Aaron Rodgers tries to return to relevancy. Aside from missing 2023, Rodgers was not his dominant self in 2022. He has not thrown for two touchdowns in a game across his last six starts. He has not thrown for 300+ yards in a game since Dec. 12, 2021. New York is more than just Rodgers, but he’s supposed to be the difference maker, and there’s a bit too much belief in that. Meanwhile, San Francisco has routinely pounded lesser opponents early in seasons under Kyle Shanahan. Not having Christian McCaffrey is an issue, but it doesn’t change the pick. I like -3.5 (-105) but look for -3 (-120 or better) before kickoff.

This was a game that features two excellent run games and defenses. Well, entering this matchup the 49ers will be without their best offensive player in RB Christian McCaffrey. This will put a lot of pressure on Brock Purdy and the passing game, which then leaves them susceptible to the vicious pass rush of the Jets.

Absence makes the heat grow fonder and QB-WR ties run deep. There's a ton of buzz around the Rodgers and Wilson connection but in the past we've seen Aaron gravitate towards players he trusts. I don't think we're talking about Lazard going nuclear but in a game where all the other former Iowa St players are getting the buzz the grizzled veteran is poised to exceed oddsmakers expectations with a workmanlike 3 catches for 28 yards tonight.

Going back to old reliable with some rusty QB play and defenses that may have their edge over their offensive counterparts. Aaron Rodgers will see live action for the first time in a year against a plus defensive line. Meanwhile, the 49ers offense didn't have an entire camp with Williams, Aiyuk, Purdy, and CMC (who was just ruled inactive). Both seem poised to take a few series to get rolling and combine that with how slow the Hackett/Rodgers offense looked the last time they were together creating an angle I can't pass up tonight.

The Jets will no doubt be in trouble if Aaron Rodgers and Garrett Wilson can't combine to clip this number. The other options lie in injury-prone veterans Mike Williams and Allen Lazard, and Rodgers has comfort with the latter because of their time together in Green Bay. But in his last full season in Green Bay with Davante Adams as the WR1, this number was clipped 12 times. In other words, Rodgers knows how to find his top target and this is specifically what he brought to New York to do.

Aaron Rodgers hasn't played in a year, the 49ers had some injury/holdout issues in camp, and the overall quality of play in Week 1 hasn't been there. I'm betting on that trend to continue on MNF.

This price isn't ideal, but the market seems to have the same thought process I'm having with this one. Sauce Gardner might be the best corner in the game, and D.J. Reed is no slouch. Plus the Jets have depth at the position. I love the spot for Kittle from a DFS/fantasy perspective, so I'm rolling with him here too. Look for a big night out of the former Iowa star.

San Francisco was 7-2 ATS at home last season. The Jets were only 2-5-1 ATS the spread on the road in 2023, but that was without Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers is 10-0 SU and 7-3 ATS on Monday Night Football since 2014. New York, on paper, vastly improved on both sides of the ball and still have an above average secondary to contain the 49ers passing attack. San Francisco had a lot of distractions in the offseason while the Jets have everyone healthy and ready to go. Teams in week one that lost in the Super Bowl last season are 5-17 ATS.

The Jets' corners are elite, making this a better spot for George Kittle than Brandon Aiyuk. New York is far more vulnerable over the middle. With Aiyuk just returning from a contract holdout, and Deebo Samuel potentially involved in the run game, look for Kittle to draw ample targets and clear this number.

This isn't an ideal matchup for the Jets' offense, but I do believe Aaron Rodgers can have some success against the 49ers' secondary if he has time. For Williams to go over there, he'll likely only need 2-3 catches, possibly even 1. I like the chances of that happening.

I'm fading Aiyuk tonight because I question several things: is he in the proper shape after a preseason holdout? Will the Jets defense keep QB Brock Purdy somewhat in check? And will Sauce Gardner, the league's highest ranked cover corner, primarily guard San Francisco's top receiver? Too many questions for me and I can easily see the 49ers new $100M+ man being a non-factor in the season opener.

Zuerlein finished tied for the second most made field goals in the league last season (35) despite the Jets having a poor offense. He went over 1.5 made FGs in 11 of 17 games last season and I could see New York stalling in the red zone multiple times tonight. The 49ers gave up multiple attempts in 11 of 20 games in 2023-24 so at fair odds, we'll take our chances on this prop with the Jets kicker.

Rodgers is a fade for me in part for two reasons: he hasn't played a full game since January 2023 and he's facing a top notch 49ers defense. Expect the Jets to have a run-heavy gameplan and assuming the game doesn't get out of hand, I could very well see him below 200 yards passing.

Doesn't Aaron Rodgers have to be a bit rusty? He hasn't basically played in a game since Dec. 28, 2022, and he wasn't all that great in that season for Green Bay. The Jets' offensive line was a major issue last year -- which we saw in Rodgers' very limited action -- and now has three new starters, so that group could take a while to jell. That's what happens when you don't play starters in the preseason. Look at how bad Atlanta's Kirk Cousins, for example, looked Sunday vs. Pittsburgh after coming off a major 2023 injury and not playing in the preseason like Rodgers. The Jets are 2-16 in their past 18 September games.

Aaron Rodgers has still yet to play a full snap with the New York Jets. Coming off an ACL injury, I expect him to make a safety a priority. When DE Nick Bosa is coming around the edge, look for Rodgers to find Hall in the short passing game. Screen action, check-downs, and "dinking and dunking" to Hall could end up being an effective game plan against this 49ers defense, whose pass rush ranked 4th best last season. In the Jets final six games to end their 2023 season, Hall went 4-2 to the Over on this number, crushing it with stat lines of 12/96 & 8/86 in two of those games. Hall should be a go-to target for Aaron Rodgers in Week 1.

In a game featuring the high-flying 49ers offense, 43.5 seems to be a low total that will surely attract over bettors. However, the betting splits now have it looking like a "Pros Vs. Joes" spot. More than 70% of the total betting tickets are on the Over, but more than 70% of the MONEY is on the Under. This total originally opened at 46, and the market has respected the Under money to move this down a full 2.5 points. There is still value playing the Under above this key number of 43. Both of these defenses finished Top 5 in defensive DVOA last season. Over the last two seasons, Primetime Unders are 80-49, hitting at nearly a 60% clip.

The 49ers were able to get deals done with WR Brandon Aiyuk and OL Trent Williams at the 11th hour, but their absence in training camp could create a lack of chemistry to start the year. Because of this, Aiyuk will be limited on a snap count. 2023 Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey is still dealing with an achilles injury that may hinder his play as well. Outside of Trent Williams, San Fran's offensive is fairly inexperienced. The Jets menacing D-line pressure and lockdown secondary can keep them in any game. The Superbowl hangover is real.. for the loser. Since 2000, Superbowl losers are 5-19 ATS in Week 1 the following season. +4.5 is too wide.

Barring another unfortunate injury like the Achilles tendon tear on the first series of down vs. the Bills in last season's opener, we finally get to see Aaron Rodgers in a Jets uniform. But is there justification for the hype? Remember, it's been four years since Rodgers was involved in a playoff win (2020). And in his last full season of action (2022), he didn't even lead the Packers to the playoffs. Moreover, sources are suggesting possible discord in the locker room, with rumors of one set of rules for Rodgers, and one for everyone else. Meanwhile, aside from standard contract matters, it looks mostly business as usual for the Niners, with Brock Purdy and much of the supporting cast still in place. Play 49ers

This number seems artificially high. Last year when Brock Purdy almost won the MVP and was crazy efficient he exceeded 22 completions just ONCE. So, unless he becomes even more efficient or the 49ers run abnormally high number of plays I don’t see him going over. And with the Jets being able to run the ball a bit, the time of possession should be relatively close.

As I have mentioned 2,349 times on my show…Hall led all RBs in catches last year. 4 is a reasonable number. Most books are now hanging 4.5. The only other 3.5 is offering at -160. So let’s grab the value. Half unit.

Breece Hall is a three-down back, the centerpiece of the Jets' offense, and Aaron Rodgers will rely on him to move the chains. Hall caught 76 passes last season. With the 49ers' ability to generate pressure and Rodgers coming off a serious injury, I'm expecting a lot of quick throws to Hall.

My very first bet in the off-season was betting the Jets to win the AFC East at +240 as I thought the number was disresectful (it was). I think this line is an indication that the market still doesn't know how to treat the Jets who are now with Aaron Rodgers. The Jets should be solid on both sides of the ball, and while the same can be said of the 49ers, they've got some issues right now in the Front 7 and with some offensive skill players. I think the Jets will move the ball with the run and short area passing game. Should be a close game.

The Jets should be drastically better offensively this season and still have one of the best defensive units in the league. I like the upgrades on the offensive line, a healthy Breece Hall, and the weapons Aaron Rodgers has in the passing game. My simulations set this line at -2 for San Francisco. Take the points

The Niners will have to score four TDs or three and two FGs….I love that this is over the key number of 24….jets D is going to fly around and CMC may not be 100%

The 49ers are getting back Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams after the team agreed to new deals with both, while the Jets likely won't have Haason Reddick as he continues his holdout. With Reddick, I'd say this line should be on the other side of 3, and without him, I think we're still getting value. Aiyuk and Williams won't necessarily be in top shape after spending camp holding out, and the 49ers offensive line is going to have a tough time against the Jets regardless of Reddick's availability. The Jets also have a top-tier secondary to limit the 49ers passing game. The Jets offense should have success with an upgraded offensive line, and I expect them to keep this score close.

Kittle led all NFL TEs at home with 606 receiving yards and he did it in just seven games. He averaged 86.6/game; next best with Travis Kelce at 71.6. Kittle averaged nearly 16 yards/catch at home; the NFL average for TEs at home was 10.6. He was way more involved in pass game at home and more of a blocker on road. Brock Purdy had almost a 150 QB rating throwing to TEs at home last season. Jets have so many other playmakers to worry about, through they were stout for TEs last year. This number just way too low for me for one of my favorite props from last season.

My ratings tell me that the 49ers are the best team in the NFL and they are seven points better on the neutral field than the Jets. For home field we give the 49ers 1.5 points, so we're looking at a game that should be -8.5 and we can take a half off for Trent Williams not being there so we got a game at 8, but it's showing 3.5. What's going on? Has Aaron Rodgers been playing that I don't know about? Even if I know that Aaron Rodgers is 100% and has been winning ball games over the last year, this is still the 49ers with all their guys and their top rating.