Sutton has clearly been Russell Wilson's top target when the Broncos get near the end zone. He has scored in five of the past six games and in three consecutive outings. Will the Bills missing two starters from their secondary, Sutton has a prime chance to pay off this sweet price by making it four games in a row with a TD.

Allen has rushed for a TD in six of the past seven games, while RBs James Cook and Latavius Murray have combined for two TDs during that span. The Bills QB also has seven or more carries in the past three games, after having four or fewer the previous five outings. In short, Allen is the primary scoring threat near the goal line and the plus-money price provides some value.

I am expecting Denver to try and slow this game down with a heavy dose of Javonte Williams from the beginning. With cold weather and some wind in the forecast it's hard to see this game turning into a shootout.

Buffalo has been a completely different (and dominant) team at home this season, and they are in a spot where they can't afford to take any games lightly. The Broncos are coming off a bye and enter this game as healthy as they've been in quite a while. I am expecting Denver's offense to be run heavy, which should shorten this game and keep things close. In the end, I like Buffalo to win at home, but I don't see them winning by more than a touchdown. Take the points.

The Broncos play slow. Dead slow. Slowest in the league. And they are routinely out Gaines and outplayed. The response has been to grind. Meanwhile Buffalo isn’t right. The last 5 include low scoring games, losses to bad teams, and escapes v even worse teams. Bills haven’t cracked 25 in forever. Under

With Stefon Diggs likely to be matched up with Denver All-Pro Patrick Surtain II for most of the night, Buffalo's "other" pass catchers should see plenty of single coverage and have plenty of opportunities to make plays. Shakir has been hot as of late, and with his explosiveness and Josh Allen's willingness to take chances, he could easily go over 34.5 yards with one reception in this matchup. Either way I am projecting 50+ yards for Shakir on MNF.

The Broncos are going to need a big game from Javonte Williams to have any shot at going into Buffalo and pulling off the upset. I also bet Williams to go over 13.5 carries in this one, so I am expecting a heavy workload for the former North Carolina Tar Heel. I expect him to go comfortably over this number, and possibly be close to it before the game enters the fourth quarter.

Both of these defenses are quite vulnerable, but that vulnerabily likely reveals itself in the running game for both teams. Denver hasn't exactly been in many shootouts lately and I think they try and keep the Bills offense off the field with their running game. I can see a similar gameplan early for the Bills which means longer drives, some of which may end in punts or field goals.

The Bills have thrown more than 65 percent of the time the past three games, which should mean heavy usage for edge rusher Jonathon Cooper. He has 11 pressures the past three games and has not missed a tackle in that span. Look for Cooper, a violent, explosive defender, to rack up at least four tackles plus assists.

Denver had two weeks to prepare for the Bills. The Broncos defense has been playing better and the Bills have been playing down to their opponents despite being undefeated at home. Since 2022, Buffalo is 1-5 ATS against teams that average over 100 rushing yards per game, the Broncos average 116.

Buffalo is going through an identity crisis right now, and it's showing in their offensive execution. Head coach Sean McDermott and OC Ken Dorsey both have mentioned tempo this week. That's great in theory, unless the Broncos elect to establish the ground game and play keep-away. Buffalo should find enough to win, but this is a big price tag for a team that can best be described as inconsistent on offense and depleted on defense, as it's down yet another two contributors in the defensive backfield.

Been hinting at this play since early in the week and Denver is very live here. With the spread ticking back up to 7.5 and this available at 3:1, I'm pouncing. I think the Broncos can push the Bills around some and their defense has gotten better and Russ is playing solid ball. Bills losses on defense keep mounting and I think Sean Payton plays bully ball and bleeds the clock and keeps it close. Broncos D will have to step up in redzone but I like their improved health in the secondary and things just seem off for the Bills. We've seen a lot of ugly prime time football and I find real value on the Broncos, who most wrote off a month ago.

This line is in the shadow of Javonte Williams' big game. Against Kansas City, the RB1 had 27 carries while Jaleel McLaughlin only had 4. But regardless, McLaughlin is an explosive back who averaged over 8 yards per carry in that game. William's line is set at 54.5 yards on an offense averaging 117 yards on the ground. McLaughlin should get 50% of the non-Javonte production, which should take him well over this 17.5 line. The Bills are also allowing 121 rushing yards at home.

Monday Night Football Unders are 10-1 in 2023, and all night games are going Under it seems -- it also seems like the Jets, Giants and Raiders are playing in most of them. Gag. Denver's defense is playing its best football of the season and the Broncos are healthy. Sean Payton has turned the offense into a run-heavy group. It won't be brutal tonight in Buffalo but certainly cold and a tad windy. Yeah, 48.5 would have been nice ...

Taking a shot on Marvin Mims who Denver HC Sean Payton spoke about at length over Denver's BYE week. Payton acknowledged that he needs to get Mims on the field more and regrets not having played the explosive rookie WR more. I believe it's realistic to expect Mims to see 55-65% route participation tonight. Considering this prop essentially comes down to whether or not Mims gets a single reception, I will roll the dice on the uber-talented rookie.

It's been an incredibly impressive turnaround for Williams who suffered a devastating multi ligament knee injury last season. Williams has looked better and better every week and has received a whopping 42 rushing attempts over the last two Denver games, while piling up 167 rushing yards. The Broncos are coming off a BYE week and Williams should be set to handle another substantial workload. The Bills defense has sustained significant injuries and as a result has cratered in recent weeks. Buffalo's run defense is 20th in EPA allowed per rush and 22nd in Defensive Run Grade. Look for Javonte to get plenty of work tonight.

The Broncos last won a MNF game in 2012 at San Diego. Is 7-points enough to balance that gap? The last three weeks of Broncos play has been impressive with Vance Joseph’s defense. They shut down the Chiefs 24-9 before the bye, beat the Packers, and lost a close one to the Chiefs at Kansas City. Just 28 points were scored by the Chiefs between the two games. The Bills are undefeated at home, but they haven’t covered in their last five games since the London trip. I took the points with the Broncos.

MNF has gone under 10 of the last 11 games with an average score of 20-17. I see this more as 23-21/23-20. Hoped it would hit 48.5 but will play here. Denver's D is better the last month and is fresh off a bye. Bills may want to speed it up but Sean Payton will slow it down when Broncos have the ball; DEN a top 5 TOP team during 3-2 run. If Bills still can't hit big plays - and I figure they don't - this becomes more of a close slog, and Bills have trouble keeping foot on gas for all 4 quarters lately, even at home (even vs TB and NYG). Payton can keep his D off the field by running.

There is a star contrast between Cook's rushing production in victories compared to losses. Cook is averaging 14.5 rushing attempts/77.6 rushing yards per game, and has eclipsed this line in 4/5 games the Bills have won. The Broncos are 30nd in EPA allowed per rush and 32 in Defensive Run Grade. As long as this game is competitive, look for Cook to handle 14-17 rushing attempts.

The Broncos secondary is getting healthier at corner and they have settled into some zone concepts while making gains defensively ... but remain very vulnerable to TEs and having the speed of Diggs and Davis on the outside opens up the intermediate stuff for Kincaid. That's the Bills' passing sweet-spot lately, anyway. Last 5 TEs vs. Denver: Kelce 6/9 - 58 yds; Musgrave 4/5 - 30, Kelce 8/9 - 124; Conklin 4/5 - 67; Kmet 7/9 - 85. This kid is nimble and can rumble after the catch and has the QB's full confidence now. Go-to spot in prime time. I am playing 70+ in alt markets.

Buffalo is in a must-win spot and the QB is as healthy as he's been in a while coming off extra rest. He's good for 7 carries and 40+ rushing yards since the Bills defense has stumbled due to injury and the margins have gotten smaller for Buffalo's offense. I expect the Broncos to play a lot of quarters coverage and lock some things down deep and Allen to make plays on his own outside the pocket. If you agree this game could be closer than the line indicates, then it probably means Allen has to keep running throughout, and he tends to lean into it more outside the redzone later in games. Denver is 25th in NFL allowing 8.2 yds/QB scramble.

The last time Josh Allen faced the Broncos late in the 2020 Covid season, he had fire in his eyes while recalling how Denver (just down the road from Wyoming, where Allen starred in college) bypassed him in the 2018 draft for...Bradley Chubb. That was all John Elway's doing, and as Elway is no longer involved in the Mile High decision-making, not sure if Allen will approach this week with the same zeal. Allen and the Bills have other things to worry about, namely a re-booted Denver defense has responded to some of Vance Joseph's tweaks and has flustered Patrick Mahomes twice in the past three games. Broncos under last three; and Bills under 6-3 this season. Play Broncos-Bills Under

Russell Wilson is a prideful dude and when playing in primetime he'll show it off...which is exactly why I want his rushing prop tonight. The Broncos will likely be playing from behind and love or hate Russ he'll give the effort under the national lights, meaning when the play breaks down he'll look to move chains however he can. Not to mention I don't see him kneeling late for victory so we won't lose rush yards there either. Russ has eclipsed this number in three of his last four games and we're sitting pretty for another one.

It’s no secret Buffalo is a bit “light in the seat” with their front 7. In other words you try to wear them down and push them around. Enter Javonte who seems to have the job. I’ll grab this now before it goes up.

Perine has no less than two receptions and 15 yards receiving in any game this season. I know Javonte Williams will continue to get more work in Denver's offense, but the Broncos aren't paying Perine $3 million this year to be invisible. Buffalo is also allowing the sixth most receptions to RBs and if Denver is behind as expected, this plays right into Perine's favor. I expect at least another 15 yard receiving game from the veteran on Monday night.

The Broncos have started playing better because Sean Payton is running the ball like crazy -- Russell Wilson hasn't topped 200 yards passing in four straight games. Williams appears finally healthy in his return from a torn ACL and had 27 carries last time out against the Chiefs. Buffalo is meh against the run.

As noted elsewhere on this page, I see volume here for the Broncos in the run game. Williams has become their lead back and Sean Payton will let him get a big of a lather and stick with him, knowing a long run might be just around the corner.

Despite their erratic ways, one thing the Bills have done consistently is put away vastly inferior teams. They have outscored the Raiders, Commanders and Bucs by a combined score of 99-31 in three blowout victories. Denver has won two straight and is coming off an impressive win over the Chiefs, but the Bills are in a favorable get-right spot.

If there were any lingering concerns about the health of Williams' knee, they were erased with his 30-touch performance against the Chiefs in Week 8. The Broncos are coming off a bye, so Williams should be well rested. For Denver to keep this game close, they are going to have to establish their running game early. I expect Williams to finish with close to 20 carries in this one, easily going over the 13.5 number.

We're starting to see a Broncos defense over the last month, really play with a ton of confidence. They are starting to make plays and get off the field. When you combine that with the offense who has found its balance, this game will be much closer than people believe. Bills offense, while exciting, still leaves far too many plays out on the field.

Buffalo has failed to cover in five straight, and a six-pack looms because its defense dotted with backups. DBs Micah Hyde and Christian Benford were ruled out Saturday, and three other starters are on injured reserve. QB Russell Wilson has been abysmal lately in prime time, as have the Broncos. They might not need a bushel of points to cover, with Denver's defense having held its last three opponents south of 20 points. This is Denver's first game in 15 days, which makes them healthier than the hosts.

Break out the mustard jackets for Dandy Don, because I think Sean Payton might feed WIlliams 30 times with him looking more fully recovered from his ACL tear. Ran 27 times in last game and now fresh off a bye and a big past of Denver's 3-2 run. Last 4 weeks Denver is top 4 in run % and 1st in yards before contact on the ground and Bills can get shoved around in the first two levels. In a TOP game, Williams is primed for action and is tearing off 10+ runs last 3 weeks. Averaging over 3 yards after contact/run last three weeks and making people miss again. Bills rank 24th in rushes over 10 yard allowed and 2nd in most over 20.

Denver will zone this thing up and try to take away long balls to Diggs and the Bills are a heavy intermediate passing game the last month or so, anyway. The rookie TE has become a go-to guy and this is a must-win game for Buffalo. Broncos pass D has been leaky and allow 79.4% completions to TEs, 30th in NFL. Kincaid second only to Diggs in Allen targets last 3 weeks, catching a ridiculous 23 of 26. Went 10/11 last week. Nice big target for Allen outside the pocket when he takes off. Bad match-up for Denver. I like the plus money return on this instead of the yardage total; some of these catches might end up being short air yd/attempt in the redzone.

Denver is very live here. Fully rested off by, with a physical identity now and run-heavy approach (4th highest rush % in NFL last 4 weeks) vs. a team 30th against the run. Sean Payton has Broncos believing and has Russ cookin' a little bit (101.7 rating) and has activated his legs more. DEN D reminds me of MIN a few weeks back - getting better but no one notices. Played a lot of Quarters coverage to shut down Mahomes twice; Josh Allen is 29th in NFL vs 1/4s (85.0 rating). Broncos will get heavy and can push around injured and fatigued Bills up front. Payton will bleed clock to keep it close. BUF D 26th in yd/play. BUF fail to cover 4 in row.

Denver is fully healthy as it comes off its bye. The Broncos won two straight before the break; their defense improved significantly as key players returned. The banged-up Bills defense suffered more injuries in last week's loss at Cincinnati. Look for Buffalo to eke out a win at home but for the Broncos to be very competitive.