I've seen this movie before. We took Fred VanVleets boards against Dallas because Dallas can't out rebound anyone right now. VanVleet ended the night soaring over this number. Philadelphia in fact got out rebounded by Dallas, which gives me no reason to believe VanVleet can't do this to them too. I like HOU to keep VanVleet’s minutes up as he’s getting back into the groove after a long absence and Amen Thompson is out. Our Model projects him for 4.3.

Get the even money while you can. This opened at +110 and is already on its way down. Bam Adebayo has 2 assists in his last 2 games and the Heat offense is really struggling in a 7 game losing streak. But before that, Bam was on a 7-1 run to the over. I expect the Heat to pick up their offense in the Garden, and for Bam to at least just have a "normal" game. Which includes 4 assists on the night.

Alex Sarr is making a conscious effort not to foul out. He didn’t have under 2 PFs in his first 20+ games but now he has under 2.5 PFs in 11 of his last 14 games. Toronto won’t have starting Center Jakob Poeltl and backup Jonathan Mogbo which should help Sarr produce more stats with less of a chance of getting into foul trouble. I like that his average is up to 23.6 his last 5 games with 3 going comfortably over this line.

I'm willing to bet LaMelo Ball stops fouling out. He was on pace to go over this before fouling out against CLE, and he went soaring over this number vs MIN with 16 before then fouling out. His intended 30+ minutes should be enough to get us there. He is also 4-0 to this over against Miami the past two seasons.

No Sabonis means rebounds left on the table for others to pick up. And with Dallas missing essentially all of their bigs still, they are getting killed on the boards. The over is 17-5 since Jan 5th and a lot of this production happened with De’Aaron Fox and Sabonis playing,. Without them Monk’s 11+ chances should be even higher.

He doesn't always need them, but he's certainly making them. SGA has made at least 3 threes in four of his last five games. The over is even a solid 4-2 in his last 6 games vs. Houston. Houston is a very good defensive team but given how many starters, and top-tier defensive players, who may be out tonight their 3pt defense should suffer. Not to mention SGA is on a 12-6 over stretch at home.

If anyone knows the Mavs offense, it's this guy. Luka is not a good one on one defender, but he is a smart player and he knows the Mavericks’ offense so what he lacks in true on the ball defense he can make up for with picking someone’s pocket. He is also coming off a 4 steal game against Denver. Doncic averages nearly 2 steals per game so to get this price on a line well under his average seems like a golden opportunity.

This Suns team is a mess. There's an obvious lack of chemistry, and they play like an All-Star team that doesn't care to rebound. Without offensive put backs, it's hard to crack this number on three-point shooting alone. They haven't hit this over in 6 games. And while Memphis defense does not travel well, they do know how to clamp down at home, allowing 112 PPG.

This line is on its way down. Fred VanVleet is expected to play tonight after a lengthy absence which should eat into Amen Thompson's minutes. Jabari Smith is also back, so we should see Thompson's minutes back to what they were in the first half of the season. The line has not adjusted to this and it might be the last time we get a PRA this high for Thompson. When the team was at full strength Nov/Dec, he averaged just 21.3 and was 6-26 over this number.

We've seen this movie before. Kelly Olynyk had a big 14 point, 15 rebound and 2 assist game 2 days ago vs the Spurs as he capitalized on Wemby’s absence both offensively and on the boards. He should play a solid amount of minutes again tonight, as he has the last 2 nights, and take advantage of the same opportunities.

Nothing Banchero isn't used to against this team. In last year's playoff series, he had 8 steals in 7 games. We also get a good buy low price, as he has gone six straight games without a steal. If Darius Garland is out or limited it could lead to more passing by the front court and turnovers.

Rebounding and turnovers here. Orlando should win this battle which should allow them to keep the game closer than oddsmakers imply. They are a solid rebounding team at home specifically and have won the TO battle their past 4 games. Both teams could be without their starting PGs with Jalen Suggs out again and Darius Garland questionable, but Orlando is much more used to playing without Suggs and should find early success on their home court.

Fade Baylor on the road. This team is 3-9 in their last 12 road games and 1-11 ATS. Safe to say they don't travel well. And on top of that, their starting center is out for the rest of the year. I'm willing to ride with Cinci who is 12-4 SU at home.

Fading the Magic on the road, what else is new. Jalen Suggs is still out for Orlando and they are only 6-14 SU since his injury. As for Atlanta, after suffering some brutal injuries to key starters, they have impressively covered 7 straight games (4-3 SU) and lost these 3 games by a total of just 7 points. Typically I like to fade Orlando ATS, but with essentially a pick 'em line, we mine as well go for the plus money here.

We're not going to get enough minutes from Quentin Grimes with the Big 3 back. He comes into this game with three strong overs, his strongest being when Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey didn't play. When he plays 26-28 min (projected for 27) the over is just 5-7. Grimes should be just as impacted by the Big 3 as the other role players, but for whatever reason they are feeding us the same line from recent games. Expect closet to a 16 PRA, which is his overall home average.