Decided to make a late play with the line ticking down. It feels like the Cowboys are getting too much credit for beating the Giants (defensive TD needed) and being undervalued against the Commanders. The Bengals may lack Ws, but they twice came within a FG of beating the Ravens and went back and forth with a tough Steelers team. Cincinnati just has too many weapons: Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja’Mar Chase, Tee Higgins. Cooper Rush’s dink-and-dunk play will not allow CeeDee Lamb to go off as necessary to cover (1-5 ATS at home), and the Cowboys secondary struggles against creative QBs. Bengals are 5-1 ATS on the road, 4-2 ATS as favorites of 4+ points (four straight covers). I bought this at -4 (-115).

Cooper Rush has just one pick in his past five games as the Cowboys aren't really throwing the ball a ton downfield air-yards wise with him under center. The Bengals have just seven picks on the season. They can't stop the run much, either, so ideally Rush doesn't approach 25 attempts.

It's been tough sledding for Ceedee Lamb recently but. I like this spot for him as a potential bounce back for the star WR. Lamb hasnt touched the century mark in five consecutive games and a lot of that can be attributed to Cooper Rush playing QB for the Cowboys. Lamb is also dealing with a shoulder injury. We're getting a discount on his receiving line tonight in what is certainly a good matchup, with a high projected total, and game script should be in Lamb's favor. I like Lamb to get back on track tonight.

Chase Brown looks more and more comfortable very week as the Bengals feature back. If we look at the Bengals rushing attack as a whole on the season, it's middling at best, however since Week 8 they're a respectable 15th in EPA per rush. That coincided with Brown taking over as the Bengals lead back and Zack Moss heading to IR. This is arguably the best matchup for RBs against a Dallas defense that is a MASSIVE run funnel, in addition to ranking dead last in EPA allowed per rush.

Chase Brown is a big play waiting to happen and has been very serviceable since taking over as a feature back. If you look at the Bengals rushing metrics on the season, they'd suggest they've been largely ineffective, however most of that was during a split backfield with Zack Moss who was dreadfully inefficient. Since Week 8, the Bengals rank 15th in EPA per rush and that coincides with Brown taking over as the lead back. Now he faces a Cowboys defense that is dreadful versus the run and rank dead last in EPA allowed per rush and 26th in defensive success rate.

Cooper Rush has done what's been asked of him since taking over for an injured Dak Prescott. In his last five games here are the completion numbers: 21, 24, 32, 13, 13. Cincinnati no doubt qualifies as a bad defense ranking 28th in EPA/dropback, 29th in rush EPA allowed, and 30th in total EPA allowed. This tells me Dallas can pick their pathway and with Rico Dowdle flashing last week vs the Giants I expect a balanced attack. Given how the Cowboys are being bet it also suggests a tight game and neutral game script meaning Cooper won't be a high volume passer in this spot unless they're chasing all night. Under completions for me with QB2 in big D

Oddsmakers have too much faith in this Dallas D. The line is lower because statistically, Dallas is a good pass defense in terms of yards allowed at just 230 per game. But this is because teams haven't needed to pass against Dallas, they are too busy blowing them out. Both of Burrow’s short options (Chase Brown and Andrei Iosivas) are also explosive players who can bust a long YAC reception. Even if CIN wanted to take advantage of the Cowboys weak run defense, they don’t have Joe Mixon anymore and Chase Brown / Khalil Herbert are too small to bully anyone on the ground.

Great night to be a receiver. Poor defenses and no run game. Andrei Iosivas should see some open looks tonight with Dallas' defense focused on the two big guns. He has gone over this line his past three games, and should be a solid quick target for Joe Burrow who will be under pressure tonight from the Dallas pass rush. Oddsmakers are implying 2 receptions for the WR, and he averages 13 yards per reception, so I anticipate at least 26 yards.

If Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense continue to play the way they have been over the last four weeks, then Cincinnati could easily be leading by double digits at the half. I expect the Cowboys to come out and play hard early, but they simply don't have the firepower to get into a track meet with this Bengals team.

Brown has been an explosive play machine this season, with runs of 20+ yards in six games, and runs of 15+ yards in eight games thus far. Dallas is allowing 147.6 rushing yards per game this season, and is going to have its hands full trying to defend the likes of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. I expect Brown to cash this bet early on Monday night.

This prop reminds me a lot of a David Montgomery anytime touchdown prop. I’m not sure why it’s not played more often. I make him over 70% to make 2. So while this number is climbing it’s still good value.

Cincy is sort of a bully team. Since week one, they are 0-7 against teams currently in the playoffs and 4-0 against teams that would not be in the playoffs. And they’re not opposed to starting fast. I don’t think they’ll be losing at halftime and I like the price..

The Bengals are facing a Dallas defense that has struggled mightily in 2024, allowing 28.3 points per game. Over the last month, Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati offense have been rolling, averaging over 30 points per game in their last four games. I expect another explosive offensive performance from the Bengals on MNF.

Despite what the Bengals' record shows, Burrow has been outstanding in 2024. He leads the NFL in touchdown passes (30), and will likely take over the league lead in passing yards tonight. The 2019 Heisman Trophy winner is averaging 278.1 passing yards per game this season. Cincinnati's offense has been rolling over the last month and I expect that to continue on MNF.

FanDuel. Since becoming the workhorse, Brown has cleared this line in 8/L10, with his only two misses vs top 5 defenses (BAL and PHI). He now faces off against DAL who rank 29th in run defense DVOA (FTN), and have the third highest explosive run rate allowed.

The Cowboys have one of the best weapons in football, and I'm not talking about CeeDee Lamb. Aubrey is 20 of 21 from 50-plus yards in his two seasons with Dallas, and he has a 65-yarder on his ledger this year. He's attempted less than two FGs only once this season as Mike McCarthy has full confidence in his kicker. Only five of the 12 kickers to face Cincy have attempted less than two FGs, and four of those teams scored three-plus TDs. Both the Cowboys offense and Bengals defense are awful in the red zone, but even if Dallas wins that matchup I like Aubrey to hit this Over.

Pretty simple thought process here. The Bengals rank 31st and the Cowboys rank 30th in defensive scoring heading into this matchup. Joe Burrow has been lights out over the last month, and I expect him to guide Cincinnati to another 30+ points on MNF. The Cowboys should be able to move the ball and score against the Bengals' defense as well.

I unsuccessfully tried to fade Mike Gesicki last week, and he soared over his catches and receiving yards props for the fourth time in five games. He is averaging six targets over the past six games. Monday, Gesicki is facing a Cowboys' defense that's been very vulnerable to tight ends lately, giving up 54, 51 and 48 receiving yards to the position over the past three games. This season, Gesicki runs a route on 93.5 percent of his snaps, including 24 of 25 snaps last week. In fact, he's run 24 or more routes in five straight weeks.

There's expected to be a lot of offense in this game, and I believe the best way to attack it is with the Cowboys team total Over. The only two times Bengals opponents haven't scored 24 points since Week 1 came against inept Giants and Browns offenses in consecutive weeks. The Cowboys haven't been that bad with Cooper Rush, though recent point totals have been inflated due to DST touchdowns. That said, Rush also had three drives of 50-plus yards against Houston that ended in no points, so this looks like a unit with a 20-point baseline facing one of the league's worst defenses, which should help Dallas get to at least 24 even if the defense or special teams doesn't score.

Tee Higgins knows in the offseason he is going to be one of the top wide receivers looked at in free agency. Tonight is a chance to put his skills in front of a global prime time audience. Going back two seasons ago when Cincinnati traveled to Dallas, it was Higgins that led the Bengals in catches and yards. Wouldn’t be shocked if he does it again tonight, as I expect a similar prime time performance as he had against the Chargers a few weeks back. Take Higgins over.

The Cowboys defense allows 28.2 points per game which is 29th in the league and at home they allow 34 points per game and have gone on to 1-5 this season. The Bengals score 27.9 a game on offense and allow 28.3 on defense going over their last five. The Bengals have gone 9-3 to the over and the Cowboys have gone over the last three games with Cooper Rush getting comfortable each time winning the last two. All signs are pointing to this game going over the total in quite an entertaining game.

Joe Burrow is having an outstanding season but the team seems to have some trouble, especially on defense, and they can't get a win against a quality team. They've lost seven in a row to playoff-type teams and they handle business against the Raiders, Browns, Giants, and Panthers with ease covering. I think the Cowboys with Cooper Rush fit that mold of the four teams the Bengals have beaten easily. The over has also happened five straight times. Bengals to cover.

Bengals RB Chase Brown has proven to be a true dual-threat back. Brown has cleared this receiving yards total in four straight games, and may be heavily involved once again in this matchup. The Cowboys defense has been terrible, but they do get pressure on opposing QB’s. Dallas now has Micah Parsons back, and the Bengals will be without Tackle Orlando Brown. Joe Burrow is likely to be under duress, and should look to Brown in the pass game when the pressure comes. Brown has big play ability, and has broken off a 15+ yard reception in three straight games. I would consider laddering this up to 60+ receiving yards at +550!

Cowboys RB Rico Dowdle should be the beneficiary of Cooper Rush’s “dink and dunk” passing style. Rush gets the ball out of his hands quicker than any quarterback in the NFL (2.3 seconds on average). He also has a very low average depth of target, opting for check downs and his receivers running short routes. The Cowboys are dealing with offensive line injuries with Guard Zack Martin ruled out, and Tackle Tyler Guyton ‘questionable’ with a knee injury, so Rush may be under duress. Dowdle has gotten 3+ targets in 8/11 games this season, and I would not be surprised to see him get 5-7 targets in this matchup against a porous Bengals defense.

Germaine Pratt has cleared this line in seven of 12 games this season, including racking up 13 combined tackles last week without fellow LB Logan Wilson, who is now on IR. The Cowboys' offense with Cooper Rush has been much more LB-tackle friendly (19.5 allowed over the last 4 games). Rush’s lower aDOT (7.2 yards), and Dallas' increased reliance on the run game, should lead to more opportunities for Pratt.

There are a lot of targets to go around now that Brandin Cooks is back and Jake Ferguson is healthy, but KeVonate Turpin has earned the right to continue to get work. The Cowboys have made an effort to include the speedster in the offensive gameplan this year and while he's not on the field a lot, when he is on the field, the Cowboys design plays for him. Turpin has hit this line in 2 of his last 3 games and 6 of his last 8. In a neutral and/or negative game script, I'm expecting Turpin to get a few looks and that's probably all he will need to get this over.

Cowboys haters might disagree, but Dallas has played pretty well lately and isn't completely out of the NFC wild card race thanks to the win at Washington. With another game to go against the Commanders and Washington showing signs of wobbling, maybe Dallas isn't quite out of it yet. Keep in mind that two years ago, Cooper Rush at QB was able to beat a Bengals team off of their Super Bowl appearance in a 20-17 win at AT&T. Cincy has fared better on the road this season but has also effectively played itself out of the playoff picture, hampered greatly by an ineffective defense down from recent seasons. Note Dallas also snapped its Arlington bug-a-boo on Thanksgiving vs. the G-Men. Play Cowboys

Over his last two games, Cooper Rush has completed 45 of 68 passes (66.2 percent). He generally throws short passes and tries to avoid mistakes. Facing a lethal Cincinnati offense, I'm expecting Dallas to have to throw a lot. Many books have this prop at 23.5 completions but 22.5 is currently available at BetRivers and SugarHouse, among others. Cincy is allowing opponents to complete over 65 percent of their throws.

The Cowboys have won two straight behind Cooper Rush's mistake-free play, and I like them to at least be competitive against the high-powered Bengals. Cincy's defense has cratered, giving up 7.2 yards per play in its last three games. Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson will return from his concussion, and CeeDee Lamb is expected to play. While Zack Martin was placed on IR, replacement Brock Hoffman has filled in well. On extra rest and with their postseason hopes still live, look for the Cowboys to keep it close.

The Bengals defense is total failure against the pass. They cannot cover or adhere to the proper principles and leverages when in zone. Total trainwreck. Dallas is at home, can operate smoothly vs a tepid pass rush in what I expect to be a shootout game. Rush is averaging 265/G and is plenty settled in as starter now after Dak's injury. CIN has held an opponent under this once in the last 6 games. Cowboys run game has ticked up lately but not enough for this number to be this low. Rush will have to try to keep up with Joe Burrow.

Dude has 13 TDs already this season, Joe Burrow is going to feed him and the Cowboys defense is vulnerable. This is priced low considering what a TD machine Chase has been. He has 6 TDs in the last 3 games and at least 1 TD in 4 of the last 5 on the road.

They are making you pay a premium to play RBs vs a Dallas defense without run stuffers and with a terrible spine. I'm going to do it anyway. Brown is at 90+ scrimmage yards in 4 straight games, a lot of the offense is running through him and the Bengals have a bad OL facing two top pass rushers. They can gut Dallas with screens and dives. Brown was getting hard yards vs tough defenses in the AFC North. This is a reprieve. He could run for 100 but I like protecting in the passing game as well with scrimmage yards. Ex-Bengal Joe Mixon went for over 150 scrimmage vs DAL a few weeks back; that isn;t out of the question here.

I should have jumped this sooner. Better now than later. These teams are 17-7 to the over. CIN games average 56.3 points (1st) and DAL games average 48.9 (5th). DAL home games are averaging 50.5 this season; Cowboys 10-4 over at home since '23 and CIN 9-5 over on road. Bengals have played 5 straight games at 54+and CIN has scored 27+ in 7 of their last 10 games. Joe Burrow is over in 9 of his last 12 games vs the NFC; all 9 are over by 4+ points. Bengals defense is totally busted. Cowboys pass rush will be problem for CIN OL and create short fields. Cowboys allowing 34.5 PPG at home., most in the NFL. I can only play this one way.