The breakout rookie QB has clipped this number six times this season and logged 20 rushing yards last week in Houston's win over the Colts. But the defining basis for this play is that Stroud has taken to making plays with his feet when a play breaks down as opposed to forcing the ball and potentially causing a turnover. Against a stout Cleveland passing defense, he needs just one decent scramble to hit this number.

Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah has been a pro-bowl caliber linebacker this season for the Cleveland Browns. The former ACC defensive player of the year out of Notre Dame, has logged 6+ tackles in each of his last 8 games, including an impressive 7 solo tackles in his last outing against the Jets. I expect Owusu-Koramoah to be all over the field, playing with intensity in this game. In his last matchup against the Texans, Owusu-Koramoah had 6 tackles, two passes deflected, and an interception. I'm expecting another strong game from him.

The Texans enter with home-field advantage and one of the most impressive rookie quarterbacks in years, while the Browns have the rest advantage after most of their stars sat out in Week 18. Before that, Cleveland won and covered four straight – all as favorites. Yes, the Browns defense is worse on the road. Substantially. But, yes, Stroud is a rookie in his first playoff game going up against a former Super Bowl MVP in Joe Flacco who is on a 7-0 ATS run in playoff games. Stroud is good and is only going to get better, but this Browns defense is going to pressure him constantly. Cleveland is one of two wild card teams that have an outside chance at reaching its league championship.

I like Cleveland here. The Texans are a team that struggles in the man coverage scheme employed by Cleveland and I think Flacco and co do enough to get a W

It has been a bit of a wild ride for the Browns down the stretch, with Joe Flacco (one of FIVE starting QBs for Cleveland this season!) resurrecting his career in unexpected fashion, throwing for 300+ yard sin his last four starts, and the Browns turning into a hot "over" recommendation (6-1 the last seven games). Flacco's ride has really been of the white-knuckle variety as he's also tossing too many picks (8 in his five starts), but Cleveland moved freely on the Texans defense three weeks ago when Amari Cooper also caught a whopping 265 yards worth of passes. That Dec. 24 clash landed on 58 without CJ Stroud (now back to active duty) available for the Texans. Play Browns-Texans "Over"

Can't draw too many conclusions from the December matchup between these two when the Texans were minus CJ Stroud, and forced to deploy Cade Keenum and Davis Mills at QB. The 36-22 final score flattered Houston, which was down 36-7 midway in the 4th Q. That result also showed Joe Flacco at his best for the Brownies, passing for 368 yards and 3 TDs, one of a trio of 300+ YP games to close his season as this hard-to-believe storyline continues. Oh, yes, Amari Cooper also had 265 (!) receiving yards. Mostly, however, note how the physical Browns defense battered Houston until garbage time on Dec. 24, similar to how the Jets' roughhouse tactics bullied Houston two weeks earlier. Play Browns

The Browns have so much more playoff experience than the Texans and Joe Flacco is playing for cash in this spot with a $250k bonus on the line if Cleveland advances. Houston's pass funnel defense sets up for Amari Cooper and David Njoku to produce in the air via Flacco and C.J. Stroud is a rookie starting his first playoff game.

This Browns offense is relatively healthy and has the firepower to put up a lot of points against a Texans secondary that can be beat. While I do fear potential turnovers from Flacco and a likely one-dimensional offense, I also think the Texans may struggle a bit against this Browns defense. The absence of Tank Dell is likely to reveal itself this week and if Singletary is as inefficient as he was last week, it'll be both teams that are one-dimensional. Give me the experience and the better overall team.

The Browns saw offenses average 44.2 pass attempts against them from Weeks 13 though 17, the most of any defense in that span. That includes the Texans, who attempted 49 passes with backups while playing from behind. Stroud has thrown at least 35 passes in 4 of 5 losses he played every snap in, and at least 37 passes in 3 of 5 games he played when the Texans won by less than a touchdown. That favors Stroud's passing since I'm not expecting a Texans blowout, and so does this: Three Browns defensive backs are on the injury report for the game. Two might play, but none should deter the Texans from throwing, and if they wind up trailing they'll throw a bunch anyway.

We knew going into Flacco's starts that he tends to lock onto playmakers and Njoku has been no exception: The Chief has at least eight targets and six catches in each of his past four games with Flacco. That includes six grabs at Houston in Week 16's 14-point win. The Texans have allowed a 73% catch rate to tight ends on the year, the ninth-highest in football. And Houston has seen 8.1 targets per game on average to tight ends collectively. But here's where the fun begins: All four of the TEs with eight-plus targets against the Texans have had at least six catches, as have 3 of the 4 tight ends with at least seven targets.

Singletary has been under this number in 5 of his past 7 games. He gets a lot of carries, but is frequently inefficient; last week at Indy is a good example. Singletary's played eight games with C.J. Stroud where he's played at least 50% of the snaps and had 12-plus touches, and he's topped 84 total yards three times. It gets worse: Only five RBs have 84 or more total yards against the Browns this year, and one of them came last week when Cleveland was resting many of its starters, so really it's four times in 16 games. It's a tough spot.

The Browns have gone pass-heavy since Joe Flacco arrived, and I like them to continue that approach against Houston, which is much better against the run. He's thrown 42-plus times in four of his five starts. Regardless of game script, look for Flacco to clear this prop total.

For better or for worse, it seems to be Devin Singletary's run game. He got all the RB carries vs Indianapolis, and seems to be the guy they trust to move the chains. On top of that, Cleveland's run defense seems to be more vulnerable on the road, allowing 4.7 YPC. Our Sportsline Model projects him for 78 yards.

We're getting a skewed line here for CJ Stroud. He would have gone under 200 yards vs Indianapolis if not for the opening 75-yard pass. Houston committed to the run with a nearly 50% run rate the last two weeks combined in must win situations. Cleveland's defense only allowed 226 yards per game on the road this season (185 overall). It was their run defense where they were vulnerable. Our Sportsline Model makes the number 222.

Stroud has been excellent at home this season, throwing at least one touchdown in each of the eight home games he played in, and 2+ TD passes in six of eight. Against a Browns defense that has allowed multiple TD passes in four of its last six games, I'll take my chances. I expect this game to be higher scoring than expected (Cleveland 8-0 to the over on the road this season) so at worst, Stroud will need to keep up.

This has dropped to 2 at a few books because of some injury news today. Browns Pro Bowl cornerback Denzel Ward was hurt in practice and now is questionable. That Cleveland defense was much worse on the road during the season. Safety Grant Delpit and kicker Dustin Hopkins already are out. Another safety, Juan Thornhill, is iffy. Houston, meanwhile, got great injury news across the board today with the likes of injured WRs Noah Brown and Robert Woods and top pass-rushers Will Anderson and Jonathan Greenard all practicing.

The Browns defense has been night and day this season depending on whether they're at home or on the road, where their best performance was giving up 22 points to Houston's backup QBs a few weeks back. Now they have to face Stroud, who has avoided interceptions in 12 of his 15 starts as a rookie. You can chalk some of that up to a relatively easy slate of defenses he's faced this year, but clearly he's already elite at protecting the ball and not making mistakes typical of most rookie QBs. I'll back him to be the same QB in this playoff matchup and not throw a pick.

CJ Stroud is a stud and he kills zone defenses, but he is going to see a ton of man here from Jim Schwartz, who is playing it 40% of the time and way more than he ever has before. Stroud has been impeccable protecting the ball, but this is a big step up, he will be under pressure from a top pass rush (his tackles false starts and flinching is a big tell) and all it takes is a tip or slip. I expect them to have to chase the game and throw a little more than they'd like and if such a preponderance of targets keep going to Nico Collins, Denzel Ward is going to jump a route.

Njoku is easy to pick out, he runs a full route tree and can pick up big yards through air yards and YAC. He will be a problem for the smaller members of this Texans secondary after the catch and is always looking to turn up field with that massive frame. He's averaged 75 yards/G in the 5 he played with Joe Flacco and has 90+ in three of them. After Amari Cooper ran up 265 yards at Houstin a few weeks back, defense has to roll strong to him. Njoku will feast more and go way above the 44 yards he had in the first meeting. Good for 10 targets here

Njoku had 4 TDs in 5 starts with Joe Flacco, he gets the most looks in the RZ in this revamped Browns offense and the Texans have up 100 completions to TEs, second-most in the NFL, allowing 73% completions to them (24th). He has a rare physique and long levers and you can't bracket him too much with all the speed the Browns have on the outside. Can score with YAC after the catch and seemed genuinely mad at himself for somehow not scoring in last game he played vs Jets. He'll have ample chance to hit paydirt here and this is a nice return.

It's not just that the Browns threw more than any team in the final two months of the season, it's that they take deep shot after deep shot and are undeterred by the inevitable INTs. Flacco is 300+ four in a row and damn near threw for 400 at Houston. Texans are a middling defense vs big plays, and 27th in yards/pass allowed. Flacco was 2nd in the NFL in completions of 25+ during his five-game run and he has math-up winners downfield across the board. Texans allowed 2nd most pass yards vs play action and Flacco is an early-down, play-action demon, Maybe they don't need to throw 43 times here with a lead, but I still see 275+ from Flacco while building that lead.

Flacco is one of the most accomplished road playoff QBs in NFL history. He's done this in every start with the Browns, including one already at Houston. He leads the NFL with 13 TDs passes between Week 13 (when he took over as starter) and Week 17 (he sat Week 18 and is fresh off a makeshift bye). Texans pass D is very leaky, and Browns don't mind throwing in the RZ. Coach Kevin Stefanki can live with the turnovers and Flacco is empowered to chuck it around. Part of me thinks Browns win going away, which cuts down on Flacco attempts perhaps under 40 ... But Texans are stout on the ground and Browns threw the ball more than any team final seven weeks.

The Browns come into this game rested, but I'm not necessarily expecting them at their best in this matchup. It could come down to whether Houston gets Jonathan Greenard back. He barely played in the first Cleveland game, which Will Anderson also missed, and the Browns had no issues moving the ball. If Greenard is back, Houston can put more pressure on Joe Flacco, who I think the market is overrating on a small sample size. Houston's offense can be explosive against a Browns defense that struggles on the road. I don't think there's much of a gap between these teams, and I believe the Texans can get the win here.

The Browns No. 1 defense is allowing just 270 ypg but they’ve gone Over the total in six of their last seven games. They’re also the third-best cover team at 11-6 ATS. They won at Houston in Week 16, but QB C.J. Stroud was out. The Browns rested players last week and ended their four-game win and cover streak. QB Joe Flacco is slinging it like it’s 2010 again. Flacco has been a weapon. But the reason I bet this game was that No. 1 defense. I’m on the Browns to cover.

I don't mind this -2.5 but I'll play it safer. Dustin Hopkins injury gives me a little pause and maybe this ends up being a 1-2 point win. Bottom line - Joe Flacco is one of the best road QBs in playoff history, he is fresh and rested and in a perfect system for his bombs-away approach. Texans are a very young team with a rookie QB and a staff of guys in this role for the first time. Browns just won here a few weeks back, albeit without CJ Stroud playing. Browns also got to treat Week 18 as a bye while Texans played what amounted to a road playoff game. I'll lean into their experience, QB and superior defense for the win.

Cleveland didn't have to face C.J. Stroud in Week 16, as the Browns rolled to a 36-22 win in Houston. Stroud is a huge upgrade over Case Keenum, but this rested defense is poised to frustrate him. First-time playoff QBs typically struggle. Browns cornerbacks Denzel Ward and Martin Emerson match up well with Nico Collins and the rest of Houston's healthy wideouts. Cleveland allows 5.2 yards per pass attempt, second-fewest in the NFL. Joe Flacco averaged 8.1 yards per attempt in the first meeting with Houston, throwing for 364 yards while getting sacked once. That was the first of three straight games Texans sack leader Jonathan Greenard (ankle) missed; his status for Saturday is unclear. This line has hit 3 at some books.

Browns road Overs went 8-0; average total: 51, a sure thing no matter the QB. Browns led NFL In passing attempts and passing TDs Week 13-17 with Joe Flacco at QB. Browns allowed 29.6 PPG on the road, tied for last, and scored 28.6 PPG with Flacco. The average Texans home game totaled 43 points. These two teams combined for 58 points in Houston and Stroud didn't play. Both teams are in top 8 in fastest TOP/play. Seven of eight Browns road games are over 44. Texans have scored at least 20 in every home game with Stroud and lack consistent run game. Browns have run 50 more offensive plays than any team. Jumping this under key total 44 while I can