David Montgomery to score a touchdown is certainly more than a 60% certainty. He scores is about 3/4 of all games. Let’s not get shy now. Roll with #5.

This is a division game on a short week with a lot on the line. Plus in looking at the previous games between these two teams, the over has come in only with unusual game scripts, such as defensive touchdowns, and special teams gaffes. Let play for a start that isn’t yielding 4 TDs or 3 TDs and 2 FGs.

Green Bay is the healthier team and very easily can make the case they are the better team. I feel like they have an excellent chance to win the game outright and getting three and the hook makes it too attractive for me to stay away.

Sometimes I simply bet a prop because it amuses me. This is one. Can't say I woke up today thinking about Bo Melton or even knew he existed. And if he catches one ball, this probably loses. But Melton has topped this five times all season and has been targeted but once in the past three games. Yeah, I know Romeo Doubs is out, but if Bo Melton is catching passes that means I probably won on Lions -3. Our model has Melton with as many catches and yards as me tonight.

Jordan Love has attempted more than 33 passes exactly once over his last six games. Green Bay's record in those 6 games? A robust 5-1 with the lone blemish coming against these same Lions when Love had 39 attempts. Detroit is a mash unit right now both along their defensive line and at at the LB position which means Matt Lafleur should go with a run heavy game script. Normally with a dog you worry about the game state getting away but I think the Packers are very live here and a positive result for them correlates to a relatively light passing load for Love. Under it is on QB1 as the Packers go run heavy in Motown in prime time

Sam LaPorta is healthy and has drawn six targets in three consecutive games. The yardage hasn't been there the past two weeks, but this is a great matchup against a Packers' defense that's been getting shredded by tight ends. Look for LaPorta to rack up at least 40 receiving yards.

Aman-Ra St. Brown is going to have a nice game today against the Packers who have been chirping about them not worrying about his play tonight. It's just talk and take what you want from it but I think St. Brown feels disrespected and he needs anything he can to motivate himself for a game. When the ball comes his way the ball is usually caught. He had five receptions in his last game for 73 yards and six receptions for 62 yards in the game before that. And the game before, he had 11 catches, 161 yards, and two touchdowns. He hasn't scored a touchdown the last two games which is a surprise since he has nine. St. Brown over yardage.

Jameson Williams loves playing at Ford Field. In home games, he produced 121, 79, 80 and 124 receiving yards before the Thanksgiving game vs. Chicago. In that contest, he was benched in the fourth quarter after drawing a costly unsportsmanlike conduct penalty. (He finished with five catches on seven targets for 28 yards). Unsolicited, Williams got up in front of the team afterward and apologized. Coach Dan Campbell says "it's all good" after the growth Williams showed. The Bears' elite corners were a tough matchup. Green Bay doesn't have Jaire Alexander and will be vulnerable to Williams' big-play ability.

Gone back and forth all day. The Packers come in with a lot of momentum and a revenge mindset after getting beaten easily at Lambeau Field. The Lions are down key defenders, but they’re not the only ones shorthanded. Jaire Alexander and Romeo Doubs remain out for Green Bay. Getting this at a field goal is key; it seems like the number is coming down closer to kickoff. I’d probably lean the Packers +4 or better, but of the two more likely outcomes, I’d prefer to have Detroit at -3 (up to -125). Even if Jordan Love continues having success, Jared Goff can match him, and I like the Lions to get pressure on Love pushing him off his spot more consistently.

In my eyes, the worst case scenario on this number is a push. I expect both offenses to come out firing, with the defenses adjusting as the game goes on. It was tempting to jump on this pick at 9.5 points, but the price (-145 or higher) was hard for me to justify.

Both teams have been fast starters and solid first half teams in 2024. With the injuries mounting on both defenses, this game has shootout potential. A 14-13 halftime score cashes this bet. I wouldn't be shocked if these teams combine for 30+ points in the first half on TNF.

Both teams are battling injuries, but Detroit is in better shape than Green Bay entering this matchup. The Lions are 4-2 against the spread at home this season, and they are simply the better football team here. Josh Jacobs is playing for Green Bay, but the former NFL rushing champion is banged up. I have some concerns about Detroit's secondary, but home field advantage and the Lions high-powered offense are too much for me to overlook. I like the Lions by 6+ on Thursday night.

All the Lions injuries have given me pause. They are getting beat up along the OL and across their front 7. They have run a gauntlet of games, and are due for some regression from the football gods. GB came into Motown on Thanksgiving last year and beat them. Pack have won 3 times in their last 5 trips there. Jordan Love playing his best football, Packers D can take the ball away and that young team surged late last season and is playoff proven. Lions RZ issues have flared back up lately. Not sure they are going to pressure Love as much as they'd like. As great as Dan Campbell is overing, he's just 1-3 ATS in his last 4 home NFC North games.

Amon Ra Saint Brown could potentially erupt in what looks like a very good matchup for him with a lot of factors working in his favor. First and foremost Saint Brown has a very healthy 26% target share in an elite offense making him capable of attaining this number in virtually any gamescript. Speaking of which, we're working with a 50+ point total and a competitive game where its hardly inconceivable the Lions are playing from behind, thus creating additional targets. Lastly, Jaire Alexander is out tonight (the Packers best cover corner). Saint Brown is expected to see plenty of slot corner Javon Bullard which is a matchup that Saint Brown should have a lot of success with.

Patrick is starting to find his footing and carve out a role in Detroit's high-powered offense. The former undrafted free agent has gone over this number in three consecutive games. Patrick likely only needs 1-2 catches for this to hit, which I expect him to get on TNF.

Josh Jacobs will be a focal point of the Packers offense tonight, facing a Lions defense that is missing multiple starting DT’s and LB’s. Nevertheless, this Lions front will still play tough, blitzing at one of the highest rates in the league. Detroit acquired DE Za’Darius Smith at the trade deadline and since Week 11, he leads the NFL in QB pressures. The Packers are stilling missing RG Jordan Morgan, and I expect Jordan Love to be forced to get the ball out quick. Jacobs should get his opportunities in the pass game against this blitz-heavy defense. Jacobs gone for 50+ receiving yards in 2 of his last 3, and has 3+ targets in 7/12 games this year.

Yes the Lions are 11-1 and have twice scored 50+ at Ford Field, but their games vs. NFC North foes are usually not that easy. Consider the 23-20 Thanksgiving escape vs. the Bears, two other non-covers vs. Chicago (including an outright loss) last season, the Pack winning at Detroit last Thanksgiving, and a 2-point nail-biter vs. the Vikings on October 20. The Nov.3 meeting vs. the Pack at Lambeau Field was also a slower-paced affair (24-14 Detroit), consistent with the Lions' NFC North pattern. The Packers can slow the pace if Jordan Love throws with accuracy and keeps the chains and clock moving, and also note Green Bay's 5-2-1 under mark its last six games. Play Packers-Lions Under

All-Pro cornerback Jaire Alexander is out for Green Bay, St. Brown is on track to record his third-straight 1,000-yard season. With left tackle Taylor Decker out for Detroit, I expect the Lions to lean a little more on their passing attack than they normally would. St. Brown went for 7 catches, 56 yards, and a touchdown when these teams played in Week 9. I expect him to go for 70+ on Thursday night.

With all the Detroit Lions injuries we see an abnormal point spread offering on the Detroit Lions. The covering machines are 9-3 ATS on the season, and an issue for Jordan Love has been his turnover issues against the Lions. He had three fumbles in their first matchup, as well as a pick six. Over their last two matchups he has three interceptions and four fumbles. Additionally, there is spread value on the Lions side based on the market flocking to the Packers stout 19-2 December record under Matt LeFleur since 2019.

The Lions are dealing with a number of injuries on the defensive side of the ball, and while the absences up the middle should make it easier for the Packers to run, Detroit should score plenty of points and force Jordan Love to hit some big plays. The Lions have given up passes of 40-plus yards in five games this year, but Love has hit them in all but two of his starts, with one of those the 49ers game where he only threw 17 passes. With his attempts line shaded Over 32.5, I like the opportunities we'll have to hit a big play to Christian Watson, or potential a catch-and-run by Jayden Reed.

Betting an Under in a Lions game will take some guts, but consider that Detroit is 5-2 to the Under in games with totals above 48 this season. Packers QB Jordan Love has had much less success against man coverage this season, which the Lions play at a league-high rate. The Lions will be without LT Taylor Decker, which could hinder their run game and allow Green Bay to get additional pressure. Both Green Bay and Detroit have Top-12 rush defenses. The Packers will remain without WR Romeo Doubs, and RG Jordan Morgan. This December division clash will have the feel of a playoff game, and will play to the Under.

I'm not sure I've bet against the Lions all year, but I think this is a solid spot to take the points. The Lions defensive injuries are adding up and when you combine those injuries with the fact that Jordan Love is healthy and will enjoy optimal playing conditions, I think taking the points is the play. The Lions are dangerous, but this is a division game with a Packers offense that may be ascending and a Lions defense that may be descending. It feels like the optimal time to finally fade arguably the best team in football. I'll note that a back door cover is certainly in play here.

If we push, we push, but I like the final injury report situation for the Lions a bit better than the Packers -- and Detroit is pretty clearly the better overall team regardless. The Lions are down three total starters on the offensive and defensive fronts but cornerbacks Carlton Davis and Emmanuel Moseley will play after both missed at least the Thanksgiving game. Green Bay is down Pro Bowl cornerback Jaire Alexander along with fellow starters at WR in Romeo Doubs (looked like he might make it back) and linebacker in Edgerrin Cooper. Detroit is 5-1 SU and ATS in the past six meetings after winning by 10 in Wisconsin earlier this year.

Reed is developing into one of the top young weapons (he reminds me of a smaller, but faster version of Deebo Samuel) in the NFL in his second pro season. The former Michigan State standout has finished well under this number in three straight games, but he did go for 113 yards the last time he played against Detroit. With Reed's big play ability, this is a number he can hit with one catch. With Josh Jacobs and Romeo Doubs both banged up, the opportunity for more targets/touches should be there for Reed on Thursday night.

Jordan Love threw for 273 yards in the first meeting and was not close to 100 percent healthy then but is now. Including that first Detroit matchup, he has blown by this in three of the past four despite playing outdoors in the elements at times. Obviously no worries about that here. The Lions are Top 5 against the run but bottom 8 in pass defense. Bears rookie Caleb Williams just had 256 yards on this unit. I tend to think this is going to be a shootout. Last year in Detroit, Love threw for 268 and 51 points were scored. Sounds right. And, yes, I did send the Lions franchise a thank-you Edible Arrangement this week for their role in getting Matt Eberflus fired.

Josh Jacobs was listed with a calf injury this week, but reports indicate he'll be full-go for Thursday night. He had 108 rushing-receiving yards in the first matchup. He has received 22-plus touches in three straight games, all Packers wins. Now he's facing a Lions' front seven that's been decimated by injury. This number will keep rising.

This total is over 90 in most shops and will continue to rise. The speed back on a fast track should get plenty of looks vs this GB defense. He has at least 4 catches in previous meetings with the Pack, and can take a screen to the house. Gibbs has 91 scrimmage yards or more in 9 of the last 11 games, and at least 76 in the other two; he's always around this. He averages 86 scrimmage yards in his career vs divisional foes. Gibbs is over 100 scrimmage yards in 4 of his last 5 home games.

Jacobs is at 90 scrimmage yards or more in 8 straight games and this total is at 92.5 in some other shops. By tomorrow it will be there everywhere. He is the rare back who already got the best of the Lions defense, rushing for 95 yards in just 13 carries a few weeks back and hitting 108 scrimmage yards. Detroit front 7 keeps losing critical players and this is a bad time to be facing a GB offense that is loaded with weapons. With Jordan Love being an INT machine and this being a raucous road environment, I figure Jacobs gets fed a ton to quiet them down and let the young QB settle in. And to set up play action shots later.

Initially I was leaning toward the Lions because of how much this line has moved from the lookahead. But Detroit is extremely banged-up in its front seven -- the full extent will become clear with Wednesday's game designations -- and Green Bay is uniquely suited to take advantage behind its power run game. In the second half of the Thanksgiving game, the depleted Lions' defense had no answer for Caleb Williams, Keenan Allen and DJ Moore. Jordan Love and his receiviers are on another level. Look for an entertaining shootout that goes to the wire and grab the points.

The Lions are 11-1 and 9-3 against the spread and face the Green Bay Packers that are 9-3 but only 6-6 against the spread. To me this is a gift line. You're saying that these teams are almost equal despite the games being in Detroit and that could be further from the truth. I think the Packers are 7 points better at home. Green Bay was getting two and a half at home against the Lions and now it's three in Detroit? And we know about the Lions with the No. 2 offensive team at 395 yards per game and the No. 1 scoring team at 31.9. The Lions moneyline because the price is too cheap.

Tucker Kraft has enjoyed a solid sophomore campaign but you could make the argument that some of his production has been a bit fluky. Kraft has a 7% first read target rate which indicates that he is largely an afterthought in the GB offense and certainly not a focal point. On top of that, he gets a brutal matchup against a Detroit defense that is not only first in EPA, EPA allowed per dropback, but also has surrendered the fewest yards to enemy Tight Ends, which is very impressive considering teams are often throwing against the Lions trying to play catch up.

I see shootout potential in this game and I expect Goff to rally after fumbling three times at home vs GB last Thanksgiving. He has hit this in 3 homes games vs GB at Detroit and has hit this in four straight home games overall. Detroit's defense is slipping some, and I expect OC Ben Johnson to try to throw to a lead and chase points throughout. Return of Sam LaPorta has the pass options fully robust.

The Lions won by 10 in Green Bay a month ago, but that was aided by a pick-six and this Lions defense is in a much worse spot now after suffering injury after injury. Jordan Love picked apart a Miami defense beset by injury on Thanksgiving, and the Packers have shown they can lean on the run when necessary as well. The Lions should be expected to keep rolling on offense, but with Jaire Alexander potentially back for the Packers, there's a higher chance of Jared Goff making a key mistake to cost Detroit the game. At the least, this should be a high-scoring game decided by 3-4 points, so I like getting the hook with the 'dog.

Both have a full week of prep time for this Thurs game, which should help the timing of both offenses. Both defenses dealing with some injuries and this has firework potential. Four of the last 6 games between these teams in Detroit produced 51 points or more. The Packers are over in 4 of their last 5 divisional road games and the Lions are over in 4 of their last 5 divisional home games. Dan Campbell has coached 10 divisional games at home and 6 of them produced at least 51 points. Both QBs are in great form. Both games between them last year produced at least 51 points.