Dobbins could never figure out why he didn't get targeted in Ravens offense; he has the same coordinator in LA but Justin Herbert embraces the horizontal pass and with Ravens without Roquan Smith - forced to use special teams at LB - and Kyle Hamilton forced to play deep safety, Dobbins can feast in screen game. He's catching 2.5 balls/game, which should put is over this. I bet he gets 5+ targets. Ravens have already allowed more short passes between the hashmarks than all of last season, and that was with Roquan. Checkdowns will bleed them out. Ravens are a terrible YAC defense even at full strength. Top run D is better tested in the screen game.

The Chargers have the better defense and the better special teams. Justin Herbert is a top 5 QB right now and the Ravens pass D is bottom 3 and no Roquan Smith means the middle of the field is even more open for business than ever. Chargers have elite OTs who can muddle a middling Ravens edge rush. Chargers know Ravens inside out, this is a widespread revenge game and Ravens running on fumes ahead of a very late bye. Herbert can throw for 325 here and win short, medium and deep. Jim Harbaugh isn't losing to his brother a third straight time. Ravens are an awful 4th quarter team and Chargers have top second half scoring margin. Their kicker can win it late.

Both teams are down a starting linebacker, and the Bolts are also missing starting CB Cam Hart. Jim Harbaugh has worked wonders with the Chargers' culture, but Lamar Jackson is 17-4 career after a loss and 19-5 in primetime. Joe Burrow and Cincinnati just hung 27 points on that LA defense once it finally played a good quarterback. Ravens starting center Tyler Linderbaum and nose tackle Travis Jones are active after being listed questionable.

A classic "gotta have it" moment for Lamar, and he will do whatever it takes to win. He has played a little banged up recently which explains his 4 yards vs DEN. The short week vs CINCY explains his 33 yards. His passing on obvious scrambling opportunities vs PIT can be explained by how freakishly hot he has been passing. With an extra day of rest, expect Lamar to resort back to his earlier season tendencies against a Chargers D struggling to stop quarterbacks.

The Ravens start fast, because their speed is often tough to replicate in practice. So the game is a bit shocking early for the opponent. I simply don’t expect LA to be ahead at half. A tie is a push.

Let’s examine when Andrews has been UNDER 2.5 receptions. They are games where 1) Jackson is WAY under his projected completions 2) other TE go crazy and/or 3) blow games and Andrews sits. I’ll play that we avoid the traps and this goes over.

The Chargers have faced the easiest schedule of opposing run games this season, yet they rank 31st in explosive run rate allowed. Linebacker Denzel Perryman is out, further hurting LA's run defense. Derrick Henry will get a sizable amount of carries, and I bet that at least one of them will go for 17-plus yards. He's cleared this number in nine of his last 10 games.

Been back and forth here. The Chargers have been immense with four straight covers that we’ve backed and an impressive toe-to-toe showing with the Bengals. The Ravens, meanwhile, are 1-3 SU & ATS on the road against the AFC. More importantly, Baltimore’s pass defense is dreadful, and Justin Tucker has become untrustworthy. Conversely, the Ravens’ run defense ranks second in the NFL combating the Chargers’ greatest strength, and it does have a strong pass rush that should get pressure on Justin Herbert. This tracks as a Lamar Jackson bounce-back spot similar to what happened in Denver a few weeks ago. LA uses zone and struggles against scrambling QBs, playing right into Jackson’s strengths. Make sure to get this at -2.5 or -3 (-105) at worst.

This just in: These two coaches are brothers. Now add in that there are several players who have played for both teams and several coaches who have coached both as well. The result? I expect some sparring early, resulting in a slower pace and lower scoring game than expected.

The Ravens are coming off a disappointing performance last week against the Steelers (who have historically given them trouble). I’m expecting a big bounce back from Lamar Jackson. Jackson has cleared this line in 7/11 games this season, and has done it with passing yards alone in 4 games. Despite scoring just 16 points last week and throwing an inefficient 16/33, Jackson still went for more than 250 pass + rush yards. Jackson is fantastic in regular season Primetime games. This zone-heavy Chargers defense has been very good, but it may not be the best-suited to deal with Jackson, who can beat them with his legs when coverage holds up. I’m seeing a shootout on Monday night, with Lamar Jackson stuffing the stat sheet.

Its disgusting but it's awesome. This is a bet that Derrick Henry catches one ball, and a better price than the -225 for over 0.5 a reception. It's a perfect buy low spot on his last two games, where the Ravens struggled offensively because they got predictable again. It's time to keep Henry on the field and surprise everyone (maybe even Henry) with a ball through the air.

The 7-4 Baltimore Ravens are coming off the Pittsburgh loss and taking their No. 1 offense to LA to play the Chargers. The 7-3 Chargers have won and covered the last four straight but all the teams they beat were two games under .500 or more. All seven teams they beat on the season were .500 or worse on a season. The Chargers idea under Jim Harbaugh is to play a slow game that doesn’t make any mistakes. The Charges have gone 3-7 to the under this year while the Ravens have gone 9-2 to the over. We've got the No. 2 scoring team that averages 30.4 points a game against the No. 1 scoring defense that allows 14.5 points per game. Ravens moneyline.

Even more than a play on Lamar Jackson, this is more of a play against the Chargers ability to stop quarterback rushes. Plus, we know Jackson loves primetime and will always give you a little extra in this spot.

This number is going to continue to climb all day and should be gone soon. The Chargers scared me with their collapse against Cincinnati (even though they held on to win) and Baltimore is a good bounce back spot.

My analysis here is quite simple: Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is 25-6 ATS when playing as a favorite of 3 or less, or as an underdog. Jackson is 19-5 SU in regular season night games. To this point, the Chargers defense has played the NFL’s easiest schedule of opposing offenses. The Bengals lit this defense up, and should have beat them last week. Ravens flock on Monday Night.

Sine 2021, in Lamar Jackson’s career following a loss after week two and beyond the Ravens are 8-0. That’s certainly factored into the spread along with last year’s 20-10 Sunday night prime time win over the Chargers. For years, the narrative was the Chargers were a coach away from getting to the next level with poor losses under Brandon Staley. Under Coach Harbaugh we are seeing that, and like many instances this year with the Steelers/Cardinals we are seeing a home team on a winning streak devalued ATS. Tail the Chargers.

The Chargers have been one of the worst defenses against quarterback scrambles, giving up 9.9 yards per scramble (30th). They play a light box at the second-highest rate and rank 29th in yards per carry allowed against outside runs overall, in addition to 30th in yards after contact. It sets up well for a big rushing game from Lamar Jackson. Kyler Murray burned LA for 64 rush yards on six attempts. With Jackson projected for 7.5 carries and his team coming off a loss, I like him to take things into his own hands and go Over this prop total.

The Chargers have been explosive with the passing game and very pedestrian with the ground game and that should equate to plenty of success for Justin Herbert through the air. I'm noticing Herbert's passing yards total trending upward, but I'm more comfortable with this TD prop as I don't see the Chargers having much success running the ball against a stout Ravens rush defense. I project the Chargers to have 3 touchdowns in this game and I think they may all come through the air thanks to a very forgiving Ravens secondary.

The Chargers have been getting their share of breaks with the schedule and other things, such as the usually-reliable Evan McPherson twice missing field goals within his range late last Sunday night for the Bengals, either of which would have given Cincy the lead and likely the game. While the Harbaugh brothers matchup generates interest, this game likely is decided by the Chargers defense keeping Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry in check. That's a far more daunting task than LA's stop unit has had to deal with yet this season. We'll wait to be completely sold on the Chargers until they win a game like this one. Play Ravens.

I project the Ravens as -3.9 road favorites in this matchup. While teams can only play the opponents in front of them, my model suggests the Chargers may be slightly overvalued based on the strength of their recent opponents. They struggled defensively against Cincinnati, and this matchup poses an even greater challenge with Baltimore's strong running game. I call Lamar Jackson "Mr. Monday Night" for a reason, and I expect him to deliver again in this crucial game with significant implications for AFC playoff seeding.

If it's Monday night, gotta go with the Ravens. They are 6-2 outright on the day largely because Lamar Jackson has tossed for a mind-boggling 20 TDs and zero interceptions. The Chargers, who have yielded the fewest points per game in the league, will surely challenge him. But as long as it's not Pittsburgh, which owns Jackson and Baltimore, the visitors should double L.A.'s average allowance and reach the high 20s. Let's go with John over Jim in the Harbaugh Bowl.

Everything the Chargers have done since their bye has led up to this game. Before the bye, the Chargers averaged 23.3 pass attempts per game to be exact. After the bye that number went up to 31.0 pass attempts per game. And this Ravens defense has been great against the run but not so great against the pass, yielding a fifth-worst 7.7 yards per attempt on the season. And that number explodes to 11.2 yards per attempt on throws of 9-plus Air Yards. Herbert's average depth of throw since the bye? 9.2 Air Yards. Herbert's been over 275 pass yards in four of his past five, and the Ravens have let up at least 269 pass yards to 8 of 11 quarterbacks this year.

This is a big number for Will Dissly who has only eclipsed this line in 2/10 games this season. In addition to being a lofty total, the Chargers pass catching group is as healthy as theyve been all season. LA wants to run the football and as long as its a neutral gamescript are likely to lean on their rushing attack. Even in the event that the Chargers are playing from behind, this is a tall order for Dissly playing in a low volume scheme. Hayden Hurst has also returned to the Chargers lineup to eat into his target share as well.

Herbert could get this with one rush on the first series of the game. His ankle issue is way behind him, he looks explosive and spry and Ravens top LOS scrimmage defenders Roquan Smith (probably out with a hamstring) and Kyle Hamilton (now playing much more two deep with Ravens in a FS crisis) won't be mugging him much. Backup ILB Malik Harrison can't run with him and Ravens not special vs scrambling QBs. Since being unleashed to drop back more and run mow, Herbert has at least 32 rushing yards in 3 straight home games.

The Ravens defense looked solid vs the pass last week, but this is a very different challenge vs a very different QB. Only Lamar Jackson is taking a higher % of deep shots (20+ air yards) than Herbert the last 6 weeks. He is making tight window throws and with the running game sputtering, he's counted on to finish drives with his arm. Ravens have allowed 22 passing TDs! Herbert is over this in 3 of the last 4 games. He can hold the ball for a long time and still make plays and Ravens pass rush has been largely tepid this season. His tackles can do the job here and help him push ball down the field.

Lamar always runs more in the final 6 weeks of the season than the first 6. The Ravens designed runs for Derrick Henry are dried up - Ravens are 31st in EPA on designed runs out of heavy stuff (12, 13, 21, 22) last 4 weeks. Chargers 27th in EPA defending QB scrambles. Lamar has at least 46 rushing yards in every road game this season and has 45 or more in 11 of 14 road games since the start of last season. He averages 57 rush yds/G on road since start of last season. He averages 79 rush yards/G on MNF. This offense needs his legs to help it get back on track.

The Ravens were held to 16 points last week, but let's remember they had three turnovers and two missed field goals in what is usually their house of horrors. Baltimore still averaged 6.1 yards per play and now faces a slightly overrated Chargers' defense that just gave up 27 to the Bengals. Baltimore remains the NFL's top offense and will be forced to score big in this projected shootout in perfect conditions. Look for the Ravens, in a bounceback spot, to put up at least 27.

Chargers top 5 pass game and throwing ball 20 downfield a ton and gone over 2 in row (61 points Sun). Ravens pass D still stinks; don't let Steelers game fool you. they are 5-1 to over on road with games avg NFL-high 56.3 points. LAC D is good but Lamar is great on MNF