These teams met three weeks ago in overtime game the Vikings should have covered (and we should have won in regulation). Since then, Minnesota is 2-0 with a blowout of Atlanta, while Chicago is 0-2 having been blown out by San Francisco. With the Bears led by a new interim coach (Thomas Brown) who started the season as passing game coordinator, which staff do you believe has made the most adjustments from that first meeting? Probably the Vikings, which now have a chance at the No. 1 seed in the NFC, right? Minnesota is not the class of its conference, but it deserves this line at home against a team that struggles away from Soldier Field. This should hit -6.5 (-115) before kickoff.

The Bears have faced the 8th fewest attempts to TEs in the NFL, which explains why in part they have allowed just 3 TDs to TEs all season. However, they are allowing over 9 yards per attempt to them and a passer rating of 102 when they are targeted and Hockenson is overdue for a TD, yet to catch one this season. Sam Darnold will connect with him soon; it's inevitable. And the value is there now. He is 3rd on the team in targets in RZ since he returned from injury (behind the starting WR) and with Josh Oliver beat up I like his chances of scoring tonight.

I was hoping to wait this out and get it at -6.5, but it doesn't seem like that's going to happen. This could end up pushing, which is boring, but I still have value here, as my projections put this line at -7.5 in Minnesota's favor. I expect the Vikings to have a dominant defensive performance and come away with a big divisional win.

I also took the 1Q under here, and the thought process is simple: I don't expect the Bears to score in the first quarter, while I expect an opening drive score for the Vikings.

The Vikings are one of the best defensive teams in the NFL, while the Bears are as inconsistent as anyone on the offensive side of the ball. Chicago is a solid defensive team, which leads me to believe there will be a maximum of one score in the first quarter here.

Caleb Williams has gone seven straight games without throwing an interception. I like that streak to end Monday night against a Vikings team that leads the NFL with 20 picks. Williams has put the ball in dangerous spots lately, but opponents have not capitalized. Williams threw 47 times in the first meeting and likely will throw a ton in this matchup with his running backs really banged up. Kyler Murray and Kirk Cousins each got intercepted twice in their recent visits to Minnesota.

I have Williams going under his passing yards total tonight, but over on his rushing yards prop. Williams will be under duress against Minnesota's defense that owns the league's highest blitz rate (41.1%), and ranks 3rd in QB pressure rate. The Bears are missing two starting offensive linemen, and Williams has already been one of the league's most sacked quarterbacks. Williams will have no choice but to take off and run.

Coaching debuts aren't supposed to go as bad as they did for Bears interim Thomas Brown last week vs. the Niners, especially getting outgained 319-4 yards (really!) in the first half. Meanwhile the 11-2 Vikings have been perhaps the success story of the season, and have been thrown a lifeline in the NFC North thanks to the Bills beating the Lions on Sunday. With another game remaining vs. Detroit, and level with the Lions if able to beat the Bears tonight, Minnesota now controls its own destiny to win the North. Kevin O'Connell also doesn't have to remind his Vikes that they needed OT to subdue Chicago in the first meeting at Soldier Field on November 24. Play Vikings

Caleb Williams threw for 340 yards in the Bears-Vikings 30-27 meeting that went into overtime in Week 12. Despite that, oddsmakers have the Vikings as wide -7 favorites, and have Williams’ passing yards line set in the mid-220 range. I think that is indicative that this game will go differently. Minnesota’s defense still ranks #1 in DVOA. Williams has struggled against zone defenses this season, so this second time around, I expect Vikings DC Brian Flores to fluster him with his unique zone blitz looks. The Bears starting C Ryan Bates & starting LT Braxton Jones will both miss this game with concussion issues. Williams will be under duress and struggle tonight.

Just a few weeks ago, Aaron Jones dominated against this Bears defense rushing for 106 yards & a touchdown on 22 carries. Chicago’s defense was stout to begin the year, but all of a sudden they rank 27th in rush yards allowed per game (134.8). The Bears remain without Safety Jaquan Brisker, and are now missing DT Gervon Dexter. The Vikings should be playing with the lead, and a positive or neutral game script should allow Jones to get enough touches to clear this rush yards total.

The Minnesota Vikings have won six straight and the Chicago Bears have lost seven straight and they hook up tonight in Minnesota. It looks like a no-brainer right? The Vikings are going to kill them right? Thomas Brown the new head coach, who got embarrassed at San Francisco last week, gets a second shot and has a great chance of avoiding an eighth straight loss. The biggest thing that caught my mind was that rookie Caleb Williams hasn't had an interception in their seven-game losing streak. The six-game win streak the Vikings have come against teams .500 or less. Of the last 10 meetings between the Bears and Vikings, the Vikings would have covered three times with the current spread. Bears cover.

I’m taking 0.1u lean here on the 1Q u7.5 -115, as I have the line priced closer to -125. I expect a slow start offensively from Chicago and just a single scoring drive from the Vikings with the clock moving quickly.

I think we're all in agreement that this is a bad Bears team and that Minnesota could win this one by double digits. With that said, Caleb and Company seem to pile up the points and the yards when they're getting blown out in second halves. I'd like to target the 1st half as that's when teams typically jump all over the Bears. The Bears have been down at halftime by 4 or more in 6 out of their last 7 games. I don't see why that changes against a Vikings team that seems to be getting better as they look toward the playoffs.

FanDuel. Caleb Williams has cleared this line in 7 of his last 9 games, including a 33 yard performance against the Vikings. Minnesota blitzes and pressures the quarterback at a top 2 rate. Per PFF, Williams’ scramble rate doubles against quarterback pressures. And with the Bears running game in question, I expect Williams to have to drop back plenty in this game. Would play this line up to over 26.5.

In six true home games this season, Sam Darnold has thrown 17 touchdown passes. He had at least two TD throws in five of those six. Over their past six games, the Bears rank dead last in yards per attempt allowed. Opposing QBs are feasting and we know Darnold, with his mentor Kevin O'Connell dialing up splash plays, will stay aggressive.

Jordan Addison went off against the Bears on Nov. 24, catching eight passes for 162 yards, including a 69-yarder. He's cleared his longest reception prop in four straight games. Over that span, Addison owns a 30 percent target share and has drawn 42 percent of Minnesota's air yards. The Bears rank 30th in explosive pass rate allowed.

Swift has barely practiced all week but interim offensive coordinator Chris Beatty thinks he'll practice Sunday and play Monday. That's good, because he's been under this total in four straight and has been incredibly inefficient for six games. Per NFL analytics genius Warren Sharp, if you take away a 39-yard run by Swift against the Packers, he has averaged 3.0 yards per carry since Week 9. That's awful. We already know Swift isn't a three-down player for Chicago, we know he's not at 100%, and I do not expect the Bears to be playing with a lead, especially against a Vikings defense that's let up just 3.7 yards per carry to RBs over its past four games including 2.1 against Chicago three weeks ago.

D'Andre Swift has been extremely inefficient since the 20-19 home loss to Green Bay, and now he's facing the NFL's top run defense. This should also be a negative game script. Look for Swift to stay Under his carries prop for the fifth straight game.

T.J. Hockenson's best game this season came against the Bears: 114 yards on seven catches. He is poised for another strong outing on Monday Night Football after catching four passes for 45 yards vs. Atlanta. Over the past three games, Chicago has given up 290 receiving yards and two touchdowns to opposing tight ends. For the season, the Bears give up the sixth-most receiving yards to tight ends (62.6).

T.J. Hockenson has surpassed 38.5 receiving yards in 7 of his last ten home games, averaging 59.2 yards during that stretch. Since returning from injury, he has averaged six targets per game this season. The Bears have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to tight ends this season. My model projects his receiving yards at 53.

The Vikings blew out the Falcons last week but gave up 496 yards of offense, so there's a path for the Bears to cover this number. But the overtime game these teams played three weeks ago had the Vikings up 11 on the road with about two minutes left before an improbable rally, and Chicago doesn't look like it's gotten any better after a complete no-show against the 49ers. With the team playing a third straight road game and an interim coach that may have been given too much responsibility too quickly, the Bears are a fade in this spot.

Darnold is playing superb football and he has been especially good at home. He just tossed two TDs at Chicago a few weeks back and I love it in this spot, too. The Bears secondary has been very stingy most of the year in allowing passing scores, but have had an opposing QB hit this in 3 straight games. Darnold has hit it in 3 straight home games. He has 17 passing TDs in 7 home games this season. Bears defense looked totally lost without Matt Eberflus last week and face a dangerous offense here that is familiar with it.

I've talked to some people in the league who have worked with Thomas Brown. Let's just say they are quite dubious he is equipped to prepare a team as a head coach whatsoever. Last week at SF was a total joke. Matt Eberflus is a terrible head coach but his defense was solid; this is like when the Jets fired Robert Saleh - the D took a big hit. Sam Darnold playing great ball and carved up the Bears in Chicago. Bears 2-4 ATS on road, fail to cover by 6.33/G (27th). Bears average just 14 PPG on road. MIN 5-2 ATS at home, +7.57 cover margin is 2nd best in NFL.

The Bears are winless outright on the road this season, with the worst one (38-13 at San Francisco) happening just last Sunday. They have two away wins the past two seasons. (One occurred on a Monday night, perhaps a hopeful sign here.) Adding to the challenge is this third consecutive outing that requires travel. A coaching change often spurs improvement, but Chicago regressed in its opener for interim Thomas Brown. The Vikings' lone home defeat was a two-pointer to Detroit -- the best team in the NFC, if not the NFL. QB Sam Darnold has been reborn in the Twin Cities.