I’m making this a 1.5 unit play. Dak should throw 2 in a game where I project Dallas to have 2.8 TDs and the Cowboy RBs have just 1 rush TD in 3 games. If Dallas has 3 offensive TDs they won’t have 2 rush. They might not have any

The Giants project 32 passes giving Robinson about 6.5 targets. I think he catches 4 of the 6 or 7. And if the Giants trail this target number could get to 7.5.

Wan'Dale Robinson drew eight targets last week, which is his average this season. With Malik Nabers expected to draw lots of attention, Robinson should clear this prop against a Dallas secondary that's struggled to contain No. 2 wideouts. Darius Slayton (thumb) is expected to play but he carries a questionable tag into the matchup.

Dak Prescott has thrown a combined 90 times over the past two weeks. The common denominator in those games? The Cowboys were chasing a double-digit deficit most of the game. On Thursday, the expectation is that Dallas plays with a lead and has a path to establishing a ground game against a Giants defense that was gashed by the Commanders and Vikings. New York currently ranks outside the top 20 in total run defense and outside the top 25 in yards per rush against. If Dallas finds offensive balance, the passing attempts should go Under this number.

New York is 3-0 to the under this season while the Cowboys are 3-0 to the over. Dallas’ offense is averaging 25.7 points per game and the Giants are averaging 15. New York will be without Dru Phillips and Adoree Jackson in an already weak secondary and Deonte Banks will have trouble containing CeeDee Lamb. The Cowboys have a lot of new pieces on their defense that is allowing 29.7 points per game. However, New York, most likely, won’t score that many points, but the defense is not that bad and may get some key stops when needed, despite a banged up secondary.

Another primetime Under worth backing. The public betting tickets are coming in heavily on the Over, yet the total has stayed firm on this key number of 45. Both of these defenses have struggled mightily to stop the run, which could create a ground-heavy game script. Although the Giants scored 21 points in a win over the Browns last week, they were shut out in the second half. New York's shaky offensive line will have their hands full against this Cowboys pass rush. If the Giants are playing from behind, I'm not sure that they can take full advantage of Dallas's weakness defending the run. I don't see the Giants contributing much offense to this game.

The Giants are banged up in the secondary, and CeeDee Lamb is as explosive as they come. The Giants looked like a completely different team, but my concern is them keeping up with the Cowboys if this game turns into a track meet (which it could with New York's secondary concerns). Plenty has been said and written about home underdogs covering in NFL games, but I think that trend won't apply here. Cowboys by 6+ on TNF.

Not an ideal price here, but Aubrey has been automatic since winning the Cowboys' kicking job. With Dallas' red zone struggles I expect at least two attempts for Aubrey on TNF. If that proves to be the case, he should hit this over with ease.

Much has been made about Dallas being at the bottom and run defense. But this is a sample size of three games, one which featured AKamara and the other DHenry and Lamar Jackson. For the Dallas run, this will be more similar to the game against Cleveland where they allowed 14 rushes for 54 yards. Last week, Devon Singletary got 43 of his 65 yards a single carry at the end of the game. The Cleveland Browns were trying to strip the football. Under

In the New York Giants last prime time game Wan’Dale Robinson was a huge catalyst in a late season win over the Green Bay Packers last year. With the attention rising on rookie stand out Malik Nabers, there are going to be increasing opportunities for Robinson. In week one he had twelve targets, and in last week’s victory over the Browns he caught seven of his eight targets. Play Robinson over in tonight’s TNF game.

This looks to be a solid bounce-back spot for the Cowboys, but when reevaluating the Giants’ season, their losses actually don’t look that bad. Same goes for Dallas against Baltimore as the 19-0 fourth quarter gave the Cowboys a boost entering a week of looking themselves in the mirror. Dallas’ biggest issue is defending the run; Baltimore and New Orleans are top six rushing offenses, while New York is 19th. The Cowboys’ other huge issue is running the ball; the Ravens and Saints are top eight rushing defenses, while the Giants are 23rd. New York is not positioned to take advantage of Dallas’ weaknesses. The Cowboys are 13-1 in the last 14 meetings with a total score margin of 89-17 (!) last season.

Sometimes recent series history is the best barometer. So it goes, we think, with this matchup after the Cowboys brutalized the Giants on both occasions last year, with an aggregate 89-17 scoreline across the pair of dominant Dallas wins, including a 40-0 romp at Met Life in the 2023 opener. True, the Dallas defense isn't impressing, and coordinator Mike Zimmer needs his troops to simply start tackling better, an issue vs. the Saints and Ravens and underlined last week when getting run over by Baltimore's Derrick Henry (151 YR). Brian Daboll's offense, however, is still erratic behind Daniel Jones, and has only scored 45 points across three games. Dak Prescott got very well vs. the G-Men a season ago and should again tonight. Play Cowboys

I like Dallas to put together a well-scripted drive to start the game. A big dose of CeeDee Lamb and their strong kicking game could be enough to secure a field goal. The price of +100 (50%) to win the quarter offers good value, as I have it at 55% or -122.

The Cowboys are an aggressive defense that like to play zone on the back end and that should favor Wan'Dale Robinson in terms of finding open spots in the short area. Add a likely negative game script and Robinson should get there on volume alone as he is already assuming a 25% target share (24 targets through three games). The Cowboys will put a target on Malik Nabers and that should open things up even more for Robinson.

The first half is often about who can convert and move the ball late in the second. Having the better FG K helps too. I like Dallas in both places

In the Cowboys running back tandem of Ezekiel Elliot and Rico Dowdle, I believe we should start to see Dowdle emerge as the lead back. Dallas has trailed heavily in each of their last two games, which has limited their ability to run the ball and involve Dowdle consistently. Dowdle should get his looks against the Giants, who are bottom of the league in defensive rush success rate. Despite being in negative game scripts, Dowdle still surpassed his receiving yards totals in each of the last two weeks. Look for Dak to check down to Dowdle against the Giants pass rush, and for Dallas to run the ball with the lead. Dowdle could be in store for a big night.

CeeDee Lamb is going to torch the Giants secondary. New York may be without Andru Phillips, their best young DB on the season thus far. Lamb should be matched up mostly against CB Deonte Banks, who has struggled against opposing WR1s. Dallas is in dire need of a big win in primetime after sustaining two ugly losses in a row. Look for Dak Prescott to feed his star receiver Lamb in the red zone. I'd consider a sprinkle on Lamb 2 TD's at big plus odds as well.

As good as Daniel Jones played against the Browns, it was more about the defense being able to halt Cleveland's secondary. Where the Giants enter this game banged up is where the Cowboys are best, and that's the passing game. Look for Dak Prescott to approach 350 yards through the air with a banged up Giants secondary unit.

The first half has been a disaster for the Cowboys the last two weeks, allowing eight total touchdowns while scoring just one of their own. They were able to rally down 28-6 in the fourth quarter last week but had scored just three offensive TDs over the first 11 quarters of the season. The Giants are talented up front and could give this Dallas O-line problems much like they did last week against Cleveland, and the Cowboys defense has been well below average at 6 yards per play. This is not a team playing well enough to be favored by six on the road against anybody.

It's pretty clear that the most talented running back on the Cowboys is Rico Dowdle and I project him to get at least 10 carries in this game. He should see some light boxes with the Giants trying to protect against the pass and he should find plenty of running room as the Giants are allowing well over 5 Yards Per Carry. This is a low number for the RB1 in a likely positive game script.

Devin Singletary isn't known for his explosiveness, but in the past two games he's ripped off longest rushes of 22 and 43 yards. Through three games he has forced 17 missed tackles, per PFF. Now he faces a Cowboys defense that gives up the highest rate of explosive runs. In fact, an eye-popping 29 percent of rush attempts against Dallas have gone for 10-plus yards. Look for Singletary, who is projected at 14-15 carries, to produce at least one run of 15-plus yards.

Cowboys are averaging 42 attempts pet game, most in the NFL, and were chucking it around 38 a game last year despite all those blowout wins. They can't run the ball and the Giants will put some pressure on their broken defense and I expect Dak to be throwing it all over the place here in a desperate spot. That's why he's making $60M a year and CeeDee Lamb tends to go off vs this defense. Forecast looks perfect to chuck it around. Dak should reach 40 here.

This battle of two 1-2 teams with the Cowboys having a short week on the road and the Giants thinking they found themselves with last week's win but the only thing that matters to me in this matchup is the Giants are 1-13 in their last 14 meetings. The Cowboys will instantly be rejuvenated with the Giants on the other side. Last year the two games combined were 89-17. The Giants beat Cleveland 21-15. That's the Cowboys only win too, their two losses were to the Ravens and Saints at home. That's a problem but the Giants are the solution. The Cowboys swagger will be back because it's a Giants. The Cowboys will play with confidence in the game because it's the Giants. Cowboys cover.

Guess we'll take this with some 5s and even a few 5.5s starting to pop for Thursday. The Cowboys can't stop the run whatsoever, but I'm not sure that will matter against New York. Giants cornerbacks Adoree’ Jackson and Dru Phillips have not been able to practice this week and are in major doubt. Dallas trashed the Giants in both matchups last year, and Dak Prescott has won 12 straight in the series.

My simulations make the Cowboys -6.5 road favorites on the short week, which aligns with the early lookahead line for this game. Dallas lost to a desperate and very talented Ravens team, but they remain significantly better than the Giants. Malik Nabers will present some challenges but will likely face a lot of double coverage. The Dallas pass rush will put pressure on Daniel Jones, and CeeDee Lamb should have a field day on the other side. Lay the points.

There is no reason to throw the ball on the Cowboys in the redzone when you can just run it in. The amount of rushing TDs they are hemorrhaging is staggering. Somehow, we are up to 11 in the last 4 games going back to the postseason. Yeah, Daniel Jones might poach one, but I expect the Giants to be able to move the ball on this group and attack them with power and Singletary has their only 2 rushing scores this season. Scouts tell me its the worst DT group in the NFL and you can gut them with inside gap or outside zone.

There are major reasons to doubt both of these defenses. Since 2020 this series is 5-3 to the over, averaging 50 points a game. With Daniel Jones at QB, these games are 6-2 to the over. The last 9 times Dak Prescott faced the Giants produced these totals: 71, 51, 55, 71, 64, 27, 48, 40, 66. Giants allowing 70% completions and face a team that can really only pass. Dallas is worst run D in NFL and allowed a staggering 11 rushing TDs in 4 games going back to the playoffs. Giants just allowed 425 yards to Commanders in Week 2; each team has only beat the Browns and don't be fooled by the numbers they put up vs that terrible offense.

The Ravens laid a blueprint last week for running option sprint plays with the QB away from Micah Parsons as just one way to gut Dallas's inept run D (last in success rate and EPA and yards allowed before contact). Jones has run 9 times or more in last three meetings with Dallas at home, with 79 in one game and 43 in another. In his last 6 NFC East games Jones has 32, 59, 43, 35, 26 and 71 yards rushing. It would be unreal for Brian Daboll not to lean into this vs this D. Lamar could have gone for 100 last week in Dallas and Deshaun Watson ran for 39 in Week 1 on just 5 carries.

It will be good for the Cowboys to get out on the road after losing two straight at home to good teams in New Orleans and Baltimore. The Giants, though improved, are not in that class. This is a matchup in which CeeDee Lamb, Jalen Tolbert and Jake Ferguson should thrive. I also expect the Cowboys to activate Dalvin Cook to spark their moribund ground game. Dallas has owned this series -- including outscoring New York 89-17 last season -- and I like the Cowboys to bounce back and win by a touchdown.