Mahomes has only failed to throw for 2 or more TDs four times in 16 career playoff appearances, and one of those goose eggs came in his postseason debut. With a Super Bowl berth on the line, a minimum of 2 TD passes feels like a near certainty for the game's top passer.

Veteran bruiser Gus Edwards has been both a TD magnet and a reliable grinder between the tackles this season. However, the versatile Hill has shown a little more burst and was the featured back last week against the Texans. Hill provides more potential for a pop play in the running game and he should see enough touches to clip this total.

Baltimore is clearly the most complete team in the AFC. The books are giving Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs three and the hook, (+3.5) which seems too good to be true considering Mahomes is now 9-1-1 ATS as an underdog. All great trends must end, and this one feels like bait. I won't let that -3.5 line scare me off the favorite. The Chiefs are dealing with injuries to some key players (best OL Joe Thuney is out, RB Isiah Pacheco battling through turf toe, LB Willie Gay playing through neck injury, etc). Kansas City has leaned on their Top-5 defense all season, but lately they have been unable to stop the run. They won't have enough to get past Lamar and the Ravens today.

The Ravens have been the NFL’s most dominant team, while the Chiefs enter with the postseason pedigree and a quarterback-coach combination in Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid that always gets it done. Baltimore has been excellent ATS; as a favorite of five points or less, it is 7-1 ATS. There has perhaps been no bigger Chiefs’ backer over the last few seasons than your’s truly, but there is plenty working in the Ravens’ favor, including weaponry, significant turnover differential and health. It was one thing for Kansas City to find some offense against Miami and Buffalo; it will be quite another to do it against Baltimore. The hook hurts as this could well be a FG game; still, I would take this up to -4.

Tough spot for the Chiefs going on the road against a Baltimore Ravens team that appears to be peaking. Not only that, the Ravens are getting healthier on both sides of the ball while the Chiefs have a key injury on their offensive line. The body of work for the Chiefs this season has been underwhelming and they've had the benefit of facing two playoff opponents ravaged by defensive injuries (Dolphins and Bills). It'll be an entirely different ballgame against the Ravens.

The more you watch the tape, the more you see how the Ravens have advantageous matchups across the board. Combined with their ability to play any type of game offensively necessary to win, they can pick apart the Chiefs stout defense and find success.

Baltimore is the better team and in much better health. While the Chiefs rue the absence of injured All-Pro guard Joe Thuney and worry about the status of several other integral players, the Ravens welcome back All-Pro tight end Mark Andrews after a brief respite. The Chiefs' offense, shaky most of the season, must solve a defense that tops the league in sacks and takeaways while allowing an NFL low of 16.5 ppg. The Ravens have been favored by four or fewer points six times this season and covered every time.

The veteran TE finished third on the Ravens in receiving despite missing the last seven games of the regular season because of injury. He clipped this number in all nine games in which he was healthy, and Baltimore's recent history suggests capable backup Isaiah Likely becomes an afterthought when Andrews is on the field. If Andrews is anywhere close to full health, he should easily clip this total.

There are those who believe, out of principle, you should take the points on the Patrick Mahomes side whenever they are offered and it's a tough argument to dispute. The Ravens are an understandable favorite as they appear to have lapped the field against upper-tier opponents, with blowout wins over the 49ers, Lions and Dolphins. But Mahoes is 3-1 against the Ravens, with the lone defeat coming by one point. Look for this game to be decided by a short key number either way.

Mahomes has at least 37 pass attempts in 11 of 18 games this season. And, for what it's worth, 37-plus pass attempts in 5 of 6 losses. In 17 games against Baltimore (excluding Week 18's meaningless game), opponents average 37.3 pass attempts per game. Pair all of that with Isiah Pacheco playing at less than 100% and the Chiefs offensive line missing starting guard Joe Thuney and it's reasonable to expect Kansas City to struggle to run and be forced to lean on Mahomes. When they're tied or behind in a game Mahomes is in, they average a pass play 66.7% of the time. If they're in a close one or trailing against the Ravens, Mahomes will take over.

If we don't count the Ravens' Week 18 meaningless game, then Hill has surpassed 7.5 rushes in 2 of his past 3. It's helped that he's seemingly become the Ravens' most-utilized RB, playing over 50% of the snaps in 3 of his past 4 (2 of past 3 if you remove Week 18). He was much more explosive than Gus Edwards last week and should be able to take advantage of a Chiefs run defense that has struggled against power-gap blocking in their past four meaningful games (5.4 yards per carry). Hill has averaged 5.4 yards per rush in power-gap, which is 2.0 yards per carry higher than Edwards. Hill was over this total last week … in the early fourth quarter.

Kelce has at least 70 yards in each of his past two, both win-or-go-home games where Patrick Mahomes leaned on him. I expect Baltimore to play a lot of zone this week, just as they have recently. They've allowed some pretty big numbers recently to TEs -- when lined up in the slot or out wide, the Ravens have let up an insane 21.1 yards per catch in their past four meaningful games. Both Buffalo and Miami were better versus TEs and Kelce ripped both of them. It helps that Kelce has a higher target share against zone (21.8%) than man (15.5%). And if you dig history, then you'll like that Kelce has at least 73 yards in each of five career games against Baltimore.

Both the Ravens and the Chiefs have found success this season behind the classic winning football fundamentals- A strong run game and a strong defense. The Chiefs secondary has been excellent, so Baltimore should look to go run-heavy, putting together long drives that keep Patrick Mahomes off the field and eat up clock. This Ravens defense has been elite all season, and now they get back veteran CB Marlon Humphrey. Rain and 10+ MPH winds are now expected during game time. Public bets are coming in on the over, yet the total is ticking back to 44 on some books. Reverse line movement alert! Bet this Under above the key number of 44.

This is what Odell Beckham Jr was brought on this team to do, and it’s his time to show up in the playoffs. Last week, Houston was blitzing the full first half, not allowing any time for routes to develop for OBJ. By the second half, the run game was working out so well that they didn’t need to utilize him. I don’t see the Chiefs blitzing nearly as much as Houston did. With Mark Andrews back and so much focus on other weapons, I think OBJ will get one or two receptions to cash this over and remind everyone what he came here to do.

I would have much preferred this at 9.5 but I'm late to the party. I still like it a lot because of the matchup. Lamar Jackson rushed 11 times for 100 yards in last week's win over Houston -- the fourth time in the past six games he has rushed at least 11 times. The Chiefs are terrible defending runs out of the shotgun, one of Baltimore's favorite plays. Given Kansas City's elite pass defense, I'm expecting another heavy dose of Jackson rushes.

Baltimore shuts down the best outside reciever. Nobody grabs 7. Add in the fact the Ravens opponents run less plays than average and the emergence of TKelce and Pacheco and I see under.

A vintage Andy Reid Kansas City? Perhaps not, with the wideouts and protection for Patrick Mahomes, in particular, both down a few notches this season. But the playoff version of KC remains resilient and nothing if not formidable, as Buffalo found out again last week, and the current Chiefs D might be the best of the Reid generation. And then there is Mahomes, still indefatigable, working the shorter and intermediate routes more extensively, but dangerous nonetheless, and Travis Kelce proved there was still some petrol left in his tank last week. KC has fared well vs. Lamar Jackson-era Baltimore, and while the Ravens dominated last week, let's see how they fare vs. a team that, unlike Houston, will punch back. Play Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes continues to experience success in both the playoffs and as an underdog. Anything north of a field goal for Andy Reid and Mahomes seems excessive here, considering the way Kansas City can limit possessions in a game with long sustained drives. Baltimore finished the regular season 18th in EPA allowed per rush and 25th in run stop win rate. Baltimore can't stack the box to stop the run this week as they did against the Texans. I consider Baltimore -2 favorites, indicating strong value on KC through key numbers at +4.

It's not as if Pacheco's receiving numbers have been all that great lately, but Baltimore has allowed enemy running backs to hit this over in 7 of their last 8 games (in fact, each has cleared 20+ yards). Last week, Devin Singletary caught five passes for 48 yards and with KC very likely trailing, I could see Pacheco getting similar volume from Patrick Mahomes.

Patrick Mahomes is catching more than a field goal in the playoffs, which seems absurd. But I'm still going the other way because I believe this Ravens team is on a much higher level than people realize. They lost two competitive games in regulation in the regular season all year, one aided by a late pick-six in a game they led by 14 in the fourth quarter, and both losses were against divisional opponents that know them well. The Chiefs struggle to defend the run, and this is a defense that's not as beat-up or bad as recent units they've faced. With the Ravens defense third in yards per play and first in yards per pass, they can fend off a Mahomes rally.

Patrick Mahomes may end up right up there with Tom Brady as the greatest postseason quarterbacks in NFL history. I expect Mahomes to come up short on Sunday, however. Baltimore will be the best defense the Chiefs have faced this season, and Lamar Jackson is a man on a mission. I have a hard time seeing the Chiefs slowing down the Ravens' rushing attack and keeping Jackson in check. I also have a hard time seeing Kansas City scoring enough to keep up with the Ravens. I'm sticking by my prediction of a 30-20 win for the Ravens.

I think it's fair to call Tucker the greatest of all-time among kickers and I have a strong feeling he'll play in his second Super Bowl in a few weeks. He has made multiple successful field goals in 7 of his last 10 games and on the season, he's 32 of 33 from inside 50 yards. The Chiefs have allowed multiple field goal attempts in 7 of their last 9 games. I think Tucker covers this line and more as the Ravens march on.

Both offenses are likely to have some success running the ball, and for the Ravens I'm excited about Justice Hill's upside. He outcarried Gus Edwards last round while piling up 66 yards on 13 carries and adding two receptions for 11 yards. It was his third straight competitive game (throwing out the Ravens' rest game in Week 18) where Hill had at least 57 combined yards, which coincides with the injury to Keaton Mitchell. He should continue to be a big part of the plan this week, and while I think it's fine to play his rushing total Over as well, I'll bank on him being a key passing game weapon with the Chiefs secondary likely to give the team's receivers trouble.

Justin Watson had cleared this prop number in eight of his last nine meaningful games (excludes Week 18) until he was held without a catch on one target in Buffalo. However, the Chiefs ran just 47 plays, way below normal. Mecole Hardman could see his role reduced or eliminated after fumbling twice last week. Look for Watson to receive three or more targets and record at least 15 yards.

Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid catching more than a field goal in a game this big is too much for me to pass up. Chiefs ability to bully teams in heavy personnel, and throw out of any grouping with maybe the greatest QB ever will keep this very close against a great defense. Chiefs have the secondary and coordinator to limit Ravens big plays. Mahomes 8-0-1 ATS as road dog. Mahomes last 8 playoff games (7-1): 70.3% comp, 280 yds/G, 21 TD-3 INT, 113.3 rating. Highest rated playoff passer in NFL history, with a run game and great D won't go down by more than three. Ravens can't blow out every top team they play, right?

The Ravens jump on you early. It has been their calling card all season long. Meanwhile the Chiefs don’t always start fast, Mahomes is no stranger to big second half efforts (think SB last year). Take Bal early

Lamar Jackson has run for over 100 in three of his last four playoff games. The only one that went under his team was dominated by a Buffalo Bills defense, losing 17-3 in Buffalo on a day with swriling winds hampering the passing game. Jackson also did not play the 4th quarter because of a concussion. Jackson's running ability is such a great weapon.

It looks like it doesn't matter where Patrick Mahomes plays he is a winner. Also don't give him points because as an underdog Mahomes is 8-0-1 ATS. My model has Baltimore as a 2-point favorite but the difference between +2 and +3.5 is almost 10%. Meaning If these two played 100 times and I took +2 in every game I would go 50 and 50 however with +3.5, I will win 60 and lose 40 games. Go Chiefs!

Since Nov 1, Pacheco has a median of 89 yards. That is on a median on 17 carries. Even if he is down to 14/15 carries he should cash. Sure this will be a tough test, but I’m projecting 73 yards. Half unit

Was leaning Ravens regardless but the injuries appear to be going their way as Pro Bowl tight end Mark Andrews will return and Pro Bowl corner Marlon Humphrey is expected to as well, while Chiefs All-Pro guard Joe Thuney is not likely to play, according to reports today. He led all NFL players in pass block win rate at 99.1%. That's just a little important against a Ravens defense that led the NFL in sacks.

The Ravens' defense played just 46 snaps on Saturday, while the Chiefs' defense played 78 snaps on Sunday while suffering some injuries. It's always scary betting against Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes as underdogs with their halftime adjustments, so my favorite bet is Baltimore -2.5 in the first half. Shawn Smith is the referee, and the home team is 3-13 SU and 3-11-2 ATS in his games. Play the Ravens in the first half!

The Ravens offense is getting it done on the ground and through the air, and they should do less of the latter against a Chiefs defense that's much better defending the pass than the run. Jackson has been under this number in 10 of 18 games this season but also 8 of his last 11, and I think this game is more of a mismatch than people realize. Though both teams are put together much differently, I'll still note that the last time they faced, the Ravens beat the Chiefs 36-35 with Jackson throwing just 26 passes while Baltimore ran 41 times. I could see a similar split but with fewer total plays in a game both teams will look to shorten.

The Ravens dominated the Texans last week, and I'm not sure the Chiefs have a better offense right now than Houston's. Their scoring is up in recent weeks, but they've faced a bad Bengals defense and beat-up Dolphins and Bills defenses while settling for field goals too often in those games. The Ravens defense has allowed more than 20 points in regulation just four times all season while ranking first in yards per pass and second in red zone success rate. I think this number is probably at least three points too high.

Hill is far and away the Ravens best pass protecting RB, he is thriving with Keaton Mitchell out and with the Chiefs heavy blitz tendencies, he is a reliable safety valve. Can chip and catch. Hit this in 3 of last 4 games w/Mitchell on IR. Far and away best receiving back. And running well. Will be on field a ton. KC 26th in oppo pass rating to RBs, 24th in comp % (80%). RBs have 26 catches vs. them over last 4 games and 6+ catches vs them in 6 of last 7. And KC beat up at LB now too. Chiefs deny big play and Lamar will lean into horizontal pass game and screens like 2nd half vs Texans. Hill has sure hands

Chiefs have become very unstoppable between the 20s. The only question is red zone. But I don’t think they will fail to convert 2/3 red zone opportunities….give me the over.

As great as these defenses are, this perhaps the greatest QB ever, playing in 6th straight championship game, vs arguably the most dynamic QB ever, about to win a 2nd MVP at age 27. There will be points. Ravens average over 32 PPG at home. Both teams feature truly elite kickers good from 55+ and the early forecast looks great for throwing and kicking. Both teams will run the ball a ton, but holding these offenses, led by these QBs, under 3 total TDs is a big ask. 24-21 gets us home. For now. But this has already ticked up from 44. Ravens home games average 49' last 5 with Lamar: 44, 75, 68, 54, 64. KC score at least 23 in 5 AFCC

Ravens have issues in intermediate areas of middles of the field and some middling TEs have made big plays vs top D. Chiefs us 13 Personnel 24% of the time in playoffs and I expect a heavy dose Sunday. He'll be on the field plenty and taking away Kelce and Rice will be priority one in passing game. Gray can move and catch and could end up lined up on a run-personnel LB like Malik Harrison or smaller safety Geno Stone. Ravens ace DC Mike Macdonald can't take away everything and their zone principles have sagged some in areas that Gray can find. Has hit in 6 of 9 road games. At least 2 targets in 8 of 9 road games.

Kelce got much-needed time off, and then had a half bye against Miami in a blowout win that was over at the half. We know where the ball is going with the game on the line and for someone good for 1 TD in every playoff game he's played with Mahomes (a full season's worth at this point) I have to bite. Kyle Hamilton will be game but can Andy Reid get him on Geno Stone or Marcus Williams (playing with one bad arm) or Patrick Queen some? Kelce knows what Mahomes is thinking at all times. Still has elite catch radius and can high point the ball. So much institutional memory between QB and TE. I have to lean into it before this dips.

Ravens are the top sack and takeaway defense in the NFL. They get big leads and then take away the ability to run the ball - where they suffer. But Andy Reid knows where to attack them. Pacheco averages 5.3/carry on pitch plays; BAL allows 6.1 (28th), and 26th in success rate. Ravens run stuffer Broderick Washington has a down season and Reid knows his tackles could get exposed big time here. And good luck loading an 8-man box vs Mahomes. Pacheco is over this in six of the last 8 games and has 76+ in four of his five career playoff games. Ravens can't sell out to stop run this week like this did vs Texans and Chiefs run the ball much better.

Trickery with Mecole Hardman in the RZ nearly ended KC's season last week, and Ravens RZ defense is elite. KC finishes drives best on the ground and this is the finisher. It's hit in 5 of the last 6 games. Pacheco has 4 shotgun TD runs since Week 13; BAL terrible defending them. Chiefs are running 13 Personnel 3 times as much in playoffs as regular season and averaging 5.5/carry - Pacheco features there. BAL 27th in EPA vs runs out of 13. Has a rushing TD in 3 straight playoff games. 7 totals TDs in his last 6 games.

Andy Reid will lean into 13 Personnel with big bodies and attack this defense right up the gut with his power back. KC leads NFL with 47% of runs to middle since Week 13, KC 7th on the season in EPA on middle runs. BAL allows 4.7/carry up gut on season (30th), 26th in EPA. Reid will force more big bodies on field to open up pass game and control clock. KC 3rd highest rate of shotgun runs since Week 13; BAL allow 5.3/carry vs them in that span. This is a heavy Pacheco game. He's over this in 7 of the last 8 games.

The Chiefs are an incredibly stout defense with an all-world coordinator who loves to blitz. Everyone's blitz rates go up when they face Lamar. Ravens OTs can be vulnerable. When you blitz you are generally in man and Lamar will take off a run with DBs having their back to the play. KC str. struggles vs run and Willie Gay, their spy, might be out. He could top 70+ here easy like Josh Allen did. Hard to find a winning script for Baltimore without him running 14+ times. Ball control vs Mahomes will be essential. He is their lead back, as a QB.

DraftKings is dealing Ravens -3 (-120) while other books are at 3.5. The Chiefs averaged 7.7 yards per play in Buffalo, the third straight game (not counting Week 18) in which K.C.'s offense looked sharp. But the first of those came against defenseless Cincinnati, and the next two came against defenses battered by injury (Miami, Buffalo). It will be much tougher against the top-ranked Baltimore defense, which just held the Texans to zero points on nine of 10 drives. K.C.'s weakness is stopping the run -- the Bills rushed for 182 yards, averaging 4.7 per carry. That sets up well for Baltimore, which leads the NFL in rushing (160.6 per game). The Ravens ran for 229 yards in their blowout of Houston.

If you have been following me throughout the season, you'll know I have proudly been arguably the biggest Rashee Rice truther since the Chiefs made him the 55th overall pick out of SMU. Rice has had a fantastic rookie season by any metric, and it's all the more impressive considering Rice was not a full-time player in K.C.'s offense until after Week 10. While I remain bullish on Rice, getting seven receptions against this Baltimore pass defense is no easy task. Baltimore allowed six receivers all season to catch seven or more passes in a game, and you have to go back to Week 14 for the last one. I expect the Chiefs to lean on their ground game, which could limit drop-backs.

Isiah Pacheco continues to dominate touches in the Chiefs backfield, and the second-year running back has made a huge impact. Pacheco has been the engine of K.C.'s offense through two postseason games, and I expect that trend to continue against an elite Baltimore defense. The one area where the Ravens have been vulnerable has been in run defense. Baltimore finished the regular season 18th in EPA allowed per rush and 25th in run stop win rate. Their pass defense was second in both EPA allowed per drop-back and coverage grade. I expect the Chiefs to continue to lean heavily on their stud running back.