Smith turns 26 years old today -- what better way to celebrate his birthday than a big night on Thursday Night Football? Birthdays aside, this is a nice spot for the 2020 Heisman Trophy winner. I expect Smith to finish with closer to 75 receiving yards here, and he has the potential to come close to hitting this number on one play against Washington's secondary.

The Eagles have done a nice job of starting fast and jumping out to leads during their current winning streak. I expect them to cover the 1H spread for the third straight week.

I was hoping for -3 here, but -3.5 will do as well. I love Jayden Daniels and it's clear Washington finally has its man. Regardless, I really like the way Philadelphia has been playing during their current five-game winning streak. The Eagles have offensive weapons all over the field, and I believe that will be the difference on Thursday night. I like the Eagles to win by 6+ at home on the short week.

Zach Ertz has just one TD catch on the year, but it's the former long-time Eagles tight end's first game back in Philly since being traded to Arizona during the 2021 season. He was a huge fan favorite in Philadelphia. I have to believe that Dan Quinn/Jayden Daniels know this and at least will dial up one play near the goal-line for Ertz. At this price, why not?

In 10 games, Daniels has gone over this number 5 times. But in examining the 5 overs, if we take out games he has at least an 80% completion percentage, or 38 attempts (and he needed a Hail Mary drive to eeek over and finish with 21) he is 1/6. And that one was a shootout v Baltimore where he still only had 24. Under. 1.5 units

The Eagles are trending nicely. Some will say they are peaking, but that's tough to believe yet given they skated by the Jaguars (failed to cover) and took advantage of a limited Cowboys team. Jayden Daniels has been immense for the Commanders, but his protection is banged up, and it's a lot to ask for him to deliver on the road in a short week like this. Washington's poor run defense toughened up against Najee Harris, but Saquon Barkley is much more elusive with Jalen Hurts having far more weapons than the Steelers did. Not my strongest play of the week, but we always try to take island games. It's an easier call at -3 (if you want to aim for a live line play).

Philadelphia is 1-2 ATS at home this season. As an away team, the Commanders are 5-0 ATS and are tied for the best cover team in the league with Pittsburgh. On paper, the Eagles have one of, if not, the best teams in the NFL. However, at home, they only have a +2.7 point differential. The Commanders are the best story in the league this year, behind Jayden Daniels and despite them not having the best defense, they’ve been simply outperforming teams offensively. In a divisional battle between two above average teams, it might be best to have the points in our back pockets.

The Eagles rank No. 1 in net yards per pass attempt, so this is a difficult matchup for Noah Brown. If any Washington wideout breaks out on Thursday Night Football, it should be Terry McLaurin, who has drawn 66 targets to Brown's 38. Zach Ertz also should draw more targets in this matchup.

This matchup has big implications for the NFC East. Philadelphia will return LT Jordan Mailata, one of the best linemen in the game. Look for the Eagles to pound the rock on offense. Nick Sirriani will want to control time of possession, and keep Jayden Daniels off the field. Philadelphia’s improved defense ranks 7th in DVOA all of a sudden. Vic Fangio’s secondary will be the best that Washington has faced perhaps all season long. Washington’s defense isn’t good, but Dan Quinn has them improving each week. I’ll take the Under in this Primetime outdoor divisional clash.

DeVonta Smith was barely a factor last week against the Cowboys with his team earning a blowout win. That also happened in a blowout win against the Giants earlier in the year. In every other game, Smith has recorded at least 64 yards, typically finishing in the 76-85 range. I don't expect this to be an Eagles boat race, so I expect his normal level of involvement where he'll be around 80 yards receiving. I also like +210 on 75 receiving yards available at BetMGM.

The veteran TE has become a safety net over the middle for rookie QB Jayden Daniels. In what rates to be a neutral or trailing game script, he should get his share of looks. Moreover, the former longtime Eagle is facing his former team and it wouldn't be surprising if the Commanders make a concerted effort to get him involved.

For a few years now, the Eagles have been a great first half team, especially strong in the second quarter. In a huge home spot against a division rival I like this number at this price. Most books are at -3 or -3.5 now.

Saquon Barkley isn't used much in the passing game; he's been targeted 11 times over the past five games. This price is steep, but I bet it because of Barkley's role and this specific matchup. Washington gives up the fewest catches to opposing running backs. In fact, over the past five games, opposing running backs have totaled five catches (on six targets) vs. the Commanders. That's not the average, that's the total.

I’m gonna try and thread the needle here taking over 9 1/2 points for the first quarter but under 24 1/2 for the first half. That way key numbers like.10, 13, 14, 20, 21, 23 and 24 all help me. I only get hurt with a low first and crazy high second quarter.

I’m gonna try and thread the needle here taking over 9 1/2 points for the first quarter but under 24 1/2 for the first half. That way key numbers like.10, 13, 14, 20, 21, 23 and 24 all help me. I only get hurt with a low first and crazy high second quarter.

When you look at the Eagles lately, it seems like they’ve gotten back to letting Jalen Hertz get the ball at the goal line. He is priority number one and has scored in four straight games. Let’s ride this

Zach Ertz has become a consistent receiver on this team. The over is 6-3 since he became the established starting TE in Week 2. The line is based on 18% of Jayden Daniels 19.5 completion line, but the Model has him at slightly higher (20%) of completions and projects 21 completions for Daniels. So, he can hit the over if either of these projections is true.

Just asking the average here. Saquon Barkley has gone over this line with just rushing yards alone in 3 of his last 4 games. I like adding the receiving yards for insurance incase they are playing from behind and want to use him as a receiving back. While the Commanders defense is improved overall, this defensive line is actually looking worse, up to 4.8 yards per carry allowed. Either games script should support this prop, and we have him projected for 124 combined.

Eagles QB Jalen Hurts has thrown a 40+ yard pass in five consecutive games, and in 7/9 games this season. Although the Commanders defense has shown improvement lately, their secondary continues to get burnt by big plays. Look for Philadelphia to establish their run game, which will force the Commanders to stack the box and make them vulnerable against the play-action pass. Hurts should be able to connect with AJ Brown or Devonta Smith on a deep shot against these Commanders DB’s. If not, we always have the possibility of Saquon Barkley juking the entire defense out of their shoes and taking a screen pass for 50 yards.

Listen to the venerable WIP in the Delaware Valley this week, and you might think it's a Taylor Heinicke-led Washington entering the Linc tonight; Eagles fans don't seem to consider the 7-3 Commanders as much of a threat. They ought to think again, because the Birds haven't been able to cover the spread the last three vs. lesser Washington sides, much less this revived edition under new HC Dan Quinn and LSU Heisman QB Jayden Daniels, who has been getting more MVP mention than Jalen Hurts (who hasn't gotten any). We also remind Howard Eskins's listeners that the Birds are 0-3 vs. the spread at the Linc this season, a spread slump at home that has now reached 0-6 since last December. Play Commanders

Washington comes in with the No. 4 ranked offense and a 7-3 record, covering seven of the games, and going over seven of the games. There's no doubt that they've been improved and only have four turnovers on the year, but they've had a very easy schedule in that all seven of the teams they beat are bad except maybe Cincinnati. The Eagles are just fighting their way winning their last five in a row. The Eagles seem to be getting better every week as opposed to last year when they got worse as the weeks went by. I think the Eagles are going to win on the basis of their second-ranked defense that allows only 274 yards per game. Eagles to cover.

Jalen Hurts has scored at least one rushing TD in four straight for a total of eight n that span as the Eagles continue to largely ignore Saquon Barkley near the goal line. I sure don't think the Commanders will be keeping Philly out of the end zone tonight. Also think Hurts may want to show the young pup Jayden Daniels who is still running the NFC East show at quarterback.

While AJ Brown could certainly make a big impact tonight, six receptions is just a big ask for the alpha WR1. Brown has just six receptions in 1/6 games this season. This is two fold as he’s primarily targeted deep down the field, in addition to the Eagles being a low volume passing attack/run heavy. He also has a healthy Dallas Goedert back to eat into his target share. Washington’s defense is also a significant run funnel, in addition to grading out the best pass D in NFL since Week 4 according to EPA per dropback.

The Eagles have a strong home-field advantage in this must-win game, which is likely the deciding game in the NFC East race, especially considering the Commanders' remaining schedule. Since Week 5, the Eagles have boasted the NFL's best defense in terms of EPA per play. Washington is most vulnerable against the run, which is promising for Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley and should set up big opportunities for A.J. Brown in play-action. This line should be at least -3, requiring a margin of 4 or more to cover.

Washington's defense has been aggressive and will likely have no choice but to stay agressive by bringing pressure and trying to contain the run game. This aggression will leave an already suspect secondary vulnerable to one of the most dangerous big play threats in the game in A.J. Brown. Brown has hit this longest reception over in 5 of his 6 games played in 2024 and he should get it again today.

The Eagles have been arguably the best team in the league since coming out of their Week 5 bye at 5-0 and owning the NFL's best scoring and total defense in that span -- no doubt that Vic Fangio is a terrific DC. Jalen Hurts leads the NFL in total TDs during that streak as well. The Eagles are 6-0 when AJ Brown is in the lineup this season and averaging better than 30 points per compared to 1-2 when he was out injured. The Commanders perhaps can keep up offensively but likely not on defense.

I projected 10.5 here. Hurts is keeping the ball to finish drives and I see kneel down potential here and Hurts looks more spry and elusive running now than he did last year, for sure, and he was kinda limited early this season, too. He has at least 13 carries in four straight home games and the Eagles tend to lean even more into both the option game and the power runs for the QB with the home crowd behind them. In a battle for first place in the division – against a running QB in Jayden Daniels – I expect Hurts to be willing to get up and go himself.

So the Eagles offense is back to putting up points after a very slow start and Hurts is leading the way finishing drives with his legs. This has cashed in 3 of the last 4 games, and he has scored 8 rushing TDs over the last 4 games and Saquon doesn't get in the endzone that much for a guy that carries this offense between the 20s. Commanders run D is a joke and I love the potential return here. In a short week, in a big divisional game - keep the main thing the main thing and if it ain't broke, don't fix it. Hurts has generational rushing TD numbers for his career. This isn't a stretch.

This keeps cashing. Saquon Barkley does a ton of the work, but the QB is still the drive closer and The Tush Push is as popular as ever. Hurts scored twice more on Sunday and has cashed in four straight games and five of the last six. It’s their most dependable way of scoring TDs, and the Commanders run D is suspect.

The Commanders are dealing with key offensive line injuries in advance of Thursday Night Football. Starting left tackle Brandon Coleman, center Tyler Biadasz and right tackle Andrew Wylie all were listed as limited in Monday's practice estimation report. Wylie (shoulder) did not play vs. Pittsburgh, while Biadasz (ankle) suffered his injury against the Steelers but was able to return. Jayden Daniels faces a Philly defense that ranks No. 1 in EPA allowed since Week 6. Rookie Cooper DeJean has graded out as the NFL's best corner in coverage, per PFF. Eagles wideout A.J. Brown is not on the injury report, which is a great sign for Philly. The Eagles are 6-0 with Brown in the lineup, averaging 30.2 points.

Washington's offense struggled against maybe the best pass rush it's faced all season, and that's bumped this line up a half-point from the lookahead in some spots. The Eagles defense has great numbers but has faced a lot of easy opponents or offenses missing key players, and Jayden Daniels will be the first dual-threat QB they've faced. The Washington defense has been improving, though it was beat by a few Russell Wilson moonballs on Sunday, and adding Marshon Lattimore to the mix this week should be huge. Dan Quinn knows this opponent well, and once you throw in Nick Sirianni decisions that can lower Philly's scoring, I don't think this should be above 3.

The Commanders have had plenty of luck, but their offense is struggling in RZ and getting fewer explosive scores. The D is improving but Eagles OL can lean on them and attack their weaknesses on the ground. The stakes are high with the division lead on the line and I like the far superior experience of the Eagles in this spot. But that FG gives me pause, and Jalen Hurts not getting rid of the ball quickly enough gives me pause, so I’m just taking Philly to win the game at home and extend their five-game win streak. Jayden Daniels’s legs haven’t been a factor for them since he hurt his ribs on a 50-yard scramble nearly a month ago, something else to consider here.