Been hemming and hawing about whether to submit a call for this dreadful “Thursday Night Football” showdown given there is so much unpredictability afoot with these teams. The Saints are ravaged by injuries and rightly exhausted playing a third game in 11 days. The Broncos have somehow won three of four despite being largely terrible offensively. Bo Nix has quietly improved completing 63% of his passes with five total TD and one INT over the last two weeks. New Orleans is weak against the run and pass, though it has surprisingly grabbed the second-most INT in the NFL (10). Its offensive output last week was a total mirage in a blowout, and Vance Joseph should get the pass rush dialed up against Spencer Rattler.

This total has come down but there's still a touch of wiggle room in the market. McLaughlin has struggled with efficiency all season on the ground and last week the Broncos had Audric Estime return to the lineup from injury. What did that mean? McLaughlin saw his smallest snap share of the season 25% (also aided by game state) limiting his overall workload. Even against this porous Saints D in a potentially positive game state the scat back adds value more as a pass catcher than runner so I expect touches to be at a minimum in the Sean Payton revenge game.

Take Denver under the key number of 20. They just have too many droughts

The kickers weren't my friend on Monday Night Football this week, but this is a spot where I feel good about Lutz coming through. The veteran kicker spent the bulk of his career kicking for the Saints, so he should be comfortable in the dome. The Broncos have had some issues in the red zone, so I expect the attempts to be there.

Sean Payton made a point of saying he wants to get a look at his young players on offense. Estime looked solid in his limited work in Week 6, and I expect him to get at least 5 carries on Thursday night.

Williams is averaging well under this number in 2024, but I really like this spot for him on TNF. Williams notched only six carries on Sunday, so he should be fresher than most starting running backs typically would on a short week. Williams is one of the most physical runners in the league, and the Saints' tackling on Sunday was horrendous. I have some concerns that rookie Audric Estime will steal some carries, but this is a spot where I see Williams going for 60+ rushing yards.

The Broncos did nothing to instill any confidence in their offense last week, but what the Saints' defense showed against the Bucs in Week 6 was downright embarrassing. Sean Payton will want to have a strong performance in his first trip back to New Orleans with the Broncos, and I expect Denver to build off its success in the second half against the Chargers last week. I expect 21+ points from the Broncos here.

The fact that the Broncos are favored in a road game at this point in the season is pretty unbelievable. That won't stop me from backing them in this spot, though. The Saints' may be the most beat up team in the league right now, and they will have Practice Squaders playing significant roles for them tonight. Plus, New Orleans will be playing its third game in 11 days. Denver has some injury issues also (Patrick Surtain II is out), but it is in better shape. I am not a believer in Spencer Rattler, and I expect the Broncos' defense to force multiple turnovers. I considered playing this at -2.5, but bumping to -3 came with a better price.

There's just enough wonkiness present in the Sean Payton Bowl to take the points with his former team against his mercurial current one. The Broncos have been impressive but this is not a team you want to lay points with on the road. The Saints are a MASH unit on the offensive side but still produced 27 points last week and should be improved in this one.

I would probably blindly fade any NFL team playing their 3rd game in 11 days. Truly unfair scheduling by the NFL this year. This Saints team is missing their WR1 & WR2, and will be starting a backup rookie QB and their 3rd string Center. Although I was impressed by rookie QB Spencer Rattler in his debut, I think he may have a much tougher second outing against this Denver defense. Even without star CB Patrick Surtain, Denver's defense should be the best unit on the field tonight. I also give Sean Payton the coaching advantage, and that could prove to be the difference in this ugly Thursday game.

Rattler showed off some nice mobility in his debut, escaping the pocket and going for 4 carries for 27 yards. Rattler may be forced to use his wheels even more in this matchup on the short week, against a Broncos defensive line that gets good pressure. The Saints offensive line is on their third-string Center, with lingering injuries to their best linemen Erik McCoy, and backup center Cesar Ruiz. I can see Rattler taking off several times tonight, and we of course always have the possibility of QB sneaks and kneels to get us over this low total.

I’ll take a flier here on the fact there is no real deep threat for the Saints. No Shaheen no Olave and a rookie QB who may be very cautious tonight. Small play.

Nix can activate his legs and its become a necessary element of a run game that can't get much going in the traditional sense. Nix has a run of 11 yards or more in 5 of 6 games - that gets us almost halfway home - and he has 25 or more in 4 of 6 games. Saints like to play man defense, which leaves them back to the QB and allows them to get chunks of yards on the ground. Sean Payton wont want this kid chucking it around in a loud dome. Baker Mayfield just scrambled for 30 yards vs this defense on a day he was chucking it around for 5 TDs; wouldn't be shocked if Nix goes for 40+ here.

Broncos rookie QB Bo Nix has topped this in three of six games (half-yard shy in a fourth) and comes off a career-high 61 yards rushing Sunday. The Saints run a lot of man coverage on defense, which generally means a lot of running room for mobile QBs if they can escape the pocket. Baker Mayfield just ran for 29 yards on three carries against this defense, and he's not nearly as mobile as Nix.

The Broncos running game hasn't taken off, but Bo Nix is scampering quite well. He has 3 of their 4 rushing TDs, Sean Payton likes running QBs in the redzone, taking future HOF QB Drew Brees off the field for Taysom Hill in his NO days. With a kid QB, on the road, in a Payton revenge game, in a loud dome, how much will he want Nix to sling it in the RZ? Especially given his strong the Denver D is, and knowing the Saints are starting a rookie QB themselves. Saints have a below avg EPA defending QB scrambles. I like the value here.

Obligatory Under here. As most who regularly follow me know, I am betting 1U on every primetime Under this season (save for a few discretionary "passes"). This one I will bet now, at 37.5. Important to get it with the hook, could be the difference. I am slightly concerned about the Broncos loss of elite CB Patrick Surtain. However, with both Saints WR's Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed out, I think Denver's other star CB Riley Moss and company can do their job. Offensive line injuries for the Saints continue to hurt them. Things won't get easier against a Denver defense that ranks 7th in defensive DVOA. My final score prediction is 20-17 Broncos and we cash this Under by the hook.

The Broncos head to New Orleans as road favorites on a short week. I expect them to simplify the playbook, and target RB Javonte Williams on short routes frequently. Broncos rookie QB Bo Nix will face off against the Saints backup, rookie QB Spencer Rattler, in a matchup that may simply come down to who can make less mistakes. Williams is a reliable target, hauling in 5 receptions for 50 yards in Week 5 against the Raiders, and 5 for 48 in Week 2 against Steelers. Williams has 4+ targets in 4/6 games this season. Let's get some check downs and screens, and cash this one early. I would consider laddering this up on Alt receiving yards props to 50+

The Saints' injury situation has steamed the Broncos side of the spread all week, and now that it's at the full field goal I'm going to take the home 'dog. Spencer Rattler was solid in the first half last week, even after Chris Olave got hurt, and Rashid Shaheed caught just one of his seven targets. I think the offense can have at least some success moving the ball through Alvin Kamara, the tight ends and the shorthanded WR corps. And why should Bo Nix and this Broncos offense be laying points on the road on what was a good defense early in the season lit up by some good offenses the last few weeks? The value has to be on the other side.

With the Saints down multiple receivers, there will be receiving production up for grabs. The betting focus will naturally gravitate to Alvin Kamara and Bub Means, but I want to get a piece of Juwan Johnson. His snap percentage grew over the first five weeks to the point that he's been on the field over 75% of the time the last two weeks (his first starts of the season), where he's caught all eight of his targets for 79 yards. Whereas with Means you have no idea if he'll be WR1 or WR3, Johnson should lead the team in tight end targets and get over this number against a defense giving up 45 receiving yards per game to tight ends.

Time to take the ugly Over at 36.5, where a 20-17 final score gets you a cashed ticket. While the focus is on the injuries to the Saints' offensive side of the ball, the Broncos are also missing a key piece with Patrick Surtain inactive. The Saints' defense has regressed significantly recently, and I expect that trend to continue on the short week. Spencer Rattler is mobile enough to extend plays offensively. I'm on the ugly Over.

The Saints will be missing their top two receivers in this game, and while a practice squad promotion could make the WR target distribution a bit of a mystery, it would be shocking if Kamara didn't see a ton of targets in this game. He's had at least eight targets and five receptions in three straight, all games where the Saints trailed a significant amount of time. The market expects the Saints to trail tonight with the Broncos being bet up to -3, so we can do the math. Unlike with many RBs in this situation, Kamara's ceiling for this prop is quite high, with seven career games of 10+ receptions, so we may have this in the bag by halftime.

The Saints are quite possibly the most injury ravaged team in the NFL and are playing their 3rd game in 11 days. Those injuries are at key positions including QB, WR and OL and that spells trouble for a Saints offense going up against a very solid Broncos defense (even without Surtain). If you're worried about the Broncos being on the road, remember that they stomped the Bucs in Tampa and went into New York and took down the Jets. This is a very tough spot for Spencer Rattler down so many of his offensive pieces.

Key injuries aren't just limited to the offense. Defenses can greatly miss impact players, too. Take Denver last Sunday, when star CB Pat Surtain II went out with a concussion on the first play vs. the Chargers. The Bronco defense, which could effectively cut off half of the field with Surtain in the lineup, had to adjust, and Justin Herbert was able to take advantage of the whole field. We mention this because rookie Spencer Rattler is likely in at QB again for the Saints, and needing every advantage, gets a break tonight with no Surtain on the other side. Meanwhile, Bo Nix is making slow but steady progress at QB for Denver, which has gone over in its last two games. Play Broncos-Saints Over

Don't love backing a mediocre Denver team with an inconsistent rookie QB on the road and on a short week, but man the Saints are gutted by injuries: Derek Carr, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Taysom Hill, guard Cesar Ruiz and linebacker Pete Werner all will sit. I think even Archie Manning and Bum Phillips were on the injury report. The Broncos are without stellar CB Patrick Surtain II but are likely to get back two starters off IR in offensive tackle Mike McGlinchey and outside linebacker Baron Browning. You know Sean Payton will do whatever it takes to win in his return to New Orleans. Can't really justify playing -2.5 or -3 simply as points are going to be so scarce most likely.

The Saints tallied 27 points in the debut of rookie QB Spencer Rattler on Sunday, but the total is deceptive. Two of the three TDs were on a punt return and a 10-yard drive. Rattler barely exceeded a 50 percent completion rate and suffered two interceptions, along with five sacks. For his follow-up, Rattler copes with the absence of top two WRs Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olive, both injured. Denver's first-year QB, Bo Nix, has shown progress by baby steps. Going against the Denver D, ranked fourth overall and tied for second in touchdowns allowed, the Saints might never see the end zone.

Thursday night’s matchup between Denver and the Saints has a new established market for Saints rookie wide receiver Bub Means. After zero catches the entire season he caught five balls for forty five yards against the Bucs. Clearly, he has an established connection with Saints rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler. With Patrick Surtain’s status in doubt with a concussion, there will be opportunities for Means to build off last week’s performance. Play his over.

The Broncos will be missing All-Pro corner Patrick Surtain, but the injury situation is much worse for New Orleans (Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Pete Werner, Cesar Ruiz, Derek Carr). The Saints are playing their third game in 11 days, which should not be allowed. Just ask the Seahawks how well that went for them (0-3 SU and ATS). Spencer Rattler threw two INTs in his debut and now has to deal with Vance Joseph's blitzing scheme. Look for Denver to win by at least a field goal in Sean Payton's return to New Orleans.

I think we've got to focus on the defenses here especially New Orleans who allowed 277 yards rushing and 317 yards passing last week against the Buccaneers. Denver has the No. 4 ranked defense allowing 284 yards per game. Denver has covered all three of their road games winning two. Saints have lost four straight to outstanding teams like the Eagles, Falcons, Chiefs, and Buccaneers. You have a good defense against Spencer Rattler in his second start, that's the angle I'm betting on. Plus, Sean Payton's ego will play a major role against his former team. Denver to win.

Bo Nix has only gone under this number twice. First v the Jets when Denver only ran 54 plays in the rain against the slow play of ARodgers in a game where Denver had more runs called than pass plays. And second, in a game v Vegas where Den was up 24 in the 4th AND Nix completed over 70% (no incompletions holds down attempts). And even in these two he had 25 and 27 respectively. Plus, New Orleans plays games with a high number of plays and teams throw more v NOLA than they average. Over

Broncos coach Sean Payton said that with Josh Reynolds on IR, he wants to take a long look at rookie wideouts Troy Franklin and Devaughn Vele behind No. 1 receiver Courtland Sutton. "We are not waiting to redshirt these guys. We will continue to see each week their involvement in the plan and how they fit. That is how you get confidence and get experience," Payton said. I like Vele's matchup better because he plays in the slot. The last two slot receivers to face the Saints, Chris Godwin and JuJu Smith-Schuster, combined to catch 18 passes on 21 targets for 255 yards. Look for Vele to clear this low number.

Vele has played in two games this season, catching 12 passes for 117 yards on 14 targets. He has gone over this total both times and with Josh Reynolds on IR, Vele was Denver's primary slot receiver last week. Slot receivers have killed the Saints and it feels like the market still hasn't caught up to Vele's usage in the Broncos' offense.

Spencer Rattler is going to be under pressure here. Vance Joseph is dialing up more blitzes than any DC in the NFL, and with a kid making his second start, expect him to bring it on over half the dropbacks Thurs. Kamara is a steady hand in the pass game and often the best checkdown or screen option. He caught 5 of 8 targets in Rattler's first start, he has hit this in 4 of the 6 games this season. Broncos have faced the third-most passes to RBs in the NFL and allowed the 2nd most completions (39). Saints need to keep drives alive, and getting it into their feature back's hands seems like a smart way to go.

Two rookie QBs in unchartered territory on a short week. Both teams led by their defense. These are the top two RZ defenses in the NFL. Broncos allowing just 16 points per game and held to 16 or less in three of the last five. Saints have 76 points in their last four games after exploding for 92 in their first two. Spencer Rattler suffered against the blitz in his first start and Broncos blitzing more than any team. Broncos games averaging just 34.67 points, 30th in NFL. Games that have gone over for these teams have been because of opposing offenses but I don’t think that will be the case here. Both okay with trying long field goals. Broncos have second worst third-down offense.