Griffin's Past Picks
Game 7 unders have been a tried and true betting method for us all postseason, and that will remain the approach for tonight despite the heavy juice. Game 7s bring about the most from teams defensively, as you'll see more blocked shots, and you'll also see more patient offenses looking for the right opportunity rather than put a low-quality shot on net that could lead to an odd-man rush the other way. Dating back to 1942, there have been 17 Game 7s in the Stanley Cup Final. Only once have they exceeded this number. Take the under.
We have a Game 3 here with the Oilers down 0-2, and while I lean their way for a win, I feel even better about goals. Edmonton should be desperate, and that aggressiveness should open up scoring chances on both ends. The Oilers home games this postseason have averaged 7.0 goals per game, and I'm liking our first over of the series to hit tonight. McDavid and Tkachuk are my two favorites to find the back of the net.
The Stars should be able to respond here following Game 4's loss to Edmonton as the series heads back to Dallas for a pivotal Game 5. Dallas is 5-0 following their past five losses this postseason, out-shooting their opponents in all but one of those games. Expect the Stars to come out aggressive and take control of this series on Friday.
These two teams are giving us an absolute treat of an Eastern Conference Final, with three straight meetings going to overtime. We've reached an all-important Game 5 with the series dead-locked at two games apiece, and I think that should lead to a tighter game on the whole. Three of four meetings have gone under, including both in New York, so jump on under 5.5 here with Shesterkin and Bobrovsky headlining the night between the pipes.
The numbers say let's roll with the over, as the Oilers have found themselves in plenty of high-scoring games at home this postseason, but what we're seeing on the ice just can't allow it. Unders have been dominating the conference finals, and that's the path we have to traverse until something changes. I lean Edmonton winning this one.
At this point, it's time to just accept that these conference finals aren't going to bring with it the goals we may want to see. Both meetings thus far between the Rangers and Panthers ended up with just three goals, and things should remain tight moving forward. The under has to be the play.
I think this series is going to be our best bet to see some fireworks with goal-scoring. Two of three meetings between Dallas and Edmonton this season ended with 7+ goals, and six of the last eight have hit that mark. The key trend I hope to see continue is the pace of both of these teams respective Game 1s this postseason. Edmonton's two opening games finished with nine and 11 goals, while both of Dallas's Game 1s ended with 7 goals. I'll nab the over in what should be a fun matchup.
Game 7 unders are a "set-and-forget" playoff puck approach with me. Expect both sides to tighten up and avoid mistakes here as this series hits its final game. Whoever scores first is likely to try and clamp down and slow the pace. Shots have been slowing on both ends of late, and this under 6 is 2-0-1 in the last three games. Fade goals here, and I do lean Edmonton winning
Colorado cannot afford to drop both games at home and head back to Dallas down 3-1, and I expect them to step up and avoid such a fate. The Avs were 31-10 at home in the regular season and are 2-1 in Colorado this postseason. I just think this Avalanche team is too good to go down without a fight, so give me a big Nathan MacKinnon game and a Colorado win this evening.
If it ain't broke. We've been on the over for both games this series, and we've thus cashed two overs. The series heads to Colorado, but I'm more than okay to keep backing goals here. Loving the scoring chances both teams are getting, and as long as these penalties keep piling up, so too should the scoring. At some point this series will tighten up, but I don't see that being in Game 3. Last time these two met in Colorado, they combined for 11 goals.
I'm going right back to the over for Game 2 in what has already started to show itself to be one of the best series this round. Dallas got out to a quick 3-0 lead before ultimately falling 4-3 in OT to Colorado. I expect a similar pace that sees both power play groups net a goal, and the Stars should be pushing the pace a bit here to avoid another 0-2 series hole. Six of the past seven meetings between these two sides has now gone for 7+ goals.
This is by far the series I'm most excited to take in, as both of these sides most definitely can win the Stanley Cup. I'm expecting goals here to get us going, Game 1s have been a bit more wide open this postseason while both sides figure each other out. The Avalanche's three road games in these playoffs have averaged 9.67 goals per game, and six straight meetings between these two have yielded 6+ goals, averaging 8.67 goals per game Enjoy the show, this series should be a treat.
It's going to be rinse and repeat for me here with another Game 7 under. These games just see things tighten up, and that's what I expect from this Dallas-Vegas game tonight. I lean the Stars way to win, but I far more prefer to simply fade the goals. Four of the past five games this series have gone under 5.5 goals.
This Canes-Rangers series has all the makings of a tight series in my eyes. Frederik Andersen and Igor Shesterkin have both shown the ability to take over games, and on the whole, this year's matchups have been low-scoring. New York has tallied just four total goals in three meetings, and beyond one high-scoring game, Carolina finished with only 1 and 0 goals in the two other games. Both teams figure to start a bit slow after a long lay-off, I'll take the under in this one.
This series has been incredibly physical, and the defensive ferocity has really upped its game of late. That, plus Jeremy Swayman and Joseph Woll are playing lights out between the pipes. It all adds up to an under here in Game 7. No game has yet gone over six goals, so feel free to buy this up to a flat 6 if you'd like some insurance. Three straight have gone under 5.5, including two straight 2-1 contests. A similar pace seems in store here.