Waited all day for Sunday night and +3 did not arrive with the Cowboys, so we’re holding our noses and playing Dallas anyway getting two points in the road in what should be a low-scoring game decided by a single possession late. The Cowboys missing Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence is immensely concerning, but the Steelers have struggled to protect Justin Fields against far less talented defenses this season, and the running game has been good but not great. Dak Prescott is by far the most important player in this game, and even if Dallas is down late in the fourth quarter, he’s who I trust to get within the number or win outright. Look for Jalen Tolbert to surprise in place of Brandin Cooks.

This pass rush will make you scramble. With a declining offensive line, Dak Prescott will have to run to protect himself. Even though he does not run like he did at the start of his career, his over 7.5 percentage is still solid 60% since last season, 23-13, 64% since ‘22 (65.6% for his career). The Sportsline Model makes the number 10.

Looks like Justin Fields is the third down RB. Jaylen Warren and Cordarelle Patterson are both out. The line is based on his 9.5 averaged since 2023 (last 17 games) but this is a situation where he will have to run more than average and it’s plus money.

Action is only trending up for George Pickens. Each week we see more: 2 for 29 in week 2, to 5 for 57 in week 3 and 7 for 113 vs IND week 4. The Sportsline Model has him projected for 72 yards. Injuries at running back should give Pickens some more opportunities for jet sweeps tonight.

Action is only trending up for George Pickens. Each week we see more: 2 for 29 in week 2, to 5 for 57 in week 3 and 7 for 113 vs IND week 4. The Sportsline Model has him projected for 72 yards. Injuries at running back should give Pickens some more action tonight overall. Look to take his rush + receiving yards if available, that would be my favorite play.

The Steelers are giving up 4.5 catches and 31 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs. That should benefit Rico Dowdle, who has been targeted 12 times this season. Look for Dowdle to clear this number for the fourth straight game.

The Cowboys DL is a major issue for them and they cant stop the run and lack two-gappers. They also will probably have to blitz to generate any pass rush, and Fields can take off and run if they do. Steelers beat up along the OL and at RB, and Fields started leaning more into keepers last week. Ravens gutted Dallas in the option game two weeks ago and Steelers can follow suit. I see him running 8 times or more and going over 50 yards on the ground in this game.

This job now seems to belong to Rico as Zeke has played less than 20% of the snaps each of the last two weeks. And at the last three games, Dallas has trailed early to New Orleans (45 passes called), trailed early to Baltimore (55 passes called) and only ran 50 total plays against the Giants. Despite those terrible game scripts Dowdle has been close to or over this number. Over

The Cowboys are playing in a bizarro world where they can't win at home and they can't lose on the road, at least the last six games that's the case. The last three games on the road the Cowboys have won and they've lost their last three at home. I think that'll be the case again here this week with the stronger fourth-ranked Pittsburgh defense which is also No. 3 against the run. This feels like a game that Dak Prescott makes the key plays that win the game. He's the better QB. Prescott had perhaps his best game of the season last week getting 80%, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. Cowboys won the last time in Pittsburgh. Cowboys win.

The Steelers' offense is not exactly a reincarnation of Terry Bradshaw, Franco Harris, Lynn Swann et. al. Still, remove the two best defenders (Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence) from a unit already struggling versus a decent ground offense, and Pittsburgh should climb into the mid-20s on the scoreboard. With WR Brandin Cooks sidelined, Pittsburgh's defense can focus on stopping CeeDee Lamb. A surprise team through the season's first month at 3-1 should not be a surprise winner here.

Tolbert has gone over this number in two of four games and that was with Brandin Cooks in the lineup. He has played in over 70% of the offensive snaps and I think that number hits 90% with Cooks out. Steelers have allowed seven receivers to gain at least 44 yards this season.

Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson has been targeted 18 times the past two weeks, catching 13 passes, and has become the clear No. 2 target behind CeeDee Lamb. Brandin Cooks is on IR. The Steelers allow just 3.7 yards per carry, so I'm expecting a lot of throwing from Dak Prescott. Look for Ferguson to haul in at least five passes.

This is an ideal matchup for linebacker Eric Kendricks. He never leaves the field, and the Steelers are committed to a run-based offense led by Justin Fields. Currently, Pittsburgh is rushing the ball 54 percent of the time. Kendricks has surpassed this prop number in three of four games and is coming off a 13-tackle performance.

It's understood that Dallas is missing its heavy hitters on the defensive side. Even so, the Cowboys are 2-0 on the road this season and the steam on the Steelers feels a bit overboard considering its own backfield injuries, limited offensive ceiling and penchant for one-score games.

Analysis to come.

Right now this is a bad matchup for the Dallas Cowboys based on where they are banged up defensively coming into this ball game. Yes, the Steelers are dealing with some injuries up front, so it could level itself out. But, there is a bit more trust in the Steelers operation than Dallas right now for me to trust them on the road.

The Cowboys have all kinds of issues keeping opposing ball carriers out of the endzone, allowing 11 rushing TDs already. Fields is closing out redzone drives with his legs and giving defenses fits. Steelers have beat up running backs and Fields playing with confidence and facing a team without run-stuffing DL. No reason not to keep it himself. Fields has 3 rushing TDs in the last 2 games and they are just starting to really tap into what he has to offer.

The Steelers offensive line is way too banged up to have a total this high. Sure Dallas is banged up on defense, but the Steelers scoring 24 seems a bit much for me.

The Cowboys are dealing with key injuries on both sides of the ball, and I think both point the same direction here. On offense, no Brandin Cooks will make it even hard to score on a top defense that hadn't surrendered more than 10 points before a weird Week 4 game where they had to face two very different QBs. On defense, the injury issues up front should keep Pittsburgh committed to running the ball and chewing up clock, which will limit possessions in this game. This certainly has the feel of 17-16 or 20-17, so I'm surprised to see the total moving up, but I feel good enough to grab it at 44 or higher.

May as well pay the extra 12 cents for the moneyline rather than play -1.5 and lose in a one-point game. Happy to see Justin Fields playing well in Pittsburgh. I always figured it was mostly the lousy QB coaching he got in Chicago, which has only been an issue with the Bears since the 1970s or so. But this is more a fade of the Cowboys down their two top pass-rushers in Micah Parsons (not ruled out yet but can't imagine he plays), maybe the biggest disruptor in the league, and DeMarcus Lawrence. No. 2 WR Brandin Cooks is also out.

I have identified eight essential stats when predicting NFL game outcomes. These stats include net yards per play, third-down offense, third-down defense, red zone offense, red zone defense, opponent passer rating, team penalties, and run defense. The Cowboys have a composite ranking of 160, while the Steelers are at 109. The team with the lower number is the one you should consider betting on. The Cowboys are dealing with a lot of injuries. They have very little depth this season. Kicker Brandon Aubrey may perform poorly in conditions that are less than ideal. There is a 60% chance of showers. Play the home team.

Both teams will be without an elite player in the trenches with Micah Parsons and James Daniels sidelined, but it's possible Pittsburgh will get back Isaac Seumalo for this game. I have no idea what the Cowboys will do to overcome the loss of their top two edge rushers on a defense that has been pretty mediocre outside of those players. The Steelers should be able to control the game with their rush offense, while the defense can put pressure on Dallas' underperforming tackles to disrupt a Cowboys offense that is wholly reliant on Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb. It's hard laying points here knowing Pittsburgh plays nothing but low scoring games, but as long as the spread stays below 3, I think it's fine.

The Steelers rolled up 404 yards in their 27-24 loss at Indy, but they couldn't overcome two turnovers, a botched snap and six penalties. One of the miscues came when George Pickens fumbled at the Colts' 3-yard line. Now Pittsburgh returns home to face a depleted Dallas defense missing Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence. Look for Justin Fields (6 TDs, 1 turnover this season) to continue his strong play, cement his starting role and lead the Steelers to a 4-1 start. Based on late-week injury reports, this line could close at 3.

Steelers gave one away Sun with weird fumbles and bad calls. We keep riding with Mike Tomlin; should have run Justin Fields more vs Colts but expect a heavy dose here after Lamar Jackson ran wild on Dallas. Dallas is 9-10 ATS on the road since start of ’22. Cowboys lack of any DTs who can fill gaps and their horrible run D is made worse with Demarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons out. Dallas cant run the ball and Dak will be throwing far too much against an angry D. Steelers are the far more prepared and sound team. Tomlin is 7-4-1 ATS in his last 12 vs NFC teams at home. He’s covered three of his last four at home in prime time.