Seattle is very healthy and certainly the more desperate team -- especially having lost four straight at home, which used to be unheard of for that franchise. Cold, rainy weather would certainly seem to NOT favor the indoor Cardinals. Kyler Murray is 2-6 career vs. Seattle.

As impressive as the Cardinals have been lately, I feel that Arizona has overachieved. The Seahawks are a different team with WR DK Metcalf on the field. Seattle’s defense has gotten a lot healthier over the last few weeks, and I’m not sure that they should be home underdogs after their valiant comeback win against the 49ers last week. This should be a classic NFC West thriller. I like Geno Smith to carve up this Cardinals secondary. If Seattle can contain Cardinals RB James Conner, they can win this game.

The Cardinals have most key advantages coming into this game, namely rest off the bye and a balanced offense that can beat you in multiple ways. (Exasperating that rest advantage is how tough the Seahawks had to play the 49ers last week.) Overlooked, though, is how well Arizona’s defense has stood up in key situations ranking ninth in the red zone (fourth over the last three games). Seattle has improved defensively to the point it was able to contain what has been an uneven San Francisco team, but the Cards should be operating much more fluidly particularly given the extra preparation time.

When I look at games that are not blowouts either way, JC has a median of 20 Carries and is under this number just once. Let’s play over.

The forgotten team when it comes to the NFC West discussions are the Seattle Seahawks. They had lost five of six games prior to their bye week, and escaped with a final second win last week over the San Francisco 49ers. They now have new life and a chance to take the division lead. Arizona is a team they have defeated five straight times, and have not lost to against in the Geno Smith era. Back the Seahawks.

Arizona Cardinals have won four games in a row and covered four games in a row and they're 3-1 against the spread on the road including covers at Buffalo wins at San Francisco and Miami. They've had a week off to think about Seattle. The Seahawks aren't so desperate for a win after winning at San Francisco. The reality is that the Seahawks started 3-0 and have gone 2-5 with their only two wins on the road. They've lost four in a row at home. The Cardinals are going to give them a little bit of James Conner up the middle and then get a taste of Marvin Harrison Jr down the sideline. Cardinals have controlled and blown out their last two opponents. Cardinals win.

Conner has 17-plus rush attempts in 6 of 10 games, and Arizona is 5-1 in the games he has 17-plus carries. Arizona is also one of seven offenses that are within a percentage point of a dead-even pass-run ratio, an example of just how much they value the run, and Conner has been their bellcow all season. Against the Seahawks, offenses are averaging 24.1 RB rushes per game, and they've consistently been north of 20 rushes. Four straight RBs have had at least 17 rush attempts against the Seahawks. Tack on Seattle playing at the fourth-highest pass rate in the league and the third-fastest pace, and it should mean the Cardinals own the time of possession, giving them more opportunities to run.

This looks like a great spot to back Geno Smith who gets a fantastic matchup against a Cardinals defense that combines a weak pass rush with a highly vulnerable coverage unit. The Cardinals rank in the bottom 10 in nearly every defensive passing metric, in addition to possessing an awful pass rush. This bodes well for Geno who will have his full compliment of weapons in a game with a 48 point total and should feature plenty of offense. Arizona's offense is also more than good enough to push Seattle into a pass heavy game script, something Seattle has not shied away from this season.

In the last three games combined, JSN has 23 catches on 31 targets for a combined 359 yards. Geno Smith has been looking his way early and often, especially against a two-high defense (24% target share), which Arizona employs about half the time. I expect 8+ targets, with 6+ catches for at least 60 yards from the rising star on Sunday.

We've been talking about this game on the new SportsLine Discord all week. I'm against the market consensus in backing the Seahawks, and I find it strange they beat the 49ers in San Francisco last week but this line is moving away from them. How good does the market think the Cardinals are to erase Seattle's home-field advantage completely? I see in the Seahawks an improving defense that can limit the Arizona run game and an offense that can pressure the Arizona defense through the air and on the ground en route to a win.

To beat Arizona, you have to stop the run. Seattle is in good position to do that after getting healthier the past few weeks and adding linebacker Ernest Jones. The Seahawks held Kyren Williams to 3.1 yards per carry and Christian McCaffrey to 4.2 yards per carry in their two most recent games. Right tackle Abe Lucas' return last week seemed to settle down Geno Smith, who also benefitted from having D.K. Metcalf back. Smith completed 25 of 32 throws and scrambled for 29 yards, including the winning TD in a 20-17 upset of San Fran. Seattle shouldn't be a home dog in this matchup.

The Seahawks have been getting healthier, getting back DK Metcalf and others on their offensive and defensive lines. Arizona has won four straight, with three of those four wins against teams who have had their own health/offensive concerns, Bears, Dolphins, and Jets, but they’re still only 2-2 SU on the road. Arizona’s defense is still allowing 387.5 total yards on the road and with the Seahawks getting back key players, and with this line flip flopping, this seems like a Seattle spot.

This has been an under series for quite some time. The Hawks and Cards are 5-1 to the under in their last 6 meeting, averaging just 39 points. They are 8-4 to the under in the last 12, averaging 45 points. The Cardinals are 7-5 under on the road since the start of last season, averaging 44 points. Seattle home games average 45 points this season. Kyler Murray is 23-12-1 tot he under on the road. Geno Smith really struggles at home and Seattle's offense has bogged down since September. Arizona will attack with volume on the ground and bleed clock vs a D that can't defend the run well.

This is a lot of value for something that has been baked into the cake when Geno plays at home. He's thrown a pick in 6 of his last 8 games games, and 3 straight. He has thrown 6 picks in those 3 games and tends to force things and get in his own head in these situations (helping explain why he is 3-10 ATS at home in Seattle). Cardinals are familiar with him. Cards don't have a pick since Week 6, so overdue for some positive regression there. He's thrown a pick in 2 of his last 3 games against Arizona.

Murray has rushed for 33 yards or more in 5 of his 6 games against Seattle. He averages 7 rushes for 47 yards vs them for his career. He's rushed for 60 or more yards against them 3 times. This is a playoff type game and Murray is fresh off a bye and the Seattle run defense has all kinds of issues and Brock Purdy just ran 5 times for 40 yards vs them last week. Seahawks keep cutting their inside linebackers, which could prove problematic vs QB draws and dives. Murray is over this in 4 of 5 career games off a bye, and he averages 6 carries for 49 yards in those games

The Arizona Cardinals went 0-6 against division rivals last season. We like betting on these teams in division matchups the following season. Seattle defeated the Cardinals as 3-point road favorites despite being out-gained 466-327 on January 7. Arizona lost by one possession against Mike Macdonald's defense last season. I like that they faced his scheme with much better personnel on the Ravens. Arizona has won three of their previous four games following its BYE week. The Cardinals have played a tougher schedule, ranking No. 2, while Seattle ranks No. 16. Additionally, they rank 12 spots higher in special teams and have a more favorable sack differential (+0.9 vs. -0.9). According to my betting model, Arizona should be favored by 2.5 points.

Arizona has faced a gauntlet of teams and stood strong against a bunch of division leaders or likely playoff clubs. Seattle’s best win is against .500 San Francisco (or beating Nix in his debut, maybe). Love the Cardinals off a bye while the Seahawks played a rivalry game. Seattle is just 4-8-1 ATS at home the last two years. Brock Purdy made things happen with his legs vs a Seahawks team constantly firing its linebackers, and Kyler Murray can further expose that. Cardinals are 6-6 ATS ATS vs Seattle in their last 12, so playing there hasn’t been a huge thing, and I like Kyler as a dog (even if it’s a slight spread). Cards are 7-3 ATS; Kyler 30-16-2 ATS as a dog.