This is a great spot for the Cowboys. Home opener, offensive line playing reasonably well, plus Marshon Lattimore could miss this game for the Saints, opening up a chance for Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb to really go off and the Saints flying high after . The Kubiak stuff is interesting because new Cowboys DC Mike Zimmer spent a TON of time coaching with both Gary and Klint Kubiak and I think he'll generally know how to slow down the Saints offense. I also think the Saints offensive line looked better than it is against a joke of a pass rush for Carolina.

This line has moved in several places, but I personally bet it on DraftKings after writing this up so I know it's still there. Raheem Mostert has been ruled out and Achane got tons of goal line work even when Mostert was in there. There's some health risk with Achane banged up but this should really be closer to -125 (it will end up being around -150 which is way too pricey).

The Bills got involved in a serious back and forth with the Cardinals on Sunday and I expect the Dolphins to have much more success through the air than they did against the Jaguars. The team was discombobulated by the Tyreek Hill arrest, Jacksonville is sneaky on defense and Buffalo can be attacked vertically. Conversely, I don't think Miami will slow down Josh Allen, and we might see a Dalton Kincaid explosion game on TNF.

Christian Watson's battled injuries throughout his career, particularly with his hamstrings, but he's been healthy throughout this offseason and is ready to roll in full health on Friday night. He went over this in six of nine games last year, Jordan Love greatly enjoys pushing the ball down the field and it would be stunning if Watson didn't catch at least one deep ball. Think this number should be in the 20's easily.

Bateman's been hyped all offseason by the coaching staff and the team and he's going to take advantage with a strong game here. This is kind of mispriced honestly and I think he could go as high as 50 in this game fairly easily with how KC will pivot their defense. #BatemanSZN in full effect

The Chiefs are set to kick off their b2b title defense on Thursday night and while recent history says the defending champs won't handle their biz, I think this rendition of the Chiefs is set to prove that wrong with a heavy offense attack that hits at all levels and makes the Ravens one dimensional (see: their playoff game) and KC walking away with more than three point win.

The Bills have been on the right side of this rivalry in the regular season lately but very much on the wrong side in the playoffs. However, this is Patrick Mahomes' first road playoff game of his career and he's headed to Buffalo ... not exactly the easiest place to play. The Bills are rolling right now and I expect them to come out on top. Paying up to take the moneyline (vs the juiced spread) is the move in a game that could easily come down to a walkoff field goal.

It's looking more and more ...... likely that we don't get Mark Andrews in the Divisional Round, which means the backup tight end for Baltimore is going to be the starter again. Likely has been awesome for the Ravens in Andrews' absence and this price is too good to pass up.

The Browns have so much more playoff experience than the Texans and Joe Flacco is playing for cash in this spot with a $250k bonus on the line if Cleveland advances. Houston's pass funnel defense sets up for Amari Cooper and David Njoku to produce in the air via Flacco and C.J. Stroud is a rookie starting his first playoff game.

The Cowboys road "struggles" may be more related to playing good teams and getting them at a bad time (at the Niners in prime time, at Philly, at Buffalo, at Miami). The only really bad loss on the road was at the Cardinals, which was a wheelhouse spot to sleepwalk for a Dallas team that started out hot. The Commanders are likely (?) starting Sam Howell again and behind a bad offensive line he could be in big trouble against this Dallas pass rush. Washington's defense hasn't held anyone to less than 27 points since Week 9, when they beat the Patriots 20-17. That was Nov. 5, their last win. Ron Rivera's last stand is unlikely to be inspiring.

It's pretty shocking that Antonio Pierce hasn't been given the Raiders job already, but it makes sense with what we know about Jim Harbaugh's desire to return to the NFL. Mark Davis loves a splash hire and Harbs would qualify, especially if he won the natty for Michigan and then jumped back to the NFL. Regardless, we get a team in Las Vegas looking to really make a final push for the interim coach they want hired full time against a team in Denver that might be phoning it in a bit with Jarrett Stidham having taken over for Russell Wilson and the Broncos fully eliminated from postseason contention.

Cardinals coming off their Super Bowl, beating the Eagles outright to really ruin Gannon's old team's season. Seahawks fighting for their playoff lives -- they're in with a win and the Bears beating the Packers. I think Chicago keeps it close with Green Bay in that game because the Packers defense isn't likely to close anyone out. Which means the Seahawks are very likely to keep their foot on the gas offensively and defensively throughout the entirety of this game. Even if Seattle is scoreboard watching -- and they won't likely be getting any updates until later in the game if at all -- Pete Carroll won't let his team stop trying to compete. Seahawks motivation factor here is just too high to ignore.

This is a battle of two division rivals desperate to try and find their way into the playoffs while also trying to simply field healthy rosters. The Packers have been obliterated by injuries the last few weeks but might be getting a little bit healthier for Jordan Love this week. Meanwhile the Vikings got hit with some major injuries, losing T.J. Hockensen for the season and likely Jordan Addison for this week. We should see plenty of blitzing from Brian Flores but Aaron Jones full strength in the passing game should be enough to ease up the pressure and allow Jordan Love to get some shots open downfield as well.

The Washington offense has been night and day the last two weeks when Jacoby Brissett replaces Sam Howell. You can draw your own conclusions about a Wolfpacker vs. a Tar Heel, but there's a clear difference in the experience level of the two quarterbacks. Howell is the future in Ron Rivera's eyes, but Rivera isn't even the future, so whatever he says about the quarterback situation is largely irrelevant. Howell needs "a break" and that's fair, he's been beat down badly. Brissett has engineered five straight TD drives for Washington and nearly stormed back to beat a good Jets defense. The 49ers will be angry but Washington should be able to stay within two touchdowns.

This line is pretty shocking: the Eagles are scuffling lately. Coming out of the bye, Philly stole games from the Chiefs and Bills, then lost three straight games and then let the Giants hang around on Christmas Day last week. Kyler Murray and this offense -- particularly Trey McBride -- should be able to move the ball against Philadelphia. The Eagles offense is still a little wobbly, particularly when it comes to attacking via the air. I expected big things out of A.J. Brown on Christmas Day but he and Jalen Hurts really haven't been on the same page very much lately. This spread is just too high for a Cardinals team still fighting hard.