The trends are in our favor here. Not only is Pascal Siakam 10-4 over this vs the Knicks the last two seasons (including 5-2 in last season’s playoff series), he is also 8-5 to this over in his recent stretch of games. Even though he is a star player with championship pedigree, he rarely gets double teamed and is not the focal point of the defense with Halliburton being the team superstar. This over is just dependent on minutes, and I think we get enough from him in Game 1.

This line keeps steaming up and with good reason. Obviously with Jayson Tatum out, every starter for the Celtics needs to play at least 32 minutes, if not nearly 40. There are 25 to 30 FGAs that need to be re-distributed for Boston when you factor Jayson Tatum’s absence and Kristaps Porzingis’ inability to do anything...this becomes intriguing. We are getting a good buy low price because Jrue Holiday has been ultra focused on defending Jalen Brunson but he still managed 14 big points in Game 5 on just 8 FGAs. his should be a situation where Holiday is back at the 9 attempt level and he can go over 10.5 even with below average efficiency given half of his shots will be threes.

No better time to buy in on Minnesota 3-point shooting! I'm eying Julius Randle because I like his consistently high 3-point attempts through the playoffs. He was 3-2 to this over in the Lakers series, and again for what it's worth, somebody on this Timberwolves team is due to break lose from deep. Our Model has him projected for 1.7, so we're getting a solid price at essentially even money.

Dennis Schroder is the most consistent ball handler on Detroit. And that is exactly what this Pistons team needs to stay alive; Cade Cunningham had 6 turnovers alone last game. Schroder is shooting 52% from the field and 53% from 3pt range and he benefits from coming off fresh from the bench probably facing a defender who is already beginning to tire. He comes in 18-6 over 9.5, averaging 12.3 points and 28 minutes.

The Lakers are losing these games playing at their ceiling. They dropped the last two games despite shooting 40%+ from 3pt range on 40+ attempts. The Lakers are a very good home team (+4 point differential) but they are not vastly better than Minnesota is as a road team this season (+3 point differential). The Lakers’ lone win came when Minnesota shot an aberrantly poor 20% on just 25 3pt attempts. It might be the end of the road for LAL.

We are officially back IN on Zach Edey. He is projected for 9.5 points in the SportsLine Model because Memphis can’t possibly think going out with the same offensive plan that resulted in a 51 point and a 19 point loss is a good idea. Prior to the last 2 playoff games, Edey had been 18-7, 72% over 7.5. Let's continue to ride the Edey wave and buy back in at his knocked down point line.

This prop is getting pricier for good reason. People are understanding how uncharacteristic Game 1 was for Kyle Kuzma. Kuzma has averaged 7.8 combined rebounds and assists per game with Milwaukee this season, so this line is set more than two full R+A below his season average. After what arguably was the worst game of his career, I expect Kuzma at the very least to put effort in crashing the boards and control the things he can, even if his shot is off again.

Mikal Bridges is one to bounce back. He had just 8 points on 9 FG attempts in 29 minutes. The last time he scored 8 points (at CLE on April 2) he bounced back with 20 the next game. We should take advantage of this lower line while we can, as he does average +3.3 at home (19.3) than on the road. The Sportsline Model has him projected for 18 points.

Time to sell high on Zach Edey. I'm the first to take his overs, but the first to recognize a heat check. The combination of facing resting and bad teams and lucky bounces has resulted in a rebounding rate that is just too unsustainably high for the center. I also think there is a chance for early foul trouble for Edey which could keep him under 30 minutes. Dallas didn't need to show their full rebounding potential last game, as they shot so well from three they didn't have any offensive rebound opportunities. I think this is the game where we see the Big 3 have their moment, and Edey will struggle.

Zach Edey shouldn't lose many minutes here. Guys his size are often relegated to the bench in games that become three point shootouts but Edey has shown he can play in that style with a respectable 34.6% 3pt percentage on just under 1 attempt per game. All we are doing is projecting him for a normal offensive output as he averaged 9.2 on the road, and even put up 10 in recent matchup with the Warriors.

This line is steaming down for good reason. Defense is effort, and Memphis is a team that can turn that on when necessary, especially when they let Steph Curry drop 52 on them earlier. The Warriors have been locking down defensively as well in recent weeks, and only allow 107 PPG since Jimmy Butler joined the lineup.

Orlando beat Atlanta playing over their heads this season. Orlando is a team that shoots 32% from 3-point range, even at home. They shot 41% against the Hawks a few days ago and still lost. I think Atlanta stays within the 5.5 points here.

Hop on this while you still can, time to sell high. While Zach Edey is great and just put up wild numbers in his last outing, we have to remember that was against Charlotte. The middle of the West is ridiculously competitive and this is a massive game for teams looking to avoid the Play-In. This is a sell high line that is a full six points over his season home average of 17.6. I don't think he will play enough minutes to have a chance at this over, and even if he does, he is still 22-8 to the under on this specific line at home.

Hopping on this before more of his teammates are ruled out. Yes Deni Avdija is putting up ridiculous scoring numbers in this recent stretch with all the injuries, but he is also putting up more rebounds + assists. His points line has steamed up while his rebounds/assists line not so much. His recent over 14.5 is 6-2, including a whopping 21 and 25 his last 2 games (both on the road).

Plus money on a line below his average? Sure. Throw in the added motivation of the Kings looking to get the last play-in spot and bounce back from a bad loss to Washington. Plus, the Hornets are tanking, so you hopefully get a nice early 3rd quarter cover. DeMar DeRozan has gone over this number 53.5% of his games and in 4 of his last 5 games vs Charlotte. DeRozan also likes to pick on the weak. He has 4+ rebounds in 10 of 14 games where the Kings were favored by at least 8.5 including games where he played just 17 and 26 minutes.