Reynolds has clipped this number 10 times this season, and his 15.2 yards per catch average illustrates he is a big-play threat. With top target Amon-Ra St. Brown destined to garner extra attention from the 49ers secondary, Reynolds should have plenty of opportunities to surpass this number.

Although both clubs feature an array of elite playmakers, there's value on the Under against this high total. San Francisco ranks in the top 5 of nearly every measurable defensive category, while Detroit's No. 2-ranked rushing defense should slow down the 49ers a little. Look for this one to sneak Under the total.

The 49ers have been the NFC's best team, while the Lions have been a darling and fan favorite that has (perhaps over?) achieved to this point given their struggles both defensively and against top defenses. However, San Francisco has not necessarily taken advantage of opponents. As a favorite of 6+ points, the Niners are 4-6 ATS since Oct. 15, 6-7 overall. Those wins? Washington, Arizona (twice), Seattle, New York Giants. Fair to say the Lions are a far superior squad to those teams. We getting a TD, extra point *and* the hook. This will going be tough for Detroit, but it's 7-2 ATS on the road and on a 4-1 ATS streak. The Niners should win, but I’ll have a moneyline sprinkle on the Lions.

Deebo Samuel has been cleared to play, and that's great news for Purdy in this prop. Samuel has caught four of Purdy's 12 completions of at least 41 yards this year and two more right at 40 yards. The Lions surrendered a 40-yard pass play in six straight games prior to avoiding it against Baker Mayfield, who had 349 yards on 41 attempts anyway. With his full complement of weapons, Purdy should have no problem putting at least one explosive play on the board against a defense that struggles against the pass.

Brock Purdy has thrown 30 or fewer passes in seven of his last nine games, but this matchup should induce a higher volume. Opponents have thrown at the fifth-highest rate versus Detroit (61.8 percent), including an eye-popping 70.8 percent rate the past three games. Kyle Shanahan knows the Lions' weakness is defending the pass.

When we consider Jared Goff splits away from home along with Brock Purdy having some sketchy performances over the last month, I think both these teams will lean into the runing game early. With both teams likely having a decent amount of success in that regard, I think we'll see some long drives which chew up enough clock to safely cash this first half under.

Word that Deebo Samuel is going to give it a go for the Niners should open the field a lot more for Brock Purdy, who had his issues last week vs Green Bay when Deebo was out, as the case in the regular season when Samuel was sidelined. With him on the field, Niners can stretch opposing defenses beyond recognition. The Lions' pass defense is their weakness and the Niners should exploit, and expect this game to proceed like the NFC title game of four years ago, when the Niners bolted clear before a belated Packers rally push the total to "over" in a 37-20 romp. Much the same in good weather conditions Sunday at Levi's. Play Lions-Niners "Over"

The 49ers come into this one having allowed the fifth-most receptions to WRs and the ninth-most touchdowns to the position. That opens the door for some Detroit pass-catchers to get something going, and while Amon-Ra St. Brown is the natural choice, there's better value on Josh Reynolds. Reynolds scored last week and is the clear WR2 in this offense, having seen 17 targets across the past three games. In what could be a trailing game-script, sprinkle on Goff's second WR to find the end zone. You can find this at +400 on most books.

San Fran dropped three games in a row this season with WR Deebo Samuel and RB Christian McCaffrey sidelined. With Samuel (shoulder) green-lighted on Friday, both offensive dynamos will be in the huddle. QB Brock Purdy, who must get them the ball, struggled in the rain last weekend. With dry conditions here, he surely will restore his regular season excellence against the Lions' soft spot -- pass defense. They have been battered by 9.3 yards per throw in the playoffs, an ominous sign. After Detroit's pair of narrow wins at home, the feel-good story of the postseason should be feeling bad at game's end.

The 49ers looked a bit wobbly last week and were fortunate to escape against an upstart Green Bay club that self-destructed down the stretch. The Lions have come too far just to fold in the NFC title game, and, it's worth noting that QB Jared Goff already has won a road conference title game when he was with the Rams. While there's little doubt San Francisco has the better team, it would be a surprise if the Lions go down without a fight.

In his second game back after hurting his knee in Week 18, LaPorta had 65 yards. That's where I'd expect him to end up this week against the Niners, who in their past five games have allowed a 79.5% catch rate, 10.4 yards per catch and 4.3 Yards After Catch per reception to tight ends. I wouldn't expect a bunch of big plays from LaPorta, but a 10-yard average is reasonable, and if that's the case then we'd need just five grabs against the 49ers' primarily zone-heavy defense. It helps that LaPorta, on the season, has averaged a full yard per catch more against zone coverage.

We finally got there, and I'm not going to let it pass. There is not close to a 3:1 chance, to me, that SF wins this game. They could be very tight at home. I worry about some of their stars in this spot and their "genius" head coach in this spot and no way is Deebo right. Might just be a decoy. As noted elsewhere on here. Lions can be the more physical team and bully this in trenches. 49ers dont look the same since the Ravens beat them up and stole their lunch money in Santa Clara last month. They best get off to a fast start. I'll sprinkle here for sure

The Lions are catching more than a TD on the spread, which feels entirely too wide, considering we saw San Francisco nearly fall to the Packers. Despite the unreal talent on the 49ers roster, this team is far from invincible. If Deebo Samuel plays, I imagine his shoulder will still be compromised. If his role is limited, the dynamic of this offense drastically shifts. Detroit's defense ranks #1 against the run and #1 in QB pressure rate. If they can contain Christian McCaffrey and swarm Brock Purdy, the 49ers might look human again. Detroit has a Top-5 ranked rush offense, and this Niners defense can be soft against the run. Detroit can stick around to cover, and perhaps even pull off the upset!

Perhaps the slight price moves here reflect any indicator that Deebo Samuel might play for the Niners. A fair reaction, given his importance to the SF offense, and the versatility he provides Brock Purdy, who struggled minus that for much of last Saturday vs. the Pack. And remember midseason losses to Cleveland and Minnesota without Deebo available. Assuming he plays, however, a big edge for the Niners, who can then better damage the weak link (secondary) in the Detroit defense. We saw the Lions get bullied at Baltimore and Chicago this season and not respond either time, and suspect Jared Goff will be under real pressure from Nick Bosa and friends, playing their fourth NFC title game in five seasons. Play 49ers

Will breakdown on Friday Prop show at 4 PM ET and then update here shortly after.

No better time to run for your life than the playoffs right? I don’t think it’s too much to ask this of Jared Goff. As a Ram, when Goff was facing off against the Niners at least twice a season, he averaged 10 rushing yards against them. The Niners pass rush is looking just as talented as ever and should flush Goff out of the pocket a few times. We saw this happen last week and he put up 6 yards. I’ll take my chances that we won’t see the Lions in a kneel down situation at the end of this game. I think we can squeeze out a few yards here.

The 49ers are strong defending the middle of the field but can be had on the outside. That's where Jameson Williams tends to operate. He's cleared this prop total in four of his last five. A potentially negative game script also would help this prop cash.

Figured this would hit 7.5 at a reasonable price by Friday. The Lions are live for me because of their ability to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, and because their QB has already been to the Super Bowl and the 49ers pass rush and OL give me pause and the kid QB has a ton of pressure on him and I still don't like Kyle Shanahan in close and late games. SF 3-6 ATS at home (4th worst) and DET 7-2 ATS on road (2nd best). SF 24th in cover margin/G at home. Since Week 8 SF 0-6 ATS at home with a -56 cover margin; only WSH worse. Vegas overprices them bigtime at home.

I expect the 49ers to win this game -- they are the better overall team, with the best defense in the NFL, and they have the all-important home field advantage. That said, the Niners' offense isn't the same without Deebo Samuel. Samuel's status is still up in the air, but we can be certain that he won't be 100%. I expect San Francisco to play much better this week, and ultimately win a close game. Final prediction: 49ers 27, Lions 24.

Game script plays a huge role in betting player props, and this week San Francisco, even with a lead, has a massive advantage throwing against the Lions' much-maligned secondary. Christian McCaffrey hasn't gone over 19 carries since Nov. 19, and that was his heaviest workload since Oct. 1. Last week showed he's still not 100%, and while he will get his touches against one of the league's best run defenses, I expect a lightened rushing workload compared to the market, especially if the 49ers find separation as a touchdown favorite. Give me the Under.

In Detroit's five defeats this season, Goff has thrown 35, 53, 44, 35, and 34 passes. With my prediction of San Francisco being ahead throughout the entirety of the second half, I would not be surprised to see the Lions QB throw it at least 40 times. Even when playing ahead last week, Goff had 43 attempts. He'll need some extra ice for that throwing arm after he airs it out often on Sunday afternoon/evening.

Goff has thrown an interception in four of the five Detroit losses this season and San Francisco's stellar defense has forced at least one INT in eight of their last ten games. With Detroit likely trailing and having to chuck it on almost every play, at least one Goff turnover seems likely to happen even at these poor odds.

It's well-documented how poorly Detroit is playing against No. 1 wide receivers lately from a yardage perspective, but each of the last five weeks, those same receivers have also scored a touchdown. Even at chalky odds, look for Aiyuk to join the club on Sunday, especially with Deebo Samuel either very limited or out.

In their last five games against No. 1 wide receivers, Detroit is averaging giving up 10 catches for 178 yards and a touchdown against each. Talk about passing funnels to the extreme! I expect Aiyuk to go nuclear on Sunday, also considering that he's topped 100+ yards in three of the last five full games he's played. I would even considering laddering this up to 125 at odds above +300.

The Lions run the ball at the 12th-highest rate and when they throw, they love to target the middle of the field. That's where Fred Warner operates. This price has risen but I still like it, given Warner's role and the Lions' offensive scheme. Look for Warner to rack up at least eight combined tackles for the 11th time this season.

The 49ers barely squeaked by the Packers last week, but I'm not going to let that game impact my valuation of them too heavily with the rain impacting how effective the 49ers pass game could be. Conditions should be perfect for this game, and I believe we're in for a massive point total for the a 49ers pass offense that's No. 1 in yards per pass against a dreadful Lions pass defense, even if Deebo Samuel doesn't play. There could be a threat of a backdoor cover by the Lions, but I don't expect them to be at their best on the road in a rare outdoor spot against a quality 49ers defense. I'll count on the 49ers to score enough to cover.

Montgomery has clearly lost some touches to Jahmyr Gibbs, but +130 for an anytime TD? If it's near the goal line, it should be Montgomery's ball. He previously closed with minus odds to score a TD in 14 of 16 games played including playoffs.

David Montgomery has averaged exactly 50 yards over his last five games, but the Lions never trailed by more than a touchdown in any of those and they led for the vast majority of snaps. This could be a much different game script. The 49ers' run defense, with a healthy Javon Hargrave and Arik Armstead, held Aaron Jones to 55 yards on his first 17 carries last week until Jones broke a 53-yarder late. I'm not worried about Montgomery breaking a long one -- he's more of a steady grinder -- and it's obvious the explosive Jahmyr Gibbs deserves more of the workload.

The Lions defense has been bend but don't break for over a month, but this seems like the matchup where it could all come crashing down. Five straight opponents have seen their QB throw for well over 300 yards, and the 49ers finished first in yards per pass in the regular season. Even if Deebo Samuel can't go, they should have a lot of success offensively, and that could include a big game on the ground for Christian McCaffrey after Rachaad White did better than expected last week. The Lions have allowed at least four scoring drives in five straight games, and the 49ers are better than any of those offenses.

Kittle is primed to break out. Detroit is bad v TE, Kittle is a monster at home and Debo may not play. Plus, Kittle had 81 yards in the rain with 2 drops last week. Over.

Brandon Aiyuk has averaged 84.2 yards per game this season, but his past two games were below average. The Lions have a low ranking of 24th in opponent passer rating and 28th in yards per play against. They have allowed an opposing wide receiver to surpass 140 yards in their last five games. Despite the odds-makers not accounting for it, the injury to Deebo Samuel should increase Aiyuk's target share. My model has this at 88 yards!

Kittle is over this in 6 straight home games and has a catch of 32+ in 5 of 6. Lions have allowed 9 passes to TEs of 24+, tied for the most in the NFL. This will be a problem for them and Kittle can shed tacklers and run for big YAC, which makes this possible even on underneath stuff. Lions are 24th in yards/attempt allowed to TEs this season (including the playoffs). Can't double everyone.

Gibbs has averaged 80 scrimmage yards a game on the road, the efficiency of the pass game tails off some outdoors and Gibbs is a demon on pitch plays and outside zone runs, which the 49ers cant stop. Montgomery can get the tough yards inside but Gibbs can duplicate a lot of what Aaron Jones did last week outside the tackles. He averages 5.3/carry on the road and this OL is built to beat people up. I see Dam Campbell getting old school here. 49ers stink vs under center runs (29th in success% since Week 14). Since Week 14 Gibbs averages a crazy 6.4/carry under center. Plus he can get chunk yards in screen game. I see them running the edges heavy

The Lions have to stay balanced and the 49ers run D is a major problem. Ample carries for Montgomery and Gibbs. Gibbs averages 11 rushes/game on the road, and averages a ridiculous 6.0/carry on outside zone runs (Montgomery is at 5.1). Gibbs has looked fresher and more explosive lately. Could be the lead dog here. Reasonable total either way. SF is 30th vs outside zone (4.9/carry) and 30th in EPA. Since Week 15 SF allows 8.7/carry on pitch plays; Gibbs more explosive back on those looks. 9 carries last week on 8.1/carry while Montgomery had 10 on 3.2. Dan Campbell has to see what I see, especially against this defense.

Huge target for Brock Purdy who faces a defense that struggles against TEs. TEs show up big in the playoffs and continue to get fed in money games. He has TDs in 4 of the last 6 at home (6 total in that span), and 6 TDs in 8 home games. Lions are very stout against the run and I suspect Purdy will be taking shots at the underbelly of their secondary in the middle of the field.

Been a heavy play for us in 49ers home games since November. Brock Purdy finds him more at home, and the Lions have major issues vs TEs. Not sure Brian Branch can shadow him given the multiplicity in this offense. He averages 5 catches for 86 yards at home (including playoffs).He has 76+ in 5 straight home games. If Deebo is out, should get even more targets. He has a long of at least 24 yards in 7 straight at home, and 32 or more in 5 of the last 6 at home. This has become an auto-play for me. Especially under 60 in a game of this magnitude

Christian McCaffrey was targeted 12 times last week. That marked his fourth straight game with 5-plus targets. The Lions give up the fewest rushing yards to opposing running backs, but their linebackers (Jack Cambell, Alex Anzalone, Derrick Barnes) are extremely vulnerable in coverage. Look for McCaffrey to do extensive damage as a receiver. If Deebo Samuel can't play or is limited, McCaffrey's receiving ceiling goes even higher.

The Lions are on the doorstep of their first Super Bowl appearance despite not doing a good job slowing down opposing WR1s. Mike Evans just racked up 147 yards on eight catches in the divisional round after Puka Nacua had 181 yards on nine catches in the wild-card round. In fact, an opposing receiver has topped 140 yards against the Lions in five straight games. That trend should continue with a 49ers offense that ranked first in yards per pass on the regular season, and the injury to Deebo Samuel could help consolidate targets to Aiyuk. I'd also sprinkle on Aiyuk to top 100 yards in this matchup.

Purdy has been shaky since getting whipped by the Raves, the right side of his OL is leaky, he's been vulnerable vs the blitz lately and Detroit ain't going to stop bringing the heat, now. Should have thrown 2 picks Sunday, threw 4 at home vs Ravens a few weeks back and might be without Deebo, too. Purdy vs blitz last 3 weeks: 73.4 rating. Vs Pressure: 61.1 rating. Overall: 79.4. He doesn't look as sure and confident and Aiden Hutchinson will be a problem for his RT (keep him away from the LT). Lions secondary healthier now and the longer this game is close the more I like Purdy to telegraph some throws.

While David Montgomery is a solid veteran who picks up tough yards and takes care of the football, it's become painfully obvious that the rookie running back Jaymyr Gibbs is the superior option in the backfield. Gibbs offers a true three-down skill set and has elite burst and acceleration. He is a threat to score every time he touches the football. Gibbs was trying to do too much early in the season, but the game has slowed down for him and he's allowing blocks to develop. The 49ers run defense has been a weakness this season, and we just saw Aaron Jones completely shred them, to the tune of 116 combined yards. I believe Gibbs has earned additional touches in the NFC Championship Game.