There’s a prevailing sentiment that these teams will automatically revert to their means Monday night given the Jaguars beat the Bills last year in London, but I don’t buy into that supposition. Jacksonville has looked awful, and its offense – the unit most relied upon to compete with Buffalo – has been the culprit. The Jags have averaged 15 points across two games and now face a consistent Bills team in a tough environment. I was iffy about -5.5, but with the spread dropping to a key number, the Bills are tasty. Josh Allen has completed 74% of his passes with no turnovers. The only way the Jags put up a fight is if he falters in the red zone. Buffalo does enough to cover.

Doug P. Throws it to the TE. The bills are bad b the TE. Bills not great v TE. Gimmie

Jax has run the fewest plays so far…and Buffalo allows among the most plays. This means Jax stats should climb by 20%. Plus, the Jags don’t run it well…Etienne is under 60 rush yards in 12 of his last 14. Over

The sure-handed TE hasn't had quite his expected usage thus far, but he was getting schemed into the game plan against Miami before leaving with an injury. The Bills love to throw to their TEs near the goal line, and this is a value price on one of their top weapons to find the end zone for the first time this season.

No Pro Bowl tight end Evan Engram again tonight for the Jags, which means Brenton Strange should be a popular target for Trevor Lawrence a second straight week. Buffalo allowed six catches to Miami top tight end Jonnu Smith in Week 2 and five catches to Arizona's Trey McBride in Week 1 -- seven total tight end catches in each game. Strange was targeted six times last week vs. Cleveland and caught three. Engram was a late scratch, too, so presumably Strange got plenty of first-team offensive run this week to prepare for a start instead of being a surprise one like in Week 2.

Buffalo ran A shockingly low number of past plays last week due to an irregular game script. Kincaid has not been adjusted up accordingly..

With Evan Engram out, Brenton Strange suddenly has a valuable role in the Jaguars' offense. PFF credited Strange, a freakish athlete, with seven targets in Week 2; he caught three passes for 65 yards. Looking at Buffalo's defense, all three corners are solid but the linebackers are weak in coverage and the safeties are only average in coverage. The Bills' pass rush is rolling, so Trevor Lawrence will need to get rid of the ball fast. Look for Strange to make at least three grabs Monday night.

Admittedly we're jumping a bit into the deep end here with the Jags, who have demonstrated a capability to blow games in a variety of forms since last December. They've lost and failed to cover seven of eight since, including the first two this season vs. the Dolphins and Browns, games J'ville could have easily won. The heat is building beneath Doug Pederson. But this matchup vs. the Bills has worked okay for Jacksonville lately, including a 25-20 win in London last season. We are still not completely sold on this current Buffalo edition, which got into a desperate fight with the Cards in the opener before barely surviving, then taking advantage of Tua's injury in the Thursday night win at Miami. Play Jags

Jacksonville is only averaging 15 points per game. Their defense is allowing 8.6 yards per pass on the road and have a tough matchup against a Bills team averaging 32.5 points per game. The total has gone over in the last five meetings in Buffalo but in their four most recent games, the game went under the total in three of four. The Bills should be able to take advantage of this Jacksonville defense, but the total has gone under in four of the last six games when the Bills play a home night game in October since 2022.

I think both of these teams slow the game down with the running game and both defenses are formidable enough to keep the game close through two quarters of football. I lean to the Jags on the full game spread, but I don't trust Trevor Lawrence in the clutch. Look for long and sustained drives from both teams leading to a closer game than people think.

The Jaguars could easily be 2-0 instead of 0-2, if not for a Travis Etienne goal line fumble in week 1, and a close loss in week 2. The Bills are now without defensive signal-caller LB Terrel Bernard, and are still missing a key DB in Taron Johnson. Despite scoring just 30 points through 2 games, Jacksonville has actually been able to create some explosive offense, hitting on 8 plays for 20+ yards. This wide spread feels like an overreaction. Before Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa got injured, Miami and Buffalo were in a much closer game than the 31-10 final score reflects. This is a buy-low spot on the Jags, and a sell-high spot on the Bills. Consider buying to +6 up to -125 odds.

In week 1 against the Cardinals, Cook had 3 catches for 32 yards. The following week, he had one TD grab for 17 yards, and was largely scripted out of the game later on after Buffalo got out to a large lead. This week, Cook should have plenty of opportunities to surpass this modest total. The Bills may not have a clear alpha WR1 this entire season. They should involve Cook in the passing game all year, and he is likely to be featured against a Jacksonville defense that blitzes aggressively and plays a high rate of man coverage. Cook is shifty in space, and he may only need one or two looks to cash this for us.

The Bills run-first identity under new OC Joe Brady will regularly create long drives that bleed clock, and sap the life out of a game. Music to our ears as Under bettors. Public betting tickets and money on the handle is on the Over, yet the total is down 4 points from the original opening line of 49.5. Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence and this offense have not gotten off to an efficient start, and have had some bad luck in the red zone to boot. They should look to establish the run game in this matchup with their bell cow RB Travis Etienne. Lawrence is 32-22 to the Under for his career, making him the 3rd most profitable "Under" QB to back in the league.

I'm on the Bills to win the 1st quarter here at -0.5 (-108). The Bills have a strong home-field advantage and are well-rested after a pseudo-bye week against Miami, where they didn’t have to do much, and Josh Allen avoided taking hits. Jacksonville will likely play aggressive man coverage early, which should open up opportunities for Josh Allen to use his legs and extend a scripted opening drive.

Primetime unders are 12-6 this season with an average total of 43 points. Jags are 5-4 to the under dating to start of last season. Bils are 6-4 to the under at home in that spans. Teams played a 45 point game last season. BUF wants to pound the ball and bleed the clock, and Jags can't score (10 offensive TDs in last 6 games). Trevor Lawrence barely completing half his passes and 32-22 to the under as a starter. Jags have scored just 30 points this season. Defense ain't bad though and game totals are 37 and 31 this season.

Over Trevor Lawrence’s last seven starts the Jaguars are winless. But this creates a value spot on an over reaction. Jacksonville was still in both of their games thanks to their defense, in two close losses. Additionally, Jacksonville excelled in last year’s London 25-20 win over Buffalo. The defense limited the Bills to just twenty nine rushing yards, and Trevor Lawrence had one of this two 300 yard passing games on the season. Grab the points with Jacksonville.

When Terrel Bernard suffered a pectoral injury in Week 2, Baylon Spector replaced him and wore the green dot as the defensive signal-caller. He finished with 10 tackles and a 16.1 percent tackle rate. He missed two tackles and wasn't great in coverage, but the main thing is he didn't come off the field.

The Jaguars haven't looked good in both of their games, both losses, covering one against the Dolphins. Both games were also under the total. The root cause of all the demise is Trevor Lawrence looking bad; he didn't even complete 50% last week in their loss to the Browns. And then he completed 12 of 21 against the Dolphins. He looks like a quarterback from the seventies. It's a continuation from last year where they've lost seven of their last eight games overall. As for the Bills, I don't have anything but positives to say about them. They score on almost every possession and the new guys are maybe better than the old guys. One team is rolling and the other teams struggling. Bills cover.

Despite a slow start to the season, I still remain bullish on Dalton Kincaid and expect him to be the focal point of the Bills passing attack. Josh Allen only attempted 19 passes in Week 2's blowout victory over the Dolphins, thus Kincaid had a quiet performance. I rate Buffalo's Week 3 opponent the Jags defense as a plus matchup against as they are 21st in EPA per dropback, in addition to surrendering the 8th most yards to opposing TEs last season. We're getting a nice discount on this line.

Cook is easily over this in two games so far this season and is over 100 yards scrimmage in 4 of the last 5 games. Bills offense runs through him and Josh Allen's hand might still be a little iffy here. Jags D isn't special. Made a habit of giving up 85 or more scrimmage yards to RBs. Bills OL imposing their will in the run game. Ample screen potential here, too

The Bills have scored 30 points in back to back games to open the season, but I'm not sure their offense has been that good. They benefited from great field position in the Miami game and took some time to get in a rhythm against a bad Arizona defense. Now they face a Jags team that is unlucky to be 0-2 (the kind of team we should be looking to back) and destroyed a Bills defense with a beat-up back seven last year to the tune of 474 yards. The Jags can score in this matchup, so even if the Bills are outside the number late we're live for a backdoor cover.