plays, Rutgers should be able to attack the paint, which other teams have already exploited this season.
Illinois is off their dominate win over the Ducks. Washington has started to play better since the start of the season. They’ve won, and covered, four of their last five games, including a big win over the Terrapins. Illinois has been shooting 65.1% effectively over their last three games and have a favorable matchup against the Huskies. They have a bigger game against Penn State on deck, so they may be looking past the Huskies. The public is all over Illinois after their last game, but this could also be a letdown spot to an inferior opponent.
UTSA is off a tough loss to the Black Knights and are only 1-5 SU on the road thus far. Tulane 4-2 ATS at home this season while the Roadrunners are 3-3 ATS on the road. UTSA has struggles with turnovers this entire season and was the reason for their loss to the Black Knights. However, they do create a lot of them on defense and are one of the best free throw shooting teams, currently, in the country. Both offenses are pretty similar and despite their 6-6 record, UTSA has been the more competitive team while playing the much tougher schedule.