Take the Niners early. Avoid having to deal with Chiefs adjustments. Also remember last year’s SB…..the Chiefs are not immune to slow starts. And it’s unlikely the Niners start slowly again.

Andy Reid and the Chiefs are the anti Lions: They take the points. With great kicking conditions I like the over. If you can find over 1.5 attempts I like that even more

So many reasons to go under. Great CB, possible double teamed, has slumped except for strange outlier plays…..all say 5 catches is too many. Under.

We love CMC getting touches early. Getting Purdy comfy with short dump offs is one of many ways this can cash. Over

Although the price is a bit chalky, it has actually dropped from a high of -170 or steeper at some outlets. At this price, it's extremely playable as a straight bet or in a single-game parlay. Although TD production is subject to variance, this is still a meager milestone for the game's best QB to clip on a stage where we've seen him excel. Mahomes has hit this mark in two of his previous three Super Bowl appearances.

The 49ers' defense has been leaky in the playoffs, while the Chiefs' stagnant offense came alive just in time for the postseason. With the game on turf and numerous game-breakers on each side, this has the feel of a game script similar to when these clubs met in Super Bowl 54. It might be a bit sloe early, but look for second-half fireworks that send this Over the total.

The dual-threat bellcow is a generational talent. and he's been well worth the multiple draft picks the 49ers traded to get him. He's found the end zone twice in each of the first two postseason games, and there's solid value for him to do it again as he performs on the sport's biggest stage for the first time.

Brandon Aiyuk is certainly going to be in for one of his toughest assignments of the season. The advantage for him to go over his receiving yards is the San Francisco rush attack. They will not deviate from using CMC for twenty carries, which puts pressure on a Chiefs defense that has not seen a team do so the entire postseason. Look for Aiyuk to capitalize on one big play and three to four standard catches.

Brock Purdy is going to have his hands full with a Chiefs pass defense that surrendered just 181.5 yards per game in the regular season. KC finished 3rd in EPA allowed per dropback, 2nd in Success %, 5th in Explosive pass %, and excel in taking away the splash zone which just so happens to be what SF's passing offense is predicated on attacking. In other words, the Chiefs are a difficult matchup for the 49ers passing offense. It makes a whole lot of sense for SF to lean heavily on their All-Universe RB and limit Brock Purdy's passing attempts. Furthermore, I believe when the lines are this sharp you can gain a solid understanding as to how the game is most likely to unfold.

Samuel will likely see a lot of man coverage from Kansas City's defense. If the 49ers can protect Brock Purdy, the 28-year-old could be in for a huge game on Sunday. I expect Samuel, who has elite big play potential, to finish with 75+ receiving yards.

I unsuccessfully faded the stud rookie WR in the AFC Championship, however this price is simply too good to pass on. SF possesses an elite pass defense and considering Mahomes unwillingness and perhaps lacking the personnel to attack downfield, the 49ers DBs will be physical at the LOS. I also believe we'll see KC implement a balanced approach while the Chiefs are working with a positive/neutral game script, thus limiting Mahomes dropbacks. SF's pass defense finished the regular season 4th in EPA per dropback, 3rd in PFFs coverage grade, and unsurprisingly were excellent against opposing QB's first reads. They also paired that with a ferocious pass rush and only two WRs reeled in 7+ receptions in their last 7 games (including playoffs).

Isaiah Pacheco has had an excellent season but has really come on strong down the stretch and through the postseason. Pacheco runs hard and punishes would be tacklers and it's been a revelation to see Andy Reid lean heavily on his young stud RB. Pacheco has 24+ carries in 2/3 Chiefs postseason games while averaging a healthy 85 rushing yards against 3 very solid defenses in BUF, MIA, and BAL. You could make the argument that SF run defense is the weakest of the group and we've seen SF run D get gashed by the likes of DET and GB in their playoff games. I believe we see another big dose of Pacheco and the Chiefs continue to lean heavily on him in neutral/positive gamescripts.

Purdy needs all the help he can get in this game against an elite defense and top coordinator. His legs have become a thing for him more in the playoffs and this return is worth the risk. When Steve Spagnuolo does blitz the kid QB will be looking to scoot and I also anticipate far more zone coverage from Spags than in regular season and tighter downfield coverage, leading to Purdy scooting himself. Especially when in empty (SF tied for 5th most plays out of empty this season including playoffs). Could see a kneel down at the half if backed up with Kyle Shanahan conservative about such things. His newfound wheels will be front of mind after helping key comeback over Lions.

It seems the entire observable universe is betting on the Chiefs... I'll go the opposite way. I get it. Mahomes is an unbelievable 10-1-1 ATS when playing as an underdog. When the money on the handle is against Mahomes, he is 15-7 ATS. However, the public betting market is very much with Mahomes in this game. When listed as the public side, he is a much more human 45-42-3 ATS. Many analysts sold on this Chiefs team halfway through the season. Now they are unbeatable all of a sudden? I don't buy it. If the Chiefs have the better QB, head coach, kicker, more playoff experience and the public backing... why are they still +110 underdogs? I smell a trap. Bet Niners.

Mahomes had one of his best games of the year at Allegiant Stadium, posting a season-best 79% completion rate with 298 yards, two TDs and zero interceptions. But that game was atypical of his performance down the stretch; after reaching 270 passing yards in five of his first seven games, he crossed 245 yards just four times in his last 12 games. The Chiefs should be able to lean on the rushing attack here, and this number would make more sense in the 240s based on Mahomes' recent performance.

Christian McCaffrey is a massive -230 favorite to score a touchdown after scoring twice in both of the 49ers' playoff games. But he's also failed to score in two of their last six games. On the other hand, Pacheco has scored in seven straight games. McCaffrey may have the volume edge, with just two games falling short of 20 touches in his last nine, but Pacheco has only fallen short of 20 touches twice in his last eight. Pacheco's odds to score a TD shouldn't be equal to McCaffrey, but they certainly should be closer.

I'm backing Patrick Mahomes with two Super Bowl rings and three appearances. The pressure is on the 49ers and their young QB Brock Purdy. I think Mahomes can stay calm, cool and collected.

Purdy is playing in his first Super Bowl and pressure in a real thing. Jared Goff was 19-38 for 223 yards in his first Super Bowl appearance versus New England. The Chiefs defense is a Top 5 unit with the 2nd best pass defense in the NFL.

Mahomes could have three kneel downs to end the game. He ran six times against both Buffalo and Baltimore.

So much pressure in the Super Bowl, I think it will be a tough day for Brock Purdy. I do think Purdy will do everything he can do to help his team win and that includes leaving the pocket to pick up a first down. When the season was on the line the last two weeks Purdy had 7 and 6 rushing attempts.

The 49ers know K.C.'s weakness is stopping the run, and they'll remain committed to the ground game even if they fall behind. Brock Purdy has stayed Under this total in 15 of 18 games. Look for Purdy to finish with around 30 attempts as Kyle Shanahan stays true to his run-heavy gameplan.

It's telling that sentiment and money is heavily on the Chiefs, yet the odds have not budged. Such skewed numbers generally flip the line, but oddsmakers are bullish on the 49ers as better overall (when firing on all cylinders). Kansas City has the best quarterback, defense, coach and kicker. San Francisco has the best and most explosive playmakers. The Chiefs are 5-0 ATS since Dec. 31; the 49ers are 0-3 ATS since Jan. 7. Underdogs have covered three straight Super Bowls. Andy Reid is dominant with extended rest, even more so with Patrick Mahomes, who is 10-1-1 ATS as an underdog. How will Brock Purdy handle the most pressure he has ever faced (at least figuratively, if not literally)? Give me KC straight up, too.

Chiefs safety Justin Reid made just four tackles in the AFC title game, but this matchup should lead to more production. Reid plays in the box about 30 percent of the time and leads the Chiefs in run stops. With Christian McCaffrey expected to get a massive workload and San Fran's penchant for throwing to the middle of the field, Reid should be heavily involved. The 49ers' offensive approach yields 15.8 tackles and assists per game to opposing safeties -- well above the NFL average.

McCaffrey doesn't hit this number with the frequency that I'd like, but we are in the playoffs now and it's very clear that his heavy involvement is the clearest path to a Super Bowl victory. This is evidenced, in part, by the 20 carry total last week. It's also notable that the only reason CMC didn't get the final three carries of the game is because he tweaked his neck, so that carry total should have been 23. I assume the two weeks off did wonders for CMC's calf and neck and he should get the carries in almost any game script. It's the final game, ride the horse that got you there.

This game can certainly go either way, but with two weeks to prepare, I am expecting a much better effort from the 49ers defense and I expect a healthy 49ers offense to move the ball. The Chiefs have been very good during the playoffs, but I think their lack of playmakers will cost them, especially when you consider the Kelce matchup could be a problem with the 49ers being excellent at the linebacker level. Ultimately, I think it comes down to playmakers and the 49ers win in that department.

The Deebo injury last month could have truly ended the 49ers season, but he was able to come back in time and contribute to the climb to the Super Bowl. With his injury history in mind, I see him being used way more in the passing game where he doesn't need to run between the tackles. That doesn't mean Deebo won't take some punishment in this game, but I think such punishment will be after the catch as opposed to after the carry. I think his rush attempt prop of 2.5 (heavily juiced to the over) is off target, but I'll make that call via the yardage under instead of the rush attempt under.

Let's play point/counterpoint. Point: K.C. has been the better playoff team. Counter: S.F. was the much better regular season team. Point: QB Patrick Mahomes is phenomenal. Counter: The Chiefs' offense was average much of the year. Point: K.C. has momentum. Counter: It could dissipate during the two weeks between games. Point: Coach Andy Reid is an offensive savant. Counter: Ditto, Kyle Shanahan. Point: K.C.'s defense is excellent. Counter: QB Brock Purdy eats up man coverage, which K.C. favors. Point: 'Dogs have covered in three straight Super Bowls. Counter: Favorites are 36-21 straight-up.

The Kansas City Chiefs passing game has been short quick passes. Mahomes has been under this number four of his last five games for a median number of 241. The Chiefs should have success running the football against the San Francisco front four.

The 49ers receivers have a tough matchup against the talented Chiefs secondary, and that means this should be a productive day for Kittle. He's eclipsed 50 receiving yards in nine of his last 12 games, and the two he didn't since the start of December came against teams with questionable cornerback talent (Lions, Commanders). The Chiefs haven't given up much production to tight ends this season but haven't faced many good ones, and many of the better ones they've faced (T.J. Hockenson, Evan Engram, Hunter Henry) have gotten to 50 receiving yards. I believe Kittle will get it done here as well.

Butker is no stranger to the bright lights and big stage of Super Bowl Sunday. I expect the veteran kicker to turn in another near flawless performance and connect on at least two field goals.

Kansas City's defense is susceptible against the run, and McCaffrey is the best running back in the business right now. I expect Kyle Shanahan to lean heavily on his star RB, and in turn I expect a massive day out of McCaffrey on Sunday.

If you follow my DFS picks, you'd already know that I'm high on this matchup for Kelce. I expect him to once again see double-digit targets and finish with 75+ receiving yards on Sunday.

For me, this comes down to best player in the world (Patrick Mahomes) vs. best overall team in the world (49ers). If, and this is a very big 'if' based on how they've been playing of late, the 49ers play up to their potential on the defensive side, there may not be a team that matches up better with Kansas City's offense. It's extremely hard to bet against Mahomes at this point, but am betting on the 49ers to create consistent pressure with a four-man pass rush (similar to what Tampa Bay did in Super Bowl LV), and Christian McCaffrey to have a big day on the other side. The Niners take home the franchise's sixth Super Bowl title.

What better way to cap off a strange season for gambling than with this Super Bowl line, one where the public team, the defending champ, is the underdog. NFL 'dogs normally perform well — in the previous 10 years they went 1,303-1,206-62 ATS — yet this season favorites went 141-130-13 ATS. Should we worry that 75% of the money is on the Chiefs? A public ‘dog is traditionally something to avoid, but as much as I’d love to fade the public, it's not wise here. K.C. has bounced back on 'O' by benching its worst WRs, and its 'D' is top-2. Brock Purdy threw 4 picks in the Christmas spotlight, and now he’s on an even bigger stage … vs. Patrick Mahomes. Grab the 2.5.

Aiyuk has proven to be the 49ers' man-coverage beater, dominating targets with a 29% target per route run rate on the year against man coverage. It's significantly lower -- 21.8% against zone coverage (a shade lower in his past five with Purdy), and with fewer yards per catch and a much lower Yards After Catch per reception average. If the Chiefs play heavy zone coverage, Aiyuk will struggle to put up numbers. Furthermore, just 12 of Aiyuk's 81 catches all year have come when Brock Purdy's gotten the ball out quickly (two seconds or less). If Purdy's pressured as expected, that'll further take opportunities away from Aiyuk. The expectation he'll line up across from shut-down corner L'Jarius Sneed often makes him even less appealing.

I think the Chiefs defense will play a lot of zone coverage and pressure Purdy up front. Theoretically that keeps them from allowing big plays, but giving up a lot of short ones. When Purdy's pressured, which has happened on 40.1% of his dropbacks, throwing to McCaffrey has been his No. 1 option, especially lately (27.6% target per route run rate in his past five meaningful games, 21.1% for the year). Those opportunities should lead to McCaffrey finding room to run against a Chiefs defense that's let up 6.6 yards per catch to running backs this year (which is good), but 7.3 yards per catch to RBs in their past five meaningful games.

The line shouldn't be anywhere near this high. Mahomes has been under 250 yards in 4 of his past 5, and the 49ers haven't allowed 260 yards in 5 of their past 6. The Niners have been good against the pass all year, but in their past four meaningful games they held QBs to 6.4 yards per attempt with 5 completions on 14 pass attempts of 20-plus Air Yards. Mahomes has not been nearly as aggressive in HIS past five games -- his Average Depth of Target sat at 5.7 yards and his deep pass rate was 13.1%, both real low. And, there's a legit shot the Chiefs will be able to run the ball just as the Lions, Packers, Commanders, Ravens and Cardinals did.

San Francisco QB Brock Purdy finally threw an interception in the playoffs two weeks ago versus Detroit Lions. The Chiefs intercepted only 8 passes during the regular season, however their pass defense was top 10 in league. They did intercept two passes in their three playoff games. The Super Bowl brings plenty of pressure. My model has Purdy throwing an interception 6.5 times out of 10 Super Bowls equaling a price of -186.

Jauan Jennings could find himself some opportunity in this matchup. KC’s elite corners should be focused on Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, leaving opportunities for Jennings. While he only had one catch this past weekend, it was a critical 8 yards on the highlight play by Brock Purdy. Look for Jennings to continue to be targeted in these high pressure situations.

Lenoir has logged 5 tackles + assists in both of the 49ers playoff games this season. Lenoir went over this line of 4.5 in 11 games this season, and he is likely to do it again against the Chiefs. KC offensive coordinator Matt Nagy was running lots of screen action against Baltimore, and if the Chiefs are looking to get the ball out of Mahomes hands quickly, Lenoir should have plenty of chance to get tackle and assist chances while defending the short pass game.

Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker has nailed 15 straight field goals and I like him to make at least two indoors in the Super Bowl. His two misses this season came outdoors, at New England and in Kansas City. The 49ers have an above-average red zone defense and Andy Reid has been hesitant to go for it on 4th down. The Chiefs rank 24th in 4th-down attempts this season; they were 31st last year. Butker tied for fifth in made field goals and is 12-8 to the Over on this prop.

The Chiefs defense has been pretty good about limiting big pass plays as of late, with the Ravens managing a few thanks in part to Lamar Jackson's ability to extend plays with his legs. But no Bills player had longer than a 15-yard reception the previous week, and Tyreek Hill managed the only long pass for the Dolphins the week before. The Chiefs didn't allow a 25-yard reception in any of their final three competitive regular-season games. I'm not sure Kyle Shanahan is going to do much attacking downfield with Brock Purdy here, so fading the chances of Aiyuk getting a long reception seems like a solid play.

San Francisco has allowed 40+ rushing yards to Josh Dobbs, Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, and Carson Wentz. Of the other top running QBs they've faced, Daniel Jones and Jalen Hurts did little on the ground. Mahomes is probably in the second tier of scramblers and has rushed five or more times in 6 of his last 11 games. He'll have his chances to make an impact on the ground against a stingy 49ers defense that likely will limit some of KC's downfield chances. I can see Mahomes topping 30 yards rushing in this game so there's some value here.

I like this number for Deebo's receiving yards alone, but just in case, we'll throw 3-6 rushing attempts in for good measure. Kansas City deploys a two-high defense approximately 3/4 of the time, and against that coverage, Samuel has a 35% first read share and 24% target share since November. If you want to have more fun, a +2500 ticket on Samuel to win MVP is absolutely worth a sprinkle.

Everyone seems to be on Kansas City in this game. What am I missing? Wasn’t San Francisco the best team in the league for a long stretch? Do people realize that no team has won back-to-back titles since the '03-'04 Patriots? I expect the San Francisco defense to make a few key plays in the second half and hold off a late Kansas City rally. Somehow, some way, Purdy beats Mahomes. 49ers 27, Chiefs 23.

Samuel accounted for 12 touchdowns this year, but I didn't realize at first glance that five of them came on the ground. If the 49ers are to win, as I predict, Samuel will likely have to play a big role so a touchdown at plus-money odds makes sense to me.

The Chiefs come into this game with great depth in the secondary, and it's hard for me to see Kyle Shanahan making any receivers beyond Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk key parts of the game plan. Jennings has topped eight yards just three times in his last nine games, with one being in the divisional round when he took on an outsized role with Deebo Samuel's injury. After playing 77% of the snaps in the NFC Championship, Samuel should be all systems go with two weeks of rest. The other two games where Jennings saw significant work were blowouts where the team scored more than 40 points, which isn't how this game profiles at all.

The 49ers have survived a few scares to get to the Super Bowl, but their defense has struggled down the stretch. After allowing more than 23 points once in their first 13 games, they've given up at least 29 points in three of their last five competitive games, with both the Cardinals in Week 15 and the Lions last week piling up more than 430 yards of offense behind an excellent rushing attack. The Chiefs have a capable rushing game led by Isiah Pacheco, but also one of the best QBs of all time under center. The Chiefs' scoring offense hasn't been as prolific this year, but I believe they'll get to 24 here.

49ers rookie safety Ji'Ayir Brown, a third-round pick out of Penn State, didn't make much of an impact until All-Pro safety Talanoa Hufanga tore his ACL on Nov. 19 against Tampa Bay. Over his last five games, Brown has made six-plus tackles four times, including 10 in the NFC title game. With Travis Kelce expected to be peppered with targets and with the Chiefs' ability to sustain long drives, I see Brown clearing this prop with ease.

Travis has exceeded this number in all three playoff games, averaging 87.3 yards. Kelce has been performing exceptionally well, averaging over 90 receiving yards with extra preparation time. Kelce will have a lot of success against the 49ers zone defense. This number keeps climbing and would take it up to 79.5. According to my model, his predicted performance is 89.5 yards.

Patrick Mahomes has zero turnover-worthy plays in his last four games. Throughout his career, he has only thrown seven interceptions in 17 postseason games and has not thrown any interceptions in his previous six games. The defense is performing exceptionally well, and Patrick understands he does not need to make risky throws. My model has this at -140!

Brock Purdy played at an MVP level for much of the regular season while throwing multiple TDs in 9 of 16 games. But his performance has dipped in the postseason, completing less than 65% of his passes in both games and throwing only one TD in each. The Chiefs have given up multiple passing TDs just four times this year, with the last occurrence more than two months ago. Even if the moment isn't too big for Purdy, the defense he's facing may just be too tough to throw multiple TDs against.

Travis Kelce finished the regular season with fewer than 1,000 receiving yards for the first time since 2015, but the break he got in the regular-season finale seems to have done him good. He's topped 70 receiving yards in all three postseason games, giving him a streak of 12 straight playoff games with at least 70 receiving yards. He'll be up against a 49ers defense that has given up big games to elite TEs featured in their offenses (T.J. Hockenson and Trey McBride in the regular season, Sam LaPorta in the NFC Championship). As Patrick Mahomes' most reliable target, Kelce should get a lot of work and post another big yardage day against a vulnerable defense.

The 49ers offense finished the regular season with the most points per drive in the league. But the Chiefs defense ranked third in the same metric and have been playing their best football in the playoffs, where they held two other offenses in the top five of points per drive to seven and 10 points. Only one team has topped 24 points against the Chiefs all year, and it's possible the moment is too big for Brock Purdy or rookie 49ers kicker Jake Moody, costing the team valuable points. With how the Chiefs have played games this season, I'd be surprised if this was a shootout similar to last year's Super Bowl, even with the talent San Francisco has on offense.

Patrick Mahomes has gone six straight playoff games without throwing an interception, and I like that streak to continue in the Super Bowl. He knows he has an elite defense so he doesn't have to force things. In Mahomes' 17 playoff games, he has thrown seven INTs and owns a miniscule 1.7 percent turnover-worthy play rate. That's even better than his career regular-season rate (2.8 percent).

"Juice" is perhaps the league's most skilled Fullback. Beyond his elite blocking abilities, Juszczyk has been a reliable pass-catching option for Brock Purdy. Juszczyk has logged a reception in 4 of the past 5 games. When the 49ers star-studded cast of receivers all find themselves covered, the defense forgets about "Juice." Look for Juszczyk to come up with a clutch catch.

At +625 odds, I have to sprinkle this! We know how creative Andy Reid's playbook can get, and in the Superbowl I expect him to have a few tricks up his sleeve. Look for a potential rush attempt from "Full House" formation, or possibly on a 4th and short to Kelce playing the Fullback spot. Kelce did not have a rush attempt all season long, until last week against the Ravens. The Chiefs may go back to it.

This total opened at 47.5... and it hasn't budged. More than 60% of the public bets thus far have gone towards the Over, but the number has stayed firm. It is no surprise to see the Over as the public side, especially in a game featuring Patrick Mahomes and the potent offense of the 49ers. Considering that, a total of 47.5 feels curiously low... and that is why I like it! San Francisco should go run heavy and look to control possession, and keep Mahomes off the field. The Chiefs may look to feed RB Isiah Pacheco as well. A run-heavy game with two elite defenses will keep the total Under.

In San Francisco's two playoff games this season, Purdy has cleared this total of 12.5. When the play breaks down, Purdy comes up in the clutch using his legs. He is likely to see a good deal of pressure from Chiefs DE's Chris Jones and George Karlaftis. When that pressure comes, I expect Purdy to play on his instincts and take off a few times in this game.

Christian McCaffrey is going to be bet on heavily in this game, and for good reason. However, with McCaffrey's rushing yards total set near 90 yards, I'd rather target the Over on his receiving yards prop. The Chiefs will surely look to stack the box and stop the potent 49ers rush attack. This will give McCaffrey opportunities in the pass game. McCaffrey had 5+ targets in 11 games this season. Purdy will check down and screen to McCaffrey early and often.

Andy Reid trusts his defense to great lengths, as displayed in the AFC title game. He can skew conservative and he has one of the best kickers in NFL history, who has great range, and is 28/32 on FG in the playoffs and 61/64 on extra points. Butker loves this stadium and has tried 23 kicks there since it opener, more than anywhere but Arrowhead. He's 4/5 FG and 18/18 (XP) there and has tried 2+ FGs in 5 of the last 6 Chiefs playoff games and 8 of the last 12. He's tried 2+ in 3 of 5 road/neutral playoff games. SF has 37 FGA against in 19 total games (2/G). We know KC has RZ issues this season. Reid will be risk-averse.

We have been keeping a close eye on the "total" for the SB and wondering how it might move, but we suspect if we are to look "under" as we are inclined, we might not get a much better price than this 47.5. Our expectation is for this game to pace rather slowly, much like the Giants vs. Patriots Super Bowls from several years ago. Kansas City's vastly underrated defense has helped carve an 11-4-1 "under" run for the Chiefs, while this version of the Patrick Mahomes offense moves in much smaller bites than in past season. Harrison Butker is apt to become very busy in KC games and we expect the SB to be no different. Play 49ers-Chiefs "Under"

George Kittle's median receiving yards per game this season was 67.5. His numbers at home were far better than his numbers on the road but I'm expecting a controlled environment to be a big help to Brock Purdy and George Kittle. Kansas City has made it clear they will double Brandon Aiyuk was much as possible. This will leave Purdy's safety valve Kittle open. Over for 1.5 units

Noah Gray, the third-year tight end out of Duke, is someone Patrick Mahomes can trust. Gray has dropped one pass all season. He got five targets in the AFC title game. When looking at his 18-game sample (excluding Week 18 when Patrick Mahomes did not play), Gray has gone Over this yardage line 12 times. He could clear this prop on his first reception, but even if he doesn't, I like him to catch multiple passes in the Super Bowl.

Deebo is no longer a big surprise when running the football. His rushing attempt have gone down the last three years. In the playoffs six of his first seven games went over this number easily. The last four games Deebo has been under 15.5. He was under in 6 of his last nine regular season games. Kansas City will be well prepared after allowing 53 yards on 3 carries in Super Bowl 54.

Deebo Samuel caught eight of nine targets for 89 yards in the NFC title game. This is a tougher matchup for sure. But Samuel looks healthy and while the Chiefs have lockdown outside corners, Samuel lines up all over the formation. Look for Samuel to have a much bigger impact on the Super Bowl than Brandon Aiyuk.

Brock Purdy and Brandon Aiyuk have not looked on the same page through two postseason games Aiyuk has 14 targets which he has turned into just 6 receptions for 100 yards, with 50 of those yards coming on a fluke play where the football bounced off the defenders helmet. Then you factor in that these games came against Detroit and GB, both two subpar pass defenses that rank poorly. Aiyuk will have hi hands full against an elite KC pass defense that surrendered the 4th fewest yards to opposing WRs, ranks in the top 3 in nearly every defensive passing metric (EPA per dropback, dropback success %, 1st read EPA). Chiefs DC Spags has the best defense he has had while coaching in KC.

Maybe Aiyuk will catch another 50 yard pass off a defender’sface mask…but I’m betting not. Plus, in the SB it would likely have to bounce off two defenders as Aiyuk will see doubles. Under

It's been a Matterhorn bobsled ride thru the playoffs for the Niners. Credit the poise of Brock Purdy and the ability of his playmakers to deliver in the clutch. Of course Patrick Mahomes has been doing the same for years and has beaten the 49ers each of the last two times he faced them, including in the SB four years ago. Both of those, however, came against Jimmy Garoppolo's SF, and the collection of big-play threats on the 49ers side figures to be a handful for KC to slow down. This might be the best Chiefs defense of the Andy Reid era, but other than Mahomes and PK Harrison Butker, not sure where KC has an edge. Play Niners

The Ravens let KC off the hook by refusing to run the ball, but that's the way to attack them and Kyle Shanahan knows it. There should be opportunities for others besides CMC, and I like this play over guys like Mason or Mitchell. Deebo shows up big away from home, SF runs more on road (with Kittle more of a blocker). 11 personnel is a change-of-pace run package for this heavy team; Deebo avg 7.1/carry out of 11 (most on team besides Purdy). Deebo avg 3 rush for 21 yards on road/2-8 home. Is over this in 5 of 8 away from home. Was hurt in GB game; other 10 playoff games avg 5 carries/G at 5.7 YPC. Shoulder better with 2 weeks off

We like the Chiefs to win straight out but I'll take the two points as well. They have the superior coach, QB, defense and kicker. It's a stadium they know well. They played the far tougher schedule in the far tougher conference and are 4th in the NFL at 9-5-1 ATS since Week 6, while SF is 27th at 5-9 ATS in that span. They will protect the football and they know how to take care of business in the biggest game of all, unlike their opponent

The Kansas City Chiefs have played the most demanding strength of schedule this season, while the 49ers ranked 12th. Kansas City is ranked fifth in third-down defense, eighth in red zone defense, and sixth in special teams DVOA. Conversely, San Francisco is ranked 27th in third-down defense, 14th in red zone defense, and 25th in special teams. Patrick Mahomes is 10-1-1 ATS as an underdog in his career and should feast against the 49ers zone defense. Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo are difficult to conquer with extra preparation time. Kansas City is 4-0 at Allegiant Stadium and should feel right at home. The Chiefs will win back-to-back Super Bowls for the first time since New England accomplished the feat in 2003-04.

Kansas City has the better QB, better defense, and a better coaching staff. Look for Mahomes and company to limit possessions again in this one as they continue to have long 6-9 minute drives. Chris Jones and the Chiefs' pass rush will be a menace to Brock Purdy, who has really struggled with turnover-worthy plays so far. I make the Chiefs -1.1 favorites, so I will happily take the two points.

We told you Big Red will stick with the heavy personnel usage even against the Ravens top ranked D with their great LBs. And he did, using 2 or more TEs on 45% of the snaps. Reid in 13 Personnel 19% in playoffs (7% regular season). Gray cashed this Sunday and tied a season-high with 5 TAR and had 2nd highest in TAR% of season. He's played 59 more snaps than TE3 (Bell) in playoffs and Mahomes trusts him. Kelce will be smothered after catching all 11 targets. Easy pop passes to TE2 gets us cash again. Hits in 8 of last 11 games played away from Arrowhead this season.

Juice has 68 catches over three seasons (including playoffs); four were under this (6%). He averages 10 YPC in that span and tends to show up more often when the season is on the line (like last week or like the 49ers last SB trip (3 catches for 39 yards). The way this is priced if you believe he is going to catch a ball (-150), then the odds are overwhelming that barring it being a 1-yard TD catch, that reception will top two yards, for much better value. KC allowed 5 more catches to RBs last week, they've allowed 3rd most since Week 8, and he runs a lot of RB routes (and TE). The underneath stuff is a problem for a 2-deep defense.

The 49ers defense comes into this game with a clear directive: slow down Patrick Mahomes. That should leave plenty of room to run for a guy in Pacheco who has had at least 15 carries in eight of his last nine games. At his season average of 4.6 yards per carry, a 15-carry workload translates to 69 yards. But then you look at a 49ers team that has struggled to stop the run in recent weeks, giving up 100-plus rushing yards in five of their last six games after doing so just three times in 13 games prior. I expect this line to climb to the 75.5 range as I'd expect Pacheco to top 80 rushing yards here.

If you've read my Rashee Rice props then you know the 49ers weakness on defense is stopping the run. The LIons ran for 5.1 yards per carry against the Niners.

Rice's median receptions per game on the regular season was 4.5. He did go over this number in two of three playoff games however he was targeted 21 times and caught 16 passes total in those two over games. San Francisco's weakness on defense is stopping the run. I think Isaih Pacheco will be offensive weapon #3, with Mahomes #1 and Kelce #2. Rice is #4.

Rice went under in two of three playoff games and his median number for the season is 58 yards. The 49ers weakness on defense is against the run and the Chiefs should really take avantage.

In the controled environment of Allegiant Stadium the 49ers offense should feel right at home. Aiyuk's median yards per game at home was 113 and in all games it was 67. The 49ers have so many weapons that Aiyuk is that one guy that always seems open.

When the games get this important the best teams put the game in the hands of their best players. CMC should have more than 20 carries in this game, he had 20+ carries in three of the 49ers first four games of the season. He had 20 rushing attempt last week.

Purdy has easily topped this number in both playoff games so far and had eight regular-season games with at least three carries. Plus, we get a possible kneeldown.

Rice medians about 10.8 yards per catch during his ascent to prominence in KC. Thus, I project he needs 7 catches to eclipse this number. I’ll play against that as even last week, his 8 catches came when Mahomes has 30 completions with a 89% completion percentage to Rice. Under.

Rice was at 6.5 before the AFC title game and he caught 8. BUT it took PMahomes 30 completions for him to get that 8. It’s is unlikely he will replicate 30 completions, yet Rice still at 6.5. Plus SF defends the big reciever VERY well. Under.

I get this isn't the best Chiefs passing game of the Mahomes/Reid era, but this is a stadium the Chiefs know well, perfect conditions for pitch and catch and plenty of time to prepare. Mahomes has played 6 games indoors and been held below 27 once (17 at Indy in '22). SF D has issues and play action could be a real problem for them in this game. KC was able to sit on the ball at Baltimore in scoring 17, but I don't see that luxury here. I also think KC defense can provide a short field or two for quick scoring. And they have a stud kicker. 49ers points allowed last 5 games they played starters - 29, 33, 10 (WSH), 21, 31

The trust is only building with Marquez Valdes-Scantling. He's stepped up the past two games, especially in high pressure situations, showing Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes trust him despite the regular season. There is a solid chance this could cash on one reception, I'd look into playing his longest reception prop too. The Sportsline Model projects him for 23 yards. With Rashee Rice looking a little less explosive the past two weeks, there could be some more targets for MVS.

Baltimore didnt run the ball on this defense but it's very vulnerable and Kyle Shanahan won't make the same mistake. Running left behind HOF tackle Trent Williams is a sure thing, and KC is 28th in the NFL allowing almost 5 yards/carry to that side (and they see a lot of it, 6th most). Shanahan knows his pass protection is suspect and his QB is still figuring some things out. He will lean heavily into the run game and CMC in outside zone rushes. CMC is over this in 7 of last 8 games. I don't see them down by 17 like last time out, changing game script to pass-heavy, and this KC secondary is far superior to its run front. Lot of 2 deep

This keeps cashing and the value will plummet, There is no FB or QB who poaches his drives late. He is the physical runner who gets multiple cracks at the endzone and this has been money. He has this in 6 of the last 7 games with 8 total TDs in that span. An option in the pass game, too. The interior of this OL can push the 49ers around. Andy Reid will lean into this. He wants to eat clock, avoid turnovers and run the ball.

This Patrick Mahomes/Kelce combination is beyond historic. Even with a shapeshifter like Kyle Hamilton - a body type/defender the 49ers don't have - Kelce shined last week with the season on the line. Mahomes can put it in spots where only this TE can get it, they are in peak form and Kelce will be fresher than ever for this game. This has hit 18 times in 17 games together. Caught all 11 of his targets vs the best D in the NFL, on the road, in sloppy game conditions. Mahomes will feed him again here, and SF slot/middle defense ain't great. Even the 49ers LBs will have issues here. I like how TEs have attacked them the last 6 weeks.

Steve Spagnuolo with all this time to prepare, and some very interesting film to watch on this young QB dating back to the Ravens game. His blitz principles can mimic some of what Ravens DC Mike Macdonald did to contuse and turnover Purdy, SF has a leaky OL and Purdy's abb accuracy has been shaky, especially early in games and this is the biggest game of all. Spags will have some Cover-3 and Cover-6 looks to pick up where others have left off. They can get some tipped balls vs the right side of the line. Chiefs corners are stout.

Andy Reid knows his tackles are limited in pass protection and as much as the 49ers pass rush has suffered in last six weeks, they still have some dudes. I see ample opportunity for Pacheco to control the clock for what has become a TOP team. and get to 70 rushing yards in the process. He will have more explosive runs against this D than at Baltimore and also better field conditions to do so. I am banking on 20-plus carries and figure this number grows by kickoff, especially if Chiefs get some good news on the injury front. Pacheco wasn't himself at Baltimore but two weeks off will make a huge difference

20 is the new 15 with Andy Reid in terms of running the football. He started running it much more during the second half last season and has ridden it since Week 13 when Pacheco got healthy and seems intent on getting him 20 carries. Even like on Sunday when it wasn't really going anywhere. They can get Joe Thuney back for this game and really road-grade a 49ers D that stinks against middle runs - KC leads NFL in middle run percentage since Week 13, and that's all Pacheco.

The 49ers played man coverage on just 142 snaps this season. Defensive coordinator Steve Wilks plays a soft zone and takes away the bomb with two deep safeties. Patrick Mahomes was much better against zone this season and has embraced the safe, short-passing game. It leads to long Chiefs' drives. Look for Mahomes to come out throwing and go Over 36.5 attempts.

Brock Purdy has rushed 11 times in two playoff games, and I like him to easily clear 10.5 rushing yards in the Super Bowl. The Chiefs love to blitz, leaving their corners in man coverage with their backs turned. Lamar Jackson held the ball too long in the pocket in the AFC title game, passing up scrambles that could have extended drives. Look for Purdy to hit those gaps a couple times and clear this number.

This is a different Chiefs team. They don't beat you down with a ton of points. They do it with their defense, as they made the Ravens look discombobulated. On their first two drives, the Chiefs methodically moved down the field for touchdowns. Patrick Mahomes gets eight yards at a time and keeps the other team off the field. I can see him doing that again. He's the best who's ever done it. I'm also betting against Brock Purdy, like I did in the NFC title game. His running won the game, but otherwise, he was a little fortunate. Mahomes knows how to manage the game, and that's what will win this matchup.

The 1.5s are disappearing so locking this in on FanDuel. This comes down to how well the Chiefs' defense, specifically corners Trent McDuffie and L'Jarius Sneed, are playing. Did you see Lamar Jackson hold the ball forever as no one got open? Unlike Detroit, K.C. will turn Brock Purdy's turnover-worthy plays into actual turnovers. The Chiefs led the NFL in batted-down passes and Chris Jones, Charles Omenihu and George Karlaftis each had one in the first half at Baltimore. I loved the late throw to Marquez Valdes-Scantling to clinch the AFC title. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid already knew they could trust Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice and Isiah Pacheco. That play has to boost MVS' confidence ahead of a close Super Bowl matchup.

Brandon Aiyuk has struggled through two postseason games despite having beatable matchups. Outside of a flukey 51 yard reception, Aiyuk has mustered just 13 targets, 5 receptions, for 50 yards. Now he will face an elite KC pass defense coordinated by Steve Spagnuolo who has done a tremendous job limiting plays in the splash zone. Purdy and Aiyuk do not appear to be on the same page and I believe it's going to be difficult to get behind this vaunted Chiefs secondary.

I've just been so impressed with the way KC has played throughout the postseason. They're balanced, Travis Kelce is still dominating over the middle of the field, they have an excellent young WR in Rashee Rice. Then you pair that with the best defense that Patrick Mahomes has had access to in his career. The 49ers are undoubtedly a talented roster but nearly lost to the Packers and the Lions. I have a lot more confidence in Patrick Mahomes than I do Brock Purdy. I will ride with the Chiefs.

The Chiefs are in the Super Bowl for the fourth time in five years, and they got there by winning two straight road games as underdogs. Yet the market is making them a 'dog on a neutral field? The 49ers may have been the better team in the regular season, but they peaked prior to the playoffs, where they've scraped by at home twice as big favorites. The Chiefs are playing their best ball right now, with their receivers shaking off early-season drops to pile up first downs. Patrick Mahomes vs. Brock Purdy, and the Chiefs have the better defense and are catching points? We know what to do.

Mahomes as the dog again. Grab it. 9-0-1 ATS on road. Chiefs have covered 5 straight and 49ers once again failed to last week. SF is 5-9 ATS since Week 6, only ATL, LAC, PHI and NYJ have fewer covers in that span (including playoffs). Best unit in this game is the Chiefs defense, and they will be prepared. Experience matters in the SB, especially at QB, and somehow Mahomes is already here for the 4th time. Andy Reid showing a willingness to burn clock and win in the teens Sun, sticking with run even when it wasn't working, speaks volumes. And Pacheco will be healthier and OL will be healthier and they will run the ball downfield, up the gut, on an overrated defense.