Travis Kelce is far and away the likeliest candidate to replace the Rashee Rice’s production. Kelce operates in the same areas of the field. I also think this is a sneaky good matchup as the Saints play the 7th most man coverage in the league. Even at his advanced age, Kelce is still very good against man coverage. He should be the focal point of the Chiefs passing attack.

Kareem Hunt got 14 carries in his first game back with the Chiefs, and is expected to start on Monday Night Football. With rookie Carson Steele losing two fumbles already, I'm expecting Hunt to lead the way with at least 12 carries.

New Orleans is 3-1 to the over thus far. This will be the best defense the Saints have faced all season. Kansas City is holding their opponents to 18 points on the season while the Saints defense holds their opponents to 17.5 points per game. Both teams have some injuries to key offensive players and even when Kansas City was healthy their games still went under the total in three of four, relying heavily on their defense. The under is 8-3 when the Chiefs are at home since the beginning of last season.

I expect Kansas City to commit to slowing down Alvin Kamara, which should open things up for Olave. The former Ohio State standout has developed into Derek Carr's favorite target, and I expect him to have another solid game on MNF.

Kansas City's injuries at the wide receiver position have been well-documented. I'm all over Kelce on the DFS side as well. I expect him to see double-digit targets for the first time this season, and notch 70+ yards against the Saints.

Kelce hasn't been his usual dominant self, but he isn't washed up and he showed signs of life in Week 4. The future Hall of Famer has yet to find the end zone this season, but I think that changes on Monday night.

When Rashee Rice went down, Watson appeared to be the guy Kansas City turned to. Watson played 43 out of 62 offensive snaps for the Chiefs in Week 4, and if that happens again I like his chances of getting to 3 receptions on MNF. He has yet to go over this number in 2024, but at +154 this is worth some risk.

Butker has attempted at least two field goals in every game this season, and I believe he'll have at least two tries on Monday night. The Saints are a quality defensive team, and the Chiefs could have some issues in the red zone without Rashee Rice and Isiah Pacheco. I don't love the price, but I feel pretty confident this bet cashes.

Taking the points and backing the Saints is a popular play here, and on paper it's pretty easy to see why. That said, I've had to learn the hard way never to underestimate a team that has Patrick Mahomes playing quarterback and Andy Reid calling plays. Mahomes is 8-1 all-time (straight-up) in games against Derek Carr, and in my eyes, the location of this game (Arrowhead Stadium) is worth at least three points. I'd argue that Mahomes/Reid are worth at least another three points. Kansas City keeps finding ways to win, and I think they'll do it again on MNF. Chiefs by 6+.

The Under is 78-49-1 in isolated prime-time games over the past three seasons, which might help explain what appears to be a steam on the Under again. However, the Saints are the NFL's tops coring team at 31.8 ppg, bolstered by 91 combined points in the first two weeks. The Chiefs are holding steady at 23 ppg but can keep pace when needed and we should expect improved execution following a relatively sluggish outing in their win over the Chargers last week.

Everyone is on the Saints ... and there are good reasons: Chiefs' dearth of playmakers, their 0-4 ATS streak on Mondays and their relative inability to cover the last few years. Except there's a funny thing happening this season: Kansas City is 3-1 ATS with its lone failure against Joe Burrow. The Chiefs stout D is allowing 18 points per game, and we now know that early Saints explosion was circumstantial. Travis Kelce and JuJu Smith-Schuster should step up in Rashee Rice’s absence, and both Kareem Hunt and Samaje Perine are ready to play. (Remember: KC won the Super Bowl with a far worse receiving corps.) Derek Carr is on an 0-5 ATS primetime streak. Would prefer this at -4 but still worth a play.

When skill positions on one side and the offensive line on the other are depleted we're presented with a good recipe for an Under; that's what we have tonight. Kansas City goes into battle without three expected gamebreakers before the season as Rashee Rice, Hollywood Brown and Isiah Pacheco are all on IR, paving the way for rookie WR Xavier Worthy as WR1. Meanwhile on the other side the New Orleans OL has been gutted by the injury bug and is going against a Chiefs DL that's generating pressure at an elite rate. Look for both offenses to move the ball methodically with sustained drives and short controlled passing attacks tonight, leading to fewer explosive plays and allowing us to go Under the posted total.

Patrick Mahomes is 38-43-3 ATS (47 percent) as a favorite of more than three points career. Mahomes has had a least one turnover in nine straight regular-season games, the longest streak of his career. The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four Monday games, all as favorites, and lost two outright. Underdogs of five or more points are 19-5-1 (79%) ATS this season. New Orleans is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games as a road underdog.

Kamara has gotten an enormous number of Harry’s, but that has largely been because of game script. For example, in two of the four games the Saints got out to enormous leads and pounded the run. I’m projecting that won’t be the case tonight.

The Kansas City Chiefs remain one of two teams left that are undefeated. With all their injuries on the offensive side of the football, it has caused the offense to look average. On top of that Patrick Mahomes has just six touchdowns to five interceptions. Yet, this Chiefs team showed in their Super Bowl run last year that they don’t need their offense to be elite to get wins and covers. Look for the defense to set their offense with manageable drives and keep the Saints offense in check. Take the Chiefs as the favorite.

A year ago we would never see this line, let alone this price. I have a very hard time believing we don't see a touchdown pass between Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce, and that gets us halfway there. Kareem Hunt had 14 TDs in 2018 (Mahomes’ first season as a starter) and half were receiving TDs, he brings back that element from the RB position they had a few seasons ago with Jerrick McKinnon who had 9 REC TDs out of the backfield. Give me a long overdue Kelce touchdown and a creative RB set.

We're dealing with a serious pass rush here. The Chiefs aren’t scoring much but the defense has been awesome. Derek Carr had 28 completions vs the Falcons but ATL does not have a good pass rush and that was a wild game with muffed punt TDs, tipped pick 6 TDs, etc.. Prior to the ATL game Carr was 14 for 25, 11 for 16 and 19 for 23… they are leaning hard on the run with 34 rush attempts per game vs just 25 pass attempts. The Sportsline Model puts him at 18.

Kamara has been elite this season, having not rushed for less than 77 yards in any of his team's four games. But Kansas City has dominated their opponents' running backs, holding all below 50 yards thus far. Expect Kamara to do damage through the air (I lean over 4.5 catches) but not top 60 yards rushing tonight.

I absolutely love the Saints in this spot. They have lost two in a row by a combined five points after winning their first two games by 62 points combined. Kansas City is without their best running back and wide receiver and though they're undefeated thus far, the Chiefs haven't looked like their usual selves. I want to pick the Saints outright but I'll happily take the points instead. Chiefs 20, Saints 19.

The Chiefs want to take the game slow with long drives and frustrate the opponent. The Saints have gone over the total four of their last five games and three times they’ve gone over this total by themselves. I've seen Derek Carr do well against the Chiefs at Kansas City and I think he has a good game again scoring in bunches. I think the Saints are probably going to win so that means it's going to be a high scoring game. Over is the play.

The Chiefs have won 10 straight and they've covered nine of those games. And all of those games have been played the same way: Chiefs ball control, run the ball, take time off the clock, short passing game, and good defense. All the results are in the 20s or below with nothing over 30 points scored. It's incredible the way Patrick Mahomes manages his team. But here are the Saints who started to season out on fire with two 40-point wins. I think the way to beat the Chiefs is to go at them hard. Force the Chiefs to do something they don't want to. I've seen Derek Carr do that with the Raiders before and it was quite effective. Saints to win.

Carr has skewed passing numbers because this team had two uncharacteristic blowouts to start the year. This lead them to have a misleading amount of running plays. I project Carr at 23 completions

I typically defer to passing completions over passing attempts, but I don't see a ton of efficiency coming from Derek Carr tonight. Saints should have some trouble running the ball and are likely to need to throw it behind their tattered offensive line. I expect the ball to come out quickly, but I'm still not banking on efficiency as this Chiefs defensive line will put the pressure on Carr and his completion percentage typically falls when pressured.

These teams seem to do nothing other than play close games (even the Chiefs), so these added points the oddsmakers are providing the Saints look awfully tempting. KC's offense (sans Tyreek Hill) is hardly as flashy as a few years ago, though Patrick Mahomes is controlling the games in a more subdued fashion these days as the Chiefs are content to play control and grind away, letting Steve Spagnuolo's underrated defense dictate the tempo. Yet the Saints, with Derek Carr pulling the trigger, have too many weapons to get boat-raced, and after two brutal defeats in the final seconds need a win to get back above .500. Besides, patterns for both teams suggest this one ought to stay close. Play Saints

I’m betting the Under again for an additional unit, now that the total has moved through the key number of 43. The Saints will now be missing gadget player Taysom Hill, and the Chiefs will not have RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire to help contribute to the Chiefs “running back by committee” without Isiah Pacheco. New Orleans will get defensive leader LB Demario Davis back which is huge. It’s Primetime and the Over has gotten more than 80% of the public betting tickets thus far… you know what to do.

The Saints passing numbers are deflated as in two games they got out to huge leads and stopped throwing the ball. Olave is their best WR option and with more completions in the forecast I’m going over

Harrison Butker tried a 65-yarder field goal last week, his first miss of the season. He only made one field goal, but in the previous three games he made seven. Now the Chiefs face a Saints' defense that leads the NFL in red-zone TD percentage (22.2). Look for Butker to make at least two field goals Monday night.

The Chiefs were favored by the same number against Cincinnati, projected to be a much better team than New Orleans, so we should love Kansas City here. But I find myself gravitating toward a Saints side with an underrated defense that has surrendered four offensive TDs, including zero last week against a Falcons squad that lit up the scoreboard on Thursday. The Chiefs offense, which is now down its expected top two WRs and top RB, hasn't looked in sync all year, with Patrick Mahomes throwing nearly as many picks (5) as TDs (6). The Chiefs defense could dominate the Saints O-line in this game and I could still see a low-scoring cover here against a Super Bowl champ that is again somewhat sleepwalking early.

The Chiefs, to their credit, continue to win -- but not by much. Their four Ws this season have come by a combined 20 points. Their last seven outings have been decided by single digits. Now they must find a fill-in for WR Rashee Rice, who joins RB Isiah Pacheco and WR Marquise Brown in injury rehab. Superman QB Patrick Mahomes cannot do it all. The Saints have been gold on the road, covering in seven of the last eight. Two blowout wins to open the season sent a signal on how good they can be.

Kelce got forcefed last week like we figured and we loved his props in that matchup. And while the Saints pass D is legit, they have some issues with TEs. Since the start of last season they are 26th allowing 11 yards/completion to TEs. Patrick Mahomes is down even more weapons now and Kelce is coming off his best game in a while. These two are adept at reading zone Ds the same way and finding seams. Kelce is over this in 6 of his last 10 games and I suspect Kelce features in Andy Reid's early-game script again.

The Chiefs loss of WR Rashee Rice puts this offense in a weird place. Rice was among the league leaders in receiving yards, targets and usage rate. Although the defending champs have gotten out to a 4-0 start, they certainly haven't played championship caliber football. The Saints offense under new OC Klint Kubiak has gotten all the praise, but their defense has quietly impressed as well. This is a gritty unit that can get stops. 'Questionable' tags on Saints LB's Demario Davis and Willie Gay are a bit concerning, but if they both play this line could move towards New Orleans by game time. More than 90% of public money is on the Chiefs ML. Sounds like trouble. Give me the Saints with the points.

The Chiefs lost their best receiver on Sunday in a tough win over the Chargers, and that lowers the ceiling on an offense that has yet to get going this season. The Saints have a very good defense that has surrendered just four TDs in four games, including none against the Falcons despite the 26-24 loss. On the other side, an elite Chiefs defensive line should have their way with a Saints O-line that struggled severely against another top defensive front in Week 3. I'm getting in on this Under now as I think this has to close no higher than 40.5.

Chiefs RZ woes are real and Saints have a top 5 RZD since ’22. Chiefs still sorting through OL and without their feature back and top WR. Their defense is the true star. Chiefs 8-3 to the under at home since '23; games average 41 points. Saints 6-4 to the under on road in that span, averaging 44 points. Patrick Mahomes is 15-10 to the under vs the NFC and 6-3-1 in last 10. Game totals: 36, 34, 73, 31, 51, 47, 38, 46, 47, 39. Saints 11-4 under in last 15 vs AFC, with average score of 38.6. KC game totals are under 40 last two weeks. Are there still any Derek Carr truthers out there? Losing Taysom Hill would stymie Saints RZ attack.