The public is heavily on the Baltimore. Lamar Jackson is 17-5 SU in primetime, which is the best start for any quarterback since the merger. The line continues to move in the Ravens favor; however, they have a -0.3-point differential on the road. Sometimes it’s unclear what Buccaneers team will show up offensively, but they’re still 4-2 ATS thus far. Even with all Tampa Bay’s injuries on defense, they have played better at home, holding opponents to less than 21 points per game and less than 300 total yards of offense. Baker Mayfield should be able to take advantage of this weak Ravens secondary, allowing a league worst 275.7 passing yards on the year.

This is all about opportunity and snap share and while Sterling Shepard has logged snap counts of 65 percent over the last three weeks, at some point we're bound to see more of talented rookie Jalen McMillan. Shepard draws a much tougher assignment against this Ravens' pass defense than he's had in two of the last three games, when he went for 23 vs. the Saints in a blowout and eclipsed 50 vs. Philly with a lead. Baker Mayfield, in neutral game states, has preferred his true alphas in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and that should continue Monday. Instead of going over Cade Otton as that number has ticked up, fading Shepard appears to be the better path to profitability.

I like this price on the ML for the first half. Bal can swamp a D that is not use to the Lamar factor. Nice price.

I project Flowers to catch 5-8 passes. And he is at a consistent 14 yds per catch in non blowout games since week1. This even 4 receptions should put us close. 5 goes over.

Take Andrews over at plus money here. The number is deflated because of 2 early blowouts where Andrews didn’t have a catch but in every game since he has exceeded

I like over 22.5. It allows me to win on key numbers 23 and 24. The Bucs have had a few clunkers but overall have shown offensive steam v a Raven team that will give up points and garbage points (if it gets one sided)

The late-arriving value of an extra point on a key number makes this too much value to resist for a Bucs club that has shown it can score with anyone and has defeated two quality opponents at home this season. The Ravens have been rolling but could be due for a flat spot following a rugged stretch against the Bills, Bengals and Commanders.

This number is simply too high and reflects a couple of games where Baltimore got up big early and then pounded Henry. Unless Baltimore gets out to a sizable lead, this will go under

Skinny Lamar era. We've talked about this all offseason and the results have shown on the field: 4-2 to the over this season with his YPC up from 5.5 in 2023 to 6.3. Lamar Jackson's success passing the last few weeks should result in defensive adjustments that could reopen his running opportunities. The Model projects 59 rushing yards.

This is a good buy low spot on Derrick Henry. Baltimore hasn't had the chance to use him as a receiving threat much because teams have been focused on stopping the RB screen. Now that this resulted in Zay Flowers collecting 9 receptions for 120+ yards in the first half last week, Tampa Bay will be focused more on stopping their WRs. The Over is 26-13 since 2022, 14-9 since 2023 and “he’s due” with 0 and 4 receiving yards his past 2 games. One reception should cover this line.

This Ravens defense allows big plays, but not necessarily a lot of plays. And their "weak" numbers are against the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Jayden Daniels. Not only that, but TB should want to keep their game on the ground and control time of possession to keep this elite Ravens offense off the field. While the Ravens run D is impressive, Tampa Bay has three strong options there. The model has Baker Mayfield projected for 21 completions.

It’s arguable that the Ravens are the NFL's best, but it’s inarguable that Lamar Jackson is the co-favorite for MVP. Jackson is playing the best football of his career – especially the last two weeks where he’s totaled 671 yards and 5 TDs – and having Derrick Henry by his side has made Baltimore’s run game unstoppable. The Buccaneers have been excellent, but outside of the opening win over the Lions, the competition has either been inferior, injured or both. The Ravens have covered four straight and perform well as road favorites. They should take advantage of a Tampa Bay defense allowing 365.7 yards per game, sixth-most in the NFL. I wish this was -3 but would be willing to take it up to -4.

Baltimore is rolling offensively, and the Bucs have some injury issues that could make slowing down Derrick Henry next to impossible. Look for the Ravens to get off to a fast start on Monday night.

Jackson has thrown for a 40+ yard pass in 3/5 games this season, including a 44-yarder to shifty WR Zay Flowers last week. Jackson will be facing a blitz-heavy Tampa Bay defense that is now without their best CB Jamel Dean. Jackson is like a good counter-puncher; he makes you miss, then he makes you pay. I see him evading the blitz tonight and finding a target deep downfield. However, we may not even need air yards to cash this. Zay Flowers can juke multiple defenders and break off a big gain on a screen pass. The Bucs secondary is beat up and can be exploited.

We've got all the variables we need for Baker Mayfield to cruise to at least two touchdown passes (something he has done in each of his last three games). The Baltimore Ravens have a stout rush defense and will likely be operating from a netural or positive game script. That set up will translate into a lot of passing from Baker Mayfield and I suspect he'll have plenty of success against a Ravens defense that has had a very hard time stopping the air attack.

The Baltimore Ravens have put out an impressive offense rated No. 1 in the NFL with the No. 1 rated rushing team. They've gone over five of their six games and this looks like another one based on the opponent. Tampa Bay is the third highest-scoring team in the NFL, and Baltimore is the fourth highest-scoring team. Fifty looks like a lot of points but it's one of those that will be no sweat. Baltimore brings it every game and they should this game as well and the defense suffers because they go so fast. This game goes over.

I played Ravens full game ML at -175, and I will double dip and bet they take this first half as well. Several other Sportsline analysts wisely got this out at -1.5, and now that it has moved to -2.5 I much prefer the ML at this price if you were late to the party like me. Lamar Jackson is 53-28-2 ATS in 1H for his career. I feel confident that the Ravens will take control of this game early.

Ravens TE Mark Andrews has seemingly reemerged in this offense. Andrews went missing in action for bettors in 3 of the first 4 weeks of the season, but has posted back-to-back games with 50+ receiving yards. Last week he found the end zone, and I expect him to continue to roll against a Tampa Bay defense that ranks bottom of the league in defending opposing TE's. I would consider laddering Andrews up to 60+ receiving yards at +475!

Now that 50 has popped up, I'll take a stab at the Under. Although I do expect offense in this matchup, I believe the total is set too high. The Ravens defense is due for positive regression. They have been stout against the run, but struggled defending the pass against some of the league's best QB's early in the season (Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Daniels). I like Ravens DB's Kyle Hamilton and Marlon Humphrey to step up tonight and prove that this secondary is better than it has played thus far. Pair that with a Ravens ground heavy attack that keeps the clock moving, and we cash this inflated total that will go Under 50 points.

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is 22-1 SU against NFC teams in his career. Clearly, teams that don't play him frequently struggle to game plan against him. Bucs HC Todd Bowles is known for his blitz-heavy defensive scheme, but that may be ill-advised against Jackson. If the blitz doesn't get home, Jackson will make them pay on extended/broken plays. I have been a doubter of this Bucs team, and they have proven me wrong thus far. However, I think they match up poorly against the Ravens on both sides of the ball, so I'm willing to pay the juice and play Ravens ML at this price.

Baltimore is rolling on offense, averaging over 33 points per game during their current four-game winning streak. Derrick Henry has been nearly unstoppable during that stretch, rushing for 574 yards and six touchdowns. Tampa Bay is beat up on defense and could be without Vita Vea. I like Baltimore to score at least four touchdowns on Monday night.

Godwin has exceeded this number with regularity and every game where Tampa Bay has had over 51 offensive plays. As I project them for 62 tonight, I’ll play over. Also, if Tampa Bay is chasing keep in mind, Baltimore has been the leakiest fourth-quarter past defense per play in the AFC.

Looks like this spread is locked in with the hook. Nonetheless, the Ravens are preferable. They have torn through their last four opponents after opening 0-2 straight-up. Their offense and defense rank highly, and their ground game could shred Tampa Bay's 24th-ranked rush yardage yield per play. Under QB Lamar Jackson, Baltimore loves playing under the lights, with 17 wins in 22 outings during prime time. The Bucs admirably beat the Saints in New Orleans while their home area was ravaged by storms. Whether they can repeat the feat back home against a Super Bowl contender is debatable.

Unless we get a nontraditional game script, Evans is almost a lock for six targets and 12 1/2 yards per catch. Thus, he would have to catch every target to barely sneak over. I’ll play the under.

As it relates to totals, Ravens scorelines have a pattern...they're either really close to the number or they blow past for an over result. Even the two lowest-scoring Baltimore games this season (the opener vs. the Chiefs, and three weeks ago vs. the Bills) could easily have landed over had a last-second TD stood in KC, and Buffalo not conceded when far behind in the second half. Note that In their current four-game win streak, the Ravens are scoring at a 31 ppg clip, with opposing defenses now having to deal with a runaway Derrick Henry as well as the flying feet and arm of Lamar Jackson. The last two Bucs scorelines have hit 66 and 78, respectively. Play Ravens-Bucs Over

With Todd Bowles' love of the blitz, I expect the Ravens to counter that with quick throws, including to Justice Hill. He has caught 18 of 21 targets this season and should make at least two grabs Monday night.

My model ranks the Ravens as the best team in the NFL, and I like their matchup against Tampa's defense. The Bucs have a few key injury concerns coming into this game, which could impact both their defensive line (in stopping the run) and their downfield passing attack. This number should be a full -3 in the first half for this matchup.

Lamar Jackson is 22-1 straight-up against NFC opponents, including 10-1 SU on the road. But I don't want to lay over a field goal against a Bucs team that can certainly cover through the back door. Baltimore usually starts fast but is prone to fourth-quarter letdowns. Tampa Bay nose tackle Vita Vea, the key to the Bucs' run defense, did not practice Saturday after developing a hamstring injury. Vea is critical in this matchup. But even if he plays through his questionable tag, look for the Ravens to improve to 10-2 ATS in the first half of their last 12 road games.

The Bucs will have Mike Evans for this game but might not have Vita Vea, who didn't practice Saturday due to a hamstring injury. That could be a big problem against Baltimore's elite rushing attack. But I'm going to back the Bucs anyway as I believe they're a good team, and catching 3.5 at home with a good team against anyone is a good look. Moreover, teams favored by at least 3.5 on the road in primetime over an eventual playoff team are just 1-9 ATS all-time; expand that to .500 or better teams and it's 4-11 ATS, but either way, as long as the Bucs are actually a good team, they should cover in this spot more often than not.

Zay Flowers is quickly emerging as Lamar Jackson's favorite target, in addition to being a bonafide WR1. Flowers is coming off back to back 100 yard outings where he turned 21 targets into 243 yards. Flowers gets another nice matchup against a Bucs team that struggles in coverage. Zay is also exceptional against zone coverage which Tampa plays a lot of making this a strong matchup as well. Tampa is capable of pushing the Ravens into a pass heavy game script too.

The Bucs are 30th in EPA defending scrambles. The four mobile QBs they have faced (Jayden Daniels Bo Nix, Jalen Hurts. Spencer Rattler) have combined for 32 rushes for 187 yards and 4 TDs vs them (5.8/carry) when filtering for kneels and fumbles. Daniels racked up 88 on the ground and Rattler averaged 9/carry last week. Lamar hasn't had to activate the legs as much lately but this is the best pass D he has faced since KC in Week 1 and he can get chunk yard son the ground vs this D. Running outside and away from Vita Vea makes sense. When teams met in TB in '22, BAL speed backs (Lamar, Justice Hill, WR Devin Duvernay) ran 13 times for 116 yards (8.92/carry).

He leads the NFL in passing TDs. He has 29 passing TDs in his last 12 regular season games,, most in the NFL. Ravens still have some serious issues defending the pass, with miss communication and blown assignments a big problem. Ravens blitz cant get home and Baker kills the blitz. He owns the slot and Ravens can't defend it. Good luck running on the Ravens when you can throw all over on them. He has 2 passing TDs or more in 4 of his last 6 games. No shortage of options to pass to, including the RBs.

Godwin leads the NFL in YAC, with 70 more than anyone else in the NFL. Ravens have allowed the 4th most YAC in the NFL. He is killing defenders with a two-way go in the slot and the Ravens are brutal against those profiles. Godwin has at least 8 targets in 5 games and is catching a ridiculous 81% of his passes from Baker Mayfield. Ravens allowing 75% completions to slot guys, and 9.5/attempt in the slot (31st).

Godwin has 5 TDs already, and is back to peak form. Maybe the best slot receiver in the NFL right now. Baker Mayfield has a 129 rating throwing to slot targets (3rd in NFL) and Ravens already allowed 5 passing TDs to slot guys and a 118 rating (25th). Even if CB Arthur Maulet returns this week, Ravens in trouble with this matchup, having to keep someone over the top of Mike Evans, too. Ravens one of the worst D in NFL defending shallow crossers and between the hashes, where Godwin can eat.

The Bucs have gotten healthier on the back end, and with the way the Ravens are chucking the ball around, I don't think they can sell out to stack the box and try to stop the run. They might be OK with them running between the 20s and making them earn it. Henry has 84+ in 5 straight since getting settled in this offense. He has 92+ in 4 in a row. Ravens are road grading people in 21 and 22 personnel and Bucs are 24th in YPC allowed vs those looks, with just a 47% success rate. Dude has over 100 yards more than any other back in the 4th quarter/OT alone. And Ravens OL finally getting in gear, too.

Bucs still dealing with serious injuries to its slumping defense, and Ravens cannot defend the pass. Bucs are 4-2 to the over and the Ravens are 5-1. Tampa’s last three games produced 49, 66 and 78 points and they have scored 30+ four times already. Ravens have scored 28 or more during their four-game winning streak. Ravens are 7-2 to the over in their last nine games. Lamar puts up massive numbers vs NFC teams since they rarely see him and these teams, with very different scoring styles and much stronger defenses, produced 49 points when they met in Tampa in 2022. Ravens 6-1 over vs NFC since the start of last season, scoring 28+ in all of them.