The 49ers are getting back Nick Bosa for this game and Dre Greenlaw for the first time this season, and mixed in with potential rainy weather and a divisional rematch angle this is setting up to be an Under game. Both teams had offensive explosions last week but play more familiar defenses here, and with this essentially being an elimination game as one of these teams tries to walk down the Seahawks, I expect this to be more of a chess match than a wide-open affair.

Could the Rams win? Obviously. But they haven't swept the series since 2018 and all of a sudden, the Niners' injury problems don't look so bad. Nick Bosa: In. Isaac Guerendo: In. Dre Greenlaw: In. My belly-button: In (not sure ever seen an outie in person). Perhaps TMI. If San Fran loses, the season is basically over. So a desperate, extremely well-coached team at home that has largely dominated this series otherwise? Yeah ...

The versatile and durable veteran has been surprisingly absent from the 49ers' offensive attack of late. Unfavorable game scripts and lingering injuries are likely to blame. This rates as a proverbial "squeaky wheel" game following Samuel's pleas on social media earlier this week for more touches. The 49ers need Samuel to be involved in their offense, and they will go out of their way to get him involved Thursday.

The tough-luck 49ers managed to look a little like themselves in a blowout win over the Bears. They are still a longshot for the postseason, in part because of an early-season collapse at Los Angeles in which the Rams escaped with a win. The public will be high on the Rams following their standout showing in a win over the Bills, but they are unlikely to duplicate that level of production. Expect a prideful 49ers club to notch another victory as it clings to its slim hopes.

It's a long time comin'. Ricky Pearsall has big play potential with a 39 yard run and one 46 yard catch. His production is inconsistent but he has gotten at least 30 snaps in every game. One catch could hit the over. The model makes the number 26.

The rams are 11 and five when their skilled position players are all together. Plus, while the Rams are +156 to make the playoffs…San Francisco is +2000 to win the division… They are essentially eliminated already. Add in a banged up 49er team who has lost three out of four, and I’m taking the points.

I was waiting for this line to come out and I had to wait until this afternoon. It opened at some books at 18.5, but I still think there is value at this number (BetMGM) and I'd be willing to play it up to 20.5. Blake Corum has hit this in 3 of his last 4, and more importantly, has had 8 carries in each of the last two games. The path to beating the 49ers is through the run in my opinion and I suspect both Kyren and Blake will be utilized. I should note that Kyren Williams carried the ball 29 times on Sunday and may need an extra break or two on a short week.

The Rams have been getting torched through the air, and will be short-handed in their secondary on Thursday night. Purdy was outstanding in Week 14 against the Bears, and I expect him to shine again on TNF.

Two of our Week 14 winners create a back-and-forth decision. While the 49ers went out and dominated the Bears, that was immensely predictable. Less so (though we nailed it) was the Rams edging the Bills. It’s tough to believe San Francisco -- despite positive news for Isaac Guerendo, Nick Bosa and Dre Greenlaw -- has completely flipped a switch. Los Angeles has been playing with its weapons for weeks, and it already beat the Niners this season without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Perhaps the 49ers have completely turned it around late; I’m erring on last week being an outlier for a group 2-7 straight up against the best teams it has faced. Getting +3 (up to -120) is an absolute must with the Rams.

The good news is that we have an idea of what the Niners will do when running backs get injured (see CMC). It’s next man up. I’m projecting 20.5 running back rush attempts for the Niners tonight. Thus I’ll take the over here.

In examining the San Francisco 49ers, last two months. I discovered that they have not had ANY game where the teams have run a total of 120 plays (the league average is 120-125). In fact, the median number of plays is 115. Put another way, there will be less plays run tonight than you are projecting. This shows up big in pass attempts and completions against the 49ers and thus I’m taking the under.

Kyren Williams essentially gets every single ram rushing touchdown. And with the exception of a mysterious four game stretch in the middle of the season, he has scored in every game. The Rams understand what to do near the goal line and they understand he’s their guy. With such a high total on the board, I project him higher than -145.

Brock Purdy has scored in three of his last six games. And he had 10 rushing attempts in the first meeting against the Rams. With the Niners banged up at RB, I see good value at a +450 price for him to sneak into the end zone.

The Rams had to go to the limit to hold off Buffalo last week, while the 49ers cruised to a blowout win over Chicago. That favors host San Fran on a short week. The Rams have been getting torched through the air, and they won't have starting corner Cobie Durant (chest). San Francisco's secondary is in better shape after getting safety Talanoa Hufanga and corner Deommodore Lenoir back last week. Look for Brock Purdy to have another efficient performance as the desperate 49ers cover.

The Rams should offer more resistance to the Niners than the Bears last Sunday, and have recently turned around a series that was all-SF for about five years. Still, LA seemed fortunate, as the Niners geared down in the final week last season, resting several starters in a 21-20 loss, and then effectively kicking away the September 22 game in Inglewood. The Rams have an over look about them now, as Matthew Stafford is in sync with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, but the defense was almost helpless in last week vs. the Bills. The Niners still have their injury issues, but Kyle Shanahan's offense has done damage to LA in recent years, and Brock Purdy back on the mark last week. Play Rams-Niners Over

This is strong value for me. Kyle Shanahan has Sean McVay's number ... except for when it really matters. Rams are healthier team, they are 11-5 when Matt Stafford has his top RB and top 2 WRs available and I like the healthier OL, too. Rams beat them earlier playing a C- game without their top guys. Bears didnt show up last week; Brock Purdy been very shaky at home this season. McVay owns December (23-10-1) but won't need the field goal here. 49ers are horrible in the 4th quarter and have worst ST in the NFL. That will show up huge in a big division game.

Rams tight end Colby Parkinson has caught one pass in each of the past four games, clearing this prop total each time. That's not too encouraging, but this matchup is. In the first meeting with San Fran, he caught three of five targets for 21 yards. With the Niners rediscovering their pass rush, and San Fran's top corners healthy again, I like Parkinson to make 1-2 grabs and clear this number.

The Rams defense struggled to slow down the Bills on Sunday, including giving up two completions over this number. That was the first time they gave up any receptions of 38+ yards since Week 6, and they'll face a less dangerous passer in Purdy this week. He delivered a 39-yard completion last week, the first time the 49ers have been over this number since Week 10, so as long as the Rams defenders tackle well I think it'll be hard for Purdy to hit this Over.

For four straight games Deebo Samuel of the San Francisco 49ers has failed to surpass twenty two yards receiving. Tonight, look for that to change against a Rams team that could not stop Josh Allen and the Bills offense this past Sunday. San Francisco has also had long term success against the LA Rams. With their starting quarterback under center the 49ers have not scored below 23 points in eight straight matchups. Take Samuel over on his yardage receiving prop.

The Rams fed RB Kyren Williams 29 carries last week in a huge win over the Bills. Williams has gotten 15+ touches in each game this season, and will need to be their workhorse down the stretch. In Week 3 when these teams last met, Williams went for 116 total yards & 3 TD’s on 26 touches. The Niners defense has been solid this season, ranking 3rd in pass yards allowed per game, but San Fran is a bit weaker against the run (12th, allowing 115.9 YPG). The 49ers will remain without LB Dre Greenlaw and Safety Malik Mustapha, while DE Nick Bosa’s status remains in question. The Rams passing attack is lethal, but establishing the run with Williams is crucial for their offense.

There is too much positive buzz about L.A.'s 44-42 heart-stopper against Buffalo. The offense was superb but the defense stunk. Having said that, the Rams are more likely to replicate their offensive than defensive showing here. The quartet of QB Matthew Stafford, RB Kyren Williams and WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua might be unmatched in the league. The 49ers are down to their third RB, Isaac Guerendo, and he is banged up. San Fran has weathered a glut of injuries somewhat because of its impressive depth, but there is a limit. Too many guys are out, and a short week complicates preparation for younger players and backups. If DE Nick Bosa sits again, Stafford will get more time in the pocket to make magic.

Jauan Jennings has a target share over 30 percent since Brandon Aiyuk went down. He torched the Rams for 175 receiving yards in Week 3. In addition, Rams starting cornerback Cobie Durant (chest) is out. The Rams' elite pressure rate has declined the past two weeks, and for the season they rank 29th in explosive pass plays allowed.

LA Rams have the one element that gives them the edge here over the 49ers and that is the benefit of health. They are their healthiest, more so than the Niners, which will prove to be an issue for San Francisco. This Rams team is peaking at the right time.

DraftKings. I love this spot for Jauan Jennings. Since Brandon Aiyuk went down, Jennings has seen 11, 11, 5 (snow game) and 8 targets in games started by Brock Purdy. He has 27 catches across those four games, with a 32% target share. The niners run game is up in the air with Isaac Guerendo questionable, and Deebo Samuel has not looked himself either. Against the zone-heavy Rams, who Jennings gashed for 11 catches back in week 2, I love the 49ers receiver in this matchup.

Scattered showers are possible Thursday night. And that forecast might have caused this total to drop from 49.5. However, in a vote of SportsLine Discord members, 60 percent favored the Over in Rams-49ers. The first meeting in Week 3 generated 51 points (27-24 LA). Last week, the Rams beat Buffalo 44-42 while the 49ers destroyed Chicago 38-13. Both teams have elite offensive coaches and playmakers.

The Deebster has not topped 22 yards receiving in four straight games, but I tend to think he gets a few extra targets on TNF for two reasons: 1) The Niners likely will be down to their fourth-string RB; 2) Samuel spoke publicly this week about not getting the ball enough. Kyle Shanahan said ideally he not air that dirty laundry in public but that: "We'd like to get it to him more and we'll continue to work at that." Our model has him at 55 yards and NumberFire at 58.6. I'm hoping Brock Purdy just throws Deebo a bomb on the first series to put this all to bed.

Deebo Samuel is frustrated at his lack of involvement with the offense. Both Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy indicated they want to get him the ball more, and George Kittle predicted Samuel will have a huge game Thursday. I'm not sure that's true, but I do like Samuel to make at least four grabs in this potential shootout. A couple of those could be quick screens. Samuel has exploded in his last four Thursday games, racking up 25 catches for 469 yards with three touchdowns. In his last seven meaningful games against LA (excluding Week 18 last season when he played sparingly), Samuel caught at least four passes in each and 42 overall (6 per game). He missed the Week 3 matchup this season.

Both the Rams (7-6) and the 49ers (6-7) had impressive wins on Sunday and that's good because it keeps the 49ers as the betting favorite. The 49ers had lost three straight until beating the Bears on Sunday. All the same 49ers are still out, even their third-string running back was knocked out Sunday. The win against the Bears gave the 49ers some false hope while the Rams played a perfect game against the Bills to win by two, 44-42. That's six wins out of the last eight games the Rams have won. Matt Stafford has both his star receivers playing well and he's looking his best with 10 touchdowns and no interceptions between his last four games. Rams win this game.

The Rams are flying high after beating the Bills in a shootout, and I like their chances of winning this game as well. They beat San Francisco earlier in the season without Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, and now with both back and Matthew Stafford dealing the offense looks tough to stop. The Rams defense didn't play well against the Bills at all, but San Francisco continues to deal with key injuries on both sides of the ball that have a clear affect on the upside of the team. Right now I have the two teams rated identically in terms of the spread and don't give the 49ers three points for home field, so I like the value on the 'dog.

A couple of bad performances prior to last week's game and a recent injury to Brock Purdy have kept his number reasonable in what could be a shootout against the Rams. The 49ers are likely without Isaac Guerendo, and while they will still try to run the ball, the passing game is going to be key. I expect both defenses to struggle and I expect the 49ers to lean on Purdy who threw for nearly 300 yards when these teams met in Week 3 (in that game, Purdy had Jauan Jennings and Brandon Aiyuk, but George Kittle and Deebo Samuel were inactive).

The Rams OL can look pretty shaky at times and even without Nick Bosa the 49ers got after a bad OL at home last week. Matt Stafford might not have as much time as he would like. The 49ers allow an 86.6% completion rate to RBs, 30th in the NFL. They allow 4 passes to RBs/game. I could see the screen game being a factor in this game and for this value, count me in.

Rams strong safety Quentin Lake only had three tackles in the shootout win over Buffalo, but this is a great matchup. The 49ers' offense generates the third-most tackles for opposing safeties and second-highest tackle rate for opposing safeties. Lake never comes off the field, and he had 10 tackles in the first meeting with San Francisco.

Kupp has at least 79 receiving yards in each of his last 4 games against the 49ers. He missed the first meeting and the Rams still put up 27 points on what has been a very good secondary. Kupp will get open, and he will get targets. Number is much lower than Puke Nacua's but either could go off here, or, frankly. both. Kupp is over this in 4 of his last 6 games.

Both of these offenses are tuned up, the San Francisco defense is without some key personnel and both quarterbacks are coming off their best games of the season. The Rams' offensive line looks like it has finally sorted some things out, and all of their wide receivers are winning downfield. They will be a problem for the 49ers secondary. Los Angeles has struggled with taking away big plays all season. The last 15 games between these teams have averaged 50 points. They scored 51 in the first meeting. I expect this to be bet up and close at 50.5 or higher.