The ERA is misleading, because Eduardo Rodriguez looks more like the pitcher Arizona thought it was getting last season. His K% has climbed from 21% in 2024 to 26.5% in seven starts, and he's had two double-digit strikeout games. I wouldn't count on that tonight, but I like his chances of getting halfway there.

Paddack has the lowest K% of his career so far in 2025, and has been very boom-or-bust with strikeouts. He's had five or more in three starts and only two in each of the other four. Tonight he's facing a Giants offense with plenty of swing-and-miss to it, and I like our odds for a boom.

The Twins have a strikeout rate of 21.5% as a team but that number jumps to 26.9% against lefties, which is the third-highest rate in the league. Enter Garret Crochet, who is capble of striking out anybody.

Yusei Kikuchi was awful in his last outing against the Twins and lasted only two innings. Look for a bounceback today against a Tigers offense that has plenty of swing-and-miss to its approach. Kikuchi had at least five strikeouts in his first five starts before the disaster in Minnesota.

Lugo got off to a slow start this season when it comes to missing bats, but he's averaging 5.75 strikeouts per start over his last four outings and I have his projection closer to 5.5 here.

Bowden Francis isn't a big-time strikeout pitcher by any stretch, but my projections say this number should be 5.5. Francis has at least five strikeouts in three of his five starts and the Red Sox offense ranks 24th in strikeout rate.

It's a big number, but my projections have this number closer to 8, so getting the plus money odds makes it well worth it. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has struck out at least eight hitters in three of his five starts, and the Pirates offense ranks 21st in K%.

Seth Lugo's strikeout numbers have dropped this year, and it's leading to some value in the betting market. He's only finished with fewer than four strikeouts in one of his first five starts , and he's facing an Astros offense that isn't quite what it used to be, but still includes plenty of swing-and-miss.

Corbin Burnes has yet to pitch up to his contract in Arizona. After debuting with eight strikeouts against the Yankees, he's only managed three in each of his last three starts. Today he faces a Rays offense that does a good job of avoiding strikeouts.

Carmen Mlodzinski didn't strike out anybody in four innings in his last start against Cleveland, but struck out at least four in his first three starts and today he faces an Angels offense with the second-highest K rate in baseball.

Logan Webb couldn't find his changeup in 2024 and it led to a career low K/9 of 7.6. He has it this year and that K/9 is up to 11.4. The Giants will turn to their ace to go deep into tonight's game after allowing 11 runs last night, only increasing the odds he goes past this number.

The concern here is that no offense strikes out less often than San Diego, but Reese Olson has made four starts in 2025 and has had at least 5 strikeouts in three of them. He doesn't have overwhelming stuff, but his changeup is one of the best in baseball and makes plenty of hitters look foolish.

This is available some places at 5.5 with plus odds, and that's all right if you want to take it as my projections say Brandon Pfaadt's total should be much closer to 5.5 than 4.5. I'll pay the juice at 4.5, myself.

There probably isn't a park in baseball that changes how it plays due to the weather more drastically than Wrigley Field. The forecast for this evening's game suggests the ball will find travel through the atmosphere to be much easier than most days.

Griffin Canning couldn't strike anybody out in 2024, but he's up to 9.0 K/9 this season, and has struck out 14 hitters in his two starts at home.