Injuries are mounting for both sides, and while both teams have been playing great defense, this is a game I see hitting 44+ points. Both sides have offensive players who are home run threats who can go the distance any time they touch the ball. A final score in the 24-20 range hits this over, which is more than reachable for these teams.

Interesting line fluctuation here largely given injuries to Tampa Bay. Both teams have seen success and disappointment early this season, but last week’s much-ballyhooed Falcons win over the Saints somewhat ignores the fluky nature of that score. The Falcons are already 0-3 ATS at home this season, while the Bucs are 9-1 ATS on the road dating back to 2023, including 8-1 ATS as road underdogs. Baker Mayfield has not been great in primetime, yet the Buccaneers found major motivation last week in a thorough win over the Eagles after that embarrassing loss to the Broncos. Look for Todd Bowles to get after that reduced Atlanta front and Tampa Bay to pull away late in the second half.

Like I said with my Koo pick, I expect the defenses to shine in this TNF matchup, which should offer both kickers a chance to impact the game. McLaughlin hasn't missed this season, and I don't expect him to on TNF -- especially with this game being played indoors.

Both teams are strong on defense and this matchup could come down to kickers. Koo is one of the best in the business.

The Bucs will be without All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr., and the Tampa Bay defense has had some susceptibility against the pass this season. With Vita Vea back to clog things up in the middle, I expect the Falcons to lean on their passing attack more than they would in other weeks. I expect Cousins to push and possibly exceed 250 passing yards on TNF.

Seems like the market doesn’t know what to do with him. He’s had two monster games and the ANC’s are without WR 3&4

Irving has only hit 10 carries in a single game once this season, but it's quickly getting to the point where the Bucs would be foolish not to get the rookie out of Oregon 15+ touches per game going forward. Assuming Tampa doesn't fall behind early, I'm confident Irving will see at least 10 carries on TNF.

Baker Mayfield has had a terrific season and ranks top 3 in yards, completion %, and passing TDs. New OC Liam Coen has overhauled Tampa's offense and Baker is focusing more on short passing. As a result, the Bucs rank first in Pass Rate Over Expected and subsequently sport the lowest ADoT of any offense in the league. The Bucs have yet to find a consistent ground game and they rely on a lot high percentage throws near the LOS. Both teams have had issues sustaining drives so I expect plenty of play volume tonight for Tampa.

If Bijan Robinson is healthy this is a dream matchup for the young RB. He will face a Bucs defense that ranks dead last in EPA allowed per rush. Tampa also struggles against zone blocking and has been much more successful versus gap rushing. This bodes well for Bijan and the Falcons who run as much zone runs as any offense in the league. I like Bijans chances of having a big night on then ground.

The explosive RB clipped this total in each of the first two games of the season. He was thwarted by a tough KC defense intent on limiting him and, last week against the Saints, he was reportedly limited by an injury that led to gritty backfield mate Tyler Allgeier surpassing him in touches. Look for Atlanta to be intentional about feeding Robinson the ball, and for his production to clip this combo number.

The Falcons have the second-slowest pace of play in the NFL, while the Bucs are also in the lower third. Even so, these teams combined for 54 in Atlanta last season and a Falcons offense that failed to score a TD last week against the Saints has a chance to get right against a Tampa defense missing several key parts. The Bucs put up 445 yards of total offense and 33 points in their rout of the Eagles last week. These clubs should clip this modest total.

Atlanta will be without their top linebacker, Troy Anderson. Since 2018, the Buccaneers are 4-1 to the over when playing in Atlanta. However, this divisional game should be more of a defensive matchup while also controlling the time of possession. The Falcons are only averaging 18.8 points per game this season and Kirk Cousins still trying to figure out the identity of this offense. Tampa Bay has a lot of injuries on defense but, with their defensive minded head coach, they’re still holding teams to less than 20 points per game.

The Bucs are expected to make a change at running back in this game, with Bucky Irving seeing a higher line on his props than Rachaad White. The one I like attacking most is longest rush, as he has three carries of at least 14 yards against three different teams (including elite Broncos defense) and now will get increased opportunities to hit another. The Falcons are without linebacker Troy Anderson, who had 17 total tackles last week, and that should make things easier to get away for a long run.

Baker has eclipsed this in every game but one….and that includes him coming out of a blowout game where the backup kneeled. Take the over

Both teams were involved in sort of fake finals last week, with the Bucs playing an Eagles team with no WRs and the Falcons scoring 26 without an offensive TD. That Falcons stat leaves them with just five offensive TDs in four weeks. Long scoring plays were probably already a no-go; the longest TD the Bucs have allowed this year has been seven yards, and they've surrendered just one passing TD. The final straw for me to play against the market move is that the last 13 NFC South primetime games have all gone Under as teams typically with close ratings throw jabs instead of haymakers to try and avoid a big early mistake.

Recent developments suggest this has the feel of a game that could feature plenty of points, such as the second meeting last season that ended up 29-25 in favor of the Bucs. It figured that Atlanta's strike force might need a few weeks to get up to speed with new QB Kirk Cousins sitting out August and working some of the kinks out in September, which featured a tough opener vs. the Steelers. Now Cousins seems comfy and led a last-second drive for the winning field goal (58 yards!) last Sunday to pip the Saints. Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield looked as good as he ever has last week for the Bucs, passing for 347 yards and a pair of TDs vs. the Eagles. Play Bucs-Falcons "Over"

Bucs tight end Cade Otton's target share has gone way up the past two games, and he has breezed past this number in each. I expect another busy night with Tampa Bay's No. 3 and 4 wideouts sidelined due to injury and Atlanta surely focusing a lot of its attention on Falcons killer Mike Evans. Both our model and AI project Otton with at least 34 yards.

Rachaad White is still the starter in the running back room. He is certainly nearing a 50/50 split with Bucky Irving, but we think there is still plenty of opportunity for both to eat. White averaged 16 carries last season and while he has only averaged 10.3 this season, we don’t see that dipping any lower because Irving is too small to be a workhorse. The Sportsline model makes the number 10.6.

At some point we must admit this is a good football team. Since 2023, Baker Mayfield is 14-9 to this over averaging 1.8 passing TDs. The Sportsline Model makes the number 1.6, so at plus money this is a good value play. The Falcons have only recorded two sacks on the season so far, look for Mayfield to have plenty of time in the pocket.

Let’s take the under here. This comes down to FG v TD so I’ll stay under 44.

My ratings have the Falcons 2.5 points better than the Buccaneers on the neutral field and we can give the Falcons at least 1.5 for home field so the spread to me should be -4 for the Falcons. Anything less than the field goal is good value to me with the Falcons. Tampa Bay has beat Philadelphia and Detroit but lost badly at home to Denver. Atlanta has played four tough games in a row to start the season winning only two, beating the Eagles and the Saints was impressive. Kirk Cousins can improve on his four touchdowns and four interceptions. The Falcons have played below their standards and the Bucs have played above their standards. The Bucs are still an average team. Falcons win.

A team's injury report can be misleading, but some numbers should not be ignored. The Bucs on Tuesday listed 15 players. Two WRs are certain scratches, along with four other major contributors, notably All-Pro S Antoine Winfield Jr. The Falcons identified just four players as ailing. Third-down and red zone issues have conspired to keep Atlanta from scoring much, but a No. 3 ranking in net yards per play suggests that the points output should improve. Tampa Bay would be the pick on a Sunday with fewer health headaches. Not so on a Thursday with a banged-up roster.

Back to the well on Primetime Unders. Atlanta's offense is still struggling to get going. Despite bringing in gunslinging QB Kirk Cousins, this team's offensive identity may turn into a run-heavy ground and pound attack. Head coach Raheem Morris is a defensive guru. He has a top-tier secondary that can limit the opposing team's pass game, while the Falcons continue to search for theirs. Cousins still looks like a guy returning from an Achilles injury. Bucs head coach Todd Bowles is known for bringing heavy blitz pressure, which could make things difficult for a fairly stationary QB like Cousins that sits in the pocket. Get Under 44 now that the total has climbed.

Bucs outside linebacker YaYa Diaby is a freakish athlete who had a terrific rookie season (team-high 7.5 sacks). This year he finally got his first sack in Week 4. Per Diaby, Vita Vea's return made all the difference. But if you look at Diaby's snaps this season, he's actually been causing a lot of disruption. He owns a 38 percent pass rush win rate and a 14 percent pressure rate. He ranks sixth among edge rushers with 15 pressures. Kirk Cousins is getting sacked 1.5 times per game so far. I'm betting the Bucs will get to Cousins a couple times, and that Diaby will earn at least half a sack.

The Falcons beat the Saints without scoring an offensive touchdown. The Kirk Cousins-led attack has yet to fully click. Atlanta is 4 for 10 in the red zone and ranks 21st in EPA per play. Baker Mayfield is playing at a high level (106.9 rating), with rookie RB Bucky Irving providing a spark (5.8 ypc). Now they face a Falcons defense that could be without leading tackler Troy Andersen, who suffered a knee injury on special teams. He has 44 tackles and his absence would be significant with fellow linebacker Nate Landman already on IR. The Bucs have won outright on four of their past five visits to Atlanta.

Prime time unders are 14-10. Kirk Cousins is under in 9 of his last 10 starts. Cousins is 8-3 to the under as a prime-time starter since 2020. Baker Mayfield is 13-2 to the under in prime time. Both of these defenses are stout, and Tampa has managed to navigate some serious injuries on that side of the ball. Expect the Falcons to try to pound the ball on the ground. Falcons games within the NFC South averaged 29.5 points last season. Bucs games within the division averaged 25.25 points. Falcons just played a prime time under vs the Chiefs. Bucs are 6-4 to the under on road since start of ’23 and Falcons are 7-4 to the under at home in that span.