Looking at a game of dump off passes here. Detroit passed to Jahmyr Gibbs for a TD and 5 short receiving (31 yards) to save Goff vs the MIN defense and the Rams will look to do the same. While the model doesn't like Kyren Williams rush yards, we do like him to get a few dump off passes from Stafford vs the Vikings who blitz like crazy. While the over is just under 50% since 2023, he has averaged 13.7 yards which is well over this line and history should justify a line of 12.5.

Penn State will be a wake up call for Notre Dame. They have an experienced QB who will not give you a strip sack converted to a touchdown like Georgia, and their offense should take more advantage of ND's battered DLine. Notre Dame scored 9 points of true traditional offense last round. Penn State should win the turnover battle which should be just enough to squeeze out a win.

This is just asking a typical game. Now if Banchero plays then Naz Reid may get more minutes because he is playing well offensively and has a better defensive rating (109) than Julius Randle (112). He has gone over this in his last 3 games against Orlando as well as his 2 previous games this week. I'd support taking the 5.5 at plus money too.

This is a volume play. The other guards, Jalen Suggs, Anthony Black, and Gary Harris are all dealing with injuries so Cole Anthony should get 30+ min like he has the last 2 games. He has not had big games the last 2 (16 and 24 PRA) but he has gotten 11+ FGAs for 4 straight games. The Knicks should be up big which allows Anthony to play a large role and get up plenty of shots, even if he doesn’t start. The Model makes the number 28.

This is all about the increase in receiving yards. Not only is Aaron Jones having his second best rushing season, but we see a steady increase in receiving yards with 6, 11, 20, 26, 30 the last 5 games. The best way to attack this battered Lions defense right now is through the air. The over was on a 9-5 run until he had 77 last week, time to buy back in.

Craig Reynolds has entered the chat. Jahmyr Gibbs will be the clear cut RB1, but Reynolds had 31 rushing and 35 receiving yards vs SF earning a clear role. We are projecting just 25 RB rush attempts and think Reynolds can get 30 to even 40% of those. This Minnesota defense in general limits first down yards and should force some passing positions in early downs.

Great buy low spot. Naz Reid is 3-7 to this number in his last 10 games, but the volume is there. He also averages 19 points and rebounds against Boston in his last three. Boston likes to get their opponents in a three-point race, and I think we should get 5+ attempts from Reid there. He'll either contribute to Minnesota keeping this game tight by playing well, or he'll get the minutes off the bench vs Boston's backups if it's a blowout.

Boise State will be uncomfortable here. It is not enough to be a one dimensional offense against a defense like Penn State, especially when you have a top four draft pick at edge. The only way Boise could have success is throwing in early downs which I don't see happening. Penn State's offense will be able to take advantage of this vulnerable secondary in Boise State. And while Boise's pass rush has been great, this will be the best O-line they face.

This is a usage play. When Isaac Guerendo is the primary back, he has 18, 50 and 17 receiving yards with 9 receptions. While his yards per reception are just shy of 8, he has the explosive upside to hit this over with one catch. But two should definitely get us there. And as far as his health, all his props across books indicate that he will be good to go as RB1.

At some point you have to play your best at home. Charlotte has some funky home/road splits as does Chicago. I'd like to think we regress back to home court being an advantage, and we should see that come to life with Charlotte's turnover advantage and rebounding advantage. Mark Williams is coming back into his own after injury which seems to go ignored in this spread. The model makes the game a pick 'em.

The Cougars are on a heater. And I'd tell you they are due to slow down after winning three straight, but one of those wins came against Nevada, and team that beat Washington. It also included Boise on the road. Despite injuries, this is still a 7-8 man rotation that is taking care of business. The Sportsline model has WSU winning outright by 3.

Great home team vs bad road team. The Buffs' point differential at home is +15, and they are 7-0 at home this season. They are 15-11 ATS at home since last season and should have no problem against a South Dakota St defense that is not traveling well. The Sportsline Model makes it an 18-point win.

Don't blink! Healthy Joel Embiid who is giving effort. We must capitalize on this while we can. This is a great matchup for him as was Chicago where he put up 31 points. Indiana not only is a bad team on the road (3-11), but super vulnerable to centers. Centers who average at least 18 pts per game average +5.2 more at home vs Indiana. Embiid is 3-0 to this number against the Pacers, averaging 35 points.

It's a long time comin'. Ricky Pearsall has big play potential with a 39 yard run and one 46 yard catch. His production is inconsistent but he has gotten at least 30 snaps in every game. One catch could hit the over. The model makes the number 26.

This line is tight based off one game. But that game was played between Chet Holmgren’s injury and Isaiah Hartenstein’s return, which resulted in a Dallas win. Since Hartenstein’s return, OKC is 7-2 ATS. OKC is also a better shooting team from home and higher volume shooting team. The model makes this a double-digit victory.