Lot working against the Texans, namely being down their top two WRs, playing their third game in 19 days and going on the road against a Jets team in desperation mode. No question Houston is the better team overall, but New York had most of the advantages … until Allen Lazard popped up on IR. While he’s the No. 3 WR by title with Davante Adams in tow, Lazard had been Aaron Rodgers’ best to this point. Tank Dell should do well on the outside against a porous Jets secondary, and the running game is healthy. The Texans have won covered straight as road underdogs under DeMeco Ryans, and we’re almost getting a field goal here. Try to get +3 (-120 or better) by kickoff.

Houston is down its top two wide receivers, and the Jets' offense has yet to take off. Both teams are strong on the defensive side, and I can't really see these teams do much more than trade field goals in the first quarter.

Without Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins, someone has to step up for the Texans' receiving core. I think it will be a combination of Hutchinson, Metchie, and Woods, but I feel best about Hutchinson's potential here. This number is low enough that he could go over on one catch. I expect 4+ targets for the former Iowa State standout on TNF.

This is a pretty huge price to pay, but I feel good about this one. The Texans won't be the same offensively without Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs, and the Jets are a pretty solid defensive team. Fairbairn is one of the best in the business, and I believe the Texans offense will have some red zone issues on Thursday night. I expect the veteran kicker to play a big role in the outcome of this game.

Rodgers thinks he's still the man but he cant play anymore and his tackles are going to be highly suspect vs this Texans DL. It's pretty obvious when he is forcing the ball to Allen Lazard or Davante Adams, his buddies, and he has the 6th worst INT% of any current NFL starting QB. His turnover worth throws rate is below league average. His legs are shot and he's getting hit a lot and it a stationary target - easy to deflect balls for picks. With the pressure mounting he has throw a pick in 3 of the last 4 games, with 6 total in that span. Texans average a pick/game; 7th best in INT rate. 5 INT in 4 road games.

Mixon has been the expected workhorse for a Texans offense suffering from an injury-ravaged WR corps. Although the strength of the Jets defense is their secondary, it stands to reason they will effort to stack the line of scrimmage, limit Mixon's production and force C.J. Stroud to beat them with limited weapons.

We're playing math here. Based of CJ Stroud's pass attempt line, and Dalton Schultz + Tank Dells reception lines, we're looking at about eight receptions to be given out to the three "other guys". Robert Woods is not the star WR people hoped for when he came into the league, but he is a proven starter accounting for 12% of team receptions over a large 35 game sample. He is a starter tonight and we have him projected for 3.5 receptions.

Big number for Schultz who has only eclipsed 40+ yards in a single game this season. He will face a Jets pass defense that's very good and has been a run funnel as a result of the strength of their pass defense. Schultz is likely to see plenty of Jets LB Quincy Williams who is very tough in coverage.

Rodgers is being maligned and when you are maligned you go with what you know. In this case it’s who ya know. This is a nice price as well.

Mike Williams has one catch and five targets over the past three games. Last week in New England, even with Allen Lazard inactive, Williams was not targeted. Williams also tends to run deeper routes, and it will be hard for Aaron Rodgers to hold the ball for long against Houston's fierce pass rush. I bet against Williams making two grabs on Thursday Night Football.

Neville Hewitt is only playing a fair amount because Azeez Al-Shaair is hurt and while he's out again tonight, Houston is deeper at linebacker with a return from injury of leading tackler Henry To'oTo'o and recent signing of Devin White, who made his team debut last week. Thus, Hewitt might go back to a semi-reserve role in this one. He only has 25 total tackles in eight games but did top this two games ago.

In the three games since they made a coaching change, Breece Hall has 16, 18 and 12 carries. The 12 carry effort was a result of the Jets falling behind the Steelers in the second half and having to play catch-up. Unless we get a game script where the Jets are down by more than a touchdown I project he will cash over this number.

Points are likely to be at a premium in this matchup. This Texans offense may need to lean on their talented Kicker Fairbairn to secure points when possible. I see the Jets having a "bend, don't break" defensive strategy tonight, with both of their starting safeties injured. If Jets elite CB's Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed are containing the remaining Texans weapons, their drives will stall and Fairbarn will get his looks.

Now that we are getting the key number of 43, grab this Under. The Jets and Texans both come into this short week game in rough shape. Houston remains without star WR Nico Collins, and last week they lost WR Stefon Diggs for the remainder of the season. Despite a shiny 6-2 record, Houston's offense has quietly struggled in several games. Meanwhile, the Jets can't seem to get out of their own way. They have scored 20 or fewer points in 5/8 games this season, with a season high of 24. Their vulnerable offensive line will now be without starting RG Alijah Vera-Tucker. I don't see either of these offenses thriving on Thursday night.

CJ Mosley is out, so Jamien Sherwood will wear the green dot as the Jets' defensive signal caller. He's registered at least nine combined stops in four straight games. Facing a run-heavy attack from Houston, I bet Sherwood will make it five in a row with at least nine tackles plus assists.

Our model has CJ Stroud with 191 yards against the NFL's No. 2 pass defense -- last year, Stroud had just 91 yards passing against New York before leaving in the fourth with a concussion. And of course, no Stefon Diggs or Nico Collins tonight. Sauce Gardner should shut down Tank Dell, so I don't really see a big play in Stroud's future. Tough to top this number against this defense without one big play at least. Stroud has topped this number in one of four road games thus far.

Since the coaching shake up with the Jets, Hall has 18, 16 and 12 carries. And while he was bottled up in the 12 carry game at Pitts (Where are the Jets were trailing big in the fourth quarter after leading early) In the other games, he has been very effective. I don’t trust the Houston run defense as much as some. Over.

The CJ Stroud props are overcorrected for losing Stefon Diggs. They also have improperly factored in two blowout games and one game at Green Bay where Houston ran their lowest number of plays of the year and only threw it 21 times. I made this 22.5.

The only time CJ Stroud has not smashed this number was in 2 completely one-sided blowouts (one win one loss) and an incredibly strange game at GB We Houston only threw it 21 times! Even factoring in the loss of Stefon Diggs and accounting, for the fact that the Jets play slower than average…I still make this 238.5.

This line is coming down for good reason. I understand this team is without Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins, but WR1 is not a place you want to be against the Jets. That implies you draw Sauce Gardner. And regardless, the game plan should never be to beat the Jets through the air. They are more vulnerable on the ground, and that's where Houston should keep this game. Dell can still have a productive night as WR1 and not go for 60+ yards. The Model has him projected for 53 yards.

The Jets are desperate for a good game from an offense, and I expect Davante Adams to continue to increase his target share at the expense of some other weapons, including Tyler Conklin. He had just 17 yards in his previous two games combined before a solid game against the Patriots, who were also the victims in his breakout game earlier in the season. By contrast, the Texans have allowed a league-low 21 yards per game and just 21 total receptions in eight games. I don't think Conklin will be a focal point of the gameplan, and even if he is, a Texans defense strong against tight ends can shut him down anyway.

Houston's CJ Stroud has topped this in five games and came close in a sixth. With his top two wideouts sitting, Stroud may have to use his feet a little to extend drives. The model has Stroud with three carries for 10 yards. Sacks don't count as rushing yardage in the NFL.

If there were a 'right time' to hop on this train to nowhere, it's right now as the offense is starting to look better with Davante Adams and the defense now has Haason Redick (Jets defense does have some injuries however). Add to that CJ Stroud must go on the road, on a short week, and face the Jets without his two top passing options (Collins and Diggs). Truth be told, Stroud wasn't great without just one of those options (Collins), so I don't expect him to be particularly good without both. The Texans could have easily lost last week to the Colts and I think they record a loss in this spot.

When the Texans traded for Joe Mixon, OC Bobby Slowik called the running back "an absolute workhorse." And they're using him that way, giving him 25 carries each of the past two weeks and 30 carries in an earlier game. Dameon Pierce is out so Mixon has zero competition for carries. Jets opponents are running the ball 49.5 percent of the time, the sixth-highest rate. With Houston missing Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs and facing a strong Jets' pass defense, I'm expecting a run-heavy attack led by Mixon.

Yes, I'm backing the Jets one last time this season, as they've hit an all-time low in the market. This is a tough situational spot for the Texans, who are dealing with injuries and playing another road game on a short week. My main concern is whether the Texans' offensive line can hold up. I have the Jets winning 59% of simulations, which implies the line should be -144.

Sure, going with the Jets these days usually appeals only to oil-rig firefighters, paratroopers, and various daredevils after losing and failing to cover five straight, and dismissing HC Robert Saleh along the way. But things are often not as they seem in the NFL, and the Jets were in position to win four of those five in their current slump. Aaron Rodgers is also getting a bit more comfy with recently-added target Davante Adams. Meanwhile, the Texans haven't been as dominant as their 6-2 record makes it seem. CJ Stroud, getting intense pressure this season, is also without top targets Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs (out for the season). Remember, last December, Houston went to MetLife and exited a 30-6 loser. Play Jets on ML

Mike Williams did not get a target in last week’s loss to the Patriots, despite being on the field for thirty three snaps. With Allen Lazard doubtful, look for Aaron Rodgers to finally look to regain some trust with Williams. Additionally, in last years Jets win at home over the Texans, Garrett Wilson had his best game of the 2023 season. Expect Wilson to be a focus of attention along with Davante Adams, that will give Williams some open opportunities. Take his yardage prop over.

The Jets have lost five in a row and not covered any of the five but Aaron Rodgers is there and he's going to come back and be himself any day after a year off from an Achilles injury. The 6-2 Texans come to town but the Jets are going to come alive at home and beat them? The Texans are +4 on turnover ratio the Jets are -3. The Texans have the No. 2 defense in the NFL allowing 280 yards per game. They're also No. 4 in sacks which Aaron Rodgers is going to love. There's no reason to mess with the Jets, the over is the best way to go. The number I have is seven points higher than the total listed.

Despite losing their top WR Stefon Diggs, the Texans road to success in this game will be on defense. They've made many QBs have their worst possible games against them. That doesn't bode well for an offensive attack that has struggled throwing the football with consistency.

I can't wait to drop Aaron Rodgers from my memory bank, which will happen if the Jets lose here because then they are officially done for 2024 and he can go do his peyote in New Zealand all he wants. But Houston is down both top WRs in Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs (torn ACL, done for the year), and there's only so much CJ Stroud can do single-handedly. Defensive starters Azeez Al-Shaair and Jimmie Ward also are expected out again. The Texans "can afford" to lose with essentially a three-game lead atop the AFC South. It's 100% must-win for New York.

The Texans have become a conservative offense - especially on the road - with a run-heavy play calling script. CJ Stroud struggles mightily to throw TDs and push the ball deep on the road, and Joe Mixon is a plowhorse who gets stronger through the game. He's gone over 20 carries the last two games, he has 100 yards rushing in every game with at least 10 carries and Jets have allowed 125+ yards five times already. Jets are the 5th most rushed on team in the NFL - that's the way to attack their D, Since they fired Robert Saleh they are 26th in rush D EPA the last 3 weeks, 27th in success rate and are tiring out seeing over 30 rushes/G,

The Texans are a very conservative offense and especially on the road on a short week, and with their OL really struggling in pass protection, I expect a big Joe Mixon game here. The Jets have allowed 10 rushing TDs on the season - tied for 4th most - and 6 in the last 3 games. They are the 5th most rushed on team in NFL, and their EPA is lagging by the week. Mixon has a TD in every game he's had at least 10 carries as a Texan and 5 TDs in the 4 games in which he did hit that total.

The big-name Jets are the laughingstock of the league and enter on a five-game skid. But this is a terrible scheduling spot for the Texans. Houston will be playing its fourth game in 19 days -- three of them on the road -- and just won its most important contest against divisional foe Indy. The Texans will be missing their top two wideouts and are returning to the scene of their worst performance last year -- a 30-6 loss to the Zach Wilson-led Jets in December. C.J. Stroud was 10 of 23 for 91 yards in that game before leaving with a concussion. I bet the Jets and hope they replace their horrific kicker (six missed FGs, missed PAT) before gametime.

We've reached a point where the Jets' price has bottomed out and I'm taking the bait. From a full TD road divisional favorite to short home dog against an undermanned Texans side is a massive leap. How improbable was the Jets loss on Sunday? Teams had won 750 straight games when scoring 20+ points, not turning the ball over, and allowing less than 250 yards. Houston also fears they lost Stefon Diggs to a torn ACL meaning their top two receivers (Nico Collins already on IR) will be shelved. There's no way to sugarcoat the Jets' poor play of late but based on the statistical outlying performance Sunday, we're willing to buy the dip on the home team here, looking for an all in effort.

This already dropped one point from Sunday night to Mon AM. Woeful Jets have nothing to lose at this point and will attack CJ Stroud. Stroud averages 100 fewer passing yards on road than home with QB rating only around 90 and a fraction of his TD production. Outdoor games this time of year haven’t worked well for their offense. Big plays have dried up without Nico Collins. Another tough, short week for the Jets. Their offense stinks and the Texans are stout defensively. Jets three home games this season average under 30 points and their 12 home games since the start of last season average 35.3, second only to the team they share that stadium with. Texans are 7-5 under on road since '23.

The Jets have hit rock bottom after losing to the Patriots, but I'm actually more worried about the Texans here. Stefon Diggs figures to be lost after a noncontact knee injury, and Nico Collins must miss at least one more game. This figures to be the Joe Mixon show, and I don't see C.J. Stroud having much success through the air. The Jets offense has been a mess but faced a lot of tough opponents heading into the Pats game, where they had 5.9 yards per play and left some points on the board. With Houston's beat-up passing game, I could see them being held to about 4 yards per play like the Pats and allow the offense to do enough to get the win.