White medians over 20 in the stretch run. Let’s go over the 16.5 v this pourous Philly D. Half unit

Baker medians around 30 and Philly opponents run less plays than average. I’ll go under

There’s no denying that the Eagles and Buccaneers appear headed in different directions. Philadelphia seems to be in disarray, but Tampa Bay has scored 24 points in a win at Carolina and loss to New Orleans over the last two weeks. A.J. Brown may be out, but the Eagles have plenty of weapons, including Jalen Hurts himself. The talent differential is vast, and while there may be some internal issues in Philly, these guys are professionals with many nearly going all the way last season. I find it hard to believe the Eagles will not regroup and get one win when it matters most. Look for -2.5 right before kickoff, but at +100 odds, a field goal is still a play.

A lot of things sure line up for Hurts to throw a pick tonight: It's raining in the Tampa area, he is without his No. 1 security blanket in AJ Brown, and a digit on Hurts' throwing hand was mangled in Week 18 so any deep balls are likely to be inaccurate as Hurts surely will be playing with that finger heavily taped.

When on the road, the Eagles have gone over this total once in the last 7 games. And that was against Washington who is defenseless. And it was awhile ago. Under 23.5

I've been back and forth all week but I believe the Eagles rally and silence the doubters for at least one week. This is a big mismatch on paper but the Eagles have been completely reeling over the last 7 weeks. The Eagles take care of business and gut out a victory against an over-matched Bucs team.

Both of these teams limped into the playoffs, quite literally. The Eagles and Buccaneers are littered with injuries to key players. Star WR AJ Brown is out, and Jalen Hurts is playing with a recently dislocated finger. On the Buccaneers side, Baker Mayfield seems to be grimacing after every hit he takes these past two weeks. If Mayfield is compromised Tampa will be in trouble, as the Buc's rush offense ranks bottom five in the league. The Eagles have also struggled against the blitz this season, and Bucs head coach Todd Bowles blitzes at the 3rd highest rate in the NFL. Play this Under the key number of 43.

Tampa Bay is the popular underdog play of wild-card weekend as bettors appear to be rushing to bet the Bucs as if they are reading the box score. The bottom line is if the Eagles have checked out as some reports suggest, this game should be no different than their recent disappointments. If they haven't, this is a clear value spot on a team that once looked headed toward the top seed in the NFC and crushed the Bucs 25-11 in Week 3. If the Eagles can rediscover their competitive grit and take advantage of this favorable matchup, they have a great chance to salvage their season next week at Detroit with a berth in the NFC title game at stake.

Julio Jones is another player who should benefit from the absence of AJ Brown. He should provide the size and catch radius at WR that is missing without Brown and that the other receivers lack. I don't trust his yards as much, especially since I see him more has a red zone threat. Jones finished the season with 11 targets and 6 receptions in the final four games.

Is playoff Kenny Gainwell back? Last season Gainwell averaged around 24 yards in the regular season but over 60 in the three playoff games. But even recently, after a 7 week under stretch from 10/1-11/20, he has since gone 5-2 to the over. Our model has him projected for 42 yards (29 rushing and 13 receiving).

Only so many places to go on this Philadelphia offense right now. A lot of the attention will be headed towards DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. Jalen Hurts' pass yard line is set at around 220 yards. With Smith and Goedert making up 120 of those yards in our sims and also in the books, there's at least 70 yards of wealth to be shared. When not relegated to the bench, Quez Watkins accounts for >12% of Philly's receiving yards. Without AJ Brown and Smith last week vs NYG, he had 11 targets, 8 receptions, and 93 yards. While Smith will be participating this week, I think there is still plenty of room for Watkins to cash this.

Running the ball on the road in the playoffs is tried and true. Eagles need it badly here with their QB's throwing hand messed up and down their best WR. They have a bullish offensive line that mauled a stout Tampa rush D for 200+ in the first meeting. The combo of Hurts and Swift in the backfield and option looks presented problems in the first meeting. Swift has 61+ in 5 of his last 7 games. Got to 130 vs TB On just 16 carries. I could see more jumbo packages with extra OL. If Hurts finger makes it harder for him to secure ball from fumbling, then even more Swift. It's a crowded backfield so rushing attempts prop too snug for me.

The Eagles have major slot issues as we noted. In the last 5 weeks, with the Bucs getting hot, Otton leads them with 75 routes run from the slot. The targets aren't always there, but I like this matchup with the Eagles so compromised in the secondary and needing to play corners at safety. Lack some size on the back end. LBs not great in coverage. I don't think an injured Baker Mayfield will be pushing it deep, and he might be under some duress here if Eagles ramp up their blitzing with the QB ailing. Baker averaged just 5.8/attempt in the first meeting, and this is about a big target a few yards downfield who can keep the chains moving.

Philly ran for 201 yards in its Week 3 domination of the Bucs, but Tampa Bay's front seven is healthy now and stopping the run (3.6 ypc last three games). Much has been made of the Eagles' offensive injuries (A.J. Brown, Jalen Hurts), but not enough attention has been paid to Philly's secondary. If Reed Blankenship, who did not practice all week due to a groin injury, can't play, Philly will be without two of its top three safeties. (Sydney Brown tore his ACL versus the Giants in Week 18). Corner Darius Slay is returning but has not played in more than a month. That's a bad recipe versus the Bucs' biggest strength: Wideouts Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

While the Bucs have only scored TDs in one of their last nine quarters of action, they look a more desirable option than the visiting Birds, who hardly look the same team that won at this site by a 25-11 count back in September. The wheels came off in December as the Birds lost five of their last six and looked to be a team in distress most of those weeks, and now top deep threat AJ Brown out is out... should Philly really be laying points to anybody? Tampa Bay did win five of six to claim another NFC South crown, and though the Bucs underachieved vs. the number at home this season, they were 7-3-1 as an underdog. Play Bucs

First-team All Pro safety Antoine Winfield made 11 combined tackles versus the Eagles in Week 3. He's cleared this prop total in six of his last eight games. Scheme-wise, this is a good matchup for Winfield. He's an elite player at the top of his game and I'm expecting him to make a huge impact Monday.

As the Bucs' receiving tight end, Cade Otton has no competition. He has 47 grabs, and the other active tight ends have combined for six catches all season. Otton is facing an Eagles' defense that's weak at linebacker and has allowed 35 catches to tight ends over the past six games (5.8 per game). In that span, opposing tight ends have put up 68-plus receiving yards four times.

The Bucs went 11-6 on Unders this season, and the finale landed way-y-y Under in a 9-0 game. QB Baker Mayfield is coping with a sore rib and ankle, which clearly inhibited him against Carolina. His counterpart, Jalen Hurts, injured a finger on his throwing hand last weekend. Hurts will miss WR A.J. Brown (knee) and must deal with a blitz-minded defense. He has tossed eight interceptions against blitzes, most in the league. The potent Philly offense that we knew and loved ain't what it used to be.

Here's the token field goal prop I like most in the Wild Card round. McClaughlin has made multiple successful three-pointers in 5 of his last 6 games and 12 out of 17 this season. Opposing kickers have made two or more field goals in five of Philadelphia's last seven games. With the Eagles defense likely to bend, if not break, Tampa Bay should have a number of scoring opportunities on Monday night.

The last two months of the season have been very concerning for the Eagles. Just as concerning is the added layer of injuries to key players including Jalen Hurts (finger on throwing hand), AJ Brown (knee) and DeVonta Smith (ankle). We're likely not going to know their true injury status until kickoff but I suspect each player will be affected. Add to that the Eagles defense has just been deplorable and I think we may have a home outright victory on our hands, but I'll take the three points.

The Philadelphia Eagles have struggled to defend against tight ends this season. Since their Week 10 BYE, opposing tight ends have exceeded this number in seven out of eight games. In week 11, Kelce had 44 yards, Kincaid had 38 yards in week 12, Kittle had 68 yards in week 13, Fergerson had 72 yards in week 14, Waller had 32 yards in week 16, McBride had 48 yards in week 17, and Waller had 45 yards in week 18. Cade Otton plays 90% of the snaps, and according to my model, he is expected to have 42 receiving yards. However, simulations predict he will have 48.9 receiving yards.

Mike Evans scored in six of eight home games, racking up seven touchdowns. In the first meeting with Philly, Evans caught five of 10 targets for 60 yards and a score. The Eagles' defense has cratered since and has given up over 30 points per game over the last six contests. This is a great matchup for Evans, who leads Tampa Bay in red-zone targets. Philly has given up 35 passing touchdowns, second-most behind Washington, with 27 of those going to wideouts.

Mayfield isn't 100% but a high-percentage pass game suites him and he has lots of weapons and this Egales secondary is broken. They chuck it around in the redzone and the run game remains more hit than miss and this is a favorable match-up, at home, to take shots into the endzone. It's hit in 4 of the last 5 games. Mayfield had 28 of these this season, not too shabby. Eagles gave up a ridiculous 35 passing TDs this season, second-most in the NFL.

Baker Mayfield is beat up, this to me will be an under game dictated by the run games, and Tampa has to control TOP through White. He's over this in four of the last five games, with 19+ in those games. That has keyed their run to the division title. He had 14 carries in the first meeting with Philly, but TB runs the ball more now and more effectively. This isn't a split backfield whatsoever and the QB doesn't really run. Todd Bowles is going to want to keep the clock moving and play it safe with his QB ailing. I don't think the Eagles pull away enough to negate the Bucs intent to run the ball.

Godwin is finally back to peak form and effectiveness and looks like a top slot weapon again. He has 4 times as many routes run in the slot as any Buccaneer and 51+ receiving yards in 5 straight. The Eagles allowed the most slot receptions (153) for 12.4/catch (31st) with 10 TDs. Ouch. Everyone feasts against this secondary recently and they have to focus on Mike Evans, too. Godwin averaging 4.8 YAC/catch the last 5 weeks, so even if Baker Mayfield is limited and can't push the ball downfield, Godwin can get us home underneath running after the catch

I believe this number is too high considering the state of both of these offenses. Also Jalen Hurts injured his finger in his throwing hand, AJ Brown is Questionable, and DeVonta Smith is nursing an injury as well. Baker Mayfield is also banged up and operating at less than 100%. I believe the Eagles will attempt to play keep away and rely heavily on their ground game,while simultaneously limiting Jalen Hurts dropbacks.

The Eagles have not looked like themselves for weeks, and now they limp into the playoffs dealing with injuries on both sides of the ball. Injuries to two safeties make a weak secondary even weaker, but the big news to monitor will be the status of Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, who are all managing injuries. The Tampa defense has gotten healthier recently and is coming off a great game on the road, while the Bucs offense should be able to light up this bad Philly unit. The Eagles' recent run of poor performance should make them 'dogs in this game, and I'll happily grab the full field goal at DraftKings.

Both QBs dealing with potential serious injury and neither of whom could push ball downfield in Week 18. Injury report could drag this lower. Bucs are 6-2 Under at home; Eagles 7-2 Under on road. Average Bucs home game: 34.75 points (29th); average Eagles road game: 42 (20th). Only 3 of 9 Eagles road games over 38 (PHI score 21 or less 5 of last 6 on road). Seven of 8 Bucs homes games under 42. These teams produced 36 points Week 3. Eagles pass game was crushed by the blitz. Eagles pass D is bad but I think they play two deep and let the Bucs run. Eagles ran 40 times in the first meeting. I played at 44.5 Sun night and it's gone..