I love this spot for McBride on Monday Night Football. The former Colorado State star is coming off his best game of the season, and he is clearly on the same page as Kyler Murray. I have McBride finishing with 60+ yards here.

There isn't a better venue for kickers than State Farm Stadium. The Chargers have a solid defense, especially in the red zone, so I see Ryland with a floor of two attempts here. My money is on him going over.

J.K. Dobbins got 25 of the 29 running-back carries for the Chargers in Week 6. While this likely won't follow the same game script, in which the Chargers led big early, I still like Dobbins to get at least 18 carries against this vulnerable Arizona run defense. With Gus Edwards on IR, with the receiving corps banged up, and with Dobbins getting an extra day of rest, look for the Chargers to lean on him heavily. Note that FanDuel is the only major book at 17.5 carries.

I'm selling Chargers' stock at the top of the market, mainly because of a stop unit that I just don't think has been tested yet. Looking at the offenses the Chargers have faced: Raiders, Panthers, Steelers, Chiefs (without Rashee Rice), and Denver. That's far from a murderer's row. Arizona will test this secondary from the start, leaning into Marvin Harrison Jr and Trey McBride to build a lead and forcing the Chargers out of their comfort zone. Arizona can load the box against a Chargers' passing attack down a major weapon in Quentin Johnston while forcing a banged-up Ladd McConkey to beat them on his own. It hasn't been profitable backing Kyler Murray in prime time but trends are made to be broken.

I would argue that the Chargers are now the least interesting NFL team to watch because they look just like Michigan did last season. That's boring offensive football, but it sure works for Jim Harbaugh, who probably would be thrilled if Justin Herbert only threw it 20 times tonight. That may well happen with Arizona allowing 153.0 YPG on the ground. Just got this hook and that may well matter in something like a 24-20 game.

Trey McBride is a sleeping giant in the Cardinals offense and is Kyler Murrays favorite target. This is a fantastic matchup against a Chargers defense that is very generous to opposing TEs. McBride is also a major positive regression in the touchdown department and I like his chances of getting in the endzone tonight as well.

The Chargers are seventh in red-zone defense, so I'm expecting a few Cardinals' drives to stall. It should put Chad Ryland in position to make at least two field goals -- something he's done in both games since replacing the injured Matt Prater. Ryland is 5 of 6 on field goals and I like him to make at least two Monday.

Arizona throws the ball more than you think when the game is close and not a rout either way. Plus both Arizona and the Chargers run a below average number place Based on that I project 20 total rushes for AZ. Under

This line is steaming up for good reason. Obviously Justin Herbert is way under his career average (270 yards) this season, but that has a lot to do with playing in a radically new system. We saw that narrative flip last weekend when he had his best game with 237 passing yards vs an elite Broncos defense. If we learned anything from last weekend, it's more plays, more pass attempts, and more yards. This Arizona defense is the perfect one to allow this continued momentum.

Given how the Cardinals opened the season, outside of a shocking win over a 49ers team that has been underperforming, Arizona has disappointed over the last month. The Chargers, meanwhile, have one of the league’s best defenses and fought three of the other top seven in as many weeks. The Cards offer a reprieve ranking 28th in yards and 29th in points; Los Angles has dominated similar defensively substandard teams by double digits, though of course Arizona offers a more potent offense than Carolina or Las Vegas. Justin Herbert has done well protecting the ball, and J.K. Dobbins has been excellent coming back from injury. The Chargers should control the clock, limit Kyler Murray and continue the trend of victorious road favorites.

Defense would never be the way Arizona wins this game. So regardless of this game outcome, our model believes the Chargers can get over this number. Arizona is allowing 27.2 pts per game which is worse than last year’s 26.8. They have a bad run defense (allow 153 yards per game on 4.7 ypc) AND a bad pass defense allowing 8.1 yards per attempt. The model makes the number 25.5.

Herbert is 6-1 ATS on the road in primetime in his career. He is 4-0 SU when playing as the favorite on Monday Night Football, whereas Cardinals QB Kyler Murray has a record of 3-7 SU in primetime. This looks to be a winnable game for the Chargers, who are playing a weak Arizona defense that is ridden with injuries. Head coach Jim Harbaugh's ground-heavy attack should help the Chargers control possession, and dictate the pace of this game. The Cardinals often get their sneaky wins by beating teams in shootouts, but that may be tough to accomplish against the Chargers style of football.

This one isn't rocket science. Dobbins has been the focal point of this Chargers offense. He has scored in 3/5 games thus far, and has had 17+ touches in 4/5 games. I expect the Chargers rush-heavy attack to succeed against Arizona, who rank 7th worst in defensive DVOA. The Cardinals' defensive linemen and linebackers have sustained a ton of injuries early in the season. Dobbins should be able to put his head down at the goal line and punch one in for us.

Wilson has cleared this total in 4/6 weeks, and has become a consistent target for Cardinals QB Kyler Murray. Wilson's receiving yards total is set low, perhaps due to the return of WR Marvin Harrison Jr, but I think too low. The Chargers secondary is banged up, and Murray can extend plays to find anyone in his cast of receivers. Wilson has 4+ targets in 5/6 games this season, and is a reliable option in the underneath and intermediary routes.

The Chargers have the No. 6 ranked defense in the NFL and are the No. 1 scoring defense, allowing only 13.2 points per game. This has helped four of their games stay under and only one get over; that's the challenge that the Cardinals have tonight. It's Jim Harbaugh's style: don't make mistakes, play conservatively, and play the game slowly. Keep the game under and keep the Chargers from making mistakes. They have the 29th-ranked offense with Justin Herbert and that's by design. But it's Monday night in Arizona and Kyler Murray is going to put points on the board and make the Chargers have to catch up and play some offense. Arizona has no defense and allows 27 points per game. This gets over.

One of the biggest issues with the Arizona Cardinals failure on offense has been their wide receivers. Three of their last four games the offense has scored fourteen points or fewer. Greg Dortch is a veteran player that has accepted any role throughout his tenure with Arizona, where at times he was the featured wideout. Look for Murray to lean on the veteran a bit more tonight. Play his over receiving yards.

The dynamics of the entire Bolts-Broncos game last week shifted on the first play when Pat Surtain II suffered his concussion on the Denver side. Without Surtain, the Broncos couldn't effectively cut off half of the field (ask the Bucs with Mike Evans, or the Jets with Garrett Wilson, earlier this season). Without Surtain, Justin Herbert suddenly had the width of the field at his disposal and took advantage as Vance Joseph made adjustments (which began to resonate in the second half) on the Broncos side, but the Chargers were able to hang on. The Arizona defense is not as good as Denver's but neither is the Chargers offense as good as it looked in the first half vs. the Broncos. Play Cards

Vibes are relatively high for the Chargers right now, but their level of competition has been poor this season. Contrast that to what the Cardinals have had to deal with, particularly on defense, and the picture becomes relatively clear that the Cardinals aren't as bad as some may think and the Chargers may be a bit overrated. The Cardinals are 2-4 on the year and have faced the Bills, Rams, Lions, Commanders, 49ers and Packers. Playing the Chargers at home is definitely a step down in competition, particularly with respect to the offense.

When he's had both his starting tackles healthy, and when not facing elite run defenses, J.K. Dobbins has cleared this prop total with ease. That will be the case Monday night as Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater are good to go. Arizona gives up 153 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per attempt. The Cards remain without first-round defensive end Darius Robinson, and two other starters, defensive tackle Roy Lopez and middle linebacker Kyzir White, are questionable. Rotational linebacker Owen Pappoe is also out. Dobbins has very little competition for carries (Gus Edwards is on IR) and should get plenty of volume in a positive matchup.

The Cardinals are two-faced, meaning they look great one day and terrible the next. It all depends on QB Kyler Murray, who has been the picture of inconsistency. There's some goodness in Arizona, but only when Murray is on his game. I think he will be against the Chargers. I like the Cardinals to cover.

We're already on the full-game spread, but I may like this derivative even more. The Cardinals have been behind at halftime in four straight games, and while it looks like Marvin Harrison Jr. may be available for this game after practicing Thursday, the Cardinals will still be up against the best scoring defense in the league. On the other side, the Chargers have led at halftime in four straight, and their offense had no trouble moving the ball against a good Denver defense last week. Put that unit up against a Cardinals defense that has allowed 150+ rushing yards in four straight and that ranks 30th in net yards per pass attempt and I think a Chargers halftime lead is likely.

The Chargers designated TD poacher, Gus Edwards, is injured. They don't want QB Justin Herbert closing drives on the ground. They have an OL that can bully the Cardinals around. And it's clear Jim Harbaugh loves this back ad fed him 25 times last week vs an elite Broncos run D. The assignment is easier here. Harbaugh is risk-averse and will prefer running it in redzone. Cards allowed 5 rushing TDs in last 4 games. AZ has allowed 6 rushing TD from the 5 or closer, tied for most in the NFL. I don't see someone poaching it from Dobbins, who can also win in the redzone screen game.

Dobbins is 3rd in the NFL in number of rushes 12+ yards (11) despite playing in just 5 games with an early bye. And facing some stout run defenses, unlike what he will see Mon night. Dobbins has an explosive run on 13.6% of his carries, putting him in the top 5 for non-QBs. He has a rush of 20 yards or more in 3 of his 5 games. Has breakaway speed even after his knee surgeries. Expect him to be a big part of the ground-based game plan here.

Jim Harbaugh will love running the ball on the hapless Cardinals DL. His OL can push them around and Dobbins will break a few long ones. He got 25 carries last week off a bye and he won't need nearly that many to get us home here. When he gets 10+ carries he averages 84 yards/G. Last 4 weeks Cards have allowed 187, 216, 153, 179 on the ground with 5 TDs. Chargers a premier TOP team will grind them down. I am playing him 100+ in alt markets.

The Chargers start games with purpose and don't fall behind and will be able to work the ball on the ground and milk the clock vs a soft defense. Chargers are +45 PD in first half thru 5 games, second best rate in NFL. Cardinals have trailed at the half by 10+ points in 4 straight and allowed at least 17 first-half points in 4 straight. Cards -19 first-half PD in 23rd in the NFL. Being home won't help them much. Chargers have far better coach and defense and QB. Jim Harbaugh has them ready to go from the opening kick.

Jim Harbaugh is 23-11-1 ATS on road and in SF his 2.48 road cover margin was 3rd best in the league (only NE and SEA were better). Chargers are top 7 team in TOP and AZ’s defense is already worn down from all the time spent on field. AZ allowing 5.1/carry in last 4 games, giving up 735 yards and 5 TDs. Cardinals allowing 32.5 PPG to non-NFC West teams this season. Kyler Murray is a guy you want to back as a big road dog, not in closer home spreads. He’s 15-22 ATS at home, 3-6 ATS in last 9 at home vs AFC and 1-5 ATS in last 6 prime time games. Chargers D is legit and they are too physical.

Both teams sustained several key injuries on Sunday, but the Chargers jumped out to a 23-0 lead in Denver while the Cardinals fell behind 24-0 in Green Bay. Even accounting for the difficulty of their opponents, the Chargers appear much further ahead of a Cardinals team that has been bad on defense and inconsistent on offense. With Justin Herbert playing well, I have confidence the Chargers will score plenty in this game, and I don't know if the Cardinals can keep up against a good defense even if Marvin Harrison Jr. gets cleared from concussion protocol. This is going to get to 3 in a hurry, and even there I would look to the Chargers.

The Chargers led 23-0 at Denver entering the fourth quarter; they had held the Broncos to 83 total yards. I like LA, which came out of its bye energized, to stay hot against a Cardinals team that lost a slew of key players in a 34-13 loss at Green Bay. Wideout Marvin Harrison Jr., defensive lineman Bilal Nichols, cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting, left guard Evan Brown and linebacker Kyzir White all were unable to finish the game. Justin Herbert aired it out 34 times at Denver as the Chargers proved they're more than just a running team. He has thrown six TDs and one INT this season. Lay the points before this hits 3.