Hopping on this before more of his teammates are ruled out. Yes Deni Avdija is putting up ridiculous scoring numbers in this recent stretch with all the injuries, but he is also putting up more rebounds + assists. His points line has steamed up while his rebounds/assists line not so much. His recent over 14.5 is 6-2, including a whopping 21 and 25 his last 2 games (both on the road).

Plus money on a line below his average? Sure. Throw in the added motivation of the Kings looking to get the last play-in spot and bounce back from a bad loss to Washington. Plus, the Hornets are tanking, so you hopefully get a nice early 3rd quarter cover. DeMar DeRozan has gone over this number 53.5% of his games and in 4 of his last 5 games vs Charlotte. DeRozan also likes to pick on the weak. He has 4+ rebounds in 10 of 14 games where the Kings were favored by at least 8.5 including games where he played just 17 and 26 minutes.

Year of the chalk. But outside of that, this Houston team matches up really well against Purdue, they should bully them down low. Purdue's biggest weakness is their 2-point defense, allowing as high as 91% this year with stretches of 69%. Houston should win the rebounding battle, put back offensive boards, and compliment it with their three point game to go over this number.

I've seen this movie before. We took Fred VanVleets boards against Dallas because Dallas can't out rebound anyone right now. VanVleet ended the night soaring over this number. Philadelphia in fact got out rebounded by Dallas, which gives me no reason to believe VanVleet can't do this to them too. I like HOU to keep VanVleet’s minutes up as he’s getting back into the groove after a long absence and Amen Thompson is out. Our Model projects him for 4.3.

Get the even money while you can. This opened at +110 and is already on its way down. Bam Adebayo has 2 assists in his last 2 games and the Heat offense is really struggling in a 7 game losing streak. But before that, Bam was on a 7-1 run to the over. I expect the Heat to pick up their offense in the Garden, and for Bam to at least just have a "normal" game. Which includes 4 assists on the night.

Alex Sarr is making a conscious effort not to foul out. He didn’t have under 2 PFs in his first 20+ games but now he has under 2.5 PFs in 11 of his last 14 games. Toronto won’t have starting Center Jakob Poeltl and backup Jonathan Mogbo which should help Sarr produce more stats with less of a chance of getting into foul trouble. I like that his average is up to 23.6 his last 5 games with 3 going comfortably over this line.

I'm willing to bet LaMelo Ball stops fouling out. He was on pace to go over this before fouling out against CLE, and he went soaring over this number vs MIN with 16 before then fouling out. His intended 30+ minutes should be enough to get us there. He is also 4-0 to this over against Miami the past two seasons.

No Sabonis means rebounds left on the table for others to pick up. And with Dallas missing essentially all of their bigs still, they are getting killed on the boards. The over is 17-5 since Jan 5th and a lot of this production happened with De’Aaron Fox and Sabonis playing,. Without them Monk’s 11+ chances should be even higher.

He doesn't always need them, but he's certainly making them. SGA has made at least 3 threes in four of his last five games. The over is even a solid 4-2 in his last 6 games vs. Houston. Houston is a very good defensive team but given how many starters, and top-tier defensive players, who may be out tonight their 3pt defense should suffer. Not to mention SGA is on a 12-6 over stretch at home.

If anyone knows the Mavs offense, it's this guy. Luka is not a good one on one defender, but he is a smart player and he knows the Mavericks’ offense so what he lacks in true on the ball defense he can make up for with picking someone’s pocket. He is also coming off a 4 steal game against Denver. Doncic averages nearly 2 steals per game so to get this price on a line well under his average seems like a golden opportunity.

This Suns team is a mess. There's an obvious lack of chemistry, and they play like an All-Star team that doesn't care to rebound. Without offensive put backs, it's hard to crack this number on three-point shooting alone. They haven't hit this over in 6 games. And while Memphis defense does not travel well, they do know how to clamp down at home, allowing 112 PPG.

This line is on its way down. Fred VanVleet is expected to play tonight after a lengthy absence which should eat into Amen Thompson's minutes. Jabari Smith is also back, so we should see Thompson's minutes back to what they were in the first half of the season. The line has not adjusted to this and it might be the last time we get a PRA this high for Thompson. When the team was at full strength Nov/Dec, he averaged just 21.3 and was 6-26 over this number.

We've seen this movie before. Kelly Olynyk had a big 14 point, 15 rebound and 2 assist game 2 days ago vs the Spurs as he capitalized on Wemby’s absence both offensively and on the boards. He should play a solid amount of minutes again tonight, as he has the last 2 nights, and take advantage of the same opportunities.

Nothing Banchero isn't used to against this team. In last year's playoff series, he had 8 steals in 7 games. We also get a good buy low price, as he has gone six straight games without a steal. If Darius Garland is out or limited it could lead to more passing by the front court and turnovers.

Rebounding and turnovers here. Orlando should win this battle which should allow them to keep the game closer than oddsmakers imply. They are a solid rebounding team at home specifically and have won the TO battle their past 4 games. Both teams could be without their starting PGs with Jalen Suggs out again and Darius Garland questionable, but Orlando is much more used to playing without Suggs and should find early success on their home court.