Because of Bufflalo's run-first approach, Allen has only clipped this number once so far, in Monday's blowout of Jacksonville. But with the top-ranked Ravens run defense (50 ypg) no doubt determined to put the Bills in long down and distance, look for Allen to rely on the quick-hitting, short passing game to pile up yards and clip this modest number.

The Bills have been an offensive juggernaut, and Lamar Jackson is the reigning NFL MVP. 14-10 hits this number, and I think these teams will go well over that on SNF.

Buffalo looks fabulous so far but also has played a pretty easy schedule (only saw a half or so of Miami's Tua Tagovailoa). Baltimore has played a much tougher slate and could be 3-0 instead of 1-2. Avoiding 0-3 with last week's win in Dallas was huge, but it basically all would be for naught by losing here to fall to 1-3. Buffalo is again without key defenders in LB Terrel Bernard and cornerback Taron Johnson. Ravens center Tyler Linderbaum, one of the best in the business, was questionable but will play. Baltimore has an NFL-best 20-3 record in home prime-time games since John Harbaugh arrived in 2008.

Surprise, surprise... Another primetime Under for me. The Bills offense is due for regression after their 47-point drubbing over the Jaguars. The Ravens are perhaps the league's best defense against the run, which may create issues for Bills OC Joe Brady's run-heavy game plans. Both teams having dangerous offenses, but also veteran-led defenses with intelligent zone schemes. More than 70% of the public betting tickets are on the Over, yet the total has moved down a point from the opening line of 47.5. Reverse line movement... I'll take the Under.

The Bills have impressed thus far, getting out to a 3-0 start despite some key injuries and departures. They have pieced it together on both sides of the ball, and have been efficient and well-coached. However, I'm ready to sell high on the Bills in this spot. They are publicly-backed underdogs, which is always a red flag in NFL betting. Buffalo's early success has come against the Cardinals, the Dolphins (who lost their QB in Q3 in that game), and the injury-ridden Jaguars. The Ravens are #1 in defensive rush success rate, and may stymie the Bills ground-heavy offense. When playing as an underdog or a favorite of less than 3 in the regular season, Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is 17-2 ATS in his career.

There seems to be some doubt -- not from the public -- about the Bills’ hot start given their competition, but don’t get it twisted, they are for real. Still, this feels like a perfect sell-high spot for a team that’s best opponent to date was a middle-of-the-road Cardinals squad in Week 1. The Ravens found some grit against the Cowboys and get a much-needed primetime home game here. Lamar Jackson is 14-7 ATS in such situations, and the Ravens are 7-1 ATS against the Bills in Baltimore. Ultimately, between Jackson and Derrick Henry, the dominant run offense will be too much for Buffalo to handle. The Ravens should be able to limit possessions and win by a field goal – at least.

We know that the Bills love to run the football these days, but the Ravens rush defense is solid. It's the Ravens pass defense that is a pretty big issue, and making matters worse, they haven't been getting pressure on the QB. Look for Josh Allen to dink and dunk down the field with a relatively clean pocket and get over this completion prop.

Neither of these teams is having problems scoring points in 2024. For the Bills, they've hit 31 or more in each of the first three games, indeed tallying at a better than 37 ppg clip. For the Ravens, they're coming in at 24 ppg, but on the upswing after a 28-25 win at Dallas last week. Now that Derrick Henry (151 YR at Dallas) appearsin gear, the Baltimore offense has some chilling balance, as Lamar Jackson has never had a RB threat to work with like Henry. The Bills are not likely to go easily, however, and Josh Allen will believe he can trade points. With these two combining for 61 ppg thus far, clearing 46 looks very achievable. Play Bills-Ravens "Over"

The Ravens are an awful fourth quarter against the Raiders from being considered one of the league's best teams. However, the Bills have looked like the league's single best team through three weeks, and I'll take points with that team any day of the week. The Buffalo offense is executing at a high level with Josh Allen throwing no picks through three games, and the defense has been incredible considering the key injuries suffered. Baltimore's offensive line may be a problem if Tyler Linderbaum (questionable) can't go. At worst, I think the Ravens win a close game, so tease the Bills if you can, but I'm taking the points either way.

The Ravens got a much-needed win last week to avert an 0-3 start and now they need to build on their improved form with a win on their home field against a Bills team that has been better than most observers anticipated but could be in for a letdown spot against what should be a motivated Baltimore club.

Buffalo is the talk of the league right now and for good reason given how dynamic the offense has looked with new weapons. However a deeper dive of the Bills' three wins shows victories against teams limited offensively. The Ravens have been much better than their record shows, boasting the top offense in the league just a few plays away from being undefeated and a 3.5-point favorite here. I'll buy the dip in Baltimore and sell the Bills at the market peak with a defense still down three projected starters in what should be the game of the day.

The Bills are now 3-0 and 2-1 against the spread with the only mishap being against the Cardinals who they were -6.5 and won by six. They're almost perfect on the season and their punter is seldom used. They just score and score quickly. Baltimore is surely an upgrade from who they played so far but it doesn't take away their confidence and ability to score with their no-name offensive weapons. Josh Allen has thrown for seven touchdowns and no interceptions. Baltimore isn't quite themselves yet and I don't think the Bills are the team that they get straight against. Let's not forget that the Raiders beat them two weeks ago. Bills win.

The last two weeks Buffalo has run far less plays than projected yet Kincaid has exceeded this number. Great value here. Take the receptions too

Bills linebacker Dorian Williams produced a ridiculous 23.8 percent tackle rate last Monday vs. Jacksonville. That enabled him to finish with 10 tackles despite sitting out late in the blowout. For the season he has a way-above-average 19.5 percent tackle rate. Now he faces a Ravens team that rushes at the seventh-highest rate and targets the middle of the field. Look for Williams to register at least nine combined tackles Sunday night.

Josh Allen is the best football player on the planet right now and he is playing behind what might be the best OL. They are super balanced and facing a secondary that has allowed the most passing yards and is particularly vulnerable in middle of field where Bills feast on crossers. Ravens may have to flip their struggling OL again due to injuries and Bills pass rush is legit; Chris Jones and Maxx Crosby have already wrecked games against the Ravens. Bills overcame 10 point second-half deficit in BAL in '22. Roquan Smith and Kyle Hamilton don't look totally right. Ravens getting very little out of their TEs and WR in pass game. And Justin Tucker clearly aint himself anymore as Ravens special teams struggle,

Baltimore is a dominant run offense at home that should force JAllen into a TO or 2. Desperate. They win

The Baltimore Ravens have faced a much tougher schedule (No. 6 versus No. 24) and will aim to get their season back on track. John Harbaugh has thrived in prime-time home games against undefeated teams. Buffalo has one less day to prepare after winning easily on MNF. Buffalo has allowed the seventh-most rush yards per play (4.7), while the Ravens have allowed the fewest (2.8). Buffalo is vulnerable in the middle of their defense, and the Ravens can exploit this weakness. The Bills have scored 112 points in their last three games and now play a road game. Strong system on Baltimore. Lamar Jackson is 23-7 against the spread as an underdog or a favorite of three points or less.

Shakir has caught every target from Josh Allen this season, the Ravens are best run team in NFL and Josh Allen isn't leaning into running as much with his left hand issue. All of which points me to this slot demon vs a broken Ravens secondary, who especially cannot cover the middle of the field and have been killed on crossers - Shakir's specialty. He has TDs in 4 of the last 5 games, including the playoffs. Allen has a great feel with him in beating zone and maybe Nate Wiggins could run with him in man, but Shakir would cook the rest of this bunch.

Justice Hill is the Ravens' pass-catching back, and this is a great matchup for him. Buffalo allows the third-most receiving yards to opposing running backs; the Bills' linebackers are shaky in coverage. Hill is averaging four targets and has cleared this number in two of three games.

What gets lost in the way the Ravens finish games, is how they actually start games. This is still a very good team with a 2x MVP at QB. Buffalo's Josh Allen is playing some of the best ball of his career so far this season. In what could be an AFC Title game preview, I like the Ravens to close this one out with a Justin Tucker kick.

We keep riding this for a nice payout. He catches everything thrown his way and we had this last week then third catch negated by a questionable penalty. Lamar leaning into screen game now and with OL still under scrutiny and facing a legit pass rush, there will be opportunities for the Ravens best pass protecting back. Also wins big for them in 2-min offense. Already has 10 grabs this season. Still sees a good amount of snaps even with Derrick Henry here. Lamar will have way more passing attempts this week, too. Shoulda hit last week and he threw just 15 times in the game.

I’m going right back to backing Dalton Kincaid. Ultimately I view this prop sub 40 yards as a discount. It’s also a great matchup versus a Baltimore secondary that’s been dismal through 3 weeks. The Ravens rank bottom 5 in EPA allowed per dropback, in addition to surrendering 290 yards to opposing TEs (2nd most in the NFL). Josh Allen is playing like an MVP but he hasn’t been pushed and as a result we’ve seen minimal passing volume. I view this as a possible spike week after Jake Ferguson and Brock Browers torched the Ravens in back to back weeks.

The Ravens found the right mix to their run game on Sunday and it requires multiplicity and Lamar running the option game. He already has 254 yards rushing and this is another big spot where he will activate his legs. Bills have a -1.91 EPA vs run (28th) and Kyler Murray gained 57 on 5 carries vs them in Week 1. He's built for speed this year and expect several explosive runs with Derrick Henry's presence now being fully felt as well on the ground.

There is a hole in the middle of the Ravens pass defense right now, and they are getting killed underneath and on crossers. Cook should find plenty of fertile territory here, with both Roquan Smith and Kyle Hamilton looking lost at times with the D under a new coordinator. Cook is over this in 2 of 3 games and had 4 in a half of football Mon before the blowout kept him on sidelines. Cook is over this in 5 of the last 9 games and 5 of the last 7 on the road. Bills leaning heavily into short and intermediate pass game and Ravens have lowest YPC allowed in NFL; screens perfect way to supplement it here.

If there has been a better 1-2 team in recent years, it doesn't come to mind. Baltimore boasts not only the league's snazziest yards per play average on offense but also the puniest yards per carry yield on defense. The Ravens catch Buffalo on a short week after its Monday night gem at home against the lowly Jaguars. They need to slow down early MVP frontrunner Josh Allen and get slumping PK Justin Turner straightened out. Both are eminently doable. As impressive as Buffalo has been, its opponents are a combined 2-7 outright.